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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (11 Viewers)

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This doesnt scare me. You dont need testing to stay below hospital capacity. Especially if you take care of the populations that get pummeled by this. 

Again if you think we can keep cases super low until a vaccine, I understand your viewpoint and would agree. 
We’re not going to keep cases low but there’s a lot between low case totals and hospital overload and we need to do what we can to push it towards the lower end.

We messed up the response the first time around. There’s lots of blame to go around for that but a lot that was unavoidable. There’s no reason that we shouldn’t do much better the second time around and testing is absolutely a part of a better response.

You can protect the high risk people and I completely agree with you on the need to do that, but if you’re not testing and contact tracing on a large scale, it’s impossible to fully protect them. You might be able to isolate yourself from the high risk people but will everyone you come in contact with do the same? If you become an asymptomatic carrier of the virus, how confident can you be that you don’t end up passing it onto someone else? With ramped up testing and contact tracing, you can at least know when you’re at high risk and change your behavior for a bit.

We can’t sustain society or the economy if we are forced to assume that anyone and everyone might be spreading the virus. That’s where we sit right now. A vaccine isn’t going to save us, herd immunity isn’t going to save us and treatments aren’t likely to save us. Massive testing won’t save us either but it will put us in a much better position to do better when the next wave comes.

 
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I suspect it to be the alcohol fumes. Lysol spray bothers me too, as does hairspray if someone is using it. I can use alcohol prep pads and most wipes without a reaction. 
A friend of mine does the wipes for the same reason, no hand sanitizer. He said even the wipe fumes bother him, but much less. He said some brands bother him more than others. 

 
This product smells horrible. It’ll have to do if there isn’t an alternative. But I’d go with any alternative I can find, even at a higher cost. Everyone in my family thinks this smells like ###
Doug says its the best price by far but a gallon from BulkApothecary is just $5 more... and it smells fine. A little different since they had to switch to corn alcohol but for a couple bucks you can get lavender or whatever essential oil from them and it will smell great.

 
I'm so glad I got covid 19 relief. However, how do you not spend it on stupid stuff? I grew up in a household where my folks were not good at saving or spending money wisely.

 
The antibody test used in the Miami testing has a very low specificity.  I don't claim to be an expert on that, but I did find it interesting.

https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/analysis/spotlight/covid-19-antibody-tests-face-very-specific-problem

The particular antibody test is the BioMedomics, which has not been reviewed by the FDA.
Yep, I alluded to this problem pages ago. Low disease prevalence leads to increased likelihood of false positives, unless test has a really, really high specificity (99%+).

 
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Doug says its the best price by far but a gallon from BulkApothecary is just $5 more... and it smells fine. A little different since they had to switch to corn alcohol but for a couple bucks you can get lavender or whatever essential oil from them and it will smell great.
Or he can add some aromatics to his and smell great as well. It does have a funky smell but I plan on adding lemon juice to mine. They recommend doing this on their website. 

 
jobarules said:
This is what frustrates a lot of people. Tons of people not practicing social distancing yet my son hasn't seen his cousins in 6 weeks
It can be tough though glad most folks are doing there part. I have seen people ignoring the rules in Brooklyn which has a ton of infections. 
 

Though at this point about 90 percent of people are wearing masks. 

 
Is sanitizer still an issue? I panic bought two bottles of an unknown brand when this all kicked off. They still sit unopened. The half bottle of Purrell that was sitting on our sink is still going strong. Our plan is two use the two unopened bottle to refill the smaller bottles but we haven't had to yet. Not once. We only go to the grocery store once a week and that is the only time we even use the stuff. Otherwise we are hunkered down at home and using soap and water. I would think many (most) would be doing the same. So why is sanitizer still such an issue?

 
Is sanitizer still an issue? I panic bought two bottles of an unknown brand when this all kicked off. They still sit unopened. The half bottle of Purrell that was sitting on our sink is still going strong. Our plan is two use the two unopened bottle to refill the smaller bottles but we haven't had to yet. Not once. We only go to the grocery store once a week and that is the only time we even use the stuff. Otherwise we are hunkered down at home and using soap and water. I would think many (most) would be doing the same. So why is sanitizer still such an issue?
I’m in the same boat as you - still haven’t used my first (of 3) 8oz bottle of sanitizer. I’m thinking my need for hand sanitizer will rise when restrictions are lifted and I’m visiting more stores.

