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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (9 Viewers)

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tamales said:
This is going to sound very offensive and if you want to blast me I understand. Probably somebody can say this better than me.

The deaths are almost all far older people with serious health conditions. I feel like shutting the world down and destroying our economy seems like overreacting to saving a bunch of people that lived full lives and all seem to be of the opinion they lived their lives, their not gonna hide in their houses now. Meanwhile economy tanks, millions lose their jobs and children fall back in their education all to save 85 great granddad with emphysema. 
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Perhaps if you had elderly parents, friends or relatives that were at high risk from suffering serious consequences from being infected with this virus you might feel differently and not find them expendable because in your opinion they have lived full lives.  

 
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cashman88 said:
I’m sorry to hear about your wife. I hope she and the rest of your family come through this healthy.

Can you please expand on what you wrote above - specifically what medications your wife was given?  I’ve read different opinions in here about Mucinex and other otc remedies. Was she given an expectorant only, or is it the DM brand of Mucinex?  Does your wife have a dry cough or phlegmy cough?  I’m curious about the active ingredient in the inhaler too. 
 

For home treatment of a family members with cv19, I was planning on Tylenol, fluids (electrolytes) and rest (sleeping aids if necessary). I’ve been told by mds that the cough suppressants are not effective. I’m wondering what other home treatment plans you guys are planning.

This article says not to use ibuprofen to treat cv19 - Link
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Would appreciate an answer on this too.

 
Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277

2/12 - 490

2/17 - 893 reported cases -  5 dead 

2/22 - 1,834 reported cases - 19 dead

2/26 - 3,650 reported cases - 57 dead

2/29 - 7,155 reported cases - 109 dead - USA 68 cases - 1 dead

3/1 -    9,039 reported cases - 133 dead - USA 76 cases - 1 dead

3/5 - 17,353 reported cases - 344 dead - USA 210 cases - 12 dead

3/9 - 33,303 reported cases - 881 dead - USA 628 cases - 26 dead

3/10 - 38,453 reported cases - 1,132 dead - USA 975 cases - 30 dead

3/11 - 45,386 reported cases - 1443 dead - USA 1,168 cases - 36 dead

3/12 - 53,763 reported cases - 1802 dead - USA 1,716 cases - 41 dead

3/13 - 64,567 reported cases - 2,239 dead - USA 2,269 cases - 48 dead

3/14 - 75,916 reported cases - 2,640 dead - USA 2,995 cases - 60 dead

3/15 - 88,508 reported cases - 3,302 dead - USA 3,667 cases - 68 dead

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit#gid=0

Back down to a 4-day doubling time

 
squistion said:
Perhaps if you had elderly parents, friends or relatives that were at high risk from suffering serious consequences from being infected with this virus you might feel differently and not find then expendable because in your opinion they have lived full lives.  
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AMEN. 

this is of that same "thin the herd" garbage that tournament guy was spouting on Friday ... matter of fact, he even used the "will mostly affect people who've lived their lives already" trash.

too similar to be a coincidence. 

 
Courtjester said:
That is a great/but very sobering series of books. 

Just FYI don't know why--but today there has been a run on gas in our area. Most stations around us have run out this afternoon.

Just a doomsday scenario coming true across many fronts. 
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This makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

 
joffer said:
there's bound to be some variation across a country this big, but i wouldn't expect that level of difference.  just my $.02
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Imo there is not quite enough isolation in the states to see that big of a difference.  I mean, I live small town WI and the last two days of work I was in contact with people from Tenn 2x, NY, Colorado, Texas, and a college hockey team from Ohio.  Not to mention all the traffic back and forth from Minn and Illinois.  

 
squistion said:
Perhaps if you had elderly parents, friends or relatives that were at high risk from suffering serious consequences from being infected with this virus you might feel differently and not find then expendable because in your opinion they have lived full lives.  
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I do. Both my father and father in law are of the opinion "if it's my time to go so be it". 

 
Sinn Fein said:
I appreciate all the sentiments - I don't think its that big a deal.  My wife is in reasonably good health, and she already feels better than she did on Friday - so I am not worried.  Our younger daughter was a little freaked out - but she is the smart one in the family, she'll figure out this is not really that bad.

I think the only reason my wife wanted to get checked out is that she works in the healthcare industry (hospice), and while she does not see patients, she manages a lot of staff who are in hospitals/nursing homes - and she was in all 3 of the major hospitals here in the last 10 days.

She will be able to work from home just fine - but wanted to make sure her staff was safe.
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wow, you and your family sound disgustingly intelligent, compassionate and evolved.

but that's ok, i guess.

 
shader said:
Deaths are obviously very sad.  But a deep recession (or depression) ends up leading to a lot of deaths too, in a different way. Economic concerns aren’t all about people losing half of their 401k or losing all their rental homes.

