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Official Arian Foster - All Foster news, all the time (2 Viewers)
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Shutout
Footballguy
A healthy Foster and Lewis would make New England NASTY. THey might have to win 48 to 42 every week but they could do it and it would be a wet dream for fantasy owners. In ppr, Foster would be a lock for 25 a week.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Just curious about the allowing 42 points every week part. The Pats ranked 10th in points allowed last year at 19.7 ppg. They traded Chandler Jones but added other pieces. Is Jones worth 3 TD a game?
Shutout
Footballguy
One of the Patriots heavy homers might set me straight on this so I will defer to them but I think they are in one of their transitional periods on defense in the sense that it seems like every 3-4 years they get in that groove where they are moving certain guys out and cross-training others in multi roles and it seems like their defense always slips a bit at those points. I THINK they are in that type of position currently with the moves they have made but, again, I'll defer to some of the guys I know here are heavy followers of the pats and will take their thoughts on it more seriously.
JackReacher
Footballguy
https://twitter.com/nflnetwork/status/755134519519289344NFL NetworkVerified account@nflnetwork
BREAKING: RB Arian Foster is signing with the@MiamiDolphins. (via @RapSheet)
BREAKING: RB Arian Foster is signing with the
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Shutout
Footballguy
Maybe. Maybe not. Not any more of a mess than Saints, Bills, Eagles, Cowboys, Chargers etc last year but there WAS always value for FF players in each of those.
I love Foster. Hope he stays healthy and has a great season and all that but even I realize signing FOster is not equal to saying it will last very long OR hurts Ajayi in 2016.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
PFT with the contract details.
Clearly a minimum one-year deal with minimum bonus/guaranteed money but I thought there would be more hullabaloo because this has to qualify as the biggest fantasy FA signing with another team for the summer.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/07/18/arian-foster-signs-for-1-5-million-400k-signing-bonus/
Arian Foster signs for $1.5 million, including $400K signing bonus
Posted by Josh Alper on July 18, 2016, 5:21 PM EDT
...According to multiple reports, Foster signed a deal worth $1.5 million that has incentives that could push the total value of the deal to $3.5 million. Alex Marvez of FOX Sports was among those reporting the financial details and Marvez adds that Dolphins coach Adam Gase’s “clear vision” of how he’ll use Foster played a big role in Foster’s decision to sign.
PFT has confirmed those details and learned, via a league source, that Foster got a $400,000 signing bonus as part of the $1.5 million. That’s the only guaranteed money in the deal, which means the Dolphins could release him before the start of the regular season and save $1.1 million. That could factor into their ultimate decision in the event that Foster’s play on the field doesn’t fit what Gase has envisioned for the veteran.
Thanks to Foster’s extended absence while rehabbing his torn Achilles, it’s hard to know how he’ll look once the Dolphins start camp so that answer will have to wait for a while.
Clearly a minimum one-year deal with minimum bonus/guaranteed money but I thought there would be more hullabaloo because this has to qualify as the biggest fantasy FA signing with another team for the summer.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/07/18/arian-foster-signs-for-1-5-million-400k-signing-bonus/
Arian Foster signs for $1.5 million, including $400K signing bonus
Posted by Josh Alper on July 18, 2016, 5:21 PM EDT
...According to multiple reports, Foster signed a deal worth $1.5 million that has incentives that could push the total value of the deal to $3.5 million. Alex Marvez of FOX Sports was among those reporting the financial details and Marvez adds that Dolphins coach Adam Gase’s “clear vision” of how he’ll use Foster played a big role in Foster’s decision to sign.
PFT has confirmed those details and learned, via a league source, that Foster got a $400,000 signing bonus as part of the $1.5 million. That’s the only guaranteed money in the deal, which means the Dolphins could release him before the start of the regular season and save $1.1 million. That could factor into their ultimate decision in the event that Foster’s play on the field doesn’t fit what Gase has envisioned for the veteran.
