*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (9 Viewers)

[Grace Under Pressure]

Hospitalizations, protective equipment, ventilators are the choke point for this. With that in mind NY should be building hospitals ASAP like they did in Wuhan and be first in line for equipment that’s supposedly being made/built now.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Nobody said that. 

Can you at least see where somebody's cavalier attitude towards this would come off to some as saying you aren't considering those things though?

Again, I am not piling on the bagel #### - I went to the booze store yesterday that is pretty low key, 2 customers in the store,  they have automatic doors so I don't have to touch as many handles, I used hand sanitizer about 3x, and washed the #### out of my hands when I got home, etc.  I get where you are coming from, and I get where others might be coming from that would say that was an unneeded trip and risk.  

 

[KarmaPolice]

Where?

NYC ! 

 

[tamales]

Can you at least see where somebody's cavalier attitude towards this would come off to some as saying you aren't considering those things though?

Again, I am not piling on the bagel #### - I went to the booze store yesterday that is pretty low key, 2 customers in the store,  they have automatic doors so I don't have to touch as many handles, I used hand sanitizer about 3x, and washed the #### out of my hands when I got home, etc.  I get where you are coming from, and I get where others might be coming from that would say that was an unneeded trip and risk.  

Cavalier about what? That as a 42 year old im not scared #### of dying from this?

 

[DrJ]

Cavalier about what? That as a 42 year old im not scared #### of dying from this?

You must embrace the fear to be one of us!!!!

 

[KarmaPolice]

Cavalier about what? That as a 42 year old im not scared #### of dying from this?

Dude, I read your posts, I see the precautions you took and the reasons you went out.  Like I said, I am not piling on.     

My point was that you dying isn't the main thing that people are talking about.  Pretty sure people know the breakdown of stats by now.  

 

[derek245583]

Can someone explain the hot take that these precautions are a massive transfer of wealth from the younger generation to the older....and at some point society needs to say "sorry old folks, this is too large of a burden to place on our economy".

Not my take....but interesting angle

 

[[icon]]

Yep, I’ve got that bookmarked from when you previously posted it.  It really helped me to understand what’s going on. One of the best tools posted on here.

For those not familiar: 

We have rapidly accelerated past this model: 

Date: Model Dead (Actual Dead) 
3/5: 12 (12)
3/10: 32 (30) 
3/15: 86 (68) 
3/17: 126 (108)
3/19: 186 (218) 
3/20: 226 (256)
3/21: 274 (341) 

That's extra scary if you look forward In the model: 

3/30: 1572 dead 
4/15: 35,068 
4/20: 92,532
4/25: 244,154
4/30: 644,227
5/5: 1,699,000
5/10: 4,485,000

You can see where the hospitals become overwhelmed and the fatality rate skyrockets...

NOT implying this model will remain accurate... distancing and many other factors can and will have a big effect on this. However it's been accurate enough for long enough that it warrants sharing. 
 

 

[tamales]

Im cavalier because:

I'm not panicking?

I Express some optimism?

Im not scared #### of dying with a 99.6% survival rate for my age group?

Because I got takeout which my governor said I could do?

Because I said 100% change the NFL plays THIS year?

No sorry. That's not cavalier. This is a global pandemic that should be taken very seriously but the above is not cavalier. 

 

[tamales]

Where?

Do you want my address or something?

 

[DrJ]

Can someone explain the hot take that these precautions are a massive transfer of wealth from the younger generation to the older....and at some point society needs to say "sorry old folks, this is too large of a burden to place on our economy".

Not my take....but interesting angle

I'd say it's based on the fact that we are passing on a huge debt burden to protect a vulnerable group who happen to be the same people using SS and Medicare, broken programs that also cause us more debt.     I ain't saying it's right or wrong, but that is one element of this.   

 

[KarmaPolice]

Again, I wasn't talking about you in particular, but whatever.  Tensions are rising in here, so time for might nightly ritual of gaming and passing out.  

 

[msommer]

Hospitalizations, protective equipment, ventilators are the choke point for this. With that in mind NY should be building hospitals ASAP like they did in Wuhan and be first in line for equipment that’s supposedly being made/built now.

Weren't they supposed to get a hospital ship?

 

[Nipsey]

Do you want my address or something?

Just want to know where. I'm curious. I used to live there. As someone who lives there now I'm sure you know you can tell at least something by where in NYC someone lives.

 

[tamales]

Dude, I read your posts, I see the precautions you took and the reasons you went out.  Like I said, I am not piling on.     

