NewlyRetired
Footballguy
go read the USMNT thread and look at my recent post. It may change your mind
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***Official 2022 World Cup Thread*** (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter gianmarco
- Start date
go read the USMNT thread and look at my recent post. It may change your mind
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
This was roughly the 1982 format if memory serves and yes it would be infinitely better than what the 3 team groups represent.
Never mind, forgot Japan is on 3 points.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
US Iran did 15.5 million viewers which is the second highest total behind US England at 20 million.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
I spent a week in cordoba. Didn’t go to a football game. I survived.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Possibly- just adds to the excitement.
Oof, that group L is... Well... So you're saying 2 teams would definitely advance from each group? Oooh boy...
I'm not sure I understand why 3-team groups would eliminate draws. Sure, I get that if all 3 games end in a draw, it makes it difficult to determine who moves on, but that's not really so different than the "if 6 games end in a draw" scenario we have now, is it?
The Z Machine
Footballguy
My wife suggested 8 groups of 6 with only the top 2 advancing. Lots if group stage games and the tournament would take longer but the cream would certainly rise to the top of those big groups.
tri-man 47
Footballguy
I walked in to teach an Auditing course on Tuesday that was scheduled to start right near the end of the US-Iran first half. Students already had laptops on, watching the game …in three different languages - a few in English, a couple in Spanish, and one in Japanese. What could I do? I called up the game on the classroom screen and we watched the end of the first half. I then taught for fifteen minutes before we all sat back and watched the second half. That left me ten minutes at the end of class to teach a little more.
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NewlyRetired
Footballguy
3 team groups, by any sporting definition, have to have a clear winner in each game.
since the number of teams in each group is odd, you give two of the three teams a MASSIVE advantage since when they play last they will know exactly what they need while the 3rd team is left helpless. This will lead to many possible issues of collusion.
It won't happen in every group but it will happen and even one case of collusion is one too many.
This is why we keep seeing the articles about FIFA using pk shoot outs in the group stage after 90 minutes, which is the only way to help combat collusion. But pk's will have their own inherent issues.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
While I hate the 3-team groups since everyone plays only 2 group games the round of 32 basically functions like the 3rd group game. That said the chance of big teams meeting way too early in the knock out format goes up - an upset like Saudi Arabia vs Argentina happening in a 3-team group knocking Argentina down to 2nd place in say Group L could ultimately be a punishment for a Portugal that comes in first in Group K. So suddenly you have Portugal dealing with an Argentina way too soon. Or imagine France stumbles and is 2nd in like group G and then two 1-0 countries are playing in Group H where the prize for the winner is to play France. Just way more scenarios where this happens with 16 groups of 3 :(
-QG
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Sporting wise this is excellent in terms of finding the best team. But the club teams might mutiny since the risk of injury increases. The clubs are the reason FIFA came up with the three team groups because it ensures players still play the same amount of games as they do now. It also would lead to many dead rubber games which is not good for entertainment.
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QuizGuy66
Footballguy
120 group games to be exact and 136 total games. That makes for a long tournament with a lot of New Zealand vs Burkina Faso.
12x4 (with 32 knock outs)
Has 72 group games and 104 total games
16x3 (with 32 knock outs)
Has 48 group games and 80 total games - this smaller footprint is the biggest reason they want to go this way
The real answer of course was to leave the current perfect format alone...
-QG
I guess that makes sense. 3-team groups are a bad idea for a variety of reasons, and this just adds to the list.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
To this day, people who are old enough remember the Disgrace of Gijon game. Read here if you are unfamiliar.
Disgrace of Gijón - Wikipedia
just picture what would happen if say the host US is caught helpless by this...the sport would be harmed in ways that it might never recover in the country
The below shows how ugly it got:
"This performance was widely deplored by all observers. West German ARD commentator Eberhard Stanjek at one point refused to commentate on the game any longer. Austrian commentator Robert Seeger bemoaned the spectacle, and asked viewers to turn off their television sets"
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I would think another possible detriment to 8x6 would be those last games that are meaningless for both teams, a la Argentina sitting on 12 points versus New Zealand sitting on 0 or NZ/Qatar with both teams sitting on 1 point.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Yes, dead rubber games would be abundant I agree and that is not good. The near perfect 8 groups of 4 has proven to minimize dead rubber games quite effectively.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
12 groups of 4 with the best 4 third place teams advancing would be similar to what they did when the field was 24 teams
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
While I can see people would rather avoid 3rd place teams advancing, since it is a bit unsporting to rank teams who did not face the same competition, I believe this is the best compromise as well. It means at most, only a small amount of players would play one extra game which maybe FIFA could get the clubs to accept.