 
Is sanitizer still an issue? I panic bought two bottles of an unknown brand when this all kicked off. They still sit unopened. The half bottle of Purrell that was sitting on our sink is still going strong. Our plan is two use the two unopened bottle to refill the smaller bottles but we haven't had to yet. Not once. We only go to the grocery store once a week and that is the only time we even use the stuff. Otherwise we are hunkered down at home and using soap and water. I would think many (most) would be doing the same. So why is sanitizer still such an issue?
I use sanitizer like 30 times a day. Nothing to do with coronavirus. I have a tall toddler so i pretty much assume feces is on everything. 

Eta; aware it doesnt kill noro

 
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This doesnt scare me. You dont need testing to stay below hospital capacity. Especially if you take care of the populations that get pummeled by this. 

Again if you think we can keep cases super low until a vaccine, I understand your viewpoint and would agree. 
Imo, testing is important so people can know how to behave.  A couple of weeks ago, my wife developed a nasty dry cough but no fever or any other symptoms.  What are we supposed to do with that?  Do we quarantine her in the basement?  Should i quarantine myself and stop going to work? 

If she could simply go to the local CVS and get tested, and if results were available immediately, we would know know what to do.

COVID doesn't present the same way to everyone.  There is a lot of grey areas in diagnosis, short of a test.  Knowing if you are negative means you can go to work, shopping, etc.  You can contribute to the economy.  Not knowing means either you sit out for a couple of weeks or you risk spreading it.

That's why IMO testing must be available and affordable.  It needs to be as quick and as common as a strep throat test.

 
I’m in the same boat as you - still haven’t used my first (of 3) 8oz bottle of sanitizer. I’m thinking my need for hand sanitizer will rise when restrictions are lifted and I’m visiting more stores.
Good point. Though admittedly, if the Texas Governor decides to open every single business tomorrow, we won't change our behavior one single bit. Wife and I are in full agreement that it will be a very long while before we set foot inside a restaurant again.

 
Imo, testing is important so people can know how to behave.  A couple of weeks ago, my wife developed a nasty dry cough but no fever or any other symptoms.  What are we supposed to do with that?  Do we quarantine her in the basement?  Should i quarantine myself and stop going to work? 

If she could simply go to the local CVS and get tested, and if results were available immediately, we would know know what to do.

COVID doesn't present the same way to everyone.  There is a lot of grey areas in diagnosis, short of a test.  Knowing if you are negative means you can go to work, shopping, etc.  You can contribute to the economy.  Not knowing means either you sit out for a couple of weeks or you risk spreading it.

That's why IMO testing must be available and affordable.  It needs to be as quick and as common as a strep throat test.
This isnt a counterpoint to what I am saying. That would ease your mind, sure. Would definitely help limit spread. 

But I am not advocating to limit spread. I am advocating to limit spread to keep it below hospital capacity. Under current testing frequency and the changes i mentioned we easily stay there. 

 
Is sanitizer still an issue? I panic bought two bottles of an unknown brand when this all kicked off. They still sit unopened. The half bottle of Purrell that was sitting on our sink is still going strong. Our plan is two use the two unopened bottle to refill the smaller bottles but we haven't had to yet. Not once. We only go to the grocery store once a week and that is the only time we even use the stuff. Otherwise we are hunkered down at home and using soap and water. I would think many (most) would be doing the same. So why is sanitizer still such an issue?
I’m in the same boat as you - still haven’t used my first (of 3) 8oz bottle of sanitizer. I’m thinking my need for hand sanitizer will rise when restrictions are lifted and I’m visiting more stores.
The stores got bought out and then the sanitizer got redirected out of the normal supply chain. I saw it briefly once at one of the local Walmarts. Wipes are still hard to find, the local stores get 6 containers at a time and you have to be one of the lucky few to pass by right after those 6 get stocked. 

 
So get the light in the body? Soo my boy was right about something  :clap:
I clicked the second link, one of the YouTube links was gone and the website appears to have a conservative tilt to it..I’m not sure singing internal organs is ever going to be viable.

I am, however, looking forward to the new Clorox Chewables.