My point was that you dying isn't the main thing that people are talking about.  Pretty sure people know the breakdown of stats by now.  

Not even talking about Bagelgate anymore. 

Its just anytime anybody posts even a hint of optimism a bunch of people jump down that posters throat. 

I'm a NYer. I think the measures they've taken will do a great job toward flattening the curve and the whole city has basically been a ghost town for the last week. Yes there have been teenagers playing basketball in the parks. Not sure how you stop that. The death rate in NYC has been low. I like to be optimistic and hope that stays like that. 

 

[Biff84]

Yep, wife and 2 kids, all healthy and none of us are worried.    But they said stay home so we will.    I think it's ridiculous, but that's fine.   

Wait, you’re fine if you die and you have a wife and 2 kids? Seems a little cold but that’s just me.

 

[DrJ]

Wait, you’re fine if you die and you have a wife and 2 kids? Seems a little cold but that’s just me.

Well I'd prefer not to.   But I'm not gonna spend brain cycles being overly worried about the possibility either, and if it happens that's what happens.    I'm not a god faring person either so I ain't gonna call it anyone's plan.   Just kinda how it worked out.    

 

[tamales]

Weren't they supposed to get a hospital ship?

Its coming. Also supposedly going to convert Jacob Javits center

 

[shader]

For those not familiar: 

We have rapidly accelerated past this model: 

Date: Model Dead (Actual Dead) 
3/5: 12 (12)
3/10: 32 (30) 
3/15: 86 (68) 
3/17: 126 (108)
3/19: 186 (218) 
3/20: 226 (256)
3/21: 274 (341) 

That's extra scary if you look forward In the model: 

3/30: 1572 dead 
4/15: 35,068 
4/20: 92,532
4/25: 244,154
4/30: 644,227
5/5: 1,699,000
5/10: 4,485,000

You can see where the hospitals become overwhelmed and the fatality rate skyrockets...

NOT implying this model will remain accurate... distancing and many other factors can and will have a big effect on this. However it's been accurate enough for long enough that it warrants sharing. 
 

Yep. It also helps to illustrate just how many people might be out there in the “pre-hospitalization” stage right now.

The numbers on that have just exploded in the last 4-5 days. It shows that we have about 500k people in this country that are currently in the incubation stage.  Meaning they don’t know they have the virus yet......

 

[KarmaPolice]

Not even talking about Bagelgate anymore. 

Its just anytime anybody posts even a hint of optimism a bunch of people jump down that posters throat. 

I'm a NYer. I think the measures they've taken will do a great job toward flattening the curve and the whole city has basically been a ghost town for the last week. Yes there have been teenagers playing basketball in the parks. Not sure how you stop that. The death rate in NYC has been low. I like to be optimistic and hope that stays like that. 

Cool.  I really hope you are right.  

 

[shader]

If NYC is a ghost town that’s great news. I’ve seen conflicting reports. 

 

[PIK95]

So I'm late to the party in this thread but China must be keeping everything secret and fudging the numbers now, right?  I am VERY sceptical they just stopped it in it's tracks.  

 

[msommer]

Wait, you’re fine if you die and you have a wife and 2 kids? Seems a little cold but that’s just me.

Maybe she's really #####ing and nagging and he has a great life insurance?
 

 

[Capella]

For those not familiar: 

We have rapidly accelerated past this model: 

Date: Model Dead (Actual Dead) 
3/5: 12 (12)
3/10: 32 (30) 
3/15: 86 (68) 
3/17: 126 (108)
3/19: 186 (218) 
3/20: 226 (256)
3/21: 274 (341) 

That's extra scary if you look forward In the model: 

3/30: 1572 dead 
4/15: 35,068 
4/20: 92,532
4/25: 244,154
4/30: 644,227
5/5: 1,699,000
5/10: 4,485,000

You can see where the hospitals become overwhelmed and the fatality rate skyrockets...

NOT implying this model will remain accurate... distancing and many other factors can and will have a big effect on this. However it's been accurate enough for long enough that it warrants sharing. 
 

It’s not bad to share but it doesn’t account for the distancing being done in the past two weeks which makes the forward data In April unusable imo. It’s just doubling every 3 days or whatever which likely will slow down at some point. Still very good info. 

 

[KarmaPolice]

Lastly, cavalier was the wrong word to use.  

Self centered is probably what is getting the most heat around here.  Posts that are basically just "i am low death risk" might not go over well as tensions rise and people are worried about others passing it onto them and their families.  I get that.  

