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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (10 Viewers)

So you’ve said that this should just run it’s course and let nature decide “survival of the fittest,” because otherwise people’s “lives will be ruined.” (Which you haven’t expanded on.)  So let potentially millions die instead of tens of thousands because some temporary restrictions seem excessive? 

You understand the irony, no?  You don’t think people dying ruins lives? Especially the amount it would likely be? There would be young and healthy people with no comorbities dying preventable deaths.  Business leaders, sisters, doctors, homeless people, children, athletes...sure it would wipe out a higher percentage of  elderly and people with pre-existing health conditions, but not just them.  There would be no discrimination from this disease.  Just seems very short sighted.
I hear you and I’m aware my take is hard core. Look, it’s all happening regardless of my opinion, so take my take for what it is - an opinion and you can consider me an ##### from there. 

 
Actually I’m personally probably in a higher risk group.  And I certainly have elderly relatives including my 80yr old mom and my 80s+ in-laws. I’m don’t feel this way in a vacuum. I understand the risk and am willing to accept it. 
Great. What is the risk you or someone you care about is adversely impacted by C-19? What is the likelihood our healthcare system will be overrun in the short term if we abandon/ease off mitigation strategies?

And I'd like to see a calculation which compares the financial/human cost of doing nothing vs. current containment measures, as well as that of your ideal course of action.

Help me expand my understanding to match yours, so I don't have to rely upon my training and all those pesky "experts".

 
mr roboto said:
Any guesses on the timing of peak social and commercial disruption?  Few weeks? Couple months?
My company estimated peak impact on our hospitals to be mid-June. No clue how that translates.

 
I hear you and I’m aware my take is hard core. Look, it’s all happening regardless of my opinion, so take my take for what it is - an opinion and you can consider me an ##### from there. 
Just to be clear, I don’t consider you whatever word you used.  
 

I just don’t understand thinking there would not be similar financial (and worse) ramifications if we all just sat around and did nothing.  You actually think if millions were sick and hundreds of thousands or millions were dying (especially with hospital care available to only the critical), that anyone would venture out and about? You think life would just go on as normal and people’s actions would mirror the last century? Business as usual?

 
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I was walking on the sidewalk toward the front entrance to my building this morning. It's just me and one 20-something about 15 feet ahead of me. He coughed three times in about 20 seconds just before the front entrance. If he'd have looked back at that moment, he'd have the most Minnesota passive aggressive death stare imaginable. I think one aspect of this thing that I've not seen mentioned is the indentured servants many US companies employ (aka Indian labor) in the US. These guys literally can't afford to miss work, and I imagine give no ####s about social distancing or what not if it means they could end up getting sent back home.

 
Interesting read from an Italian on Reddit. Take with the usual grain of salt with first hand reports like this: 
 

From an Italian to the rest of the world: you have no idea about what's coming.

(First thing first I'm sorry for any eventual grammar errors but English isn't my first lenguage
Second, this is a repost because in another sub people asked me to post it on r/Coronavirus but it doesn't accept it, so I came here as the rules advised).

As I think everybody knows, Italy is on quarantine because of the coronavirus outbreak. That means that everybody has to stay home unless you've got valid reasons to go out.

This situation is bad, but what's worse is seeing the rest of the world behaving as if nothing's going to happen to them.
We know what you're thinking because we were in your place too.

Let's see how thing developed (keep in mind it all happened in around 2 weeks):

STAGE 1. You know that coronavirus exists, and the first cases begin to appear in your country. Well, nothing to worry about, it's just a bad flu! I mean I'm not 75+yo so what could possibly happen to me? I'm safe, everybody is overreacting, what's the need to go out with masks and stock toilet paper? I'm going to live my life as usual, there's no need to freak out. 

STAGE 2. The number of cases begins to be significant. They declare "red zone" and quarantine one or two small cities where they found the first cases and a lot of people were infected (~22/02). Well that's sad and somewhat worrisome but they're taking care of it so nothing to panic about. There are some deaths but they're all old people with other pathologies so the media is just trying to create panic for views, how shameful. People lead their life as usual, I mean I'm not going to stop going out and meeting my friends and so on am I? There's no need to. It's not going to get me. Everybody's fine here.