For some people it means they go homeless or struggle to eat or become unhealthy.
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Good tweet on economics & pandemics https://twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1238837158007447558?s=21

The General said:
Newt wrote the forward for this book: One Second After 

Sci-Fi doomsday type book about dealing with the collapse of the system.

Have heard him riff on fragility of our way of life on more than a few occasions.
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Great book, little more end of the worldish than what I think we will see here but absolutely shines a light on the fragility of our way of life.

 
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fruity pebbles said:
There was a story of a Canadian couple doing the same thing. Made $72,000 and were very proud of it. I mean, seriously, how big ahole  do you have to be. I honestly wish $72,000 worth of medical bills on them. 
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They won’t have medical bills. They’re Canadian...

 
tamales said:
I do. Both my father and father in law are of the opinion "if it's my time to go so be it". 
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My mom literally said exactly this to me verbatim yesterday.  (My sister is an RN and has been getting on my parent's case about taking care of themselves.  They are, but they're also philosophical about their life stage).

 
Jake Tapper @jaketapper ·17m

Please note new ⁦ @CDCgov⁩ guidelines: for the next 8 weeks, events in the US with 50 or more people should be canceled or postponed

I know people have been speculating on this - but its hard to imagine schools opening back up in 3 weeks.  I have no idea who makes the call that its safe "enough".

Even before our trip to the doctor today, I had asked both our kids to keep a journal during the break.  Part of it was simply to keep their writing skills active, part of it was a feeling that we (the world) were headed for a weird time, and documenting it would be something they could look back on later in life, and may try to explain to their kids what it was like back in the day.

 
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Stressful times right now. I’m a pharmacist at Safeway that serves a large retirement community that is full of at-risk people, so there’s no social distancing for me. I’m caught between the sudden panic of my wife and the complacency of the pharmacy customers.
 

We’re experiencing the same panic shopping as everyone else but few seem outwardly concerned about the virus itself, just the shortages. That probably has to do with only a few cases in AZ and none locally. I’m afraid that this week that will change and it’s going to switch to a completely reasonable panic verses what it is now. I imagine that conversations will shift from laughing about the empty shelves to neighbors in the ICU and shortages of tests. I’m hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.

 
Gawain said:
Is it too soon to ask if my school taxes will be down a bit? I get that we're still going to have to pay the unionized staff, but coach salaries should be gone. Bus drivers and a lot of maintenance staff have nothing to do. OpEx will be down a ton.

I'm probably looking at a two week furlough if liquor stores shut down, as would all the guys who work for me. I'm concerned the working to middle class get squeezed real hard on this.
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Good grief. 

 
That one guy said:
Odd question as I continue to try and wrap my head around how this is all gonna go down:  will this be regional?  Meaning some areas of the country are Italy and others S Korea?
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This is definitely possible IMO.  Maybe not quite SK, but much better than Italy/Seattle.

All schools in VA, MD and DC are closed already.  A lot of people are already doing true social distancing -- basically inside except for groceries and meds.  I'm like 99% certain bars, restaurants, churches and other social gatherings will be officially closed in a few days.

We missed the window to have that really halt the spread of the disease, but clamping down earlier rather than later is going to have a big impact.

I don't know what you'll find if you Google it, but I was reading about the 1957 flu pandemic yesterday and there were huge differences in fatalities between cities that had stringent anti-spread measures (St. Louis IIRC) and some that didn't (NYC IIRC).

 
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That one guy said:
Odd question as I continue to try and wrap my head around how this is all gonna go down:  will this be regional?  Meaning some areas of the country are Italy and others S Korea?
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Umm, there will undoubtedly be variation across the country, but I haven't seen ANYTHING  to suggest we are smart/prepared enough to post up a S. Korea like figure anywhere that has even a substantial population.  Indeed, we seem less prepared than Italy.  Hope I'm wrong about that and/or that we can get it together quickly.

 
The latest coming out of the UK

The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a secret Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials reveals.

The document, seen by the Guardian, is the first time health chiefs tackling the virus have admitted that they expect it to circulate for another 12 months and lead to huge extra strain on an already overstretched NHS.

It also suggests that health chiefs are braced for as many as 80% of Britons becoming infected with the coronavirus over that time.

Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, has previously described that figure as the worst-case scenario and suggested that the real number would turn out to be less than that. However, the briefing makes clear that four in five of the population “are expected” to contract the virus.

The document says that: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation.”

The briefing sets out the latest official thinking about how severely the infection could affect both the public’s health and that of personnel in critical services such as the NHS, police, the fire brigade and transport.

It has been drawn up in recent days by PHE’s emergency preparedness and response team and approved as accurate by Dr Susan Hopkins, PHE’s lead official dealing with the outbreak. It has been shared with hospital bosses and senior doctors in the NHS in Engand.

“For the public to hear that it could last for 12 months, people are going to be really upset about that and pretty worried about that”, said Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia.

“A year is entirely plausible. But that figure isn’t well appreciated or understood,” added Hunter, an expert in epidemiology.

