*** Official Barack Obama FBG campaign headquarters *** (1 Viewer)

[Tremendous Upside]

I just took a trip over to Poblano, which is the new guru site when it comes to electoral projection...Obama's chances in November:Mississippi: .2%Louisiana: 2.8%Kansas: 5.8%Georgia: 6.2%But yes, let's keep pretending that he puts every state in the entire country in play because he is god. That will surely work out in November.He's going to win the White House. Not with Ohio and Florida, but with Virginia + Colorado + North Carolina. But let's not get ridiculous here.

I bet those were approximately his odds of winning the nomination at the start of the contest. Not saying that he'll get those states, but, at this point, it's a bit early for those numbers to mean a whole lot. I'd multiply them by 10 to give them a more accurate number come november.

Now let's not get ahead of ourselvesThere's no way Obama wins Georgia and Kansas with 62% and 58% respectively

Those are chances of him winning the state, not outcomes.I think he will put a few southern states in play that previously haven't been. Louisiana would've been a prime candidate if many of the black people weren't scattered to other states from Katrina. It's not that he only gets black votes, but that is a huge base of his and if they were still in LA like they were before, I could see them coming out huge for him.

Ah, gotchaStill think you're overly confident about most of those Southern states, but who knows

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

I just took a trip over to Poblano, which is the new guru site when it comes to electoral projection...Obama's chances in November:Mississippi: .2%Louisiana: 2.8%Kansas: 5.8%Georgia: 6.2%But yes, let's keep pretending that he puts every state in the entire country in play because he is god. That will surely work out in November.He's going to win the White House. Not with Ohio and Florida, but with Virginia + Colorado + North Carolina. But let's not get ridiculous here.

I bet those were approximately his odds of winning the nomination at the start of the contest. Not saying that he'll get those states, but, at this point, it's a bit early for those numbers to mean a whole lot. I'd multiply them by 10 to give them a more accurate number come november.

Now let's not get ahead of ourselvesThere's no way Obama wins Georgia and Kansas with 62% and 58% respectively

I'm not saying he WILL win those states, but based on special elections and the impact the Bush admin and GOP has had negatively on LA and MS specifically, I wouldnt be so quick to just take those states off the table. KS I stated the caveat of the popular governor being his running-mate. Although maybe this endorsement means he is choosing Edwards.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

CNN JUST SAID EDWARDS IS ABOUT TO ENDORSE OBAMA AT THE EVENT IN MICHIGAN!!!

Just made it on CNN.com's breaking news too, although reports come from Obama's campaign!

Edwards' campaign manager on CNN now confirming Edwards is on his way to Michigan to endorse.

Meh. The WV loss doesn't depress me. The Edwards endorsement doesn't excite me.In fact, the only thing that will make me happy now is the day Hillary finally bows out.

 

[adonis]

I just took a trip over to Poblano, which is the new guru site when it comes to electoral projection...Obama's chances in November:Mississippi: .2%Louisiana: 2.8%Kansas: 5.8%Georgia: 6.2%But yes, let's keep pretending that he puts every state in the entire country in play because he is god. That will surely work out in November.He's going to win the White House. Not with Ohio and Florida, but with Virginia + Colorado + North Carolina. But let's not get ridiculous here.

I bet those were approximately his odds of winning the nomination at the start of the contest. Not saying that he'll get those states, but, at this point, it's a bit early for those numbers to mean a whole lot. I'd multiply them by 10 to give them a more accurate number come november.

Now let's not get ahead of ourselvesThere's no way Obama wins Georgia and Kansas with 62% and 58% respectively

Those are chances of him winning the state, not outcomes.I think he will put a few southern states in play that previously haven't been. Louisiana would've been a prime candidate if many of the black people weren't scattered to other states from Katrina. It's not that he only gets black votes, but that is a huge base of his and if they were still in LA like they were before, I could see them coming out huge for him.

Ah, gotchaStill think you're overly confident about most of those Southern states, but who knows

Probably, I just think Obama gets a huge turnout from african americans and that can help shift some of the balance of power, combined with independent and some republican draw. We'll see though.

 

[adonis]

CNN JUST SAID EDWARDS IS ABOUT TO ENDORSE OBAMA AT THE EVENT IN MICHIGAN!!!