Thanks to Foster’s extended absence while rehabbing his torn Achilles, it’s hard to know how he’ll look once the Dolphins start camp so that answer will have to wait for a while.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Arian Foster signs deal with Miami
Commentators also talk about the Dolphins playing on grass and that there are no taxes in Miami as other things that may have mattered to Foster.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
Ajayi and Drake stock just plummeted
A.Foster buy time was yesterday in keeper leagues
A.Foster buy time was yesterday in keeper leagues
Chaka
Footballguy
I am not seeing that at all. For players who switched teams I think it's no more to get excited about than Chris Ivory in Jax or Forte to the Jets and less than Lamar Miller to Houston IMO (Osweiler, Osemele & Mack were also bigger signings from a fantasy perspective IMO). Foster is a baller, no doubt, best of the bunch when healthy but you just can't count on that from him anymore (really never could).
--Herniated disc sending him to IR in 2013
--Multiple hamstring & groin injuries causing multiple missed games in 2014
--Torn groin (the phrase "off the bone" still causes me to cringe) followed by a blown achilles and IR in 2015
I just don't see how he could be relied on for anything but spot duty. If they insert him as the starter I can't see him lasting past week six. Now if they are feeding him 20+ touches for those first six weeks then you are definitely going to want him in your lineup* but I think it is more likely that they will try very hard to cap his touches which will cap his fantasy upside.
*Of course everyone breaks down eventually and after the horrible groin tear and achilles last year and, to me, he looks like an old 29 I am even more skeptical.
DropKick
Footballguy
More likely a buy opportunity for Ajayi.
I would have little to no interest in Foster in a keeper league because I don't think he is a long term asset with his age & major injury history. Ironic that he chose Florida... Will he find the Fountain of Youth or is this just a step toward retirement?
As a fan, Foster is a cheap add that could pay dividends in 2016. I'll be excited to see him on the field, especially if he looks like his old self. I would rather still have Miller but that was another level of contract. I expected Miami to bring in a veteran as Ajayi/Drake is too untested for me and Ajayi has his own durability questions. I think the signing makes sense from the perspective of building a football team and is not a knock on Ajayi (or a lack of confidence). If he has the ability and was meant to be the lead back, Foster won't be a permanent hurdle. So, from a fantasy perspective, I see this as a buy low on the younger back.
Shutout
Footballguy
Never could? I have about 8 FF league titles over the span of three years that he is about 80% responsible for. He was extremely reliable for about a three year run, moreso than Peterson or Ray Rice (the darlings of that era).
Show me any RB who is "reliable" for 4+ straight years in FF and is a difference maker and I'm pretty sure we're talking about extraordinary guys that don't come around very often at all.
But anyway, I don't see any reason to be downplaying Foster or Miami Rb in ff by citing "he will only last so long" because the time he IS playing, he's going to be a high end starter in leagues and in all honesty it is not like any smart FF owner ever drafts a RB as a plug and play, set it and forget it kind of proposition. It is very common that RBs are mixed and matched and patched through to win leagues. I know a guy who started with Charles and Foster, flexed Dion Lewis, and won the league on the back of Tim Hightower. Approaching it any other way in fantasy football is lazy and will probably bite you.
I guess I'm just saying I would recommend seeing the cup as more half full than empty to correctly analyze this opportunity for FF>
Shutout
Footballguy
I think his Achilles injury happened on that same field. If that means anything or not.
I am surprised he quickly signed for that amount. He made a lot on that Texans contract but I was thinking he left a significant chunk on the table when they released him. might be wrong about that. I'll look.
ETA: $6.5 M in base salary this year is what Texans didn't want to pay. I guess its still great money and all but boy that's tough to take a job making 23% of what you once did.
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Chaka
Footballguy
And I acknowledged all of that in my post.
Of course other RBs have missed games, what happened to other RBs wasn't really the point. Foster has been IR's twice in the last three years with pretty heavy duty injuries along multiple missed games throughout his career from leg and hamstring issues. It's not a knock on his production while in the lineup, and he certainly won many people championships but you have a guy who is an old 29 not even 10 months removed from an achilles injury, going to arguably a lesser team with an entirely different scheme. Is it realistic to expect Arian Foster from 2014 or earlier? Personally I don't think so, he was terrible coming off of the groin injury last year. I would happily take a flier on him but I don't view him as the biggest FA acquisition, from a fantasy perspective, of this offseason.
