People change their habits (ie stay home more). Plus I think Omicron had a HIGH % of asymptomatic positives and people are not getting tested for holiday gatherings anymore.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (28 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
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The Z Machine
Footballguy
R0 for Omicron variant is like 3-4x that of Delta or all previous strains. If the incubation period is reduced, and the transmission time shortened (also possible / probable with omicron), then case rates can jump quickly. If neither vaccines nor previous infection to another variant do a good job at preventing omicron infection, the entire population is at risk of infection, much like alpha was in early 2020.
I am unsure how R0 affects the precipitous drop in case rates after the peak. That's an interesting aspect of epidemic modeling I haven't seen talked about much.
I am unsure how R0 affects the precipitous drop in case rates after the peak. That's an interesting aspect of epidemic modeling I haven't seen talked about much.
jamny
Footballguy
yeah, I can see the rapid increase but it's the quick decline that is weird to me. Mitigation efforts can clearly have an impact but I would still think there would be more of a plateau for a while.
Is it because it weakens with every transmission?
belljr
Footballguy
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Doug B
Footballguy
Omicron runs out of low-hanging fruit before long. Not a whole lot more to it than that.
belljr
Footballguy
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Doug B
Footballguy
You've got a point -- we shouldn't be assuming any pace of downslide just yet. Regarding South Africa's descent from Omicron heights (YLE, 1/18/2022):
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Nationally, it looks like we are up the last few days again.
But in PA, we have been below 20,000/day for three days in a row, which has not happened since right before Xmas.
But in PA, we have been below 20,000/day for three days in a row, which has not happened since right before Xmas.
Doug B
Footballguy
Yeah, the Northeast is going to calm down while other areas are still flaring up. The U.S. generally does not move as a single entity regarding COVID spread.
Awesome
I havent checked the #s lately.
I was going off this post.
Scoresman
Footballguy
I've been looking at positive % rates since it's obvious tracking number of cases is not a good representation. It seems like there's a testing cap that's been hit. In Oregon, we've been hovering at 22-25% positive rate for about 2 weeks. Wondering if this is a peak or not.
Doug B
Footballguy
No doubt about it. I doubt the official case numbers capture even one in four infections (though a strong majority of the ones they miss are sub-clinical).
belljr
Footballguy
Gotcha. It might not be as fast as the rise and might not drop to pre wave numbers but it is a sharp descent compared to other waves
skol asylum
Footballguy
Jackstraw
Footballguy
Just sat in on a teleconference with UHC.
My carrier United Health Care is working with specific pharamicies to cover the at home tests cashless with specific pharmacies. I'm sure other carriers are ramping up to do this as well. Part of the federal regualtions. 8 tests per covered individual per 30 days. So in other words I can go to the pharmacy and get the tests with my medical card like a prescription. They are using wal mart, rite aid, sams club and bartell drugs. You have to go through the pharmacy counter rather than try to check out at the front because the pharmacy has the verfication technology.
If you go through these pharmacies you can do this. If you use others you need to submit to your carrier for reimbursment up to $12 per test. So that would be $24 for a box with two tests.
Of course this presumes they have the tests available. I am going to try it and see how it works.
This is seperate from the 4 at home tests you can order through the post office.
My carrier United Health Care is working with specific pharamicies to cover the at home tests cashless with specific pharmacies. I'm sure other carriers are ramping up to do this as well. Part of the federal regualtions. 8 tests per covered individual per 30 days. So in other words I can go to the pharmacy and get the tests with my medical card like a prescription. They are using wal mart, rite aid, sams club and bartell drugs. You have to go through the pharmacy counter rather than try to check out at the front because the pharmacy has the verfication technology.
If you go through these pharmacies you can do this. If you use others you need to submit to your carrier for reimbursment up to $12 per test. So that would be $24 for a box with two tests.
Of course this presumes they have the tests available. I am going to try it and see how it works.
This is seperate from the 4 at home tests you can order through the post office.
