Ugh, not sure how much more of the bandwagon fans I can take.
Bunches of people who never watched a Ravens game that wasn't coached by John Harbaugh are now experts in salary cap management, can't believe the Ravens are going to let Boldin and/or Reed go, and are blaming Flacco's greedy new deal for forcing those guys out of town.
For the record, Flacco's 2013 cap number is now smaller than his 2011 number. And we go through this every year, just like last year when Ben Grubbs and Jarrett Johnson left, and people are - truly - screaming that Ozzie doesn't know what he's doing. Really?
I posted some similar thoughts in one of the many Flacco threads, when I knew a non-franchise tag deal would be done, because it made sense, was a win-win for both sides, and was reflective of what I believe is the best-run franchise in the NFL (yes, even better than New England, where I feel Bellichick has too much on his plate).
As good as their college scouting operation is (and the Ravens, like the Patriots do all their own college work, rather than subscribe to Blesto like almost every other team does), the Ravens' pro scouting group might be even better. On top of that, their cap guru works with the pro scouts to ascribe a cap value to every single player in the NFL, relative to their individual performance, average salary figures, available free agents by position, and also a dynamic evaluation of how much combined cap room is available among all 32 teams and how that will affect the market for free agent salaries.
So when Ozzie says "Right player, right price," he's not just pulling a price out of thin air, he's literally referring to what a player's production is in comparison to the league average for what a player of similar ability is paid, and what salary they can expect to command in any given year's free agent market, based on position scarcity and the league-wide cap situation. In the case of Boldin, his 2013 cap number is $7.5M. They want him to take a $2M pay cut. That means, they have ascribed a value of roughly $5.5M to a player of Boldin's ability. If he doesn't take that deal, then I am willing to believe the Ravens have identified another WR who they believe they can sign for $5.5M or less, and who will provide similar production.
The same goes for Reed to a certain extent. There is a glut on the Safety free agency market and my guess is that - similar to when Ray hit the market in 2009 - nobody will be willing to pay more than the Ravens. And I also believe that if Reed does leave, then the Ravens have a plan on what to next.
I do trust in Ozzie and I know his team has mastery of this in a way that no other NFL organization does, let alone some fan. For example, when Ben Grubbs left for New Orleans last year, I had never heard of Kalachi Osemele. But you can bet that when Grubbs left, the Ravens had a pretty good idea KO would be available for them at the end of Round 2. That worked out pretty well.
Oh, and as for Grubbs. The Saints gave him a $10M signing bonus last year and then last week restructured his one-year-old deal to save cap room by giving him another $4M roster bonus.
He's going to count $9.1M vs. their cap in 2014. For a Guard!? Meanwhile, in 2014,
Osemele will count for $900 K vs. the Ravens cap. Literally one-tenth the price of Grubbs.
Right player, right price.
I hope Boldin stays. He basically carried the Ravens to the Super Bowl. I think he and Flacco are beginning to click in fantastic ways. But if the Ravens let him go, I'm going to trust it was the right decision, and that letting him go will help them continue their success more than keeping him would have.
Mr. Passive Aggressive.
