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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (6 Viewers)

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[icon] said:
How this South Korean company created coronavirus test kits in three weeks

Amazing article about how a SK firm saw the writing on the wall in early January and made bold moves to scale to produce 1 Million tests per day at a cost of $20 each.

The competency and ingenuity gaps between SK and the US are staggeringly apparently during this. It really highlights how far we have fallen. 
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We as Americans have become way too lazy. We expect things to just work out, requiring very little effort or sacrifice. On top of that, Capitalism has gotten a bit out of control, where unless a buck can be made, it ain't getting done. Period. 

 
T J said:
CDC is reporting 1215 cases in the US. Out of what? 300 million people? Too many people buying in to the doomsday scenario.
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Currently with 36 deaths, or 3%.  I understand that's very high as there are people who have it who don't know or haven't been tested.

11 days ago we had right at 100 confirmed cases in the US, now we're at 1,215 cases as of yesterday.  That's a bit over 28% growth per day, on average.  If not contained, that means that 10 days from now we'll be looking at about 18k cases.  10 days from then, we'll be looking at over 200k.  And that's only looking at the confirmed cases, not including those that are positive (possibly not realizing it) who haven't been tested.

 
‘Hamilton’ weekend performances to continue in Miami despite coronavirus pandemic

>> No refunds offered at this time <<

>> One of the actors in the performance is calling that decision "disgraceful," since audiences are generally full of older people who are most at risk of severe illness.

One patron who planned to attend one of this weekend’s “Hamilton” performances told Local 10 News that they are currently caring for a sickly relative and are outraged that the Arsht Center is not providing refunds at this time to those who wish to skip out on the performance as a precaution. <<

 
Anarchy99 said:
Weird. I am one town over from Nashua and heard stories of how chaotic it was at Market Basket in the afternoon. My wife showed me pictures her friend took of both the huge lines and the empty shelves.  Yet we were out at a packed restaurant in Bedford with a confirmed case of the virus right down the street and the place was mobbed and there was a wait and you couldn’t even get in. Odd. 
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Not sure if he went to MB or Hannaford. He was actually supposed to go out to dinner with his mom, but she cancelled due to virus concerns.

I'm probably still playing cards at Boston Billiards tonight. I'll try not to put my fingers in my eyes, mouth, nose etc., without proper cleaning/washing.

End of the world parties would probably be good promos at clubs right now.

 
Our company just announced that anyone the CDC defines as "high risk" (over 60, health issues, pregnant, etc.) needs to work from home. Anyone else that is worried about coming into the office needs to consult with their manager. Been telling everyone we would all be working from home by the end of next week and nobody believed me. 

 
T J said:
Oh, I’m educated plenty. I’ve been doing nothing but educating myself on this since it started. Let’s see - we all have coronavirus. This is a new strain where no one has immunity and is named Covid-19.  It spreads very easily. The incubation period is 14 days so you can have it, spread it and never possibly even know you have/had it. The highest risk (for mortality) is the elderly, mainly starting at 70yrs and up, but elevated at 50yrs and up, and those with compromised immune systems or underlying health conditions. The goal is not to stop, but slow the spread so the health care system is not overwhelmed (flatten the curve). There are not enough ventilators/beds available if this got to worst case scenario. 
 

How am I doing so far? 
 

CDC is reporting 1215 cases in the US. Out of what? 300 million people? Too many people buying in to the doomsday scenario. 
 

For real, we do all this, and it pops back up - we do it all again? And again? And again? 

 
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What it seems like is you just aren't extrapolating out the math.  We aren't so much worried about the 1000 cases currently, we are worried about what it could look like next week - especially when you compare our numbers to how other countries numbers started out.   Also, nowhere in here have you accounted for how far behind we are in the testing.   We really seemed to have dropped the ball there vs. other countries.  

 
T J said:
And for the record, my take has zero to do with the tournament being canceled. I understand that entirely. It’s the fear. It’s the markets. It’s the people who will get put out of work, the businesses that will close, the retirement savings lost, the radical reaction to this. 

It all just feels like we’re creating a bigger long term problem. 
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The items in red, once lost, can be rebuilt and restored. The item in blue cannot.