ZADO
Footballguy
ok, let me rephrase that. A legit source that mentions a study done by reputable scientists . I`m sorry the link doesnt provide the actual study . I`m sure you could google it
skol asylum
Footballguy
I'm assuming the feds are reimbursing insurance companies. About $400 a month for family of 4 is a pretty big ask for insurance companies to absorb I would think, even with their profit margins.
jamny
Footballguy
I brought this up in another thread but figured it would get more response here.
People keep saying that the vaccine, and vaccines in general, aren't meant to necessarily prevent infection but to reduce the severity of the infection, limiting hospitalizations and deaths. Now, I believe that to be true with the covid vaccine and am thankful for it, but that is not what we were sold when these vaccines were introduced.
Here's Pfizer's press release
Is there any wonder why some people say "I told you so" now?
People keep saying that the vaccine, and vaccines in general, aren't meant to necessarily prevent infection but to reduce the severity of the infection, limiting hospitalizations and deaths. Now, I believe that to be true with the covid vaccine and am thankful for it, but that is not what we were sold when these vaccines were introduced.
Here's Pfizer's press release
They don't mention reduced severity, fewer hospitalizations and deaths. They say "preventing Covid-19" These guys have to be smart enough to know there would be variants down the road and also the history of vaccines but that didn't stop them from convincing people that getting the vax would prevent covid.
Is there any wonder why some people say "I told you so" now?
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Cool! All I have to do to protect myself from Covid is……to first get Covid. Nice to know!Told ya so
@IC FBGCav and myself aren't gonna hold our breath for apologies from @Terminalxylem or @[icon]
belljr
Footballguy
But they never sold it 100% from catching it
your link says 90% but could drop when more data is collected. So it still was never marked as 100%
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jamny
Footballguy
What % of vaccinated people have gotten covid? I think they were touting about 90%+ at the time of its release.But they never sold it 100% from catching it
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
C’mon man. You know that’s the implication. It’s a massively absurd concept to cheerlead.
Should we acknowledge that people who have already been infected have a meaningful degree of immunity? Yes.
Do some people confuse the issue — by using the term natural immunity — to imply that they don’t need to get vaccinated because their immune system is robust? Yeah.
Its not AT ALL. The implication is that natural immunity should have been contemplated in some of these vaccine passport and mandates that have been passed.
skol asylum
Footballguy
Again, that was Alpha. The virus the vaccine was meant to prevent. Seriously, attacking the very people who are part of the solution is beyond ridiculous. It's like hauling Fauci before Congress and watching right wing politicians spin and spin him into somehow being responsible for Covid for their own political gain. Enough with the politics.
belljr
Footballguy
Before variants I have no idea. But things change. Does it matter if we were told it will stop infections originally but over time it was found to prevent the other stuff? It's a fluid situation so I believe if alpha was the only variant then yes the vaccines would have done wonders from catching it.
I think what hes complaining about are the people who moved the goal posts and stated "the vaccine was never intended to prevent infections only hospitalizations and death". Several people in this very thread stating the exact thing several times.
I think the more accurate statement should be "The vaccine was created to prevent infection however the Delta and Omicron variants have led to higher infection rates than expected but the vaccine still thankfully reduces the chance of death or hospitalization."
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Dragons
Delusions of Grandeur
jamny
Footballguy
How is it about politics and Fauci? Stop it.
I'm simply saying that they sold it on "preventing covid" The average person doesn't know that it won't be effective against variants and they never stated, since the scientists do know about variants, that this would probably only be effective against Alpha. I am not attacking, just saying that the messaging wasn't clear and people that now say that the vaccine was never meant to prevent covid, but to reduce severity, are forgetting the initial claims. I'm sure some people died from covid after getting the vaccine because they thought they were protected.
I'm thankful for the vaccine and would have gotten it sooner if I didn't get covid in January 2021.
jamny
Footballguy
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Also, I think it definitely matters especially to the 20% unvaxxed.
Unvaxxed: "They told us if I get the vaccine I wont get covid"
Vaxxer: "They were wrong but it will prevent hospitalization and death"
Unvaxxed: "How do I know they are not wrong on that?"