Just made it on CNN.com's breaking news too, although reports come from Obama's campaign!

Edwards' campaign manager on CNN now confirming Edwards is on his way to Michigan to endorse.

Meh. The WV loss doesn't depress me. The Edwards endorsement doesn't excite me.In fact, the only thing that will make me happy now is the day Hillary finally bows out.

I think the Edwards endorsement hastens that day.He's the first of the party leadership, real party leadership, to come out in favor of someone. Gore, Pelosi, Edwards, Dean.If this is a sign from the top that the party should fall in line, and they start doing that, there are enough superdelegates left to give Obama the nomination before next Tuesday. Not likely, but it's possible, and his endorsement certainly provides a lot of cover for any superdelegate to endorse Obama now, even in spite of the WV win for Clinton.

 

[adonis]

I kinda think this makes Edwards the most likely VP choice.

He certainly will help bolster the white, blue collar worker group for Obama. Stays true to the "change" mantra. Good chemistry from early on in primary season. I like it.

 

[skol asylum]

I kinda think this makes Edwards the most likely VP choice.

He certainly will help bolster the white, blue collar worker group for Obama. Stays true to the "change" mantra. Good chemistry from early on in primary season. I like it.

Edwards fits, but he's had a chance already in that slot.Could still be this guy, even though he's recently said he's not interested.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

I kinda think this makes Edwards the most likely VP choice.He certainly will help bolster the white, blue collar worker group for Obama. Stays true to the "change" mantra. Good chemistry from early on in primary season. I like it.

Certainly a safe choice.

 

[goonsquad]

Oh man I bet Hillary is PO'd right now.

 

[Trey]

Edwards is SO boring. And cannot be the nominee in 8 years time.

I'll pass.

 

[cobalt_27]

Great timing on the endorsement. Right after a certain loss in WV...right around the peak news cycle in the late-afternoon/evening. Keep the momentum going.

I keep asking over and over...what does Hillary really expect here? What do her supporters want out of her bleeding this slow, excruciating death? She's not going to get the presidency, the democratic nomination, and she certainly won't get the VP nod, anymore with the trashy campaign she's been running. I think she's positioned herself rather poorly for 2012, as well.

What's the end game for her?

 

[skol asylum]

Waiting to see what Carville calls Edwards tonight on CNN.

 

[skol asylum]

Great timing on the endorsement. Right after a certain loss in WV...right around the peak news cycle in the late-afternoon/evening. Keep the momentum going. I keep asking over and over...what does Hillary really expect here? What do her supporters want out of her bleeding this slow, excruciating death? She's not going to get the presidency, the democratic nomination, and she certainly won't get the VP nod, anymore with the trashy campaign she's been running. I think she's positioned herself rather poorly for 2012, as well. What's the end game for her?

To convince the superdelegates Americans are too racist to vote for an uppity elitist black man.

 

[adonis]

Edwards is SO boring. And cannot be the nominee in 8 years time.I'll pass.

They complement each other though, in terms of the people they connect most with. Obama's suffering most right now among white, blue-collar voters. That's Edward's strong point. He can connect with them very well.If Obama maintains his support among blacks, independents, the young and the educated, and can add on white working class, blue collar voters, he's quite a formidable candidate. Edwards could offer that.

 

[skol asylum]

Edwards is SO boring. And cannot be the nominee in 8 years time.I'll pass.

I hope you're not hoping for Hillary...

 

[cobalt_27]

Great timing on the endorsement. Right after a certain loss in WV...right around the peak news cycle in the late-afternoon/evening. Keep the momentum going. I keep asking over and over...what does Hillary really expect here? What do her supporters want out of her bleeding this slow, excruciating death? She's not going to get the presidency, the democratic nomination, and she certainly won't get the VP nod, anymore with the trashy campaign she's been running. I think she's positioned herself rather poorly for 2012, as well. What's the end game for her?

To convince the superdelegates Americans are too racist to vote for an uppity elitist black man.

Great strategy. Seems like it's really working well for her.

 

[skol asylum]

Waiting to see what Carville calls Edwards tonight on CNN.

Carville on CNN now...

