*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (9 Viewers)

[Terminalxylem]

Generally I don’t think that they’re testing unless you are in a high risk category. I know of someone in the NYC area that doesn’t fall under a high risk category that almost certainly has it and they won’t test him. And this person has plenty of money and a very influential/high powered job, so it’s not that he’s a nobody.

Like everything COVID, the CDC testing guidelines are changing rapidly. There are basically three categories of patients who will be tested as it stands: fever + respiratory symptoms and either A. Recent travel to a high-risk area. B. Recent contact with a documented infection or C. Severe illness warranting hospitalization + exclusion of flu and other causes of pneumonia/ respiratory infection/ARDS.

As soon as more private tests are developed and approved, I'm sure testing will be liberalized.

Loosely related, compassionate use Remdesivir (one potential antiviral therapy) is limited to confirmed cases requiring mechanical ventilation.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

Schools in Michigan ordered to be closed starting next Monday through April 6. 

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Schools in much ordered to be closed starting next Monday through April 6. 

Yep then kids have spring break the next week so we are done until April 13th

kids are allowed to go this morning and get any belongings 

wife teaches part time so there’s a month of no income for her (she doesn’t make much but still taking a small financial  hit)

 

[Ilov80s]

Yep then kids have spring break the next week so we are done until April 13th

kids are allowed to go this morning and get any belongings 

wife teaches part time so there’s a month of no income for her (she doesn’t make much but still taking a small financial  hit)

Sounds like they are canceling spring break so we will be ask April 6. Your wife is an hourly teacher? Does she sub?

 

[Sinn Fein]

Count me in the “way over reacting” camp. The damage being done to people’s lives financially and the world economies in general by far outweigh the benefits we’re deriving from this planetary lockdown. 
 

I believe that in the course of human history, things like this happen where the herd is thinned and they can’t be stopped. Nature gets what nature wants. Ya, lots of people will die, maybe myself, maybe family. But it’s an acceptable risk given the actual likelihood of death. 
 

Not saying I want anyone to die, but I am saying that we should accept it. Cold, I know. We should care for those we can. Elderly and compromised individuals should use extra special care but the whole world should not have to stop to make it less dangerous for them. 
 

Strange times indeed, but people’s retirements are being devastated right now and the overall impact of the economic hit will have a much greater negative impact long term on way more people than had we not overreacted like we have. 
 

just all my 2 cents

Maybe, just maybe, there is more to life than money.

 

[Brony]

This #### show on the testing we are currently doing is going to be the legacy of this. We will have no idea if the lock downs that everyone is doing are working or not because we essentially have no baseline outside of death counts. 

 

[otb_lifer]

Count me in the “way over reacting” camp. The damage being done to people’s lives financially and the world economies in general by far outweigh the benefits we’re deriving from this planetary lockdown. 
 

I believe that in the course of human history, things like this happen where the herd is thinned and they can’t be stopped. Nature gets what nature wants. Ya, lots of people will die, maybe myself, maybe family. But it’s an acceptable risk given the actual likelihood of death. 
 

Not saying I want anyone to die, but I am saying that we should accept it. Cold, I know. We should care for those we can. Elderly and compromised individuals should use extra special care but the whole world should not have to stop to make it less dangerous for them. 
 

Strange times indeed, but people’s retirements are being devastated right now and the overall impact of the economic hit will have a much greater negative impact long term on way more people than had we not overreacted like we have. 
 

just all my 2 cents

wow ... tournament cancelled got ya that twisted?  SAD!

ferchrissakes, dude, get over it.  more important fish to fry. 

 

[GroveDiesel]

Like everything COVID, the CDC testing guidelines are changing rapidly. There are basically three categories of patients who will be tested as it stands: fever + respiratory symptoms and either A. Recent travel to a high-risk area. B. Recent contact with a documented infection or C. Severe illness warranting hospitalization + exclusion of flu and other causes of pneumonia/ respiratory infection/ARDS.

As soon as more private tests are developed and approved, I'm sure testing will be liberalized.

Loosely related, compassionate use Remdesivir (one potential antiviral therapy) is limited to confirmed cases requiring mechanical ventilation.

