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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (11 Viewers)

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Starting this by saying the deaths are awful and I feel terrible for them and their families. But just wanted to point out that, and I mean this with all the compassion possible by saying this, deaths are a lagging indicator while new cases are a leading indicator. If this new case 3 day trend in Italy holds, it does seem to appear that they may have stemmed the tide of exponential growth. Those 3 numbers are fairly level. I want to end this by reiterating how awful the deaths are but that there may be a favorable trend in new cases there.
Definitely

 
My ex-wife got home from Europe on Friday. She was also in europe the week before. She thought it was a great idea to go out to dinner saturday night. 

 
I am doing a covid-19 mustache, maybe we can get a thread here for us to post daily updates to the stache's. Then in a few weeks we bracket the mustaches and have our own best 'stache tourney.
I'll just let the beard go a little and then one day, shave off most of it and leave the Insta-Stache.

 
Viewer q and a with a senior scholar Dr, from Johns Hopkins University.

Chronic drinking can weaken the immune system. Not talking about 1 to 2 a day folks.

Pregnancy affects immune system so best to stay in/social distancing. As women get bigger, it pushes on the lungs so more at risk for respiratory distress. 

Those who get admitted to ICU can have long term lung damage.

It's safe to donate blood. Areas set up safely to do so.

 
That’s true, probably should have said new cases are “more of a leading indicator”, technically speaking they are a lagging indicator by definition. IIRC, I believe Italy instituted their full quarantine around a week or so ago. So having said that, to your point, it would seem that around a week later cases would level off, which appears to hopefully be the case in Italy now. I’m certainly no expert in anything BTW, but given what countries have done to help stem the tide on this, we really need to be extreme with our social distancing to the point where we are all basically self quarantinning. For the good of everyone.
yup.  For those wanting to put a timeline on this whole thing, based on China, look at newly infected being roughly level for 3 or 4 days and then add 3 weeks.  Or, if deaths (may be easier to track, given testing uncertainty) lags by two weeks, look for death totals to be level for 3 or 4 days consecutively and then add a week.  At that point, it's probably ok to start easing up on quarantine.

 
The head of the World Health Organizaion, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has implored governments to test more suspected cases, warning that they cannot fight the pandemic blindfolded. (The Guardian, 3/16/2020)

In a strongly-worded attack on governments which have neglected or held back testing, he said: “We have not seen an urgent enough escalation in testing, isolation and contact tracing, which is the backbone of the response.”

Tedros added:

"The most effective way to prevent infections and save lives is breaking the chains of transmission. And to do that, you must test and isolate. You cannot fight the fire blindfolded. And we cannot stop this pandemic, if we don’t know who is infected. We have a simple message for all countries Test, test, test. Test every suspected case."

 
yup.  For those wanting to put a timeline on this whole thing, based on China, look at newly infected being roughly level for 3 or 4 days and then add 3 weeks.  Or, if deaths (may be easier to track, given testing uncertainty) lags by two weeks, look for death totals to be level for 3 or 4 days consecutively and then add a week.  At that point, it's probably ok to start easing up on quarantine.
But...just because the case load levels off, it doesn't solve the underlying issue that we don't have a 'cure' for lack of a better word for this.  So we ease up on the quarantine...don't we risk going right back to where we are now?

I know people are tracking this to flu that does poorly in warmer conditions, but we're making an assumption there and assuming this thing would run it's course naturally is part of the issue we're facing today.  And it's one thing to project death rates and numbers...it's another to experience hundreds to thousands of deaths on a daily basis and once the trendline peaks, think we're 1-2 weeks away from getting back out there...

 
My dad's 80 year old GF has tested positive. She's in hospital now, collapsed yday but has apparently recovered well today, so she may be released if she continues to improve. Her daughter wants my dad to look after her if she is sent home....

ETA My dad is 88 (and willing to look after her). The daughter is about 62-63 

 
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Unless I've missed it, the US isn't handling this.  The US is comprised of 50 states, all of which seem to be handling this on their own.
Like I said earlier, I am proud of how Colorado is handling this. We have drive thru testing set up and that is why it looks like we have so many cases here. Denver just closed all sit down restaurants. I guarantee my town will follow suit. People appear to be distancing. I think some states aren't fairing well though., 

 
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Woman who sits with my wife is having lower respiratory issues and been called back to her doctor's after filling out a questionnaire.  Given where they work they've certainly been in contact with people from high risk countries.  No test available though (at least not to this point).

Wife hasn't seen her for 7 days now, so not quite in the clear but we seem to be OK so far.

The official count is off by a factor of 100 IMO.  Maybe 1000.

 
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Those can be difficult I'm sure. I guess the other big part of the equation is how possible is they can be productive in working from home? That kind of thing factors in too as you well know. Best to you there in trying to manage. I know you're doing your best there. Hang in there. 
He's our primary IT guy so mostly he should be fine. 

What kind of an obligation do I have to inform other people they were around someone who was around someone who was running a temp? 

