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Official 2025 Kentucky Derby thread - Sovereignty 1, Journalism 1 - on to the Belmont! (3 Viewers)

Had a lousy $5 saver exacta. I think it holds up as the 1 was causing the issue. Still lost money. 8 had no excuse. Would have really cashed if Gosger ran 3rd but oh well.
 
Might make some money here. I hope I have $5 exacta $0.50 Tri and $0.10 super if that pays more than $100 I’m happy

Would have been much happier if the 9 held on
 
Gosger improved a ton. Didn't see that type of race out of him. Saez rode the perfect race. Irad got off of him to ride River Thames - one of the reasons I didn't like him more. Glad Journalism got his - amazing to win after almost getting knocked sideways.
 
Once a year chance to bet Arabians. I think after last year I said I'd never do this again.

WPS 1 Ex box 1,6,9
 
Judge Smails said:
Gosger improved a ton. Didn't see that type of race out of him. Saez rode the perfect race. Irad got off of him to ride River Thames - one of the reasons I didn't like him more. Glad Journalism got his - amazing to win after almost getting knocked sideways.
Click to expand...
Irad committed to ride River Thames prior.
 
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Shaping up to be likely a 6 horse field in the Belmont at Gosger connections bow out. Small but might field - pretty top heavy.

Sovereignty
Journalism
Baeza
Rodriguez
Heart of Honor
Hill Road

On paper the top 3 dominate. The wrinkle for this one will be pace. No way they are flying early like the Derby and Preakness, so the closers will not get the same set up. They'll have to lay closer and the question is will they have the same kick. I do think Journalism and Baeza are pretty push button so they'll adapt. Sovereignty isn't quite as nifty but has laid close before and still finished. Those 3 stand out. Wouldn't be surprised to see Journalism at 3/2, Sovereignty at 5/2 and Baeza at 3-1. If Rodriguez gets loose and slows them to a crawl he could be a huge threat. Would like him more at the 1 1/2 vs 1 1/4 as better chance to put them to sleep. Probably 5-1. Other 2 double digits. Hope they stay healthy and the field doesn't get shorter. Should be a thrilling race.
 
I think this is going (should be) a great race to watch, guessing Sovereignty and Journalism duke it out down the stretch. Not a great race to bet though. The Graveyard of Champions moniker can rest easy this race.
 
Had a $20 free bet left from Preakness promo that expired tomorrow

Just did a random $10 ex box at CD came in with a 9-2 over a 7-5 so made a few bucks
 
Not sure why I just thought of this, but anyway...

Despite being a pretty big horse racing fan, I don't go to the track often. As far as I can remember, I've only been to one Grade 1 race - the 1980 Woodward Stakes. I was 10 years old and because I was so interested in racing, my mother would bring me to the track once or twice a year, despite her having no interest in racing, in any other sport, or in any form of gambling. However, on that day, I think it was my grandmother who brought me...who, if possible, had even less interest in sports or gambling than my mother.

Anyway, the 1980 Woodward was a historical race for a couple of reasons. First of all, it was the final race of Spectacular Bid's career. I think most long-time fans would agree that there hasn't been an American horse since then who has equaled Spectacular Bid's career. The few who maybe had that kind of brilliance simply haven't raced enough to have careers that stacked up against his. So in the 45 years since that race, there hasn't been another race where one could see such a good racehorse.

The second reason the race was historical is that it was (at least, as of a few years ago) the last time that a race had only one horse entered. There have been a few races since then where only one horse ran, but I believe that in those cases, others were vet scratches immediately before the race. In the 1980 Woodward, there simply wasn't anyone else entered, despite very generous prize money for second place. If I'm remembering correctly, there was a NY-based horse named Winter's Tale who was supposed to be the main competition in the race, but he was injured before entries were submitted.

Despite the lack of competition, Spectacular Bid ran the mile and a quarter in 2:02 and 2/5 with the crowd booing the entire way around the track, because they were pissed off that there was no betting on the race.
 
Will handicap it today. Only 4 horses matter at all in this one to me. The big 3 coming back from the Derby and Rodríguez. The rest are cooked IMO. The key to this race IMO is Baeza. I trust Prat to place the horse and I think he gets first jump on Rodriguez. Sort of like his move in the SA Derby. Then Journalism and Sovereignty come. Those 2 are sorta push button so assuming they have good trips have time to run them down. Agree it’s likely to be a great race to watch and maybe not so much to bet. Hard to see anything cold here. It’s who out kicks who.
 