I get all of this because there is such a limited supply of tests, but without more testing, of course it’s going to be hard to prove any contact.

This is causing business, schools and people to make bad decisions based off of bad data. The schools here ignored our governor’s recommendation to cancel events of 250+ people because “there are no confirmed cases in our county”. Well yeah, if nobody is getting tested, then there won’t be any confirmed cases. That’s not the same as nobody having it.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I get all of this because there is such a limited supply of tests, but without more testing, of course it’s going to be hard to prove any contact.

This is causing business, schools and people to make bad decisions based off of bad data. The schools here ignored our governor’s recommendation to cancel events of 250+ people because “there are no confirmed cases in our county”. Well yeah, if nobody is getting tested, then there won’t be any confirmed cases. That’s not the same as nobody having it.

Yeah, well I think testing availability will ramp up quickly in the next couple weeks.

 

[T J]

wow ... tournament cancelled got ya that twisted?  SAD!

ferchrissakes, dude, get over it.  more important fish to fry. 

Nothing to do with the tourney. Nice try. Has to do with the overall impact on everything. 

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Sounds like they are canceling spring break so we will be ask April 6. Your wife is an hourly teacher? Does she sub?

Oh hadn’t heard that, makes sense though 

yeah she works for a pre-school program.  It’s held at the school but privately funded. They don’t typically get snow days so doubt they get paid for this but kind of unprecedented so who knows. 
 

she says our superintendent says our spring break is still on.  Assuming lots of vacation scheduled 

 

[otb_lifer]

Nothing to do with the tourney. Nice try. Has to do with the overall impact on everything. 

interesting that your "thin the herd" prose only surfaced after cancellation ... just a horrible take.   

be well. 

 

[T J]

Maybe, just maybe, there is more to life than money.

How about the people’s lives that don’t die that are now ruined? The people that will dies are in large part the elderly who have lived their lives for the most part, and for lack of a better way to say it, the weak. Survival of the Fittest comes to mind. Sorry, it’s really a cold hearted way to look at it I know, but i think more damage is being done via the measures being taken. 

 

[stbugs]

wow ... tournament cancelled got ya that twisted?  SAD!

ferchrissakes, dude, get over it.  more important fish to fry. 

Lol. That’s what you got out of his post? Listen, my wife and I work from home so we can weather this a bit better job wise, hopefully depending on how bad things get. There’s a lot of people who can’t just shut down and buy an extra $500 in supplies to hunker down. He’s concerned about impacting those people as well and he’s thinking that maybe in terms of overall impact that they will get hurt more by this in the long term. I’m hoping we can somehow manage both but he’s got a legitimate concern and I don’t think he’s just upset about the tournament.

 

[The Z Machine]

This #### show on the testing we are currently doing is going to be the legacy of this. We will have no idea if the lock downs that everyone is doing are working or not because we essentially have no baseline outside of death counts. 

Yup. And that's why the closures and other actions seem so draconian. The public health officials have very little data to bar their modeling on right now due to the extremely poor roll out of the tests. If Antigua and Barbuda can execute as many tests as entire states, then something went horribly awry.

 

[SayWhat?]

We should just accept a mass onslaught of deaths that would overwhelm our hospital resources may be the worst single take in the history of this forum. And that’s saying something.  Oof.

 

[SayWhat?]

How about the people’s lives that don’t die that are now ruined? 

Please expand.

 

[T J]

interesting that your "thin the herd" prose only surfaced after cancellation ... just a horrible take.   

be well. 

Well, you’re wrong as to the timing of my mindset. That was a coincidence. When I see people losing their retirements and all these things closing, canceling, etc... then it feels like it’s just too much and impact of these things is outweighing the damage the virus itself can cause.

 

[otb_lifer]

We just just accept a mass onslaught of deaths that would overwhelm our hospital resources may be the worst single take in the history of this forum. And that’s saying something.  Oof.

it's remarkable, really - un effin' believable.

 

[T J]

Lol. That’s what you got out of his post? Listen, my wife and I work from home so we can weather this a bit better job wise, hopefully depending on how bad things get. There’s a lot of people who can’t just shut down and buy an extra $500 in supplies to hunker down. He’s concerned about impacting those people as well and he’s thinking that maybe in terms of overall impact that they will get hurt more by this in the long term. I’m hoping we can somehow manage both but he’s got a legitimate concern and I don’t think he’s just upset about the tournament.