Chaka
Footballguy
Absolutely. Unquestioned #1 pick overall in any dynasty start-up.So this means he still has a lot of tread on the tires, right?
Stealthycat
Footballguy
Foster went to MIA to play and get the bell cow touches .... for this year, for 2/3 years? we don't know, he could be durable and productive or get hurt before game one, we can only guess. That's the way it is with all RB's though isn't it? All you can ask is for your RB1 to get the bulk of touches - Foster will in MIA
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
SUMMER.
"..this has to qualify as the biggest fantasy FA signing with another team for the summer. "
No one else of any major significance has signed this summer with another team so I thought this would have gotten more responses since nothing else is happening right now.
Chaka
Footballguy
Gotcha. I think it would have only gone nuts if he signed with New England. People love speculating about players going to New England.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Notice that it says Gase likes to use one back for the bulk of a drive, and that both will likely have meaningful roles. Nowhere does it say "Gase doesn't believe in RBBC."
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Thar is a good point about his injury happening on grass.
Forsters main motivation seems to be that he likes Gase. I am not sure if the weather or taxes or whatnot had much influence on his decision.
Reading into his comments a bit, he seems like he wanted to play for Gase and that the Dolphins were his first choice of likely several options he could have pursued.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
If you listen to Gase himself, he says he does not believe in RBBC. I have posted multiple links of him saying that in the Ajayi thread.
If you look at Gase's history you see it isn't just lip service either.
2012 Knowshon Moreno gets hurt early on in the season and Willis McGahee gets feature RB carries until Moreno is healthy in game 11 and he gets feature RB carries.
2013 Knowshon Moreno gets feature RB carries. Despite the high draft pick on Montee Ball who did get some opportunity as well.
2014 they let Moreno walk (incidentally signed with the Dolphins) and they give the job to Montee Ball early on in the season who gets featured RB carries but fails to deliver. They then make Ronnie Hillman the featured RB for awhile with mixed results until game 9. Then they turn to CJ Anderson who gets feature RB opportunity for the remainder of the 2014 season.
2015 with the Bears Matt Forte gets feature RB opportunity until he is injured. When Matt Forte returns from injury they used a RBBC between him and Langford because they have decided not to retain Forte (I think in part because Langford looked good enough that they wanted to see more).
So the only time that Gase has used RBBC was at the end of last season and I believe that was more John Fox's decision than what Gase would prefer to do.
I never claimed that the article explicitly said Gase doesn't believe in RBBC. But Gase has said that pretty clearly in his press conferences.
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
The links you've posted - that I've seen - are of Gase saying that he wants RBs (multiple, not just one) who can play all three downs. Who can stay in for a full series. That is a different spin than "I don't want RBBC."
That said, I'm not going to pretend to have read everything or seen all his press conferences. If there was more to his comments, I trust your perspective.
Really appreciate the actual experience you posted from 2012-2015. That is good stuff.
Side question: What do you think Foster meant when he said basically "I still think I'm Pro Bowl caliber, and I like Coach Gase's plan to let me demonstrate that?"
ourmanflint
Footballguy
Excellent post.
My opinion is that Foster can't be more than insurance or an excellent backup for Ajayi in case of injury. There is no way I would ever expect Foster to take on the feature back role for any team and last more than 6 weeks tops. The guy is a nasty soft tissue injury waiting to happen. Every year he tantalizes with his ability to ring up points but he can NEVER stay healthy. Any smart coach would restrict his usage to no-huddle, 2 minute, high leverage situations until late season or playoffs. I love his talent but in the immortal words of Roger Daltrey...
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Your right what he said does not mean he wont alternate RB on different series.
He says specifically that he doesn't want a RB who is only a 1st and 2nd down guy, then another guy who comes in on 3rd down. He says he doesn't believe in that.
I could read into Fosters comments several different ways.
His comment about believing in himself that he can play at a pro bowl level is what you would expect any player to say. I think Foster believes in himself and will do the best he can.