Doug B
Footballguy
Current strains of COVID didn't exist when the vaccines were developed. Delta and Omicron are, for all intents and purposes, brand-new pathogens against which the original vaccines have limited effect.jamny said:What % of vaccinated people have gotten covid? I think they were touting about 90%+ at the time of its release.belljr said:But they never sold it 100% from catching it
skol asylum
Footballguy
Absolutely agree that messaging has been bungled constantly. I would hope most people would equate a vaccine as being similar to the flu vaccine. Not perfect but even if it doesn't prevent you from getting sick it can lessen your probability of having a more extreme outcome.jamny said:
jamny
Footballguy
Did scientists that developed the vaccines and others around the world know about possible variants when the vaccine was released? Was there any mention of variants or did they say "prevent covid" as a blanket statement? How was the average person to know that this might not be as effective preventing covid with future variants?
There were millions of people that got infected by covid before the vaccines even existed.Well ... it's kind of a tautology. There's no other way to get natural immunity that to have been infected
I am aware that you advocate for COVID vaccinations on these boards. I just think you should have conceded Alex's point.
jamny
Footballguy
When the news was announced back in November 2020, the vast majority of people in this thread were understandably very excited and thought it meant the end of covid, myself included. Because they sold it as such. Most likely knowing full well that it might not be as effective at "preventing covid" with future variants that they knew were coming.
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AAABatteries
Footballguy
jamny said:
I totally get your point but let's think about the implication of it. We have millions of people who we are saying were told they could prevent Covid (say 90-100%) and they still didn't bother to get it. If you had told them their chance was 30-40% chance of still catching Covid, how many more million wouldn't have gotten it? I have no idea if that had any impact on their language and generally speaking we need to be accurate but I don't have a huge problem with it. If folks want to say "I told you so" then more power to them.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
"they"? The media? The vaccine companies? Depending on where you researched the vaccines back then, it was known that they were only hopeful that it would reduce/stop transmission and/or be 'sterlizing' in getting infected based on the data they had. Chances were high they were right. But they had only trial data (albeit large scale ones, so reasonably good data) to go on. Post-release, multiply that times hundreds of millions of data points then add in human behaviors, and it's not shocking that the situation changed. It's still changing now. It will continue to change.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Because we have months and months of stats that demonstrate how vastly different the outcomes are for vaccinated vs unvaccinated people.jobarules said:
jamny
Footballguy
Can't argue with any of that but people should still be careful at making claims that everyone knew it didn't mean "preventing covid" when that was exactly how it was sold. I've seen it many times in this thread still and it just isn't accurate.
Huh? In May the President said "take off your masks, we dont need them anymore if vaccinated". The CDC said vaccinated people no longer need to quarantine if they are close contacts.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
I agree - as noted a few posts ago - that we should take into account people who have been previously infected. But we should be much smarter about how we communicate this message…..than some of the comments made in here.
Yep and they dont believe those stats. The same way data keeps changing is the same justification unvaxxed are giving.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
I'll echo the "huh?" back. lol He was talking about when the vaccines were about to be released. What does your reply have to do with November 2020? I'm not following what point are you trying to make.
Doug B
Footballguy
What? Variants were assured, like all respiratory viruses (really, all viruses). What was unknown was whether or not new variants would outcompete existing ones, evade vaccine protection, and to what degree they might evade protection.
...
In a way, COVID response has been a lot like living in a house while it's being built. Collection of knowledge is a wonderful thing, but we can only learn so much in real time and our reactions are necessarily a step behind that.
I agree with that.
I just never understood the anti-vax hate and the judgment and segregation that has gone on. I have many friends throughout the pandemic that didnt get vaccinated until forced to by their employer (most in the fall). I never once stayed away from them or judged them. It was their choice. Who am I to judge them? The only person I implored to get vaccinated was my wife. We had several fights about it but she was STUBBORN. She kept saying since she had Covid in Nov 2020 she didnt need it. I kept telling her all the data points that said otherwise and she kept insisting. Well, it turns out she was right all along. Im the one who was a spreader of misinformation and illiteracy. God forbid she sees the latest study. I'll never live it down.
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