 
One of my crew got a call from his adult son, who he lives with and car pools into work with.

The son was sent home because a co-worker there was tested over the weekend.  She had not been in the office for 10 days.  I don't know the reason she originally stopped going to work.

The son came and got the car, then had to come back here to pick up his dad when we sent him home.  We are awaiting the results of that test, but I feel like indicators give us a low chance of it having come in here based on the timeline.  This guy does sanitize his area at least twice a day since all this started.

Even before this, I was keeping my distance from people as much as possible.  

On another note, we have another employee, salaried, who's wife is about to have surgery.  Boss told him not to bother coming in until after she is recovered enough.   :thumbup:

 
new cases are lagging too...I remember reading an article wher eit took about a week for shutting everything down in Wuhan to show up in a decrease in new cases... i.e. it takes about a week or more for infections to present themselves to the point where the pserson needs checked out from the time they are initially infected.
Relative to deaths, new cases are a leading indicator.  It would lag actual cases if that was known.

 
But...just because the case load levels off, it doesn't solve the underlying issue that we don't have a 'cure' for lack of a better word for this.  So we ease up on the quarantine...don't we risk going right back to where we are now?

I know people are tracking this to flu that does poorly in warmer conditions, but we're making an assumption there and assuming this thing would run it's course naturally is part of the issue we're facing today.  And it's one thing to project death rates and numbers...it's another to experience hundreds to thousands of deaths on a daily basis and once the trendline peaks, think we're 1-2 weeks away from getting back out there...
I believe the strategy is to spread out the hit to the healthcare system so not everyone gets sick at once and in doing so extend things to the point where a vaccine is available for mass distribution. If that plays out that way, many lives would be saved. Too many sick people at once will lead to way more fatalities as the healthcare infrastructure can only handle a limited number of critically ill people.

 
The head of the World Health Organizaion, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has implored governments to test more suspected cases, warning that they cannot fight the pandemic blindfolded. (The Guardian, 3/16/2020)

In a strongly-worded attack on governments which have neglected or held back testing, he said: “We have not seen an urgent enough escalation in testing, isolation and contact tracing, which is the backbone of the response.”

Tedros added:

"The most effective way to prevent infections and save lives is breaking the chains of transmission. And to do that, you must test and isolate. You cannot fight the fire blindfolded. And we cannot stop this pandemic, if we don’t know who is infected. We have a simple message for all countries Test, test, test. Test every suspected case."
Not trying to be political but the failure on testing here is appalling.  Testing and tracing is our number one way to contain it and we have totally dropped the ball.  It is a bit like no one was paying attention to China.  This includes political leadership and regular officials at CDC who should have been focused on it since at least Jan 1 and probably earlier.  

If I went too far, I am sorry.  

 
Called my pcp office since been feeling unwell for a few days. In the past I've had infections without a fever. Have more labs added to Thurs. The gal there said some offices around are closing to non essential patients. Scary. I'm so glad I've had my appt for 6 mo as I'm on a schedule to have labs done and be seen. Feel bad for those not being seen who think they should. 

 
Mara Gay

@MaraGay

Trump told governors this morning they are on their own: “Respirators, ventilators, all of the equipment — try getting it yourselves,” Mr. Trump told the governors during the conference call, a recording of which was shared with The New York Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/world/coronavirus-news.html
Try getting it yourself and don’t wait around for the feds to do it. Get on it.   Seems like a pretty simple and straightforward statement taken out of context in the headline  🤷‍♂️  

 
Really annoyed that i have blocked all essential oil hockers on facebook. I am sure by now they have come up with a cure for this thing.

2 parts elderberry, one part peppermint. All good! 

 
Not trying to be political but the failure on testing here is appalling.  Testing and tracing is our number one way to contain it and we have totally dropped the ball.  It is a bit like no one was paying attention to China.  This includes political leadership and regular officials at CDC who should have been focused on it since at least Jan 1 and probably earlier.  

If I went too far, I am sorry.  
My understanding is the FDA deserves lots of criticism on this score as well.

 
Try getting it yourself and don’t wait around for the feds to do it. Get on it.   Seems like a pretty simple and straightforward statement taken out of context in the headline  🤷‍♂️  
50 states all vying for the same product all at once? Yeah, that's going to work out well.

 
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What kind of an obligation do I have to inform other people they were around someone who was around someone who was running a temp? 
Might want @[icon] in here for an opposing viewpoint, but ...

Mere proximity is not much of a risk. I won't say "zero risk", but it's a lot different than being coughed on or handling an object an infected person touched with coughed-on hands. No one's going to catch it breathing in the air (assuming no hacking/sneezing at the table) near an infected person.

At your conferences, do people kind of keep their hands to themselves, don't pass items to one another, and so forth? Or no? 

 
Update for anyone that cares:

They had me call into a conference call. I explained to them it's just allergies and the last place I want to go to is a doctor's office around actual sick people.

They told me to take a the rest of the week off and it won't be counted against my sick or vacation days. We all get laptops on Friday. 

