*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)

[joffer]

Georgia numbers really bad today :(  

 

[tangfoot]

It sounds like the ant-body test was approved by the FDA yesterday.  We need everyone to get tested ASAP to see how many of us have already been infected.

Check your thorax.

 

[Doug B]

In the sense of someone thinking "If it's not a positive-tested case, it's not an infection", I agree with you.

Positive-case counts do have value as a down-the-pike look at near-future hospitalizations. But yes, case counts don't inform about anything happening outside of the "testing system". That means assumptions that "kids don't get COVID infections" are baseless.

Sampling of asymptomatics and apparent healthies (incl children of a range of ages) can't come soon enough.

I respectfully disagree.  When you look at existing protocols used for administering tests I believe there are a tremendous amount of cases not being reported.  Specifically, not-at-risk groups like <20yo.  For example, Ive seen protocols which stipulate not to test for CV unless they are headed to a vent.  Think about the number of positives /not/ being reported.

If you want to use cases as "worst case", I think that makes sense.

We're not in disagreement, actually. There are case not being reported for sure ... but they typically (not 100%) won't end up needing hospital care. What we get, in the U.S., as positive-case counts is something akin to "counts of those at risk for hospitalization".

That kind of limited count is useful within the healthcare system itself. That limited count, at the same time, is far less useful for epidemiologists and statisticians trying to get a top-of-the-mountain view of transmissions throughout an entire population. There are macro-levels and micro-levels all throughout this stuff.

 

[Don't Noonan]

Check your thorax.

not sure what that is thanks

 

[Doug B]

I think the notion that there is a “high risk” group has been an obstacle to the general acceptance of social distancing policies. At first it was just the elderly, then it was people with compromising medical conditions. But there have been plenty of otherwise healthy people under 50 who have died from this disease, which suggests we don’t really know what comprises “high risk”. I’ve seen theories that blood type may play a roll (O pos  ) or some genetic marker that affects lung functionality. I read a story yesterday about an otherwise healthy 30-year-old couple who both got sick. She had moderate flu-like symptoms and recovered. He had more severe symptoms but seemed to be recovering when he suddenly died. We don’t yet understand the mechanics of this virus, so any notion that we could segregate a small percentage of our population while the rest of us go back to business as usual is foolish and a recipe for disaster.

This was a great point -- a true "low-risk" cohort barely exists. Maybe "hermits and shut-ins under 30 years old". I dunno.

 

[Doug B]

I think you don't understand how often restaurant workers wash their hands and work areas as opposed to school children. 

I bolded a part where he was talking about teacher to teacher spread. You pointing out kids not washing their hands has zero to do with that. 

Children themselves can still serve as fomites.

 

[ericttspikes]

This chart for Illinois is interesting. It tracks the increase of cases in relationship to the increase of testing. Not exactly sure if it's good news or not or if I'm understanding the data correctly, but it seems like as testing increases there is a greater number of negative cases than positive cases.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/coronavirus-data/2020/4/1/21203460/illinois-coronavirus-testing-totals-by-day-graph-live-updates

 

[Navin Johnson]

Good idea.  I'll merely add that it would be good to skip Strauss' Also Sprach Zarathustra

just my opinion

This is also a decent public Playlist. We have it playing in the background when homeschooling or having family reading time. 

https://open.spotify.com/playlist/0vvXsWCC9xrXsKd4FyS8kM?si=xA50HxIFT5-0RJZaFSnZUQ

 

[cosjobs]

Georgia numbers really bad today :(  

This is infinitely more helpful when you post the numbers

 

[Doug B]

People are trying to look for excuses to go back to normal. The same people who are saying it’s ok to open up schools are the ones that jump all over hydroxychloroquine and/or we’ll all be fine if we just wear masks.

QFT. Looking for that quick, easy out. It ain't coming.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Other than the testing, coordination, lack of supplies and mixed messaging it's been a good response though.

There's a thread in the political forum that is nothing but blaming and snarky finger pointing like this.

Please take this kind of thing there and do our best to keep this thread helping each other move forward. Thanks. 

 

[Ilov80s]

There's a thread in the political forum that is nothing but blaming and snarky finger pointing like this.

Please take this kind of thing there and do our best to keep this thread helping each other move forward. Thanks. 

My apologies, was just trying to add some levity. 