Yep

 

[T J]

We should just accept a mass onslaught of deaths that would overwhelm our hospital resources may be the worst single take in the history of this forum. And that’s saying something.  Oof.

And yet there it is. Nature doesn’t care. It’s not the first time something like this has happened and it won’t be the last. Something tells me that we have to accept that on some level.

 

[GoBirds]

I’m a visual guy so this was helpful and thought good to share. 
 

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

 

[SayWhat?]

And yet there it is.

What, logic?

 

[Ilov80s]

Oh hadn’t heard that, makes sense though 

yeah she works for a pre-school program.  It’s held at the school but privately funded. They don’t typically get snow days so doubt they get paid for this but kind of unprecedented so who knows. 
 

she says our superintendent says our spring break is still on.  Assuming lots of vacation scheduled 

Oh I do suppose each district could have that as an option maybe. I know a lot of students and coworkers had trips planned that week. I was going to Cancun but cancelled about 2 weeks ago because I didn’t trust the virus. 

 

[bostonfred]

I believe that in the course of human history, things like this happen where the herd is thinned and they can’t be stopped. Nature gets what nature wants. Ya, lots of people will die, maybe myself, maybe family. But it’s an acceptable risk given the actual likelihood of death. 

The purpose of "social distancing" isn't to prevent everyone from getting it.  

1) It prevents the people who are most susceptible from getting it. We are trading liberty for lives. We do that all the time. That's why there's a speed limit and drunk driving laws. There's a very real calculation of how many lives we are willing to lose to go 5mph faster on the highway, or be able to blow a .08 instead of .00 because people want to be able to have a beer when they're out. We do financial calculations for lives, too - and not just governments and big companies. Does your car have a backup camera?  Lane departure warning?  If not, you've chosen money over safety.  

 

[The Z Machine]

Well, you’re wrong as to the timing of my mindset. That was a coincidence. When I see people losing their retirements and all these things closing, canceling, etc... then it feels like it’s just too much and impact of these things is outweighing the damage the virus itself can cause.

I see your point, as cold as it is. But the impact we will see from a massive epidemic in the US isn't just that a bunch of elderly will die. Rather, then entire medical system would collapse under the strain. Lots of younger people with treatable diseases wouldn't get treatment. Things like accidents, pendicitis, strep throat, etc. Lots of mild cases would turn into tragic ones.

That is unless you wanted to institute an cut of for treatment at say, age 75. But rationing of care like that is unheard of and certainly inhumane.

 

[gump]

https://www.facebook.com/funnymaine/photos/a.914630968675770/1688593517946174/?type=3&theater

 

[[icon]]

I’m biased by living with a high risk person, but please consider going along with social distancing even if you’re not concerned about yourself getting it. 
While I know there are some people that NEED to keep working, every person who stays home is one less person collecting and passing germs to people who may not be able to fight this one. 
 

 

In times like these we need folks to stop being selfish #######s and start operating with the greater good. Sacrifice and common sense are going to be what bests this bugs 

Sadly the US is full of selfish #######s (many on display in this thread), so we are set up to feel some serious pain from this. 

 

[SayWhat?]

I see your point, as cold as it is. But the impact we will see from a massive epidemic in the US isn't just that a bunch of elderly will die. Rather, then entire medical system would collapse under the strain. Lots of younger people with treatable diseases wouldn't get treatment. Things like accidents, pendicitis, strep throat, etc. Lots of mild cases would turn into tragic ones.

This is exactly why you don’t just let this thing run its course without putting some measures in place to lessen the impact.

 

[[icon]]

I’m a visual guy so this was helpful and thought good to share. 
 

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

Those guys are highly biased and those charts have been crucified as pretty garbage. Just FYI. 
 

case a: the chart that shifts to Logrithmic scale midway  

 

[Terminalxylem]

We should just accept a mass onslaught of deaths that would overwhelm our hospital resources may be the worst single take in the history of this forum. And that’s saying something.  Oof.