Who said I played myself again?

 
Can you post a link please?

Basically, for anyone with news, if you can share a link that helps immensely. Thanks. 
Nothing against the poster you directed this towards, but this might be my biggest problem here and many other places. People posting "I heard/ read this and that" without any sort of link as if were fact.  Misinformation at it's worst, should not ever be allowed.

 
Might want @[icon] in here for an opposing viewpoint, but ...

Mere proximity is not much of a risk. I won't say "zero risk", but it's a lot different than being coughed on or handling an object an infected person touched with coughed-on hands. No one's going to catch it breathing in the air (assuming no hacking/sneezing at the table) near an infected person.

At your conferences, do people kind of keep their hands to themselves, don't pass items to one another, and so forth? Or no? 
Yeah. He was one that was being especially conscientious even before this. 

 
Really annoyed that i have blocked all essential oil hockers on facebook. I am sure by now they have come up with a cure for this thing.

2 parts elderberry, one part peppermint. All good! 
Taking elderberry (not essential oil but the liquid form) wouldn't hurt at all and could be helpful. It's boosts immune system and has been used for centriues as a flu type immune booster. I take it daily for now. No harm and it may help.

 
Got this group text from my friend..

"This info is from my friend that works for CDC that passed this along to his family and friends. I'm passing it along as well.. The new NCP coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days, how can one know if he/she is infected. By the time they have fever and/or cough and goes to the hospital, the lungs is usually 50 % Fibrosis and it's too late! Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning: Take a deep breath and hold your breath for more than 10 seconds. If you complete it successfully without coughing, without discomfort, stuffiness or tightness, etc.,it proves there is no fibrosis in the lungs, basically indicating no infection. In critical times, please self-check every morning in an environment with clean air. SERIOUS EXCELLENT ADVICE by Japanese Doctors treating COVID-19 cases: Everyone should ensure your mouth & throat is moist, never DRY. Take a few sips of water every 15 mins at least. WHY? Even if the virus gets into your mouth...drinking water or other liquids will WASH them down through your esophagus into the stomach. Once there in tummy...your stomach ACID will kill all the virus. If you don't drink enough water more regularly....the virus can enter your windpipes and into the LUNGS. That's very dangerous. Pls send and share with family, friends and everyone.” 🙄

 
They also have no problem skipping work when they are sick or not sick on a very regular basis. I would be far more worried about a place that the employees rely on tips.  
A friend of mine is an investor in a new bar restaurant that was set to open soon, just talked to him and he is very worried as they needed to open for cash flow. Been training and paying kitchen, bar staff and servers for 3 weeks.

 
Got this group text from my friend..

"This info is from my friend that works for CDC that passed this along to his family and friends. I'm passing it along as well.. The new NCP coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days, how can one know if he/she is infected. By the time they have fever and/or cough and goes to the hospital, the lungs is usually 50 % Fibrosis and it's too late! Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning: Take a deep breath and hold your breath for more than 10 seconds. If you complete it successfully without coughing, without discomfort, stuffiness or tightness, etc.,it proves there is no fibrosis in the lungs, basically indicating no infection. In critical times, please self-check every morning in an environment with clean air. SERIOUS EXCELLENT ADVICE by Japanese Doctors treating COVID-19 cases: Everyone should ensure your mouth & throat is moist, never DRY. Take a few sips of water every 15 mins at least. WHY? Even if the virus gets into your mouth...drinking water or other liquids will WASH them down through your esophagus into the stomach. Once there in tummy...your stomach ACID will kill all the virus. If you don't drink enough water more regularly....the virus can enter your windpipes and into the LUNGS. That's very dangerous. Pls send and share with family, friends and everyone.” 🙄
87 guys just held their breath for 20 seconds.  (I know it says 10 seconds, but we're FBGs and we're competitive).

 
Got this group text from my friend..

"This info is from my friend that works for CDC that passed this along to his family and friends. I'm passing it along as well.. The new NCP coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days, how can one know if he/she is infected. By the time they have fever and/or cough and goes to the hospital, the lungs is usually 50 % Fibrosis and it's too late! Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning: Take a deep breath and hold your breath for more than 10 seconds. If you complete it successfully without coughing, without discomfort, stuffiness or tightness, etc.,it proves there is no fibrosis in the lungs, basically indicating no infection. In critical times, please self-check every morning in an environment with clean air. SERIOUS EXCELLENT ADVICE by Japanese Doctors treating COVID-19 cases: Everyone should ensure your mouth & throat is moist, never DRY. Take a few sips of water every 15 mins at least. WHY? Even if the virus gets into your mouth...drinking water or other liquids will WASH them down through your esophagus into the stomach. Once there in tummy...your stomach ACID will kill all the virus. If you don't drink enough water more regularly....the virus can enter your windpipes and into the LUNGS. That's very dangerous. Pls send and share with family, friends and everyone.” 🙄
This is a hoax that has been going around.  Got it last week from a "friend who is a doctor"

 
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