 

[skol asylum]

Waiting to see what Carville calls Edwards tonight on CNN.

Carville on CNN now...

It doesn't strike me these endorsements have a great deal of an effect on the election outcome. It could have some effect on superdelegates.duh

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Great timing on the endorsement. Right after a certain loss in WV...right around the peak news cycle in the late-afternoon/evening. Keep the momentum going. I keep asking over and over...what does Hillary really expect here? What do her supporters want out of her bleeding this slow, excruciating death? She's not going to get the presidency, the democratic nomination, and she certainly won't get the VP nod, anymore with the trashy campaign she's been running. I think she's positioned herself rather poorly for 2012, as well. What's the end game for her?

Damage Obama so he loses. Run in 2012.

 

[Eviloutsider]

Great timing on the endorsement. Right after a certain loss in WV...right around the peak news cycle in the late-afternoon/evening. Keep the momentum going. I keep asking over and over...what does Hillary really expect here? What do her supporters want out of her bleeding this slow, excruciating death? She's not going to get the presidency, the democratic nomination, and she certainly won't get the VP nod, anymore with the trashy campaign she's been running. I think she's positioned herself rather poorly for 2012, as well. What's the end game for her?

When my father had cancer that came back twice after being in remission they gave him two options. One was to die the other was to fight a very, very uphill battle that may at best give me more time. Same thing to Hilary. Any chance is better than no chance and there is still a chance albeit very, very small. Endgame:Become President

 

[adonis]

Great timing on the endorsement. Right after a certain loss in WV...right around the peak news cycle in the late-afternoon/evening. Keep the momentum going. I keep asking over and over...what does Hillary really expect here? What do her supporters want out of her bleeding this slow, excruciating death? She's not going to get the presidency, the democratic nomination, and she certainly won't get the VP nod, anymore with the trashy campaign she's been running. I think she's positioned herself rather poorly for 2012, as well. What's the end game for her?

End game for her is no chance left. Currently, if she can get Michigan and Florida seated, and wins by a hefty margin in a few contests left, and can broaden her argument to the superdelegates that Obama can't get the support needed to win in November while she could.Her endgame comes after the last election, and after they vote on whether or not MI or FL can be seated. She doesn't go further than June 3rd, if they don't get seated, imo. Or, if he gets the magic number first.

 

[Trey]

Considering the fact that Clinton went on 3 talk shows today and on each and every one of them commented on what a stupid stupid thing it would be for her supporters to back McCain, you would think that some of you could just calm down.

She's riding it out until June 4th. I don't see what the big deal is. She's about to finish 2nd in perhaps the closest primary process this country has ever seen. There are only a handful of states left. Do we really need these next 2 weeks to take out McCain?

 

[cobalt_27]

Considering the fact that Clinton went on 3 talk shows today and on each and every one of them commented on what a stupid stupid thing it would be for her supporters to back McCain, you would think that some of you could just calm down.She's riding it out until June 4th. I don't see what the big deal is. She's about to finish 2nd in perhaps the closest primary process this country has ever seen. There are only a handful of states left. Do we really need these next 2 weeks to take out McCain?

Sooner the better. Yes.

 

[adonis]

Considering the fact that Clinton went on 3 talk shows today and on each and every one of them commented on what a stupid stupid thing it would be for her supporters to back McCain, you would think that some of you could just calm down.She's riding it out until June 4th. I don't see what the big deal is. She's about to finish 2nd in perhaps the closest primary process this country has ever seen. There are only a handful of states left. Do we really need these next 2 weeks to take out McCain?

Nah, she can stay in it. I sorta want her to. But yeah, it's great she's saying that about Obama, and she's elevating her campaign to focus more negativity on McCain than Obama. She's welcome to stay in as long as she wants. I think it's better for the democrats if she does, because that means more states "matter" and more democrats feel ownership of the process. Cutting it off now, after this long of a primary, wouldn't make much sense. Let it play out.

 

[Trey]

Considering the fact that Clinton went on 3 talk shows today and on each and every one of them commented on what a stupid stupid thing it would be for her supporters to back McCain, you would think that some of you could just calm down.She's riding it out until June 4th. I don't see what the big deal is. She's about to finish 2nd in perhaps the closest primary process this country has ever seen. There are only a handful of states left. Do we really need these next 2 weeks to take out McCain?