Yep. Obviously doesn't work in healthcare. Or have elderly relatives/friends. Or know anyone with chronic illnesses. Or have compassion for his fellow human being.

 

[bostonfred]

I believe that in the course of human history, things like this happen where the herd is thinned and they can’t be stopped. Nature gets what nature wants. Ya, lots of people will die, maybe myself, maybe family. But it’s an acceptable risk given the actual likelihood of death. 

2) social distancing may not prevent everyone from getting it, but it will cause people to get it at a lower rate.  If we all got sick in March, the hospitals would be completely overrun, health care workers would be too sick to help anyone, and many healthy people who contracted the virus would die preventable deaths.  Even if most people eventually get this,  it's much better if they get it gradually over the next several months when the healthcare system can handle it. 

This isn't just about the mortality rate of this virus, either.  Someone with cancer might avoid the hospital because they are afraid to catch the virus and die a preventable death from cancer.  I've already read examples of people going to the emergency room for serious issues like a broken bone and turning around when they see people coughing. 

That might be an overreaction on their parts, but the bigger concern is that instead of patients choosing not to get treatment, they won't be able to get treatment, because there aren't enough hospital beds or doctors/ nurses to support them.  And more preventable deaths will occur.  

 

[mr roboto]

I will say that it’s terrifying if your source of income is variable. 
 

My friend is a teacher and their school shut down but he will still get paid. His wife is Dir of Ops for nursing homes and obviously is still employed (they are very worried). 
 

Our household - I’m in sales (highly commission based) and my wife runs the businesses (public B2C). So yeah. This is gonna be tough. 

 

[Ilov80s]

And yet there it is. Nature doesn’t care. It’s not the first time something like this has happened and it won’t be the last. Something tells me that we have to accept that on some level.

We’ve been interfering with nature’s thinning for a long time and we never win but we lose a lot more slowly than we used to. No reason to roll over now. 

 

[Ilov80s]

I will say that it’s terrifying if your source of income is variable. 
 

My friend is a teacher and their school shut down but he will still get paid. His wife is Dir of Ops for nursing homes and obviously is still employed (they are very worried). 
 

Our household - I’m in sales (highly commission based) and my wife runs the businesses (public B2C). So yeah. This is gonna be tough. 

I would employers are able to ease that. Pay them part of their pay while business is closed/down and then slowly skim it back at a small % over an extended period of time. My local school district is trying to arrange to do that for their hourly staff.

 

[bostonfred]

I believe that in the course of human history, things like this happen where the herd is thinned and they can’t be stopped. Nature gets what nature wants. Ya, lots of people will die, maybe myself, maybe family. But it’s an acceptable risk given the actual likelihood of death. 

3) Social distancing slows the spread of the virus, which means fewer people will have contracted there virus by the time a vaccine is available, and there will be more time to learn better treatment methods.  It's possible that, instead of millions of people dying, it will be thousands, and that lessons learned from this process will help prevent deaths from future potential outbreaks as well. 

 

[Godsbrother]

Don't forget food for your pets.

That's right.  You're going to want them nice and plump when you have to eat them

 

[stbugs]

This is exactly why you don’t just let this thing run its course without putting some measures in place to lessen the impact.

Right and while I might not agree with his let everyone die comment. It’s pretty apparent that the people in here can go out and buy supplies and hunker down. I don’t think you guys get that there’s a lot of people who can’t and that’s what he thinks will be a bigger problem. I can’t say that I disagree to a point. Don’t be shocked if we stem the ties of the virus but then have a much bigger homeless issue if the lock down extends for months. Again, he may not be right, but I definitely think that people in here aren’t paying attention to folks who can’t afford to prep and those people are the ones who will likely lose all of their income and potentially long term their jobs. 

 

[comfortably numb]

Anyone have a link to a nice easy to read chart that shows the difference between flu/covid/allergies

I'm having my office prop all interior doors in the open position. 

 

[bostonfred]

Not saying I want anyone to die, but I am saying that we should accept it. Cold, I know. We should care for those we can. Elderly and compromised individuals should use extra special care but the whole world should not have to stop to make it less dangerous for them. 
 