He also says something about just being happy to have a spot on the team. That he likes the offense and where the team is heading and he wants to be a part of that. I could read into this comment that Foster will be happy even if he isn't the starter.
This will be a competition in training camp that I think will tell us some things about both Jay's overall talent (compared to Foster) and/or tell us how good Foster still is.
He says specifically that he doesn't want a RB who is only a 1st and 2nd down guy, then another guy who comes in on 3rd down. He says he doesn't believe in that.
I could read into Fosters comments several different ways.
His comment about believing in himself that he can play at a pro bowl level is what you would expect any player to say. I think Foster believes in himself and will do the best he can.
He also says something about just being happy to have a spot on the team. That he likes the offense and where the team is heading and he wants to be a part of that. I could read into this comment that Foster will be happy even if he isn't the starter.
This will be a competition in training camp that I think will tell us some things about both Jay's overall talent (compared to Foster) and/or tell us how good Foster still is.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Right. Well that is another possible scenario.
Lets say Foster wins the job in training camp. He will likely see a lot of volume in the offense then, and due to his injury history, with that type of workload he may break down quickly. 6 weeks seems like a good over/under there.
Foster could just prove to be ineffective as a runner and end up getting the hook because of that.
So even in these scenarios we may see Jay taking over at some point later on in the season anyways.
If Jay does not win the start outright, that would suggest to me that he isn't as good as I think he is. So I would have some additional doubts about him because of that.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Foster is a gimp, but if he is healthy, and that's a big if he is an elite RB. No matter what it muddies up the backfield due to the uncertainty. Ajayi would be risky even without Foster there, now he's a lottery ticket.
If Foster falls deep into the draft he's a much better gamble than Ajayi who will probably go much earlier. I'd love to draft Foster late and dump him for high value if he strings together a few big games.
If Foster falls deep into the draft he's a much better gamble than Ajayi who will probably go much earlier. I'd love to draft Foster late and dump him for high value if he strings together a few big games.
Shutout
Footballguy
Yeah, good timeline rundown there Bia.
On the question, From what I've been reading, it seems as if Foster has done a pretty good job of assessing himself at this stage and realizes he is most effective in the receiving game. Of course, this makes great sense for him in terms of punishment and there were early Miami reports about tempo so I think we can at least connect some dots (real or imaginary) and conclude that the offense will have a legitimate short passing game component to it.
It is setting up to be interesting because Gase definitely appears to be a feature back kind of guy but you have to think Foster knows or has been led to believe he has a definite contributing role here. We know Foster (when healthy) absolutely CAN be a feature back. We have had talk that Ajayi might be and his area of weakness is the passing game (not that he is weak but that's his personal weaker area).
So I'm thinking this may be a scenario where it could be Ajayi is going to be learning from Foster and Foster will,one way or the other, be relevant at points and may fade late. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see this open up with a "discovery" period where we see both guys (and both have some standalone FF value), followed by a period where Foster is stronger and then ending the year where Ajayi is stronger.
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DropKick
Footballguy
Interesting contrast between acknowledging uncertainties and strong conviction that you are certain of Arian's role and capability here.
Didn't sign for a ton of money. They understand the mileage, etc. We don't know what's left in the tank. Wouldn't surprise me if this falls well short of "bell cow".
DropKick
Footballguy
This aligns with my expectations pretty well and reflects that Foster can have a valuable NFL role that falls short of FF expectations.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I like to look at the size and shape of the opportunity for a running back.
The size of the dolphins running game looks below average. They ran fewer than 1000 plays last year and the running backs got just 244 carries. They got rid of a runming back who played well, then added a receiver in the draft and have another who should play more. They did get over 50 rb receptions, and tannehill is more of a short game passer. They will probably have more carries this year - they added a running back in the draft and chased all the top free agents - but it won't be a top running game.
The shape is still unknown, but somewhat capped. If foster plays the best hes ever played, he still wont get 300 carries at this age. Hes only signed to a one year contract, so there is no fear of running him into the ground, but foster went down when BoB tried to run him one too many times in garbage time last year and i doubt foster wants 30 carries a game.
