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Official 2025 Kentucky Derby thread - Sovereignty got it done - on to the Preakness! (1 Viewer)

No huge opinion here. Trying to find horses who will like some give in the ground. So far have #8 to win, as Saez has been hot. Exacta box 8-10 and then did smaller boxes 7 with both of those.
 
alright well I've dumped all my bets in. There's a certain horse I left out (a bomber) that I hope doesn't bite me but can't bet 'em all (and I am lazy and just box em all up when I bet). Actually heck with it I threw a show bet on that horse and nothing else though.

Anyway first we got the gray bets:
$1 ex box 3-17-19 $6
$.50 tri box 3-17-19 $3
$5 win on 17

and everything else
$2 win on 5
$1 ex box 3-5-8-17-18 $20
$0.50 tri box 3-5-8-17-18 $30
$2 show on 16

so $68 about to be lost 🐴

Good luck everyone!
-QG
 
Obviously all about BAEZA with that future bet for me, but exotics could also make the day. No need to post exactas, you can see where I lean with those top 4. And forget the super, it's out of control, lol. Good luck to all!

Tri Magnifico!

7, 8, 17, 21
3, 5, 7, 8, 17, 21
3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 14, 17, 18, 21
 
$20 oaks/Derby double. $200 win on Sovereignty. $20 exacta box Sovereignty/Journalism. $1 tri Sovereignty, Journalism, Baeza. $1 super Sovereingty, Journalism, Baeza, Flying Gambit

Honestly sort of shocked that the tri and super paid so low ($1600 with those odds in the super?) but it was logical so can't be disappointed. Handicapping was on point and I'm most happy about that. Hope you all hit! On to the Preakness. Edited - actually had the super twice. Just checked online and my account was way over and I had the same super that I bet on the OTB. $6,413 total
 
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Judge Smails said:
$20 oaks/Derby double. $200 win on Sovereignty. $20 exacta box Sovereignty/Journalism. $1 tri Sovereignty, Journalism, Baeza. $1 super Sovereingty, Journalism, Baeza, Flying Gambit

Honestly sort of shocked that the tri and super paid so low ($1600 with those odds in the super?) but it was logical so can't be disappointed. Handicapping was on point and I'm most happy about that. Hope you all hit! On to the Preakness. Edited - actually had the super twice. Just checked online and my account was way over and I had the same super that I bet on the OTB. $6,413 total
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nice work on the super.
 
Chaz McNulty said:
I think Final Gambit may be one to watch if he skips the Preakness and goes in the Belmont. Rewatched the race and he didn't have a good trip. Way behind. Was coming on strong until he got pushed out by Baeza. Looked like he had some left in the tank. Still got 4th.
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Good call. Have to rewatch the race. He was my wild card. Had him in all 4 spots. I think all 4 horses are live the rest of the TC. Final Gambit should skip the Derby, but I wouldn't be surprised if the first 3 take a shot at the Preakness. Don't see why they wouldn't as Journalism and Baeza may not love the 1 1/2 mile Belmont. Best shot may be in the Preakness.
 
strange here with the time difference….but, did some work and wound up hard debating sandman and sovereignty to win. i just couldn’t get past sandman’s 0-3 at CD and how he kept veering in his races. my family always bets so i got their horses early and made my bets. i decided $50 win sovereignty and $1 tri box of journalism, sov, sand, baeza and the japanese horse that went off 8-1. pretty happy to see the results here this morning, cashed about $700. it’s just so complicated trying to bet.
 
if you watch the twinspires telecast, you get a much better view of the horses than the NBC cast fyi. i watched alvarado’s ride and he couldn’t have gotten a better trip it seems. outside gates had no interference, like the 2 wiping out half the field. sov got a space towards the rail with no one on his outside for 1/2-3/4 mile. when horses started to back up, alvarado was able to get sov outside and luckily he wound up behind journalism, who looked like he was working hard at the mile mark. it almost looked like a harness race where sov bounced off the cover of journalism and went by him. baeza almost had journalism for 2nd.
 
Chemical X said:
if you watch the twinspires telecast, you get a much better view of the horses than the NBC cast fyi. i watched alvarado’s ride and he couldn’t have gotten a better trip it seems. outside gates had no interference, like the 2 wiping out half the field. sov got a space towards the rail with no one on his outside for 1/2-3/4 mile. when horses started to back up, alvarado was able to get sov outside and luckily he wound up behind journalism, who looked like he was working hard at the mile mark. it almost looked like a harness race where sov bounced off the cover of journalism and went by him. baeza almost had journalism for 2nd.
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Based on this he seems like a bet against in the Preakness. When the trainer was interviewed after the race he seemed almost resigned to the fact that he would be forced to race him back in the Preakness. Everyone else can do what they really want to do with their horses.
 
Leroy Hoard said:
Chemical X said:
if you watch the twinspires telecast, you get a much better view of the horses than the NBC cast fyi. i watched alvarado’s ride and he couldn’t have gotten a better trip it seems. outside gates had no interference, like the 2 wiping out half the field. sov got a space towards the rail with no one on his outside for 1/2-3/4 mile. when horses started to back up, alvarado was able to get sov outside and luckily he wound up behind journalism, who looked like he was working hard at the mile mark. it almost looked like a harness race where sov bounced off the cover of journalism and went by him. baeza almost had journalism for 2nd.
Click to expand...
Based on this he seems like a bet against in the Preakness. When the trainer was interviewed after the race he seemed almost resigned to the fact that he would be forced to race him back in the Preakness. Everyone else can do what they really want to do with their horses.
Click to expand...
i hate hate the preakness. comes up fast and the track always has a crazy speed bias, which works against closers. some oinker gets the lead, pace is nominal, then goes coast to coast. i wish they would change the racing schedule a bit. heck, even golf moved the pga forward and adjusted.
 
Chemical X said:
if you watch the twinspires telecast, you get a much better view of the horses than the NBC cast fyi. i watched alvarado’s ride and he couldn’t have gotten a better trip it seems. outside gates had no interference, like the 2 wiping out half the field. sov got a space towards the rail with no one on his outside for 1/2-3/4 mile. when horses started to back up, alvarado was able to get sov outside and luckily he wound up behind journalism, who looked like he was working hard at the mile mark. it almost looked like a harness race where sov bounced off the cover of journalism and went by him. baeza almost had journalism for 2nd.
Click to expand...
Baeza flew by him on the gallop out. I know the exacta was 3X if Baeza would have gotten second, have to think the tri and super woulda been a lot higher too. Oh well.
 
Sovereignty may run the Preakness, but Rodriguez probably best suited for that race. Like Clever Again in that race too.

Belmont will be at Saratoga again this year. Not exactly sure what that means for the race, but last year some speed finished well there.
 
-fish- said:
Sovereignty may run the Preakness, but Rodriguez probably best suited for that race. Like Clever Again in that race too.

Belmont will be at Saratoga again this year. Not exactly sure what that means for the race, but last year some speed finished well there.
Click to expand...
is belmont still being renovated?
 
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