And with the three hosts, hosting the extra games 12x4 creates should be no problem.
Zow
Footballguy
What are the scenarios for today?
This makes the most sense to me but probably adds the possibility of an extra game therefore understandably angering the clubs.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
I love Luis Suarez taking the Connor McGregor approach today when asked how he feels about his intentional handball that helped Ghana knocked out.
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NewlyRetired
Footballguy
This would result in 28 teams advancing. It needs to be 32. So this should be the top 8 3rd place teams I think.
titusbramble
Footballguy
You would think they would have to fix the scheduling by pots/seeding if they went 8x6. If you have the match ordering go as follows (just an example):
1 - 6,5,2,3,4
2 - 5,4,1,6,3
3 - 4,6,5,1,2
4 - 3,2,6,5,1
5 - 2,1,3,4,6
6 - 1,3,4,2,5
You can front-load most of the one-sided games and have those towards the back end be more likely to be meaningful. Of course, you'll still get the occasional situation where a team is hugely over/underperforming with respect to their rankings (which are known to be terrible and favour certain confederations in any case), but that can't necessarily be helped. Of course, the correct situation is to not prioritise money over sporting quality/integrity and stick at 32 which we know works, but FIFA I guess.
We also know that once you expand it, the chances of contracting it back down once it's shown not to work are basically zero, as nobody outside of UEFA/CONMEBOL would vote for it, Even in other sports, I can only think of one situation where a tournament has reduced in terms of numbers of participants (cricket), but that has been universally criticised by everyone outside of the ICC who want to make money rather than develop the sport
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Hazard dropped
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Here is Group E https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fi2ZAcLVQAEV_-E?format=jpg&name=large
Here is Group F https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FinagN0XwAUkg8Z?format=jpg&name=large
we need a way to easily find Quizguy's excellent scenario posts. They are hard to locate in thread since this thread is extremely busy.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
The scenarios are so broad, it probably comes down to personal taste. I will probably flip back and forth depending on the game states.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
To this day, people who are old enough remember the Disgrace of Gijon game. Read here if you are unfamiliar.
Disgrace of Gijón - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
just picture what would happen if say the host US is caught helpless by this...the sport would be harmed in ways that it might never recover in the country
The below shows how ugly it got:
"This performance was widely deplored by all observers. West German ARD commentator Eberhard Stanjek at one point refused to commentate on the game any longer. Austrian commentator Robert Seeger bemoaned the spectacle, and asked viewers to turn off their television sets"
And West Germany almost won the tournament.
Zow
Footballguy
Pretty cool that all the games matter.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
BumpOkay gang are you ready?
Group E scenarios......
Spain advances with a win or draw OR a loss AND...
the Spain loss is by less than 13 goals and CRC/GER draw
OR
the Spain loss is by 14 and CRC/GER draw AND CRC doesn't outscore Spain by 8+ goals)
OR
Germany wins and combined margin of the Spain loss and Germany win is less than 8
OR
Germany wins and combined margin of the Spain loss and Germany win is exactly 8 and Germany doesn't outscore Spain by 6+
OR
Germany wins and combined margin of the Spain loss and Germany win is exactly 8 and Germany outscores Spain by exactly 6 and Spain has superiors fair play score (currently ESP -1, GER -3)
OR
Germany wins and combined margin of the Spain loss and Germany win is exactly 8 and Germany outscores Spain by exactly 6 and Spain and Germany have same fair play score and Spain draws the lucky ping pong ball.
Spain is out with a loss and a Costa Rica win - which would be pretty hilarious tbh.
----------
Japan advances with a win OR....
a Draw and GER/CRC draw
OR
a Draw and GER win by exactly 1 goal and Japan scores at least as many goals as Germany does.
Japan is out with a loss
----------
Costa Rica advances with a win OR....
a Draw and Spain loses by 14 or more goals
OR
a Draw and Spain loses by exactly 13 goals and Costa Rica outscores Spain by 8 or more goals
Costa Rica is out with a loss
----------
Germany advances with a win AND...