 
Sinn Fein said:
Maybe, just maybe, there is more to life than money.

:shrug:
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Wasn’t it just yesterday that you were ripping Trump for not doing a good enough job to keep the markets calm?  

Currently, there are basically zero guardrails in place for people who have no choice but to work, because they can’t afford leave time and they can’t afford the other things they need if/when push comes to shove.  If people get sick and can’t afford it, welp sucks to be them, they are screwed.  

Watching this clip yesterday of how China has yet to free up its massive labor force into the trains, the factories, the markets etc., reminded me we still don’t know whether this is going to succeed even after the quarantines are over.  I think it’s reasonable to consider whether spread of the virus is inevitable.  You hate to go there but it’s a valid question to ask.  

 
T J said:
So do this all again then? I don’t see it. 
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What you are calling “the worst case scenario” or “doomsday scenario” in your posts is really being considered more like the obvious and definite next step in this according to the experts if we continue even close to normal behavior. 

 
shader said:
I've posted it a few times, but there should be a worldwide push to quickly manufacture and distribute ventilators.  

... According to the spreadsheet (assuming 5% of people need ICU, a variable that could be higher), we reach our ventilator capacity on April 7th.

That means this country has a month to solve the problem, in a best-case scenario.
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Airplanes and other materiel were spit out like PEZ candy during the months after Pearl Harbor with little ramp-up. A similar initiative is needed now.

And ventilators can keep being manufactured past April 7th. Might also be possible to manufacture instead what I'll call "field ventilators" -- stripped-down devices that eliminate all bells and whistles and contain only what's scrupulously necessary to help a patient breathe. Maybe the field ventilators can be engineered in such a way that three of those can be manufactured for the cost/time of one regular bells-&-whistles ventilator.

 
Going to Old Chicago for a few beers after work with some friends. I'll be sure to tip 40% because I know the server/bartenter will need somewhat of a buffer for the incoming slowdown. 

 
Doug B said:
Airplanes and other materiel were spit out like PEZ candy during the months after Pearl Harbor with little ramp-up. A similar initiative is needed now.

And ventilators can keep being manufactured past April 7th. Might also be possible to manufacture instead what I'll call "field ventilators" -- stripped-down devices that eliminate all bells and whistles and contain only what's scrupulously necessary to help a patient breathe. Maybe the field ventilators can be engineered in such a way that three of those can be manufactured for the cost/time of one regular bells-&-whistles ventilator.
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Instead of Riveting Rosie, we have Ventilator Vicky?

I don’t know, are these machines complex?   I feel like most of the bells and whistles are necessary.  I get your point, but you wouldn’t really want to rush build a breathing machine.  The threat of lawsuit-palooza would likely keep this from happening.  
 

ps:   Irony:   these would likely have the label “made in china”

 
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Mr. Ham said:
Problem runs deeper. You don’t just hand out out and say here you go. Drugs, beds, and expertise are also needed and we are not prepared.
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There will be repercussions ... but something of the three items you mentioned must be spared at the expense of the others ... it will be expertise.

 
brun said:
Not sure if he went to MB or Hannaford. He was actually supposed to go out to dinner with his mom, but she cancelled due to virus concerns.

I'm probably still playing cards at Boston Billiards tonight. I'll try not to put my fingers in my eyes, mouth, nose etc., without proper cleaning/washing.

End of the world parties would probably be good promos at clubs right now.
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I mostly stay home or am at my office (by myself), so I spend 95% of my day secluded. But whenever I leave I scrub my hands on the way out and again whenever I enter anywhere else. I also scrub my hands again right before I eat. When you add in bathroom breaks, I am washing my hands 10-12 times a day. Beyond that, I don’t feel there is much more I can do, so at this stage I’m pretty much if I get it, I get it. IMO, if everyone just thoroughly washed their hands all day, it would help minimize the virus, the flu, the common cold, and any other cooties out there. 

 
Hard to keep up with this thread, so apologies if this option for TP and Kleenex has been mentioned.  Our household now has myself and my daughter working from home and my son now doing college online; so the stock of TP and Kleenex we had that seemed adequate, suddenly felt way low.  I tried Amazon first and as can be imagined, most items are out of stock with proposed arrivals between mid April to May.  Grainger had some options, but the delivery timing seemed "iffy".  So, I just ordered on Staples and with free delivery I hope to have "back up" TP and Kleenex by Monday.  