 

[cosjobs]

This chart for Illinois is interesting. It tracks the increase of cases in relationship to the increase of testing. Not exactly sure if it's good news or not or if I'm understanding the data correctly, but it seems like as testing increases there is a greater number of negative cases than positive cases.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/coronavirus-data/2020/4/1/21203460/illinois-coronavirus-testing-totals-by-day-graph-live-updates

It certainly makes sense that the symptomatic would yield more positives than the asymptomatic. I still think its good, usable data.

 

[Doug B]

Forgive my stupidity if this has already been answered - can they test to see if you had it earlier, but are recovered?

At some point in the future there will likely be a serologic test to do this but nothing available yet AFAIK.

If you mean antibodies testing via blood draw, this has been done plenty in other countries. Do you meant nothing available yet in the U.S.? I had thought it made it to the U.S., but not yet in numbers.

 

[Doug B]

Another thing to remember about asymptomatic carriers, is that everyone starts out asymptomatic. 

Don't have a link but just read an article that says there really aren't that many asymptomatic carriers. After going back and re-interviewing patients many said that they actually had symptoms but didn't report them because they didn't think it was important or that the symptoms were mild.

I like to use "asymptomatic" as shorthand for "both no-symptom people, and low-symptom people". Probably best to spell out both groups, though.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Yeah... I think a lot of people are thinking of "peaked" in the sense of sex, where it's over soon after the peak.

This isn't going to be over for quite awhile even after the peak. And the virus may be multi-orgasmic. 

I've been waiting to make a joke about Sting and Tantric sex. Is this it?

 

[Uncle Ruslan]

I know we talk about numbers a lot in this thread, but it's important to note that the CDC guidelines don't require a patient to be tested positive in order for a death to be labeled a Covid-19 death.  I know at the end of the day it means little, but the death numbers may be artificially high.

From the official CDC website

In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely. However, please note that testing for COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible.

 

[gianmarco]

If you mean antibodies testing via blood draw, this has been done plenty in other countries. Do you meant nothing available yet in the U.S.? I had thought it made it to the U.S., but not yet in numbers.

Yes, sorry, should have clarified.  I don't think we have it here yet. 

 

[Osaurus]

not sure what that is thanks

He speaks for the trees

 

[tangfoot]

not sure what that is thanks

It sounds like the ant-body test was approved by the FDA yesterday.  We need everyone to get tested ASAP to see how many of us have already been infected.

https://ants.com/ant-anatomy-101/

 

[CR69]

I know we talk about numbers a lot in this thread, but it's important to note that the CDC guidelines don't require a patient to be tested positive in order for a death to be labeled a Covid-19 death.  I know at the end of the day it means little, but the death numbers may be artificially high.

From the official CDC website

With the surge of “unknown” deaths in Florida and now this article, I’m not sure what to believe anymore...

https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-home-officials-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths

 

[moleculo]

I know we talk about numbers a lot in this thread, but it's important to note that the CDC guidelines don't require a patient to be tested positive in order for a death to be labeled a Covid-19 death.  I know at the end of the day it means little, but the death numbers may be artificially high.

From the official CDC website

I'm not sure that the number of non-COVID deaths attributed to COVID is high enough to make a huge differene, given that a doctor can use his best judgement to presume.  If patient 10 shows the same symptoms as patents 1-9 but simply hasn't taken the test, it's probably appropriate to count patent 10 as COVID.

No numbers will ever be exact.  we do the best we can with what we have.

 

[Jagov]

Update on situation here in The Netherlands. May be useful, insightful, helpful.

Today the number of new cases (777) is the lowest it has been in 2+ weeks. The number of people who need to be hospitalized continues to decrease. Only 15 new ICU additions in the entire country yesterday. There are still 900+ ICU beds available if needed. Death rates are still tragic (another 234 today) but it is starting to look like the "stay at home" measures are having the desired effect on the front side of the pipeline.

In a press conference today, the Minister President started to outline what type of things will need to be in place BEFORE steps are taken towards going back to "normal". They include:

• R0 factor needs to be at or under 1 for a significant period of time. No specific time mentioned yet.
  
• Health care system (including ICU capacity) need to have had the chance to recover from the initial burst
  
• There has to be sufficient test capacity. Current capacity is around 17K tests per day. This is far from sufficient. 
  
• There has to be sufficient capacity for source and contact checking, including  large data analysis. This at national and regional levels.
  
• There must be instruments available to measure and monitor the effects of a gradual transition back to "normal"
  

The above points come from the Dutch OMT (Outbreak Management Team). They are experts and scientists and engineers. They have been advising the Dutch government since the start. The Dutch government has always followed their advice.