Strange times indeed, but people’s retirements are being devastated right now and the overall impact of the economic hit will have a much greater negative impact long term on way more people than had we not overreacted like we have. 

4) the financial impact of social distancing will be severe.  No question.  But we can't compare that with the status quo. The choice isn't between social distancing and no virus, but between social distancing and potentially millions of deaths.  

There is a real financial impact to millions of people dying.  

And the fear of death drives behavior.  This "overreaction" is largely private, not public. Yes, schools are closing, but the event that really changed things in my opinion was the cancellation of the NBA game while fans were in the seats.  Sports leagues canceling or postponing seasons, people choosing not to go to restaurants and bars - these are all private decisions that are impacting the markets.  That may be an "overreaction", but it's the actual reaction of the market to an apparently deadly virus. 

If you're railing against that overreaction, the question is whether a peel the band aid approach right now impacts the markets more or less than the short and long term financial impact of millions of people dying preventable deaths and people being afraid to go anywhere that they could catch this. 

That's a financial impact that is easy to imagine but hard to measure, but that doesn't mean you get to ignore it.

 

[GoBirds]

Anyone have a link to a nice easy to read chart that shows the difference between flu/covid/allergies

I'm having my office prop all interior doors in the open position. 

Posted one upstream I found helpful, some of those pushing the fear of this seam to disagree with it but it’s a helpful comparison to create some perspective. 

 

[Godsbrother]

I went to the office (Thurs) and only 1/3 of the people went to work. Our company has not started WFH for U.S. offices yet but it’s imminent.

Three weeks ago our company stopped all international travel for business

Two weeks ago they asked for an assessment from each manager on their team's ability to work from home

This week then banned all domestic travel for business and are allowing no visitors in the building.  Still no word on WFH.  I have no idea what they are waiting for.

 

[T J]

Yep. Obviously doesn't work in healthcare. Or have elderly relatives/friends. Or know anyone with chronic illnesses. Or have compassion for his fellow human being.

Actually I’m personally probably in a higher risk group.  And I certainly have elderly relatives including my 80yr old mom and my 80s+ in-laws. I’m don’t feel this way in a vacuum. I understand the risk and am willing to accept it. 

 

[mr roboto]

As much as this sucks if we went on w/life as usual we would have Italy/like situations and a collapse of health care systems. Hell even now there may be localized healthcare systems overwhelmed soon. 

 

[msommer]

Right and while I might not agree with his let everyone die comment. It’s pretty apparent that the people in here can go out and buy supplies and hunker down. I don’t think you guys get that there’s a lot of people who can’t and that’s what he thinks will be a bigger problem. I can’t say that I disagree to a point. Don’t be shocked if we stem the ties of the virus but then have a much bigger homeless issue if the lock down extends for months. Again, he may not be right, but I definitely think that people in here aren’t paying attention to folks who can’t afford to prep and those people are the ones who will likely lose all of their income and potentially long term their jobs. 

Let's make that something learned from this event and work to ensure the people who live paycheck to paycheck get better terms of employment, that those without healthcare get access. How about that?

 

[Senor Schmutzig]

No travel until May 15th at the earliest. As a sales exec that spends a good bit of time on the road and gets antsy if I'm in the office for more than 3 weeks at a time, this is going to suck.

The same goes for my team that is used to travelling 50% of the time also. This is what we do. We travel, we meet customers, we go to conferences, we take awesome trips to cool places, all in the name of networking, and building and strengthening relationships with our partners. Yeah, they are boondoggles, but they are OUR boondoggles!

I understand the reasoning behind it and agree with the whole "flattening the curve" philosophy but not travelling is going to take some adjustment. I can only clean my office so many times.

HR sent a note out yesterday to management indicating that they would consider allowing people to work from home if they fall into the following categories:

• Team member has identified exposure concerns as identified in the most recent corporate policy update
  
• Team member has identified that they are part of the at risk population, such as having a chronic illness, compromised immune system, or elderly.
  
• Team member resides or frequently cares for a family member who is part of the of the abovementioned at risk population.
  
• Team member has a child at home due to a school closure and does not have alternative childcare arrangements.
  

They also indicated that they would be identifying certain "team member segments" (please be Sales, please be Sales) to test working from home. We'll see how that goes.  