Something else that I am wondering about with all the work from homes going on.  Can the Internet and Cell Companies provide the needed bandwidth to accommodate all of this?  We've been asked not to use video (I hate it anyway) to not strain our system, but could there be slowed systems throughout?

 
Critical Care (ICU?) beds per capita.  US in better shape than some.

Slow the spread.  Treat the very sick.  Reduce your social interaction.  Do your best.  Be patient.

Life doesn't typically present chances to be a hero.  You are now presented with many ways to be one, in little ways, going forward.

 
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ren hoek said:
Wasn’t it just yesterday that you were ripping Trump for not doing a good enough job to keep the markets calm?  

Currently, there are basically zero guardrails in place for people who have no choice but to work, because they can’t afford leave time and they can’t afford the other things they need if/when push comes to shove.  If people get sick and can’t afford it, welp sucks to be them, they are screwed.  

Watching this clip yesterday of how China has yet to free up its massive labor force into the trains, the factories, the markets etc., reminded me we still don’t know whether this is going to succeed even after the quarantines are over.  I think it’s reasonable to consider whether spread of the virus is inevitable.  You hate to go there but it’s a valid question to ask.  
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I was "ripping" trump for not being a leader.

I pointed out that during his great speech - the market was reacting very negatively in real time.  The markets reacted poorly as a result of poor and chaotic leadership at the federal level.  Markets like a degree of certainty - even if its bad news.  Trump was not delivering that in his speech.

I fully understand that this is going to be, perhaps, the single biggest disruption to the global economy in our life times.  This will be hard - relatively speaking - for everyone.  We will all be making some level of sacrifice to our daily lives/expectations, and it will be incumbent on all of us to help lift each other up.

I also don't think its reasonable to consider whether the spread of the virus is inevitable - I assume that we are long past that point, and that the steps we are taking now are not designed to stop the spread of the virus, they are designed to slow the spread of the virus, and spread the impacts over time.  At this stage - the absolute worst outcome is to overwhelm the healthcare system - which then bleeds out (figuratively) into the rest of society as otherwise treatable issues go untreated.

 
proteus126 said:
Critical Care (ICU?) beds per capita.  US in better shape than some.

Slow the spread.  Treat the very sick.  Reduce your social interaction.  Do your best.  Be patient.

Life doesn't typically present chances to be a hero.  You are now presented with many ways to be one, in little ways, going forward.
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It’s the American Dream. You can be a hero by sitting on your ### and watching Netflix all day. 

 
I am not sure the strategy of having colleges finish out the year remotely is going to have the outcome as intended. Our son is home for break and was told not to go back to school. Classes in the classroom have been eliminated the rest of the year. 

So instead, he’s partying at other campuses instead, and for kids that can’t stay on campus they are out clubbing or partying off campus. The point is, college kids will end up being in closer proximity than they were when they were going to class. Now they don’t have to worry about getting up and getting out to class. This will probably backfire. But I guess the colleges can say whatever happened was not on their watch, so they covered their butts. 

 
T J said:
Sure, take precautions, but put everything on hold? For how long? And what happens when we resume and it re-surfaces, which it will. Put everything back on hold again? And then again the next time? And the time after that? That’s not the answer. That would be more devastating globally and individually than the alternative. I believe that.
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The "put everything on hold" is not supposed to be the response to every COVID outbreak forever. Current measures are meant to respond to a FIRST outbreak of a new virus for which (a) no human has immunity and (b) mitigating treatments have not been developed.

 
Doug B said:
The "put everything on hold" is not supposed to be the response to every COVID outbreak forever. Current measures are meant to respond to a FIRST outbreak of a new virus for which (a) no human has immunity and (b) mitigating treatments have not been developed.
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why bring logic and rationale into it?

HUH?

 
bcat01 said:
China media is saying it could shut off supply of drugs to US.  Link
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Cutting off their face to spite their, uh, face. If they like money, especially future money, this nothing more than economic saber-rattling. Sure, they can hurt the West -- but in doing so, risk the West turning inwards for manufacturing needs and determining that cheap labor is no longer the trump-all it has been for decades.