The current "stay at home" measures are in effect until 28 April. Judging from the above, I expect them to be extended thru at least end of May sometime soon.

I think it is a positive sign that these people have the capacity to start looking a bit over the horizon. And a very positive sign that facts, science and data are still in the lead.

 

[parasaurolophus]

In his defense, he is arguing from the view that kids may not (or likely don’t) transmit it to others.

Yep. These conversations get so annoying. That's where we started. Then a counterpoint was brought up that teachers could spread to other teachers. My response about how schools were better setup than pretty much anywhere to avoid that was misinterpreted and when clarified Moops then replies with well so what, teachers could get it from students!

Which of course would mean now I am just repeating myself. 

 

[shader]

I'm not sure that the number of non-COVID deaths attributed to COVID is high enough to make a huge differene, given that a doctor can use his best judgement to presume.  If patient 10 shows the same symptoms as patents 1-9 but simply hasn't taken the test, it's probably appropriate to count patent 10 as COVID.

No numbers will ever be exact.  we do the best we can with what we have.

This is so true.  I think it's important to realize that we sort of have a pretty good idea of a number of things.  There likely aren't a large percentage of asymptomatic people.  This virus probably kills 1-5% of people.  The R0 number is likely 2.5-3 with no social distancing.  We have a pretty good idea of the deaths and although we know the cases aren't 100% accurate, in many countries they probably aren't too far off.  We know that most countries that are testing have a vast majority of the tests come up negative.

Those are all things that are probably true.  So when some study or random article comes in that questions something in a  fundamental way, it's probably not true.  Good to read, listen to, talk about, think about....but at this stage we likely aren't going to learn something that blows us away.

Now look, in the end if we run antibody testing and it turns out that 70% of people had a very mild form and the death rate was .02 then we can all throw a party and move on as there won't be a 2nd wave.

But as far as we know, herd immunity isn't even something ANY country is even REMOTELY close to, the VAST majority of people aren't infected, and we need to beat this with quarantining, social distancing, testing, and contact tracing. 

 

[toshiba]

Well, it's starting. Wife just got laid off, which means not only a pretty big hit to our financial situation, but an even bigger one when her health insurance stops. It's only a matter of time until the hotel shuts its doors for good. 

Niece got laid off 2 days ago. 

4 local restaurants have announced their permanent closure in the last 24 hours, including a grand dame of the local scene, place had been open 40 years. 

Unemployment claims last week were already double the previous all-time high for a single week. This week will be even worse. 

I'm glad that quarantine/self-isolation measures are keeping the hospitals from being overrun and saving lives. That's the most important thing. Now, I guess I'm just preparing for what the landscape is going to look like when this is all said and done. The effects of this are going to be catastrophic. It hasn't even been a month yet and we still have probably 4-5 more to go. 

Hopefully you and your love ones will all be alive to get new jobs.  Good luck with your health!

 

[shader]

Someone mentioned this yesterday, but France makes no sense.  

Today's numbers:  11,059 new cases, 1,417 new deaths.  

 

[Mr Anonymous]

I know we talk about numbers a lot in this thread, but it's important to note that the CDC guidelines don't require a patient to be tested positive in order for a death to be labeled a Covid-19 death.  I know at the end of the day it means little, but the death numbers may be artificially high.

From the official CDC website

Hospitals to be Reimbursed for Treating Uninsured Coronavirus Cases via the Economic Relief Package

Coincidence? Who knows for sure or to what extent? But it appears as though it would make business sense to classify as many deaths as possible as due to or suspected due to Covid-19. Apparently deaths recorded as due to flu and pneumonia have plummeted. Looking for better sourcing on that.

 

[moleculo]

This is so true.  I think it's important to realize that we sort of have a pretty good idea of a number of things.  There likely aren't a large percentage of asymptomatic people.  This virus probably kills 1-5% of people.  The R0 number is likely 2.5-3 with no social distancing.  We have a pretty good idea of the deaths and although we know the cases aren't 100% accurate, in many countries they probably aren't too far off.  We know that most countries that are testing have a vast majority of the tests come up negative.

Those are all things that are probably true.  So when some study or random articles comes in that questions something in a massive and fundamental way, it's probably not true.  Good to read, listen to, talk about, think about....but at this stage we likely aren't going to learn something that blows us away.