Sooner the better. Yes.

She'll be gone in 3 weeks. November is FIVE MONTHS AWAY. Breathe Democrats, breathe.

 

[cobalt_27]

Considering the fact that Clinton went on 3 talk shows today and on each and every one of them commented on what a stupid stupid thing it would be for her supporters to back McCain, you would think that some of you could just calm down.

She's riding it out until June 4th. I don't see what the big deal is. She's about to finish 2nd in perhaps the closest primary process this country has ever seen. There are only a handful of states left. Do we really need these next 2 weeks to take out McCain?

Sooner the better. Yes.

She'll be gone in 3 weeks. November is FIVE MONTHS AWAY. Breathe Democrats, breathe.

Excellent.

 

[Tigran Petrosian]

this been posted yet?

 

[skol asylum]

Considering the fact that Clinton went on 3 talk shows today and on each and every one of them commented on what a stupid stupid thing it would be for her supporters to back McCain, you would think that some of you could just calm down.She's riding it out until June 4th. I don't see what the big deal is. She's about to finish 2nd in perhaps the closest primary process this country has ever seen. There are only a handful of states left. Do we really need these next 2 weeks to take out McCain?

And tomorrow she'll be on those same talk shows saying "shame on you Barack Obama". The woman can't be trusted. I wouldn't let her near the Vice Presidency.

 

[The Commish]

Change I can't believe in.

If Obama picks Hillary after beating the drum of not needing more of the same in DC then I'm officially out.

EDITED to add:

No way he does this. But he HAS to act like he gives the matter serious consideration, etc., to appease the folks in Hillary's camp, and the female voters. In the end he may have to select a female running mate, but it CANNOT be Clinton.

Other than HRC, are there any other females under consideration?

Napalatano (AZ gov), Sebelius (KS gov), and McCaskill (MO Sen) are all probably being looked at.I don't think there's any way Obama gives her the VP slot save for the DNC rules committee letting the FL and MI results stand with no punishment to them. Everything you read says he really doesn't like her.

FWIW, I love that Obama suckered McCain into talking about his age. McCain could have just let that "losing his bearings" comment go and no one would have noticed. Instead, he highlights his age. It's pretty obviously a sore spot for McCain that I'm guessing is going to be easy to pick at the entire time.

One last point....we talked about this a little while ago about Obama not really responding to Clinton's continually moving the goalposts. Well, proclaiming himself the pledged delegate winner on May 20th will do that. Technically at that point, there won't be any FL and MI, so he'll be absolutely correct. They may get reinstated on the 31st (though that's still appealable), but by proclaiming himself the nominee (and more importantly the media not challenging that assertion), he's basically slamming the door on any Clinton hail mary.

What about Edwards?? Honestly, I had forgotten about him, but he's now heaping praise on Obama.

 

[Mr. Pickles]

Pat Buchanan on Hardball right now losing his mind. Guy is saying Obama is winning because he's black. Nice work, Geraldine.

 

[BuddyKnuckles]

this been posted yet?

thats the funniest thing i've seen all day

 

[The Juggernaut]

Pat Buchanan on Hardball right now losing his mind. Guy is saying Obama is winning because he's black. Nice work, Geraldine.

I encourage everyone to send MSNBC an email about your displeasure with Buchanan.....Maybe you'll get a response....I didn't....

 

[SofaKings]

Pat Buchanan on Hardball right now losing his mind. Guy is saying Obama is winning because he's black. Nice work, Geraldine.

I encourage everyone to send MSNBC an email about your displeasure with Buchanan.....Maybe you'll get a response....I didn't....

Olbermann is worse than Buchanan.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

this been posted yet?

Likening your opponent to Hitler is always classy and never gets old. Nice job.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

this been posted yet?

thats the funniest thing i've seen all day

You must have spent your entire day at a funeral home. My condolences on your loss.

 

[Mr. Pickles]

this been posted yet?

Likening your opponent to Hitler is always classy and never gets old. Nice job.

Could just be a joke.