But its hard to know the split of carries until we see them each on the field. Ajayi owners have been posting about how bad foster looks, but ajayi had sub 4 ypc last year on a decent 49 carry sample size. Either one could demand a big share of the rushing pie if they play well. We just don't know.
What we do know is that foster will likely be the main receiving back. He might also get the majority of the touchdowns. Ajayi is 6 foot, 216 - not small, but not a big frame for his height - and had just 1 td to miller's 8 last year. Foster has 4 seasons of 12+ touchdowns in his career. I would expect a few more rushing tds overall, maybe 8 for foster and 6 for ajayi.
If foster gets the most valuable touches (tds and receptions), you could be looking at a nice fantasy player even if he has low volume. Think dion lewis, woodhead, sproles. And it could keep him healthier. If he gets volume, he could be arian foster. The upside is there.
The risk is also very real. Ajayi could be a beast and push foster to a third down back role. Foster could play well but get hurt. Foster might just not play well after recovering from an achilles injury. We dont know.
I think foster is worth about the same as woodhead right now. Could have the rug pulled out from under him at any time, but performs well until he does. I wouldnt draft him at his upside, but i would take him at the right price.
The size of the dolphins running game looks below average. They ran fewer than 1000 plays last year and the running backs got just 244 carries. They got rid of a runming back who played well, then added a receiver in the draft and have another who should play more. They did get over 50 rb receptions, and tannehill is more of a short game passer. They will probably have more carries this year - they added a running back in the draft and chased all the top free agents - but it won't be a top running game.
The shape is still unknown, but somewhat capped. If foster plays the best hes ever played, he still wont get 300 carries at this age. Hes only signed to a one year contract, so there is no fear of running him into the ground, but foster went down when BoB tried to run him one too many times in garbage time last year and i doubt foster wants 30 carries a game.
But its hard to know the split of carries until we see them each on the field. Ajayi owners have been posting about how bad foster looks, but ajayi had sub 4 ypc last year on a decent 49 carry sample size. Either one could demand a big share of the rushing pie if they play well. We just don't know.
What we do know is that foster will likely be the main receiving back. He might also get the majority of the touchdowns. Ajayi is 6 foot, 216 - not small, but not a big frame for his height - and had just 1 td to miller's 8 last year. Foster has 4 seasons of 12+ touchdowns in his career. I would expect a few more rushing tds overall, maybe 8 for foster and 6 for ajayi.
If foster gets the most valuable touches (tds and receptions), you could be looking at a nice fantasy player even if he has low volume. Think dion lewis, woodhead, sproles. And it could keep him healthier. If he gets volume, he could be arian foster. The upside is there.
The risk is also very real. Ajayi could be a beast and push foster to a third down back role. Foster could play well but get hurt. Foster might just not play well after recovering from an achilles injury. We dont know.
I think foster is worth about the same as woodhead right now. Could have the rug pulled out from under him at any time, but performs well until he does. I wouldnt draft him at his upside, but i would take him at the right price.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
That would be interesting. What that would mean to me is that both players were playing at about the same level. Foster obviously more experienced with the nuances of the pro game and a good player for Jay to learn from.
Some comparisons of Jay as a prospect were to Arian Foster. Some compared him to Marshawn Lynch.
All these connections between Miami, Denver and Houston. Jay Ajayi is ZBS RB. Good vision too. Part of my RB evaluation leads me towards good ZBS RB over other types. I feel that if you can be successful in a ZBS you can be good in a power scheme too.
I am taking the concerns about Jay as a receiver, that to the best of my knowledge originate from Omar Kelly and Barry Jackson, with a grain of salt. Digging into this further I learned he dropped a couple passes and you know some people freak out about that. Barry Jackson may be one of those people. Then it hits the echo chamber and gets magnified from there.
Coach Gase talked about some of the timing being off between Tannehill and receivers. He did not always like where RT was placing the ball. I am not sure if this includes timing with Jay. He seemed to be talking about this being an issue with RT and all the receivers, that they need to work on. That is why they practice.