Now look, in the end if we run antibody testing and it turns out that 70% of people had a very mild form and the death rate was .02 then we can all throw a party and move on as there won't be a 2nd wave.

But as far as we know, herd immunity isn't even something ANY country is even REMOTELY close to, the VAST majority of people aren't infected, and we need to beat this with quarantining, social distancing, testing, and contact tracing. 

I'm not sure on the asmymptomatic (and by that, I'm including mildly symptomatic) number.  I think there is a possibility that this thing is wildly contagous, but most folks fight it off easily.  The overall numbers we see today would likely be similar (I think).  If that were the case, will have herd immunity before too long, which would be a great thing.

Still, I  believe in hope for the best and prepare for the worst.  That means, we should continue on with the assumption that your first paragraph is accurate.  

 

[RnR]

Well, it's starting. Wife just got laid off, which means not only a pretty big hit to our financial situation, but an even bigger one when her health insurance stops. It's only a matter of time until the hotel shuts its doors for good. 

Niece got laid off 2 days ago. 

4 local restaurants have announced their permanent closure in the last 24 hours, including a grand dame of the local scene, place had been open 40 years. 

Unemployment claims last week were already double the previous all-time high for a single week. This week will be even worse. 

I'm glad that quarantine/self-isolation measures are keeping the hospitals from being overrun and saving lives. That's the most important thing. Now, I guess I'm just preparing for what the landscape is going to look like when this is all said and done. The effects of this are going to be catastrophic. It hasn't even been a month yet and we still have probably 4-5 more to go. 

Really sorry to hear this.

It's brutal. And underscores why we need a clear plan on the return to operating businesses. Even if it needs to be tweaked as we go, giving these businesses a pathway to staying open is important.

 

[shader]

Shaping up to be the worst day of numbers for the US since this started

 

[cosjobs]

I've been waiting to make a joke about Sting and Tantric sex. Is this it?

too soon

 

[shader]

I'm not sure on the asmymptomatic (and by that, I'm including mildly symptomatic) number.  I think there is a possibility that this thing is wildly contagous, but most folks fight it off easily.  The overall numbers we see today would likely be similar (I think).  If that were the case, will have herd immunity before too long, which would be a great thing.

Still, I  believe in hope for the best and prepare for the worst.  That means, we should continue on with the assumption that your first paragraph is accurate.  

I hope you're right, but have seen zero evidence that you are.  Either way, we plan like herd immunity is as far away as the numbers tell us it is.

 

[moleculo]

to highlight how likely it is that China lied about all of their numbers, at no point did they ever have more than 150 people die in a single day.  Not once.  This is the most populated country on the planet, and the virus had a foothold in a city the size of NYC before anyone knew it was a thing.

Their numbers have got to be off by a factor of 10...at least.

 

[moleculo]

I hope you're right, but have seen zero evidence that you are.  Either way, we plan like herd immunity is as far away as the numbers tell us it is.

me neither.  I'm just saying - based on the data available (to me, a bottom tier analyst), you can't tell either way.  That's why anti-body testing and/or massive, wide scale testing will be so important.

 

[beer 30]

I can see not admitting a near-certain COVID patient who can walk and talk ... but at least prescribing something for the secondary infections would be decent.

So my nephew in OH has been down with what he thinks is this since Thursday of last week, fever, aches, trouble breathing, cough. Had a teleconference with his doc today. His fever broke yesterday so doc said to stay home and continue to quarantine, fluids, etc. If things get worse to call back but the doc said he should be feeling better over the next week.

Then the doc said he hasn't been able to get anybody tested that wasn't over 60.

Is that because we are still having issues with the testing or because we have some protocol that excludes people from getting a test?

 

[joffer]

Someone mentioned this yesterday, but France makes no sense.  

Today's numbers:  11,059 new cases, 1,417 new deaths.  

they're all over the place day-to-day

 

[RnR]

Hopefully you and your love ones will all be alive to get new jobs.  Good luck with your health!

What is this response, exactly?

 

[toshiba]

Hopefully you and your love ones will all be alive to get new jobs.  Good luck with your health!

What is this response, exactly?

There is a lot to be concerned about.  It is good to have perspective that everyone's health is first and foremost.  I am glad he has that perspective and wish them all well!!!

 

[RnR]

There is a lot to be concerned about.  It is good to have perspective that everyone's health is first and foremost.  I am glad he has that perspective and wish them all well!!!

Seems like an odd way to deliver that message, but cool. Thanks.