 
I know it has been mentioned but bears repeating. Thanks to everyone in this thread that got me to casually buy a little more food each time to stock up over the past few weeks so I don't have to go out and shop now if I don't want to. :thumbup:  

 
Senor Schmutzig said:
Same here in South Florida. Don't understand the mentality of waiting until a student is reported as contaminated before making a drastic move like closing the schools. Stupid and short-sighted. I won't go so far as saying it's a cultural thing but I'm close. 
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Its the same here in New Orleans. It might be a tourist-area culture thing, it might be a Gulf-Coast-not-a-care-in-the-world culture thing ... I dunno. Everyone in power locally has put tons and tons of stock in "We don't have a confirmed case in [somewhere]!" They don't see the circle closing in ... "No cases in Louisiana!" ... um, "No cases in New Orleans!" ... um, "No cases in the school system!" ... etc.

 
Sputnikv8 said:
Instead of Riveting Rosie, we have Ventilator Vicky?

I don’t know, are these machines complex?   I feel like most of the bells and whistles are necessary.  I get your point, but you wouldn’t really want to rush build a breathing machine.  The threat of lawsuit-palooza would likely keep this from happening.  
 

ps:   Irony:   these would likely have the label “made in china”
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Good point, I didn't think of that. 

I wonder, if the US government mandated say GM to allocate plant resources to building ventilators, would GM be exempt from lawsuit being that they were ordered to build them? Any Lawyerguys wanna chime in?

 
brun said:
Even though I believe the facts may shift over time. I thought this was a really good podcast.
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One of the small details that got lost in there was they had the forethought to put this together 2 weeks ago. Might be one of Joe's biggest pods ever, I see it being shared everywhere.

CR69 said:
Our company just announced that anyone the CDC defines as "high risk" (over 60, health issues, pregnant, etc.) needs to work from home. Anyone else that is worried about coming into the office needs to consult with their manager. Been telling everyone we would all be working from home by the end of next week and nobody believed me. 
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The oldest guy in the building sits next to me, 70+. He's a hardcore fella, been in the business 40+ years. CEO basically told him yesterday, why don't you work from home for a while until this blows over. 

Doug B said:
Airplanes and other materiel were spit out like PEZ candy during the months after Pearl Harbor with little ramp-up. A similar initiative is needed now.

And ventilators can keep being manufactured past April 7th. Might also be possible to manufacture instead what I'll call "field ventilators" -- stripped-down devices that eliminate all bells and whistles and contain only what's scrupulously necessary to help a patient breathe. Maybe the field ventilators can be engineered in such a way that three of those can be manufactured for the cost/time of one regular bells-&-whistles ventilator.
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I agree that if US put their collective minds to it, we could pull this off but understand times were a lot different in the 40's. In order to make this happen you're going to need to step on toes, probably violate some rules that have been put in place over the last 80 years and really bust some serious ###. I look at a guy like Elon Musk and think, I'm glad he's on my team because while he might not be the guy, we got a few guys like him on the sidelines that could make this happen. I know we can do, we just need to cut through the red tape bull#### that hinders something like this from getting done in times of emergency.

 
Ilov80s said:
Looks like we caught the little ####er in Canada, now we learn how to kill it on a mass scale 

https://sunnybrook.ca/research/media/item.asp?c=2&i=2069&f=covid-19-isolated-2020
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Not to be dismissive ... but so many of these science articles are bad due to their superficiality and their lack of journalists understanding of where the cutting edge of the research actually lies. The virus was "caught" on 12/30/2019 (or 12/31, I forget) in a Chinese lab, and its genome sequenced about a week later. SARS-CoV-2 has not a been a mystery pathogen that no one could isolate.

 
JaxBill said:
i can neither confirm nor deny I'm in the liquor store parking lot waiting for it to open
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Bought two cases of wine yesterday.  I already have a stocked bar and since I am am a serious homebrewer I am good to go for beer (9 taps with full kegs, another 6 waiting to be tapped, probably 7 or 8 cases of commercial beer and over 300 lbs of grain to brew more).   

I may not have enough TP and sanitizer but my alcohol supply will last me months.  :banned:

 
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