STAGE 3. The number of cases is rapidly going up. They almost doubled in one day. There's more deaths. They declare red zones and quarantine the 4 regions where the majority of cases are registered (7/03). In Italy at this point 1/4 of the county is under quarantine, schools and universities are closed in these areas but bars, work places, restaurants and so on are still open. The decree gets released by some newspaper before it should so around 10k people from the red zone escape from the area that same night to return to their homes in the rest of Italy (this will be important later). Most of the population of the remaing 3/4 of Italy still does what it always does, a portion of the quarantined too. They still don't realize the seriousness of the situation. I mean yes, everywhere you turn they talk about the coronavirus, they advise to wash your hands and limit your going out, assemblies of large numbers of people are forbidden and so on, every 5 minutes on TV they remind you of these rules. But it still hasn't settled in people's minds.

STAGE 4. The number of cases is heavily increasing. Schools and universities are closed everywhere for at least a month. It's a national health emergency. Hospitals are at capacity, entire units are cleared to make space for coronavirus patients. There aren't enough doctors and nurses, they're calling retired ones and those who are in the last 2 years of university, there's no shifts any more, just work as much as you can. Of course doctors and nurses are getting infected, spreading it to their families and so on. There's too many cases of pneumonia, too many people who need ICU and not enough places for everyone. The same goes for respiraty aids (I don't know if that's the correct name). At this point is like being at war: doctors have to choose who to treat based on their survival chance, that means that the elderly and trauma/stroke patients can't get treated because corona cases have the priority. There's not enough resources for everybody so they have to be distributed for the best outcome. I wish I was joking but it's literally what has been happening. People have died because there wasn't any more space, I have a doctor friend who called me devasteted because he had to let 3 people die that day, nurses crying because they see people dying in front of them and can't do anything aside from offering some oxygen. A friend's relatice died yesterday of corona because they couldn't treat him. Chemios have been delayed until further notice. It's chaos, the system is collapsing. Coronavirus and the crisis it's provoking is all you hear about everywhere. 

STAGE 5. Rember the 10k idiot who ran from the red zone to the rest of Italy? Well, the entire country has to be declared under quarantine (9/03). The goal is to delay the spreading of the virus as much as possible. People can go to work, do the grocery shopping, go to the farmacy, and all businesses are still open because otherwise the economy would collapse (it already is), but you can't move from your comune (which is like a municipality I guess) unless you have a valid reason. Now there's fear, you see a lot of people with masks and gloves around but there are still are people who think that they're invincible, who go to restaurants in large groups, hang out with friends to drink and so on. Next step.

STAGE 6. 2 days later, it's announced that all (most) businesses are closed: bars, restaurants, shopping centers, all kinds of shops etc. Everything except supermarkets and pharmacies. You can move around only if you have an autocertification with you, which is an official document in which you declare your name, where you're coming from, where you're going and what for. There are a lot of police check points, if you're found outside without a valid reason you risk a fine up to €206, and if you're a known positive patient you risk from 1 to 12 years of jail for homicide. 

So that's what the situation is like now today as of the 12/03.

Keep in mind that it all happened in around 2 weeks, 5 DAYS FROM STAGE 3 TO NOW. 

The rest of the world apart from Italy, China and Korea is still at stage 1, beginning to go into stage 2, so let me tell you this: you have no idea what's coming to get you. I know because 2 weeks ago I was the one who had no idea and though that it wasn't that bad. But it is. And not because the virus alone is particularly dangerous or deadly, but for all the consequences it brings. It's hard to see all these countries act like it's not coming and not taking the precautions that are necessary for the well-being of its citizens while they still can, so please if you're reading this try to act in your best interest.
This problem isn't going to solve itself by ignoring it. Just wondering how many undiscovered cases there might be in America alone is scary, and they're in for a big, big trouble because of how their country is run.

Our government for once did a good job I must say. The actions taken were drastic but necessary, and this may be the only way to limit the spreading. It's working in China so we hope it will work here to (it's already working in some of the first red zones which we're quarantined before everybody else). Also they're taking measures to protect us citizens such as suspending mortgage payments for next months, help for shop owners who were obligated to close and so on.

I realize that these takes are really difficult, if not impossible, to take in some countries and it's really worrying to think about what it could mean in global scale. I see a very dark time ahead of us all over the world and it makes me so angry to see all these countries not taking action while they can.
I wonder if this pandemic will be a turning point in our society, what do you think? 

So guys, if there are cases where you live, then the virus is spreading, and you're maybe 1 or 2 weeks behind us, but you'll get to our point eventually.
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE take any precaution you can take, don't act like it's not going to get you, and, if you can, STAY HOME.

(Avete capito italiani? STATE. A. CASA.)

Edit: although this is tagged as unverified content, you can talk to any Italian and they will tell you that the situation is exactly this. My goal isn't to create panic but to inform people about what's really going on. 