 

[Doug B]

Someone mentioned this yesterday, but France makes no sense.  

Today's numbers:  11,059 new cases, 1,417 new deaths.  

Their testing is in fits and starts.

Sort the Worldometers Coronavirus by Country chart by the rightmost column, Tests/1M pop. Look how low their testing rate is compared to most other countries, esp European countries. Their nearest neighbors are trouncing France in testing.

And France is still fourth in the world in confirmed case count. Wait until they get their testing straight.

 

[Doug B]

Hospitals to be Reimbursed for Treating Uninsured Coronavirus Cases via the Economic Relief Package

Coincidence? Who knows for sure or to what extent? But it appears as though it would make business sense to classify as many deaths as possible as due to or suspected due to Covid-19. Apparently deaths recorded as due to flu and pneumonia have plummeted to near zero. Looking for better sourcing on that.

Thanks for digging deep here. Curious to see if we can a peek under the lid.

 

[Navin Johnson]

Hospitals to be Reimbursed for Treating Uninsured Coronavirus Cases via the Economic Relief Package

Coincidence? Who knows for sure or to what extent? But it appears as though it would make business sense to classify as many deaths as possible as due to or suspected due to Covid-19. Apparently deaths recorded as due to flu and pneumonia have plummeted to near zero. Looking for better sourcing on that.

Only if they are uninsured. 

 

[Mr Anonymous]

Thanks for digging deep here. Curious to see if we can a peek under the lid.

So far I'm finding graphics saying they are sourced from the CDC website which show plummeting flu and pneumonia deaths, but none are linked and I can't find the same charts myself. There's also the argument to be made that social distancing is helping to stop the flu in its tracks. Still digging.

 

[Doug B]

I'm not sure on the asymptomatic (and by that, I'm including mildly symptomatic) number.  I think there is a possibility that this thing is wildly contagious, but most folks fight it off easily.  The overall numbers we see today would likely be similar (I think).  If that were the case, will have herd immunity before too long, which would be a great thing.  

I don't know about "wildly contagious" like measles ... but the part in red I had thought was pretty well established when you look at an overall population (and thus "most" meaning "50% + 1").

 

[Navin Johnson]

Any recommendations on the sauna? I’m usually a regular 5 day a week sauna user, and it’s one of the things I miss the most.

Can only tell you the brand we have is Interline and we are happy with it.  Not the knock you on your ### heat that you get in the sauna at your club but gets you sweating and has a nice sound system. 

 

[parasaurolophus]

I know we talk about numbers a lot in this thread, but it's important to note that the CDC guidelines don't require a patient to be tested positive in order for a death to be labeled a Covid-19 death.  I know at the end of the day it means little, but the death numbers may be artificially high.

From the official CDC website

I'm not sure that the number of non-COVID deaths attributed to COVID is high enough to make a huge differene, given that a doctor can use his best judgement to presume.  If patient 10 shows the same symptoms as patents 1-9 but simply hasn't taken the test, it's probably appropriate to count patent 10 as COVID.

No numbers will ever be exact.  we do the best we can with what we have.

I agree that the numbers aren't over reported overall. I think the number of false reports of a covid death cancel out the number of lost tests. As of right now I think the deaths are the most accurate data there is in all of this. 

There are anecdotal stories of deaths not being counted, but they never add up. What's funny is how many of the stories about this all cite the same buzzfeed story that was all based on one unnamed doctor describing one unnamed hospital at a time when CA didn't even have that many cases.

Mark Levine made a bunch of bold claims on twitter, but he backtracked on them. 

 

[cosjobs]

Someone mentioned this yesterday, but France makes no sense.  

Today's numbers:  11,059 new cases, 1,417 new deaths.  

They surrender at a much higher rate

 

[shader]

Their testing is in fits and starts.

Sort the Worldometers Coronavirus by Country chart by the rightmost column, Tests/1M pop. Look how low their testing rate is compared to most other countries, esp European countries. Their nearest neighbors are trouncing France in testing.

And France is still fourth in the world in confirmed case count. Wait until they get their testing straight.

Good point.  It does look like they are doing a terrible job at testing.  

 

[Morton Muffley]

My apologies, was just trying to add some levity. 

FWIW, I enjoyed it.  Reminded me of the People's Front of Judea, but in reverse...or was it the Judean People's Front?  Anyway, Joe's point is a fair one as this thread as been far more successful than "the thread that shall not be named"