OK - have handicapped the Belmont. 4 has come down to 3 for me. It's the top 3 from the Derby contesting the top 2 slots. Tossing Rodriguez. He's coming off a 2 month layoff after the injury and he simply can't be as fit as the top 3. Crudo should press him up front and I expect both to fold. So, my tosses are Rodriguez, Crudo, Uncaged and Heart of Honor. I give Hill Road a small chance to finish 3rd only if one of the top 3 don't fire. If that happens I expect it to be Journalism.

My key horse is Baeza and I'm sticking to it. I think he's going to run a MONSTER race. We'll see if it's good enough. I think he gets the perfect trip probably laying 3rd and makes the first move with Journalism and Sovereignty behind him. I love love love John Shirreffs when he has good horses. Can get them ready with the best of them. Beyer has improved every race so has most upside. 5 week layoff. Has sat close in most races. But when way back in the Derby breaking from the 19th hole he was inarguably finishing better than Journalism, blowing past him a step after the wire. Might have been the mud but I don't think so. This is a $1.2M horse out of McKinzie, who ran a monster race at Saratoga himself to win the Whitney. Should love the surface and worked well. Always meant to be a really good horse. I just don't see a downside and I trust Prat more than any jockey in this race to get position.

I loved Sovereignty in the Derby as you all know and scored big. There were reasons for that, especially his love of Churchill Downs as a 2 year old in the Street Sense. Churchill is an ultimate horse for course track. We don't know how much Sovereignty likes Saratoga. His only race off the board was there, though I'm prone to give him a pass since it was his first start, was a sprint, and even though he finished 4th he was finishing fast. He'll close, but I don't expect quite the same explosive move that he made at CD. Different track and different pace set up. He'll dig in and grind through the stretch. Benefit is Mott has him rested and working well. Most likely exacta partner with Baeza IMO.

Journalism is a beast but there are question marks to me. Lots of great horses who ran 1-2 in the Derby/Preakness struggle in the Belmont. 3 races in 5 weeks is just a lot. For as great of a race he ran in the Preakness, his Beyer did drop to 98. He did finish super strong and appears to be the best horse in the class. Just don't know if he will be at his best this Saturday and whether he can overcome a rested Baeza and Sovereignty. As fast as he finished in the Preakness I'm going against the grain and believe he may stall in the stretch this time. Could be wrong.

I'm planning to bet $200 to win on Baeza and $100 exacta boxes Baeza to both Sovereignty and Journalism. I will play $25 tri's with Sovereignty/Journalism/Baeza in the top spots first and second with Hill Road solo in 3rd. Not going to bother with the top 3 all in the tri as it would pay squat. So I'll take a little shot with Hill Road in 3rd to try and score. No supers for me in this one. So $700 all-in

Baeza
Sovereignty
Journalism
Hill Road

Look forward to other FBG opinions. Good luck!
 
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Well, this got interesting. Initially I was bummed because Baeza got hammered and was 2-1 in early wagering along with Journalism. Now somebody dropped $200K to win on Journalism and he’s 4/5. That’s what I want. Baeza is 7/2 and Sovereignty is 5-1 😳. Wow. Now I’m interested again. Baeza is a bet at 3-1 or higher to me. But no way Sovereignty should be anywhere close to 5-1. Could easily win this. Derby winner getting zero respect. I don’t understand that at all. People making too big of a deal of Journalism’s late move in a weak Preakness field. I’m more afraid of Sovereignty beating Baeza than I am Journalism. If I had to bet I think Journalism goes off at 8/5. Baeza 7/2. Sovereignty just a tick behind. Maybe 4-1 but probably 7/2 as well. I’m going to check exotic pools to see what exactas pay. But Baeza at 7/2 and Sovereignty at 4-1 or so are very good win bets. If Journalism beats me so be it.
 
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I think the wild card in this race is Rodriguez. I have no idea how he will do, but the race sets up well for him. No speed to his inside, and only Crudo will challenge for the early lead. I think Crudo will settle into 2nd, and if the opening fractions aren't to taxing then this horse could be around at the end.
A lot of question marks about health, long layoff, distance, etc., but if Baffert feels he's ready...

I am including him in the exotics.
 
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