Judge Smails
Footballguy
Don't see that OTB Lifer has started a thread yet this year. Bunch of us talk horses in another thread but this should have it's own as many recreational people will lay down a few nickels on the Derby. By the way - if you've never been it's a bucket list trip if you do it right. Time of our life 2 years ago.
OK - let's start with the throwouts to narrow the contenders. Of the 20 starters I have 12 complete throwouts and 3 others I'm on the fence on. These horses are either too slow, wrong style, backed up in their last, etc.
Dornoch
Mystik Dan
Catalytic
TO Password
Track Phantom
West Saratoga
Domestic Product
Grand Mo the First
Resilience
Society Man
Epic Ride
Stronghold (never even ran a 90 Beyer and very weak year for California)
That's 12 that I'm totally confident won't find any part of the superfecta. Gets you to 8. The 3 I'm on the fence are and will only use lightly:
Just a Touch - Sierra Leone blew by him at 1 1/8 miles and going another 1/8 doesn't bode well. Only way he sticks around is if some of the other speed doesn't get out there. Likely to get cooked by Fierceness. Possible to get a minor award but doubt it. He was all out and don't see him repeating.
Forever Young - any horse that's 5-5 at longer distance and has Sunday Silence/Deep Impact blood is hard to throw out. Trying the Japan/Dubai leap which hasn't worked yet and I'm not blown away by his works. On a few saver tickets at most
Endlessly - this one is a bit more interesting to me. 5 out of 6 and he did OK in Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf from a wide post. Loss by 3 1/2 which is not disgraceful. All other races he closed with a rush. The issue? All on turf or synthetic. Normally that would be a toss for me. And Oscar Performance/Kitten's Joy/Langfur screams turf. But he's working very well on the dirt (at least by times, I'll have to read workout reports to see if he did it easily, got over the ground, etc.). Often these horses can't deal with dirt kickback so it's a question mark. Could run big or last. But he's not an auto toss for me to get a piece.
That leaves 5 to discuss in all slots:
Fierceness - if he breaks clean on the outside and rates a bit he could air, especially if Sierra Leone has any traffic trouble which is likely. If you're taking a big swing though you could toss him on a few tickets, hope he breaks poorly and spits the bit. He's done that twice already. So he's not a machine. Things have to go his way.
Sierra Leone - Logical winner if Fierceness doesn't fire. Will relish the 1 1/4, always closes with a rush. Came from dead last like a freight train in the Blue Grass. Race was a bit of a set up as so many horses went early. Still, should be plenty of pace in this one and If Tyler gets a good trip he will be a menace in the stretch
Catching Freedom - Benefit of having Prat. Never run a bad one. Both losses had legitimate issues, including in tight and getting stymied at the 16th pole. Has the right finishing style and was only 1 1/4 lengths behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star - and he had trouble. Fast enough with a 97 Beyer. If he gets a great trip and Fierceness or Sierra Leone don't he could win. Heck - he might win anyway. Loved the way he calmly rated in last and then just went wide and inhaled em. Best value in the field at 8-1 ML.
Just Steel - can't see him winning but he'll be underneath in all slots for me. Grinder who has tactical speed and can finish a bit as shown vs. Muth in the Arkansas Derby. I like that no horses passed him in the stretch and he was gaining a bit on Muth through the stretch. Lukas has a foundation in him and knows how to get horses ready for the Derby. Will have to avoid getting pinballed at the start from the 6 hole and get in good position. If he does I think he's in the super and will bet him hard in exactas/tri's. Just hope K. Asmussen can be poised in this huge of a race.
Honor Marie - has run 3 good races at CD. Only bad race in the slop in the Risen Star. Only got beat a length to Catching Freedom in the LA Derby. He got a great trip and was all out as the speed died so don't love him. He's an underneath play for me only. Not sure if Curtis can get it done as a jockey in this big of a race but I bet the horse - less so the jockey. But these are low percentage connections so at least you'll get a big price.
In summary - these 5 will be on all my tickets. I really think only Fierceness, Sierra Leone or Catching Freedom can win the race unless Forever Young overcomes all obstacles and delivers. I don't think Fierceness nor Sierra Leone will be value enough for me to play straight. Not going to bet either at current 5/2-3/1. If Catching Freedom stays anywhere near 8-1 he will be a win bet. Maybe a saver only on Forever Young as a backup, but he won't be a key play. Otherwise I'll just hone in on verticals with my top 3 in the win slot and them plus Just Steel for sure and less Honor Marie, Just a Touch, Endlessly and maybe Forever Young also underneath in exactas, tri's and supers.