 

[phthalatemagic]

this been posted yet?

thats the funniest thing i've seen all day

Really?

 

[shining path]

this been posted yet?

Likening your opponent to Hitler is always classy and never gets old. Nice job.

I now desperately want to see that movie with the original subtitles.

 

[Mr. Pickles]

this been posted yet?

Likening your opponent to Hitler is always classy and never gets old. Nice job.

I now desperately want to see that movie with the original subtitles.

It's a fantastic movie. Saw it in the theater. :filmsnob:

 

[urbanhack]

Suzzane Malveaux is looking extremely hot tonight.

wow

 

[Mr. Pickles]

Suzzane Malveaux is looking extremely hot tonight.wow

She's a babe.

 

[SofaKings]

this been posted yet?

Likening your opponent to Hitler is always classy and never gets old. Nice job.

The Dallas Cowboy one is better.

 

[SHIZNITTTT]

this been posted yet?

Instant Classic

 

[adonis]

Pat Buchanan on Hardball right now losing his mind. Guy is saying Obama is winning because he's black. Nice work, Geraldine.

Between voting for Obama because he's black, Hillary for being a woman, and mccain for being a white male veteran...it's a wonder we even care about issues. Issues have become the lapel pin, and the lapel pin has become the important issues.

 

[djcolts]

From First Read:

*** Those 18 delegates: Edwards endorsement also did another thing: It undercuts Clintons Florida/Michigan argument. As we know by now, Obama will gain a majority of the pledged delegates after Tuesdays contests in Kentucky and Oregon. But if you award Obama Edwards 18 pledged delegates -- who technically can vote for anyone at the convention, but whom you'd also expect to side with Obama -- then Obama, if he picks up about 50 delegates on Tuesday (less than half of the delegates up for grabs that night), he would obtain a majority of pledged delegates even if you include Florida and Michigan's entire delegations. Here's the math: 4,051 (the DNC convention voting total) minus 797 (superdelegates) equals 3,254 plus FL's (185) and MI's (128) delegates equals 3,567. Divide that by two (and round up), and here's the number needed for a majority: 1,784. Obama currently has 1,599 pledged delegates. Add in those 18 Edwards delegates, add in our low estimate of 50 for him Tuesday and that gets you to 1,667. Now, add in the Clinton best-case scenarios in MI/FL, giving her the delegates with the voting as is, Obama would then reach a majority of the pledged delegates OVERALL. Assume a 105-67 split in FL and a 73-55 split in MI. That gives Obama a grand total of: 1,789.

Clinton's last big hope was getting 73 delegates for MI, and Obama getting none of the "uncommitted" delegates - claming that the uncommitted delegates could have come from a combination of Obama and Edwards voters and shouldn't go to Obama's column. Maybe they were talking about Richardson...wait, he endorsed Obama. Maybe Dodd...whoops. No, all the uncommitted voters were all going for Joe Biden. Yeah...that's it.

 

[Sammy3469]

BTW...I just thank Bush for butting his nose in by comparing Obama to Nazi appeasers. I really hope he keeps this up all summer. He really is the gift that keeps on giving to the Dems. Please let this campaign become Obama v. Bush. That's a campaign Obama wins 100% of the time.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

From First Read:

*** Those 18 delegates: Assume a 105-67 split in FL and a 73-55 split in MI. That gives Obama a grand total of: 1,789.

Why make those assumptions?

 

[adonis]

From First Read:

*** Those 18 delegates: Assume a 105-67 split in FL and a 73-55 split in MI. That gives Obama a grand total of: 1,789.

Why make those assumptions?

Those were best case assumptions for Hillary. The delegates will be seated somehow, and they're just saying that even if they are, under a best case scenario for Hillary, Obama will still have a majority.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

From First Read:

*** Those 18 delegates: Assume a 105-67 split in FL and a 73-55 split in MI. That gives Obama a grand total of: 1,789.

Why make those assumptions?

Those were best case assumptions for Hillary. The delegates will be seated somehow, and they're just saying that even if they are, under a best case scenario for Hillary, Obama will still have a majority.

I don't get the 73-55 split of MI delegates. And I don't get why that's a "best case" for Hillary.

 

[chet]

has this been discussed?