A Japan loss
OR
JPN/ESP draw and Germany wins by 2 or more goals
OR
JPN/ESP draw and Germany win by 1 goal and Germany outscores Japan
OR
Spain loses and the combined margin of the Germany win and Spain loss is 9+ goals
OR
Spain loses and the combined margin of the Germany win and Spain loss is exactly 8 goals and Germany outscores Spain by 7 or more goals
OR
Spain loses and the combined margin of the Germany win and Spain loss is exactly 8 goals and Germany outscores spain by exactly 6 goals and Germany has a better fair play record (currently Spain -1, Germany -3)
OR
Spain loses and the combined margin of the Germany win and Spain loss is exactly 8 goals and Germany outscores spain by exactly 6 goals and Germany and Spain have the same fair play record and Germany draws the lucky ping pong ball.
Germany is out with a loss or draw
So there you go! That Germany goal was very helpful for Costa Rica as it eliminated the possibility of them getting eliminated with 6 points.
-QG
-QG
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
BumpGroup F Scenarios
Croatia advances with a win or draw OR....
a loss and a Morocco loss where the Croatia losing margin is the same or less than the Morocco losing margin
OR
a loss and a Morocco loss where the Croatia losing margin is exactly 1 more than the Morocco losing margin and Morocco doesn't outscore Croatia by 2 or more
OR
a loss and a Morocco loss where the Croatia losing margin is exactly 1 more than the Morocco losing margin and Morocco outscores Croatia by exactly 2 and Croatia has a better fair play record (currently Croatia -2, Morocco -2)
OR
a loss and a Morocco loss where the Croatia losing margin is exactly 1 more than the Morocco losing margin and Morocco outscores Croatia by exactly 2 and Croatia and Morocco are tied in fair play record and Croatia's lucky ping pong ball is selected
-----------
Morocco advances with a win or draw OR....
a loss and a Belgium loss
OR
a loss by 1 or 2 goals and a Belgium draw
OR
a loss by exactly 3 goals and a Belgium draw and Belgium doesn't outscore Morocco by 2 or more
OR
a loss and a Croatia loss where Croatia loss margin is 2 or more goals more than the Morocco loss margin
OR
a loss and a Croatia loss where the Croatia losing margin is exactly 1 more than the Morocco losing margin and Morocco outscores Croatia by 3 or more
OR
a loss and a Croatia loss where the Croatia losing margin is exactly 1 more than the Morocco losing margin and Morocco outscores Croatia by exactly 2 and Morocco has a better fair play record (currently Croatia -2, Morocco -2)
OR
a loss and a Croatia loss where the Croatia losing margin is exactly 1 more than the Morocco losing margin and Morocco outscores Croatia by exactly 2 and Morocco and Croatia are tied in fair play record and Morocco's lucky ping pong ball is selected
-----------
Belgium advances with a win OR....
a draw and a Morocco loss by 4 or more goals
OR
a draw and a Morocco loss by exactly 3 goals and Belgium outscores Morocco by 2 or more goals
Belgium is eliminated with a loss
-----------
Canada - well they got the f and are eliminated
-QG
-QG
TripleThreat
Footballguy
Belgium need a win so I’ll start with that I think.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Good call. I'm also part Croatian so that one it is.
There is a very large area of Croatian descent here in KC. It's in the area where I grew up and went to grade school. Needless to say the club at the church has hosted World Cup watch parties for the last few World Cups. I was there for the final four years ago.
Let's just say there is a large group of people drinking heavily and watching that match as we speak here in KC.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Damn, I was hoping Zigg would get a chance to see his team get at least a point today
My math says a Morocco win simplifies this to "Belgium needs a win and Croatia needs a draw, the end". Right?
TripleThreat
Footballguy
That sounds like a good time.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Morocco keeps it up the watch decision is easy. Basically it means Croatia has a 0.5 goal over Belgium in that game
While it is a tad early to put Morocco in if it keeps up this way and they really pour it on the Belgium/Croatia survivor is likely the team that ends up in the US half of the bracket
-QG
While it is a tad early to put Morocco in if it keeps up this way and they really pour it on the Belgium/Croatia survivor is likely the team that ends up in the US half of the bracket
-QG
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
I am not sure Canada could have played that any worse. Dear god that was a cluster ****.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Both Morocco and Croatia are through with a win or a draw, right?
And Belgium only goes through with a win?
And Belgium only goes through with a win?
TripleThreat
Footballguy
Taking forever for this VAR
TripleThreat
Footballguy
Take a look at QG post. There’s. A lot