 

[DrJ]

Yep. It also helps to illustrate just how many people might be out there in the “pre-hospitalization” stage right now.

The numbers on that have just exploded in the last 4-5 days. It shows that we have about 500k people in this country that are currently in the incubation stage.  Meaning they don’t know they have the virus yet......

 Oh gee - when I said we had hundreds of thousands if not millions that had it already everyone got mad.    

 

[Redwes25]

Bottom line, anyone under 50 scared #### of dying from this really needs to step away from the tv and stop stressing out so much. Make no mistake about it, we are sheltering in place to save the older generation and i have no issues with that. 

I am not scared of dying from this. I am scared of thousands of others dying from this, our healthcare system collapsing and many others with treatable conditions dying because they can’t get proper care. I don’t want any of that to happen. 

 

[PIK95]

In RI today it seemed like every Baby Boomer in town was either at Lowe's or the market.  It's gonna get ugly here. 

 

[Judge Smails]

I'd say it's based on the fact that we are passing on a huge debt burden to protect a vulnerable group who happen to be the same people using SS and Medicare, broken programs that also cause us more debt.     I ain't saying it's right or wrong, but that is one element of this.   

Wait a second. Who do you think funded SS and Medicare? Now you rag on them for using what they helped fund? So let them die to save some money?

 

[PIK95]

Maybe she's really #####ing and nagging and he has a great life insurance?
 

I actually asked my wife if she kept sending me out on errands hoping to cash in my life life insurance soon.  She wasn't amused.

 

[tamales]

Lastly, cavalier was the wrong word to use.  

Self centered is probably what is getting the most heat around here.  Posts that are basically just "i am low death risk" might not go over well as tensions rise and people are worried about others passing it onto them and their families.  I get that.  

I was responding to someone the same age being scared #### of dying

 

[msommer]

So I'm late to the party in this thread but China must be keeping everything secret and fudging the numbers now, right?  I am VERY sceptical they just stopped it in it's tracks.  

In the beginning we were all like "China's numbers are bogus" 
Then WHO came out with the study on China's numbers and we were like "So, maybe they were telling the truth?" - and the #justaflubro grouping are using the case fatality rates as gospel
Now we're back to not trusting China's numbers again? 

 

[tamales]

I am not scared of dying from this. I am scared of thousands of others dying from this, our healthcare system collapsing and many others with treatable conditions dying because they can’t get proper care. I don’t want any of that to happen. 

Completely agree with that. I fear for the older generation and the economy. 

 

[DrJ]

Wait a second. Who do you think funded SS and Medicare? Now you rag on them for using what they helped fund? So let them die to save some money?

Again, I didn't say it was right or wrong.   But the reality is that funded is a relative term in this context.   They funded it for the generation before them, at just a few percent of their paychecks since their generation was massive in comparison.    Now they are getting funded on massive percents of people's paychecks, which still isn't enough.      So it's not exactly as easy as +1, -1.   

It's also notable that they were the generation that went along with the trust fund being raided for the general budget and sung the praises of Reagan and stuff. 

And even beyond SS - trillions of dollars are being taken on to both protect them, and their retirement accounts in this process.    For the younger generation, a market crash isn't necessarily an unwelcome outcome.       Like thinking about things through the eyes of my parents:   "Oh crap, this is gonna sting and I have little time to recover".      For me:  "This is gonna sting, I got some time and we'll figure out how to work things out.   If it means we work an extra year or two, whatever".      For my kids - I want them to have a real economy and stock market and not some fake BS created by loose monetary policies so they can work hard and grow wealth easily...like the boomers were able to.    And so I'd kind of like it to crash for their sake...    Instead we're handing them trillions more in debt, and I simply can't feel good about that.

 

[PIK95]

In the beginning we were all like "China's numbers are bogus" 
Then WHO came out with the study on China's numbers and we were like "So, maybe they were telling the truth?" - and the #justaflubro grouping are using the case fatality rates as gospel
Now we're back to not trusting China's numbers again? 

I never really did.  They have to keep the population buying into them being in complete control. So I get it. No way they are not way higher on deaths now imo.

 

[[icon]]

Out of curiousity does anyone have the date Italy started their national quarantine and what their doubling rate has been the last few days? 

 

[TLEF316]

NYC was basically a ghost town on Monday. My train in, which is normally 95 percent full was MAYBE 10 percent that day. Penn station and times square (which I pass through to and from the office) were freakishly empty as well.

I have to imagine it has emptied out even more in the 5 days since.