Certainly possible Omar or Barry saw some timing issues there. I have read what they wrote and I didn't see anything specifically pointing to issues with timing. I wish these guys would be more specific to be honest with you. I think someone else could do a better job.
He was efficient in his limited opportunity in that area last season. 11 targets 7 receptions 90 yards 8.1 ypt 12.9 ypr 63.6% catch rate. The catch rate is 10% below average for a RB but the yards per target are good. This is pretty decent although a small sample. He was very efficient in College with over 80% catch rate and high yards per target (I forget what it was exactly offhand).
All of that said Foster is a great receiving RB. So Jay has plenty to learn from him in that area and everything else.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Fred the Dolphins will be running hurry up no huddle packaged plays pretty much all the time (not when protecting a lead) according to Gase. While there was some talk about Bill Lazor bringing up tempo to Miami, that never really happened. So I think there is reason to expect more offensive plays than they ran last season. I have them projected for 1040 plays, which is how many they ran in 2014 and is about average for an NFL offense. Last season was 1030. The average was 1040 in 2013. So I have Miami at 1040 maybe that will be slightly above average for a NFL team in 2016.
I have Tannehill being sacked 40 times. So that leaves 1000 total plays.
I have them throwing 580 times and running 420.
I have Tannehill running the ball 35 times, which is about how many Cutler had. Tannehill has averaged 43 rushing attempts over the last 3 seasons, so maybe 35 will be a little low, I used Gase numbers as the primary basis for this. But lets say 40 that may be more correct.
That leaves 380 rushing attempts for the RB,
If the starter gets 60% of the rushing attempts that would be 228 over the season or 14 rushing attempts/game. I think the starter is more likely to get 16/game which works out to 256 rushing attempts. This would be 67% of the 380 RB carries which could be a bit high. But maybe they run 440 total times. Maybe a guy misses a game here or there giving a larger share to the starter.
One thing that Gase has said is that he does not believe in a 3rd down RB. Whoever starts the drive is the guy who he wants to end the drive. He doesn't plan to have a COP or specialized roles for RB. He wants his RB to be good in all 3 phases of the game. So whoever is the starter should get the majority of the opportunities. The 2nd RB would still get a possession here and there as relief.
I have Tannehill being sacked 40 times. So that leaves 1000 total plays.
I have them throwing 580 times and running 420.
I have Tannehill running the ball 35 times, which is about how many Cutler had. Tannehill has averaged 43 rushing attempts over the last 3 seasons, so maybe 35 will be a little low, I used Gase numbers as the primary basis for this. But lets say 40 that may be more correct.
That leaves 380 rushing attempts for the RB,
If the starter gets 60% of the rushing attempts that would be 228 over the season or 14 rushing attempts/game. I think the starter is more likely to get 16/game which works out to 256 rushing attempts. This would be 67% of the 380 RB carries which could be a bit high. But maybe they run 440 total times. Maybe a guy misses a game here or there giving a larger share to the starter.
One thing that Gase has said is that he does not believe in a 3rd down RB. Whoever starts the drive is the guy who he wants to end the drive. He doesn't plan to have a COP or specialized roles for RB. He wants his RB to be good in all 3 phases of the game. So whoever is the starter should get the majority of the opportunities. The 2nd RB would still get a possession here and there as relief.
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abbottjamesr
Footballguy
While the above is probably true it hasn't worked that way in practice over the past 3 year years. In Gase's offences as long as there are two competent backs they have usually split carries. The only times when a back gets the full work load seems to be when one of the competent backs gets injured leaving only one. In 2013 it was Ball/Hill then Hill/Anderson. In 2014 it was Hill/Anderson till Hill got hurt. Then in 2015 Forte was the man till he got hurt then it was Langford/Carey then Forte/Langford.
I think if Gase had a stud RB who could do everything he would be the bell cow. But I don't think that Ajai or Foster are going to qualify. My guess is its a true time share to start the season at least. 11-13 touches each per game. Good news for Ajayi owners is Foster will likely be broken by week 6 and Ajayi will likely be the man after that.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Disagree abbotjamesr
Look at the usage of the RB from the game logs. I linked them all in above post. It does not fit what you are describing at all aside from last season with the Bears after Forte was injured.