I may add that yes, you can go out to walk your dog and go grocery shopping but you have to follow the 1 metre rule (people are literally avoiding each other as much as possible on the streets) and you need to have your autocertification with you. Everybody is strongly advised to stay home unless for basic necessities, and at this point whoever goes out without a real reason is an idiot. Some "campaigns" have been launched to sensibilize people to stay home (like #iorestoacasa, litelly "i stay home"). Also some factories and other workplaces like that are still running, but at least in my city everything else is closed, from shops to bars to restaurant.
Also yes, there's food for everybody and it's guaranteed by the government that it will stay this way.

The best way to stop the spreading is to reduce human contact as much as possible, if you can stay home!

 
Went back to Costco at about 4:30 this afternoon.  It was busy, but NOTHING like this morning.  Went in like normal, other than the fact that there were literally ZERO carts near the store entrance.  They were instead scattered around the parking lot, in clusters of 10-20, in addition to all of the metal "cart corrals" being packed.  Inside, I pretty much got everything I was there for.... eggs, milk, half and half, snacks, booze, and lots of meat.  Enough to last a month, roughly.  They also had kids Benedryl, tylenol, and vitamins on sale, so I grabbed some of each.  

Things they were out of.... toilet paper, paper towels, tissues/kleenex, water (no bottles of any size), antibacterial wipes, and organic ground beef.  Mostly pretty much what I expected. 

On my way out, I asked the guy checking me out if they re-stock the TP daily.  He said that they do, but it's been selling out within an hour or two every day.  I may go back tomorrow and, if it's not as crazy as this morning was, grab some.  My gut says we will be quarantined soon.  Public schools here (Ventura County) are closing Monday 3/16, until at least April 10th.  Los Angeles County is something similar (not sure on the dates, but they're closing).  

I coach my 7YO son's baseball team, and we just had our first game on Monday evening (lost 9-7).  Got an email tonight that says all little league activities are suspended indefinitely.  My mind went to "What if the season is a wrap, and I end up not coaching next year?  What if my career coaching record ends at 0-1?  I can't let that happen.  Need to coach again next year!"  Sometimes it's funny where your mind drifts to in times like these.  

That said, I was also thinking today about how I would normally be so incredibly bummed about all of the sports cancellations.  NCAA tourney< even though it's not as great as it once was, is like Christmas morning for me.   TPC Sawgrass also.  Not to mention baseball opening day, the NBA, and the upcoming NFL draft (still yet to be determined how that is impacted by all of this).  And, while I still get bummed thinking about all of those things, there is so much more to think about.  My kids (9, 7, and 4).  My parents (70 and 69).  My GF (a widow) and her 13YO daughter.  How I would do just about anything to protect the people closest to me.  Sports becomes a minor detail, even though I am admittedly as big of a sports nut as anyone.  This really puts things in perspective, and in a big hurry.  
These doomsdayers who run to the store at any sign of an issue (weather, etc) are the worst of the worst. And not very smart. Yeah, what is the 1st thing I need to stockpile hmmm..oh yeah 7000 rolls of toilet paper. Was in a CVS yesterday and this clown was grilling the employee if they had anymore toilet paper and sanitizer. Employee I could tell was trying not to laugh and I shook my head as I walked by.

 
Actually looks like 3M cranked up production in late February. Federal Govt probably should have helped jumpstart that. 

 
Isolating cases and slowing down the spread.

 I fully admit I may be wrong, however shutting down the majority of the worlds major economies is something that has never happened before.  This leads me to believe that this is more serious than what you think it is. I respect your opinion and how you arrived at it, but I(and most of the world from what I can tell) have a completely opposite opinion.
A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals.

You didn't answer the question, what is your concern with testing?  We don't have a cure, we don't have a vaccine. 

The obvious practical reasoning behind isolating and distancing our population is to slow it down. In the end it will be all but useless stopping the spread, but slowing it down will ease this fear.  Slowing it down will ease the burden on healthcare.

It is neither more nor less serious than I think it is.  It is a contagious disease, add it to the list.

 
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Somehow Tampa Bay Downs appears to be running today. We’re considering going and sitting in the open air section on the outskirts. Not sure if it’ll be empty, or jammed with every sports-craving junkie in town.

 
I did a costco run last night. Wow that was a lot of people and I imagine the weekend will be worse. Guy at register jokingly said I wont ask if you found everything you need because you didn't. It got a chuckle out of me.