 

[otb_lifer]

As much as this sucks if we went on w/life as usual we would have Italy/like situations and a collapse of health care systems. Hell even now there may be localized healthcare systems overwhelmed soon. 

guess you missed the "THIN THE HERD" memo 

 

[SayWhat?]

Actually I’m personally probably in a higher risk group.  And I certainly have elderly relatives including my 80yr old mom and my 80s+ in-laws. I’m don’t feel this way in a vacuum. I understand the risk and am willing to accept it. 

So you’ve said that this should just run it’s course and let nature decide “survival of the fittest,” because otherwise people’s “lives will be ruined.” (Which you haven’t expanded on.)  So let potentially millions die instead of tens of thousands because some temporary restrictions seem excessive? 

You understand the irony, no?  You don’t think people dying ruins lives? Especially the amount it would likely be? There would be young and healthy people with no comorbities dying preventable deaths.  Business leaders, sisters, doctors, homeless people, children, athletes...sure it would wipe out a higher percentage of  elderly and people with pre-existing health conditions, but not just them.  There would be no discrimination from this disease.  Just seems very short sighted.

 

[T J]

Right and while I might not agree with his let everyone die comment. It’s pretty apparent that the people in here can go out and buy supplies and hunker down. I don’t think you guys get that there’s a lot of people who can’t and that’s what he thinks will be a bigger problem. I can’t say that I disagree to a point. Don’t be shocked if we stem the ties of the virus but then have a much bigger homeless issue if the lock down extends for months. Again, he may not be right, but I definitely think that people in here aren’t paying attention to folks who can’t afford to prep and those people are the ones who will likely lose all of their income and potentially long term their jobs. 

I’m not saying let everyone die. I think we should care for those we can and elderly and compromised should use extreme caution and incorporate significant lifestyle changes for the time being. 

What I Am saying is that the this sort of thing seems like an act of God and we should accept that we can’t save everyone. It happens. It sucks, but it happens. Does everyone’s life need to be so radically altered in a negative way?

And for the record, my take has zero to do with the tournament being canceled. I understand that entirely. It’s the fear. It’s the markets. It’s the people who will get put out of work, the businesses that will close, the retirement savings lost, the radical reaction to this. 

It all just feels like we’re creating a bigger long term problem. 

 

[shader]

ITV: "Healthcare on brink of collapsing': Doctors share stories from inside the Italy coronavirus quarantine

Whole article worth a read.... Some wild outtakes: 

"She said: "There are a lot of young people in our Intensive Care Units (ICUs) - our youngest is a 38-year-old who had had no comorbidities (underlying health problems). 

"A lot of patients need help with breathing but there are not enough ventilators. 

"They've told us that starting from now we'll have to choose who to intubate - priority will go to the young or those without comorbidities. 

"At Niguarda, the other big hospital in Milan, they are not intubating anyone over 60, which is really, really young."m

--- 

Right now, if we get 10,000 people in Italy in need of ventilators - when we only have 3,000 in the country - 7,000 people will die.

"Rome right now is like where Milan was 10 days ago. In 10 days there has been an incredible escalation.

--- 

We've had no critical cases among children but with children, viruses are much less aggressive - think chickenpox or measles. 

"But the very young are crazy carriers. 

"A child with no symptoms will go to visit its grandparents, and basically kill them. So it’s essential to avoid contact between them".
 

---- 

He added: "You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia.

This doctors words were chilling.  This is becoming a ventilators problem.  If his words are accurate, than the death rate will be the number of people needing to be admitted to the ICU needing ventilators minus the ventilators an ICU has.

According to google, the USA has 62,000 ventilators.  As long as you're under that limit, the death rate will stay low.  Once you pass that, everyone that gets admitted and can't get a ventilator will die.

I've posted it a few times, but there should be a worldwide push to quickly manufacture and distribute ventilators.  

@icon posted a spreadsheet last night that I'm still struggling to process as it relates to worldwide data...but it gives us a benchmark for this problem.

According to the spreadsheet (assuming 5% of people need ICU, a variable that could be higher), we reach our ventilator capacity on April 7th.

That means this country has a month to solve the problem, in a best-case scenario.