Now that we have post positions it's time to start the analysis. I'll be watching all the key preps, then start with eliminating the non-contenders. Usually you can eliminate 10-14 of the runners which makes it much easier to focus on the real contenders. I don't think any of my throwouts in the last 5 years have hit the board other than Rich Strike. I was there that year, had a $200 exacta box with Epicenter and Zandon, thought they were home free. Then Rich Strike breaking from the outside post runs like he had 15 buzzers on him through the stretch. Still have never seen anything like it. Oh well. Back to 2025.
At first look there's a lot of speed in the race. Citizen Bull is a Baffert breaking from the rail. If (big if) he does break he has one way to go. And with all the speed outside him he's a toss for me. Neoequos right next to him is also lesser speed. Toss. American Promise only runs well on the lead for Lukas. Toss. Grande wants to run up front but couldn't keep up with Rodriguez. Will get some play with Pletcher/Repole but a toss for me. East Avenue has never shown the ability to rate. Got caught at 1 1/8 and doesn't look like he will have much in the lane at 1 1/4. Respect Walsh but he's a toss. Render Judgement just has zero style. Just runs in place and doesn't pass anybody. Toss. Owen Almighty weak speed from the outside. Toss.
So there's 7 tosses for me just due to style. Haven't completely thrown out Rodriquez due to style - more on him later. Think he's the only speed horse who may get the distance. Chunk of Gold is slow with weak connections. Toss. Coal Battle looks completely over the top and got scorched going 1 1/8. Connections just happy to be there. Toss. Flying Mohawk highest Beyer is 84. Never raced on dirt. Toss. Publisher is still a maiden with 2 weak races at CD. Will get some play with Irad/Asmussen but c'mon - a bunch of 2nds/3rds/4ths is not a recipe for a Derby winner. So that's 11 that I feel pretty comfortable tossing. I'll focus on the other 10 (counting Baeza as AE).
Journalism is a deserving favorite though the price will be too short. Will get a better pace to close in to and should be finishing at 1 1/4. He sort of grinds down horses in the lane but doesn't have that eye popping turn of foot. Rispoli also a question mark in the big dance. And he's never traveled out of CA. Contender, but some red flags. Burnham Square is fast enough, versatile, has won up close and flying off of it. Has run well at CD, had two 59 breezing works there and gets Brian Hernandez who knows CD inside out. Real contender for me. Sovereignty is a really interesting horse to me. Has the perfect style for the race and he was coming down the lane in the Florida Derby. He's traveled well to NY, KY and FL. What I love is that he aired in the Street Sense at CD, winning by 5 going away. Came back with a great work. Obviously loves the track. Mott/Alvarado. Will be a solid price. Sandman is a $1.2M purchase, came flying going 1 1/8M in the Arkansas Derby and won going away. The problem? His 3 worst races BY FAR were at Churchill Downs, a true horse for course place. He'll get played and will get the set up he needs, but he's closer to a toss than a play for me based on the CD record alone. Tiztastic is similar. Much improved race at FG with a style that could threaten. But other than that he has a bunch of 2nd's, 3rd's and 5th's other than 2 turf wins at KD. Lost by 4 and 5 lengths at CD. Never beat a good horse and outside of the last he can't get it done in G2's and 3's. Almost a toss for me but the last race was impressive and he came back with 2 good works at CD. If he's any good Rosario will have him finishing. Smith is on record saying "come and catch me with" with Rodriquez. Always thought of as a lesser Baffert and the fact they sent him to the Wood says as much. Caught a soft field/pace. Won't get the same in the KD. Respect Smith but don't see him getting the trip or 1 1/4 miles with Cherokee Run blood on the underside. He's still likely a toss for me but what's intriguing is how strong he's looking galloping out. Means he may actually get 1 1/4, bloodlines aside. Not impossible. Baeza is a little interesting to me if he gets in. Really impressive race in the SA Derby as the likely favorite Journalism was all out to beat him. Think a son of McKinzie with a Street Sense bloodline will like CD? Me too. Will have a tough post if he gets in, though if Rich Strike can do it others can too. A Japanese horse is going to win this sooner rather than later. They are dominating internationally and we saw how close Forever Young came last year. This isn't that tough of a Derby field IMO so this could be the year. Luxor Cafe is the better horse over Admire Daytona (beat him twice), but wouldn't absolutely shock me to see both in the Superfecta. Main knock on Luxor Cafe is he hasn't shipped outside of Japan yet, but I'm not going to factor that in too much. I like the American Pharoah bloodline. Won by 5 going away at 1 1/8. I think Admire Daytona is questionable at 1 1/4. Gio Ponti/Shackleford blood lines makes me think he wants to run a mile, 1 1/8 max. They've sure raced him that way. But Luxor Cafe is a threat for sure. Final Gambit is a huge question mark. Never raced on dirt. All synthetic/grass. Did come flying at TP in the Jeff Ruby as his top Beyer jumped 25 points. Brad Cox can get horses to run in the Derby. Maybe he's just getting good. Visually he was the most impressive finisher out of all the preps - but again it was on synthetic. Has Giants Causeway/Tapit so dirt should be OK, and he'll like the distance. Longshot but not impossible if he can run on dirt.
I'm pretty sure the winner is going to be one of Journalism, Burnham Square, Sovereignty, Luxor Cafe or maybe Rodriguez with Baeza, Admire Daytona and Final Gambit those who can break in to the Super at big prices. I'm going to be going through the prep videos and listen to Mike Welsch's Derby clocker reports before making final selections, but this is the early analysis for me. Journalism will be too short of a price for me so will just be a hedge in exactas with the others. I think the other 4 will be more value. Focus for me will be Burnham Square, Sovereignty and Luxor Cafe. Interested to hear FBG thoughts!