“I think it will dip in the summer, towards the end of June, and come back in November, in the way that usual seasonal flu does. I think it will be around forever, but become less severe over time, as immunity builds up,” he added.

The admission that the virus will continue to cause problems for another year appears to undermine hopes that the arrival of warmer weather this summer would kill it.

The document also discloses that an estimated 500,000 of the 5 million people deemed vital because they work “in essential services and critical infrastructure” will be off sick at any one time during a month-long peak of the epidemic. The 5 million include 1m NHS staff and 1.5 million in social care.

However, the briefing raises questions about how Britain would continue to function normally, warning that: “It is estimated that at least 10% of people in the UK will have a cough at any one time during the months of peak Covid-19 activity.” Under revised health advice Boris Johnson unveiled last Thursday, anyone with a cough should self-isolate for at least seven days.

The document also states that:

The health service cannot cope with the sheer number of people with symptoms who need to be tested because laboratories are “under significant demand pressures”.

From now on only the very seriously ill who are already in hospital and people in care homes and prisons where the coronavirus has been detected will get tested.

Testing services are under such strain that even NHS staff will not be swabbed, despite their key role and the risk of them passing the virus on to patients.

A senior NHS figure involved in preparing for the growing “surge” in patients whose lives are being put at risk by Covid-19 said an 80% infection rate could lead to more than half a million people dying.

If the mortality rate turns out to be the 1% many experts are using as their working assumption then that would mean 531,100 deaths. But if Whitty’s insistence that the rate will be closer to 0.6% proves accurate, then that would involve 318,660 people dying.

Experts advising governments worldwide on the way epidemics grow and eventually decline say there will be a rapid rise in cases to a peak – and then a falling off. Whitty, who has seen the modelling done by UK and global scientists, says the case numbers will go up fast over the next 10 to 14 weeks.

That will mean a peak at around the end of May to mid-June, when the NHS will be under great pressure. The strategy of all countries is to delay that peak and stretch it out over a longer period of time, so that health services are better able to cope. There is also the possibility that new treatments will be available by then.

 
Sinn Fein said:
Jake Tapper @jaketapper ·17m

Please note new ⁦ @CDCgov⁩ guidelines: for the next 8 weeks, events in the US with 50 or more people should be canceled or postponed

I know people have been speculating on this - but its hard to imagine schools opening back up in 3 weeks.  I have no idea who makes the call that its safe "enough".

Even before our trip to the doctor today, I had asked both our kids to keep a journal during the break.  Part of it was simply to keep their writing skills active, part of it was a feeling that we (the world) were headed for a weird time, and documenting it would be something they could look back on later in life, and may try to explain to their kids what it was like back in the day.
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Schools are done for the year

 
tamales said:
This is going to sound very offensive and if you want to blast me I understand. Probably somebody can say this better than me.

The deaths are almost all far older people with serious health conditions. I feel like shutting the world down and destroying our economy seems like overreacting to saving a bunch of people that lived full lives and all seem to be of the opinion they lived their lives, their not gonna hide in their houses now. Meanwhile economy tanks, millions lose their jobs and children fall back in their education all to save 85 great granddad with emphysema. 
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Wow, I got beat up for putting "alot of unnecessary deaths" and "recession" in the same sentence.

Good luck.

 
tamales said:
This is going to sound very offensive and if you want to blast me I understand. Probably somebody can say this better than me.

The deaths are almost all far older people with serious health conditions. I feel like shutting the world down and destroying our economy seems like overreacting to saving a bunch of people that lived full lives and all seem to be of the opinion they lived their lives, their not gonna hide in their houses now. Meanwhile economy tanks, millions lose their jobs and children fall back in their education all to save 85 great granddad with emphysema. 
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Think “hospitalizations” and the domino effects thereof for the overall healthcare system — including patients of all ages.

Forget “deaths of old people” — that’s a red herring.

 
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My kids sping break extended an extra 4 days. Back to school March 30. I bet that changes again.

 
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My employer, healthcare system, sent an email out. We will be getting pop ups on our computers every 4 hours where we have to attest and sign that we don't have a fever.

 
I haven't been keeping up enough- mostly on US stuff.  How ARE other countries handling getting people food and meds after a couple weeks? 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
My mom literally said exactly this to me verbatim yesterday.  (My sister is an RN and has been getting on my parent's case about taking care of themselves.  They are, but they're also philosophical about their life stage).
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Yep. I’ve noticed that about some elderly. They don’t view death like younger people do. They know it’s right around the corner and they are somewhat ok with that. They mostly want to enjoy the time they have left  

Everyone dies. We spend quite a bit of time discussing when and how that happens.

 
KarmaPolice said:
The group that is most at risk is also most  likely to be getting their info from sketchy sources comparing it to the flu.  

That's as non-political as I can think to state that.  
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AKA, the elephant in the room.

And by that, I don't mean the FBGs site... they have been exemplary - this thread is exhibit A.

It's the people who make such rational discussions impossible that are the problem.

 
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