2012 for example you have McGahee who is the starter for the first 10 weeks. He gets 17, 24, 14, 25, 20,22, 25, 24 20 for the fist 9 games then he must have been injured in the 10th game because Hillman and Lance Ball get carries that week. Hillman does get 10 carries in game 4 and 14 in game 7 but these are blow out victories and McGahee had 25 opportunities in those games as well. Knowshon Moreno who was hurt early on in the season gets the start from game 11 on and gets 24, 25, 37, 24, 29, 16 opportunities in these games. In the last game of the season they give Lance Ball 15 carries, because it is the last game of the season, resting Moreno for the playoffs. Moreno gets hurt in the 1st game of the playoffs and with no one else (besides Ball) healthy they give Hillman 26 opportunities.
2013 and 2014 tell similar stories.
Look at the usage of the RB from the game logs. I linked them all in above post. It does not fit what you are describing at all aside from last season with the Bears after Forte was injured.
2012 for example you have McGahee who is the starter for the first 10 weeks. He gets 17, 24, 14, 25, 20,22, 25, 24 20 for the fist 9 games then he must have been injured in the 10th game because Hillman and Lance Ball get carries that week. Hillman does get 10 carries in game 4 and 14 in game 7 but these are blow out victories and McGahee had 25 opportunities in those games as well. Knowshon Moreno who was hurt early on in the season gets the start from game 11 on and gets 24, 25, 37, 24, 29, 16 opportunities in these games. In the last game of the season they give Lance Ball 15 carries, because it is the last game of the season, resting Moreno for the playoffs. Moreno gets hurt in the 1st game of the playoffs and with no one else (besides Ball) healthy they give Hillman 26 opportunities.
2013 and 2014 tell similar stories.
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purestrength
Footballguy
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
I went back and rechecked my position. Here is what I see. Let me know if it is different than what you see.
In last 48 games under Gase he has give one RB more than 70% of the total touches that game to one back 25 times and split the touches 23 times.
2013 - Moreno had taken over as lead back at week 5 over 2nd year Hillman, Rookies Ball and UDFA Anderson. Weeks 6,7,10-12 were bellcow weeks for Moreno.
2014 - Ball was lead back weeks 1-3, Bad play led to a time share with Hillman and Anderson. Anderson emerges Week 11 as the clear best runner. Holds lead back duties (11-16)
2015 - Forte was obvious best RB was lead back till injury week 8. Weeks 10-16 are timeshare btw Langford/Carey/Forte. Week 17 Forte back to lead.
I see it as, if Gase has a clear favorite RB he will use that guy as a bellcow. I am sure that is what he would prefer to do going into the season. I personally don't think Foster at 29 coming of Achilles surgery or a second year Ajayi with limited NFL experience or success are going to qualify for Bellcow duty. My guess is we will something similar to how 2013 started for the Bronocos, with the veteran Forte sharring time with the young Ajayi untill either Foster shows he is still the stud Foster or he gets injured.
There is huge upside for both guys but picking the guy that emerges will be difficult at best.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Our perspective on what is feature RB workload is a bit different. I think 70% of the opportunity is a bit high for almost any RB. Most situations a lead RB will only see like 60% or somewhere between 60 and 70 percent.
If the player is getting 16 or more opportunities in a game, that is enough.
2013 is kind of a strange year to choose as the basis for RB use in MIami.
You had Moreno who was recovering from the injury in the playoffs, and as we have since learned, a long term degenerative condition, the Bronco's did not sign him to a new contract, he went t Miami and played well early on before being injured again. I don't think a team has picked him up since then. But back to 2013 they likely wanted to take it easy with Moreno early on in the season and they also drafted Ball in the 2nd round to be his replacement. Elway was really pushing for Ball to become their starter. So they split carries during those first four games of 2013. Starting in game 5 Moreno has 24, 21,19, 23, 28, 38, 20, 21, 14, 15, 12 so this did trail off at the end of the season. In week 16 (last game) they had Ball get 10 carries and Hillman 12 resting Moreno for the playoffs. The other 2 games where Moreno fell short of 16 opportunities no other RB did much in those games either.