I bought a fresh baked cherry pie that must weigh 10 lbs. ####### delicious.

 
Somehow Tampa Bay Downs appears to be running today. We’re considering going and sitting in the open air section on the outskirts. Not sure if it’ll be empty, or jammed with every sports-craving junkie in town.
interesting ... Aqueduct/Santa Anita/Oaklawn are all running with no attendees allowed. 

 
Somehow Tampa Bay Downs appears to be running today. We’re considering going and sitting in the open air section on the outskirts. Not sure if it’ll be empty, or jammed with every sports-craving junkie in town.
I know it's not a popular opinion in this thread, but I would go if it was planned or you had time.  I am doing my best to spend money to help out local businesses where I can, while being prudent about it.  Last weekend there was a crawfish festival, and while attendance was down, it was an outdoor event with a local chamber of businesses and we spent more money than usual while there.  

I understand the need for social distancing, and we are trying not to take any unnecessary chances, but we are not stopping our lives either.  We are diligent in regarding to washing our hands (way too much), steering clear of people that are coughing, etc... but you can't stop everything.

The economic fallout from this virus is going to be vast, and longer felt than the virus itself, imho.  Hopefully the government can address this, but at this point, I'm not trusting that the split system we have in place is going to be able to get anything meaningful done.  

 
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Goods production and distribution is going to be the real problem because they don't have a WFH option.

People working in those industries typically don't have a lot of resources and live paycheck to paycheck, which means they go to work unless they physically can't. 

Many business owners will weigh risks of infecting their staff vs losing customers and potentially going out of business. 

 
Great. What is the risk you or someone you care about is adversely impacted by C-19? What is the likelihood our healthcare system will be overrun in the short term if we abandon/ease off mitigation strategies?

And I'd like to see a calculation which compares the financial/human cost of doing nothing vs. current containment measures, as well as that of your ideal course of action.

Help me expand my understanding to match yours, so I don't have to rely upon my training and all those pesky "experts".
Well, I never said do nothing. There’s a huge difference though between doing nothing and doing what we’re doing. 
 

Sure, take precautions, but put everything on hold? For how long? And what happens when we resume and it re-surfaces, which it will. Put everything back on hold again? And then again the next time? And the time after that? That’s not the answer. That would be more devastating globally and individually than the alternative. I believe that. 
 

I respect the educated take of the health experts. Flatten the curve so the impact is spread out. I get that. But the curve can only get flattened so many times. How long is acceptable for all the shut downs to continue before we say enough? 

 
Problem runs deeper. You don’t just hand out out and say here you go. Drugs, beds, and expertise are also needed and we are not prepared.
It sounds Ike from Icon is posting from Italy, the ventilators/respirators are the limiting reactant here though.

 
It sounds Ike from Icon is posting from Italy, the ventilators/respirators are the limiting reactant here though.
With the current number of ventilators it is. But you may note that no one has said that more ventialtors will solve all problems. It just moves the bottleneck to somewhere else. Until health care workers start dropping because of sickness, overwork or similar. 

 
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I mean, I am glad that they are taking some steps around here and cancelling sporting events for the schools and the colleges are closing down.    However, despite my son being told to prepare and have stuff at home in case school gets cancelled in the future, the tones of all the emails that I have seen have been that WI is still a low risk state and that they are for some reason going to wait until there is a confirmed case.   I don't get this mentality at all, and I this is why I fear we might get hit harder than some countries who are willing to clamp down hard.  

 
I mean, I am glad that they are taking some steps around here and cancelling sporting events for the schools and the colleges are closing down.    However, despite my son being told to prepare and have stuff at home in case school gets cancelled in the future, the tones of all the emails that I have seen have been that WI is still a low risk state and that they are for some reason going to wait until there is a confirmed case.   I don't get this mentality at all, and I this is why I fear we might get hit harder than some countries who are willing to clamp down hard.  
Same here in South Florida. Don't understand the mentality of waiting until a student is reported as contaminated before making a drastic move like closing the schools. Stupid and short-sighted. I won't go so far as saying it's a cultural thing but I'm close. 

 
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I mean, I am glad that they are taking some steps around here and cancelling sporting events for the schools and the colleges are closing down.    However, despite my son being told to prepare and have stuff at home in case school gets cancelled in the future, the tones of all the emails that I have seen have been that WI is still a low risk state and that they are for some reason going to wait until there is a confirmed case.   I don't get this mentality at all, and I this is why I fear we might get hit harder than some countries who are willing to clamp down hard.  
Having to explain to people that it’s already likely here and they just don’t know about it is a real painful part of this. 

