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Where the numbers are being easily managed by local hospitals and clinics. Remember it's not the death rate that's the issue with this, it's the spread. Less densely populated places still aren't running into problems keeping up despite people not exactly hunkering down indoors.
This is absolutely correct. My numbers didn't come down from a stone tablet -- they were just based on a set of initial conditions and some assumptions I made about how fast daily increase % could decrease.
Is there a way for you to run the numbers just for cases involving hospitalizations? IMO, number of cases without more info doesn't really help much. Hospitals care more about how many people they are going to have to treat and how many beds they have available. So instead of TOTAL # OF CASES, have that column be TOTAL # OF HOSPITALIZATIONS instead. (Not sure where that information is accessible and if that would be hard for you to put together.)
And since I typed THIS ... another 921 have been counted.
A researcher/scientist I know in the cannabis space is also working on this project.
Yeah, you understand the issue exactly -- no aggregated hospitalization data that I'm aware of. Instead, I have to treat "confirmed cases minus ~80%" as a proxy for "hospitalizations". Fundamentally, still spitballing ... just trying to use up-to-date case numbers and (hopefully) reasonable assumptions.
Is the cycle on this still 10 days or is it higher / lower? Meaning from point of exposure to symptom presenting.
Do you all know what's in the pipeline for replicating the initial study? I assume your guys want to do a similar study with many more patients now that proof-of-concept is established. Is there an issue with sharing results with other researchers in other countries? Is this all proprietary resource or more "open source" in the world medical community?
Only a few areas have had stay at home efforts that are 10 days or longer.
The incubation period is variable -- shortest I've read about is 2 days ... longest is 24 days (though the longer ones are controversial). 5-8 days is considered the range where most people's symptoms (if they're going to get them) set in.
Also most areas had almost no testing ten days ago, so the actual numbers then were likely MUCH higher than the official numbers, meaning that the growth rate since then is actually lower than it appears to be.
Read this article. It's painful. If you want to pursue that gig, contact ABC14News. Unfortunately, competition for the position may be too much.the moops said:
Leave an few cases unquarantined and without protective measures for the population, and you get an explosion. It's likely to happen in Canada and Mexico, but maybe they'll clamp down hard on people coming in from the USA as they might be carriers.
Something else tough is that we're really still so early in the testing process. If we had two weeks of South-Korea-level testing in the rear-view mirror ...we'd have a much better idea of where we are.
It will certainly be interesting to see what happens where I am (North of Boston). We don't yet have a ton of people requiring hospitalization, but we are designated to cover overflow for the Boston hospitals. They have been at it non-stop prepping and converting places here in NH (outpatient medical facilities, a college, a high school, a nursing home, and a psych hospital so far that I know of), adding hundreds if not thousands of beds if needed. My wife was on the nursing admin side of moving all existing hospital patients all over the place, and now the hospitals are mostly empty waiting for the projected tsunami of patients to hit. So she is partly petrified if they need all those beds and partly not seeing how they could possibly fill all the beds they created. Certainly the better option is they created a lot of extra beds for nothing, but IMO we are a long way from being able to determine that.
Sorry Tim, no way.
We also don't really know what effect the fact that tests themselves are ramping up is having on the growth rate. It could be a whole different slope.
I don't think there will be an issue sharing results with other countries. I know they have been in contact with China and I think Italy too.
Good point. The ramped up testing is simultaneously rapidly increasing the case rate while lowering the death rate.
Mandatory 14 day quarantine for anybody coming into Canada (only started this week, though)
NY statewide shutdown was 3/20, 1 week ago today.
The problem is that in many places with shelter in place orders (like here) people can’t help themselves and they swarm the beaches and parks on the weekend, ending up with overcrowding and the opposite of social distancing. So they close the parking lots - keeps people from driving and flocking to these public spaces while allowing locals who can walk there to still utilize.
I think it is a big ask given the inconsistent messaging coming from the White House and individual states.
Saw this on a TV show the other night. Florida seemed to have a whole bunch of fever going at the time (compared to the norm for this time of year).
LOL.....How's the WestMount Mall doing? My wifes family came down to the states before she was born....but pretty much her whole family were born, raised and lived in London. We used to go up there all the time and when I mentioned I was from Delaware, they all thought it was right down the street.
And on the other hand we appear to only be testing the very ill or those who have been in contact with positive patients. So the numbers are terribly difficult to get a handle on.
Makes sense to appease, given the circumstances. Then enforce at the courts if it's anything other than properly distanced games of HORSE and do the same at the golf course if they are complying, as well.
Let's hope the latter, but it is certainly good to hear the preparations are being done.