Looking forward to other opinions from my handicapping amigos. We've hit this several times - let's go!
OK - let's start with the throwouts to narrow the contenders. Of the 20 starters I have 12 complete throwouts and 3 others I'm on the fence on. These horses are either too slow, wrong style, backed up in their last, etc.
Dornoch
Mystik Dan
Catalytic
TO Password
Track Phantom
West Saratoga
Domestic Product
Grand Mo the First
Resilience
Society Man
Epic Ride
Stronghold (never even ran a 90 Beyer and very weak year for California)
That's 12 that I'm totally confident won't find any part of the superfecta. Gets you to 8. The 3 I'm on the fence are and will only use lightly:
Just a Touch - Sierra Leone blew by him at 1 1/8 miles and going another 1/8 doesn't bode well. Only way he sticks around is if some of the other speed doesn't get out there. Likely to get cooked by Fierceness. Possible to get a minor award but doubt it. He was all out and don't see him repeating.
Forever Young - any horse that's 5-5 at longer distance and has Sunday Silence/Deep Impact blood is hard to throw out. Trying the Japan/Dubai leap which hasn't worked yet and I'm not blown away by his works. On a few saver tickets at most
Endlessly - this one is a bit more interesting to me. 5 out of 6 and he did OK in Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf from a wide post. Loss by 3 1/2 which is not disgraceful. All other races he closed with a rush. The issue? All on turf or synthetic. Normally that would be a toss for me. And Oscar Performance/Kitten's Joy/Langfur screams turf. But he's working very well on the dirt (at least by times, I'll have to read workout reports to see if he did it easily, got over the ground, etc.). Often these horses can't deal with dirt kickback so it's a question mark. Could run big or last. But he's not an auto toss for me to get a piece.
That leaves 5 to discuss in all slots:
Fierceness - if he breaks clean on the outside and rates a bit he could air, especially if Sierra Leone has any traffic trouble which is likely. If you're taking a big swing though you could toss him on a few tickets, hope he breaks poorly and spits the bit. He's done that twice already. So he's not a machine. Things have to go his way.
Sierra Leone - Logical winner if Fierceness doesn't fire. Will relish the 1 1/4, always closes with a rush. Came from dead last like a freight train in the Blue Grass. Race was a bit of a set up as so many horses went early. Still, should be plenty of pace in this one and If Tyler gets a good trip he will be a menace in the stretch
Catching Freedom - Benefit of having Prat. Never run a bad one. Both losses had legitimate issues, including in tight and getting stymied at the 16th pole. Has the right finishing style and was only 1 1/4 lengths behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star - and he had trouble. Fast enough with a 97 Beyer. If he gets a great trip and Fierceness or Sierra Leone don't he could win. Heck - he might win anyway. Loved the way he calmly rated in last and then just went wide and inhaled em. Best value in the field at 8-1 ML.
Just Steel - can't see him winning but he'll be underneath in all slots for me. Grinder who has tactical speed and can finish a bit as shown vs. Muth in the Arkansas Derby. I like that no horses passed him in the stretch and he was gaining a bit on Muth through the stretch. Lukas has a foundation in him and knows how to get horses ready for the Derby. Will have to avoid getting pinballed at the start from the 6 hole and get in good position. If he does I think he's in the super and will bet him hard in exactas/tri's. Just hope K. Asmussen can be poised in this huge of a race.
Honor Marie - has run 3 good races at CD. Only bad race in the slop in the Risen Star. Only got beat a length to Catching Freedom in the LA Derby. He got a great trip and was all out as the speed died so don't love him. He's an underneath play for me only. Not sure if Curtis can get it done as a jockey in this big of a race but I bet the horse - less so the jockey. But these are low percentage connections so at least you'll get a big price.
In summary - these 5 will be on all my tickets. I really think only Fierceness, Sierra Leone or Catching Freedom can win the race unless Forever Young overcomes all obstacles and delivers. I don't think Fierceness nor Sierra Leone will be value enough for me to play straight. Not going to bet either at current 5/2-3/1. If Catching Freedom stays anywhere near 8-1 he will be a win bet. Maybe a saver only on Forever Young as a backup, but he won't be a key play. Otherwise I'll just hone in on verticals with my top 3 in the win slot and them plus Just Steel for sure and less Honor Marie, Just a Touch, Endlessly and maybe Forever Young also underneath in exactas, tri's and supers.
Looking forward to other opinions from my handicapping amigos. We've hit this several times - let's go!