 
With the current number of ventilators it is. But you may note that no one has said that more ventialtors will solve all problems. It just moves the bottleneck to somewhere else. Until health care workers start dropping because of sickeness, overwork or similar. 
How long would it take to train Nat Guard and military to operate them?

 
No travel until May 15th at the earliest. As a sales exec that spends a good bit of time on the road and gets antsy if I'm in the office for more than 3 weeks at a time, this is going to suck.

The same goes for my team that is used to travelling 50% of the time also. This is what we do. We travel, we meet customers, we go to conferences, we take awesome trips to cool places, all in the name of networking, and building and strengthening relationships with our partners. Yeah, they are boondoggles, but they are OUR boondoggles!

I understand the reasoning behind it and agree with the whole "flattening the curve" philosophy but not travelling is going to take some adjustment. I can only clean my office so many times.

HR sent a note out yesterday to management indicating that they would consider allowing people to work from home if they fall into the following categories:

  • Team member has identified exposure concerns as identified in the most recent corporate policy update
  • Team member has identified that they are part of the at risk population, such as having a chronic illness, compromised immune system, or elderly.
  • Team member resides or frequently cares for a family member who is part of the of the abovementioned at risk population.
  • Team member has a child at home due to a school closure and does not have alternative childcare arrangements.
They also indicated that they would be identifying certain "team member segments" (please be Sales, please be Sales) to test working from home. We'll see how that goes.  
Can you do some of your sales work from your home office? If you couldn't meet face to face with customers, could you execute some of your job functions? Can you win any sales at all?

There are a lot of us in this boat. If we are locked out of our offices, labs, and customer sites, it will be difficult or impossible to execute our jobs.

 
China media is saying it could shut off supply of drugs to US.  Link
Continued blame shifting by The State as it continues to paint the picture that the U.S. is to blame and not the Communists.

They're already screwed as this event has revealed just how dangerously connected we are to China.

Just like we turned ourselves into a net producer of oil, I think this will ultimately be a positive for us as we reclaim a lot of manufacturing and logistics business for our own.

 
Having to explain to people that it’s already likely here and they just don’t know about it is a real painful part of this. 
Does the notion that it’s likely already there yet no one is so sick they even notice mean anything to you? It does to me but probably not at all the same as it does to you. 

 
A few random thoughts I've been having and perhaps they've been addressed here, but frankly every morning when I wake up there are seeming 10 new pages in this thread.

-Why are the NBA players being publicly named?  Isn't this a violation of HIPAA or other privacy acts?  

-If are are naming NBA players, are we going to just make a public database for everyone that has tested positive to help curb the spread?

-People are #####ing all the time about lack of tests (your humble poster included), but I mean, every Tom **** and Jane want a test if they wake up with a cough.  There should be some sort of process in place where there are thermal thermometers that take your temp, if you have a fever, you are given a temp, if not, come back another day.  All drive through.  I mean urgent care centers are overwhelmed by parents or nervous nancies with coughs or 99.4 fevers demanding a CoVid test.  Not only is this a lack of resources, but you are exposing yourselves to other potential cases.  Just seemingly makes no sense and our country should have better resources to handle this which is seemingly simple, imo.  Okay, maybe this was more a rant than a quesiton

 
Jeesh... listening to Michael Osterholm on the Joe Rogan Podcast and he is saying 10-15 times more deadly than the "flu". Could require 48 million hospitalizations w/96 million cases occurring and over 480,000 deaths over the next 3-7 months

 
I’m just trying to figure what changed yesterday in my neck of the woods. I was out and about in stores first thing in the morning and it was business as usual. I was even able to get hand sanitizer. Supply of TP and Lysol was pretty low, but they had everything including water. 

Jump to the end of the day and grocery stores were wiped out. There were news stories about stores having to limit the number of shoppers at a time and there being long lines just to be able to get in. By the end of the day it looked like the stores in Walking Dead with only a jar of orange marmalade and a blackberry scone left. 

People posted pictures of rows in stores that were completely empty. Some public schools around here are shutting down for a minimum of 6 weeks. I guess we will have to plan tofu tacos for dinner since there was a run in the meat department. 

 
Jeesh... listening to Michael Osterholm on the Joe Rogan Podcast and he is saying 10-15 times more deadly than the "flu". Could require 48 million hospitalizations w/96 million cases occurring and over 480,000 deaths over the next 3-7 months
Even though I believe the facts may shift over time. I thought this was a really good podcast.

 

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