If Elway hadn't been pushing for Ball to start and if Moreno was not still recovering I don't think they would have split carries the way they did in the 1st four games. While Ball did have some high opportunity game 8, 12 and 13 these games were blow outs and Moreno still had about 20 opportunities during those weeks.
So the main differences in what we see are that I don't think the threshold to be considered a feature RB should be 70% I think 60% is much more common. I don't think extra carries for the 2nd RB in blow out games should be considered RBBC when the starter is still getting a lot of action.
How that translates to Dolphins is another matter all together. At least we agree that as long as a really good RB is healthy, they get starter carries, and I think that is the most important thing here, however this competition shakes out.
If the player is getting 16 or more opportunities in a game, that is enough.
2013 is kind of a strange year to choose as the basis for RB use in MIami.
You had Moreno who was recovering from the injury in the playoffs, and as we have since learned, a long term degenerative condition, the Bronco's did not sign him to a new contract, he went t Miami and played well early on before being injured again. I don't think a team has picked him up since then. But back to 2013 they likely wanted to take it easy with Moreno early on in the season and they also drafted Ball in the 2nd round to be his replacement. Elway was really pushing for Ball to become their starter. So they split carries during those first four games of 2013. Starting in game 5 Moreno has 24, 21,19, 23, 28, 38, 20, 21, 14, 15, 12 so this did trail off at the end of the season. In week 16 (last game) they had Ball get 10 carries and Hillman 12 resting Moreno for the playoffs. The other 2 games where Moreno fell short of 16 opportunities no other RB did much in those games either.
If Elway hadn't been pushing for Ball to start and if Moreno was not still recovering I don't think they would have split carries the way they did in the 1st four games. While Ball did have some high opportunity game 8, 12 and 13 these games were blow outs and Moreno still had about 20 opportunities during those weeks.
So the main differences in what we see are that I don't think the threshold to be considered a feature RB should be 70% I think 60% is much more common. I don't think extra carries for the 2nd RB in blow out games should be considered RBBC when the starter is still getting a lot of action.
How that translates to Dolphins is another matter all together. At least we agree that as long as a really good RB is healthy, they get starter carries, and I think that is the most important thing here, however this competition shakes out.
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Tau837
Footballguy
This is an interesting comment. What do you think Woodhead is worth right now? On the one hand, he was a top 10 RB in total points and top 15 in ppg in PPR leagues in each of his last two healthy seasons. On the other hand, the Chargers could run more often and more effectively and shift some of Woodhead's touches to Gordon this year. My gut feeling is that Woodhead > Foster in PPR leagues, based on recent performance and Foster's injury history.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Yeah, i see them both as similar risk/reward. Neither one is likely to lead the nfl in carries. They both get receptions and goal line opportunities. They are both old and have young guys who could take over for them at any time, but both are proven fantasy studs who for some reason are always underappreciated. Both should get a bundle of receptions but the rest of their role is kind of in limbo. Woodhead doesnt have quite the upside but also isnt nearly the same kind of injury risk. Either one could be a rb1 or total bust this year. I think its reasonable to prefer either one given what we know right now.
zamboni
Footballguy
Foster is indeed intriguing, but I think many in the fantasy community are viewing him as who he was not who he is now.
As we've seen from many great RBs before him, when the wheels fall off, they fall off quickly.
Not saying that he can't re-discover the fountain of youth, but I think people need to draft accordingly.
As we've seen from many great RBs before him, when the wheels fall off, they fall off quickly.
Not saying that he can't re-discover the fountain of youth, but I think people need to draft accordingly.
Yeah, it's shocking to hear how highly some people view Foster. He looked old & used up last year before his major injury. Yes, he caught some passes & scored a few TDs but it was obvious to anyone who actually watched him, that the wheels had already come off. I was actively trying to trade him (even with his good ppg) when he went down with the injury. Now he's coming back from one of the most difficult injuries for RBs. If he does beat out Ajayi, then neither one is any good, and the Dolphins are in trouble.