 

[shader]

It’s not bad to share but it doesn’t account for the distancing being done in the past two weeks which makes the forward data In April unusable imo. It’s just doubling every 3 days or whatever which likely will slow down at some point. Still very good info. 

I think you can change all the variables and re-run the report. I do agree that the doubling rate should have slowed down a little bit.  I also think the incubation period is a little short and should be lengthened

 

[PIK95]

Out of curiousity does anyone have the date Italy started their national quarantine and what their doubling rate has been the last few days? 

That's my main issue with Chinas numbers. I doubt Italy is inflating things.  How could have China just stopped it?  Unless everyone really did just go in a hole for two weeks but I'm skeptical.  Plus everyone is in close proximity from the little I know.

 

[Capella]

I think you can change all the variables and re-run the report. I do agree that the doubling rate should have slowed down a little bit.  I also think the incubation period is a little short and should be lengthened

Oh I didn’t know that re: changing the variables 

 

[Flying Elvis]

Curious where the people who don't see this as a huge deal live? If I lived in a suburb in a small state or the a rural area I probably wouldn't think it was a huge deal.

I live in RI where we have 66 cases as of today (3/21) and I still see it as a huge deal. There definitely still seems to be a "It Won't Happen Here" mentality. Thankfully, the state was ahead of the curve and schools were closed as of Monday this week (3/16) statewide using a shuffled April vacation to give teachers the full week this week to crash course a "distance learning" program and now schools are closed until April 6 with the expectation that they likely won't re-open at that time.

Examples of taking it seriously and keeping up with the medical information coming out: my family (wife is totally on board with a self-quarantine even though my 6th grader hates us for not letting him play with friends in the neighborhood, despite his coughing brother); including my 70 & 75 y.o. mom & dad (see, not all the parents are nuts!) but that's mostly b/c my mom worked for several RI hospitals prior to her retirement and knows first hand that they are NOT equipped for the demand for treatment that is inevitable. 

Examples of not taking it seriously: my boss who hasn't actually given a WFH order despite the fact that all employees can remote in and do all aspects of daily work from home. This is despite the fact that the state of RI declared a SoE on Monday 3/9 and directly asked all who could WFH to do so, as have most local municipalities, including the one where I live and the one where the office is located. It is also despite the fact that the Fed SoE declaration on Friday 3/13 requested the same. Oh, and the other 2 full-time employees of this small business (which is quite secure and isn't at risk of folding - even while WFH it will not close down) take public transit to the office. 

I made a grocery store trip today and only a few other shoppers had gloves on. Store was not mobbed like it would be usually on a Saturday, which I thought was good. Most people kept ok-ish distance. I should be good for 14 days. Meals will get boring by day 5 though. Hunkerin' down for a bit...

 

[msommer]

Out of curiousity does anyone have the date Italy started their national quarantine and what their doubling rate has been the last few days? 

The wiki page will have that

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Out of curiousity does anyone have the date Italy started their national quarantine and what their doubling rate has been the last few days? 

3/13 if I recall correctly. Not sure on the rate. 

 

[shader]

Out of curiousity does anyone have the date Italy started their national quarantine and what their doubling rate has been the last few days? 

They started Lombardy quarantine on March 8th and the national quarantine on March 9th. 
 

You can get their historical numbers here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Their doubling rate has definitely slowed a bit

 

[joffer]

I am not scared of dying from this. I am scared of thousands of others dying from this, our healthcare system collapsing and many others with treatable conditions dying because they can’t get proper care. I don’t want any of that to happen. 

that, and the whole “this virus destroys lung tissue” thing doesn’t sound very nice.  i definitely don’t want it.

 

[Flying Elvis]

Weren't they supposed to get a hospital ship?

It was several weeks from being ready, based on my recollection from one of many articles this week. 

 

[facook]

Happens every year in PNW in the first warm spell for me. Just checking my temperature in morn and in evening.

Yep.  Juniper is bad for me, horrible for her.

 

[Biff84]

https://www.abc15.com/news/region-central-southern-az/tucson/burglar-steals-coronavirus-test-kits-from-tucson-health-center

I’m giving up on humanity.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

I can't believe I'm still having to argue on FB with people about why this is not the flu.  keeping up the good fight though

 

[Galileo]

Out of curiousity does anyone have the date Italy started their national quarantine and what their doubling rate has been the last few days? 

per wiki... March 9th

On 8 March 2020, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte expanded the quarantine to all of Lombardy and 14 other northern provinces, and on the following day to all of Italy, placing more than 60 million people in quarantine.