 
Saw a tweet from the WHO that reads that there is currently no evidence that survivors of Covid-19 that display antibodies are protected from a second infection. Granted, that could change as time goes by, but that's unpleasant news.

Also, I don't know if anyone posted about this earlier.

 
Yep, I alluded to this problem pages ago. Low disease prevalence leads to increased likelihood of false positives, unless test has a really, really high specificity (99%+).
I’m still trying to wrap my brain around it, but I always assumed a specificity of 90% is good, and means 90% of tests are accurate. But actually that’s untrue and in a situation like you mentioned, low disease prevalence, 90% is essentially worthless.   But what confuses me is, why wouldn’t they know this?

 
This isnt a counterpoint to what I am saying. That would ease your mind, sure. Would definitely help limit spread. 

But I am not advocating to limit spread. I am advocating to limit spread to keep it below hospital capacity. Under current testing frequency and the changes i mentioned we easily stay there. 
Maybe i replied to the wrong post.  I was stating why testing is important and it needs to be a priority if we want to re-open. 

IMO testing is important to keep hospitals from being overrun, sure.  Its equally important to opening up the economy.  I will not be participating in an economy in a world where it takes 10 days to get a result, if people are lucky enough to be tested in the first place.

 
Saw a tweet from the WHO that reads that there is currently no evidence that survivors of Covid-19 that display antibodies are protected from a second infection. Granted, that could change as time goes by, but that's unpleasant news.

Also, I don't know if anyone posted about this earlier.
World Health Organization (WHO)

·

1h

At this point in the #COVID19 pandemic, there is not enough evidence about the effectiveness of antibody-mediated immunity to guarantee the accuracy of an “immunity passport” or “risk-free certificate.” https://bit.ly/3bE1l9g

 
World Health Organization (WHO)

·

1h

At this point in the #COVID19 pandemic, there is not enough evidence about the effectiveness of antibody-mediated immunity to guarantee the accuracy of an “immunity passport” or “risk-free certificate.” https://bit.ly/3bE1l9g
Slightly different than the one I saw:

World Health Organization (WHO)

@WHO

There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from #COVID19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection. https://bit.ly/3bE1l9g

ETA: this was 3 hours ago, so these are likely part of a thread.

 
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Or he can add some aromatics to his and smell great as well. It does have a funky smell but I plan on adding lemon juice to mine. They recommend doing this on their website. 
Extracting the oil from lemon peels with a little bit of alcohol or by squeezing through a nut sack might yield more intense fragrance with less risk of dilution.  The peel has more flavor and fragrance than the juice.

 
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Pretty much anything stomach related can survive alcohol based sanitizer. 
"Can survive" is different than wont help. The amount of virus with correct use is limited from 40-99% for even those bugs. 

I still wash my hands a ton too, just cant wash my hands 40 times a day. 

So for example when i change a diaper. I have an electronic hand sanitizer dispenser mounted to the wall. So when diaper change is complete and bag is tied off i hand sanitize. Then go to bathroom and wash my hands. I sanitize immediately so that when i touch faucets and door handles amount is greatly reduced. Then i carry the bag outside to diaper pail that was already tied off i grab a square of TP to do so, then sanitize hands again as TP isnt full membrane. 

Pink eye is my biggest fear and sanitizer takes care of that. 

 
I’m still trying to wrap my brain around it, but I always assumed a specificity of 90% is good, and means 90% of tests are accurate. But actually that’s untrue and in a situation like you mentioned, low disease prevalence, 90% is essentially worthless.   But what confuses me is, why wouldn’t they know this?
I agree 90% specificity is useless for assessing specific individual risk in the case of a low prevalence disease like this for ALL the reasons (ie Bayes theorem) we have discussed previously. Indeed, it is beyond useless, it's actually counterproductive.

But for assessing group risk it is perfectly fine.  Sure the margin of error will be a bit wider, but that can be counteracted by securing a larger population.

Does that help explain why knowledgeable people would use a test with 90% specificity on a low prevalence disease?

 
Hundreds rally at Idaho Capitol to protest Gov. Little’s stay-home order

Several hundred protesters showed up at the Idaho Capitol on Friday afternoon waving flags and signs while protesting — and proudly violating — Gov. Brad Little’s stay-home order amid the coronavirus pandemic.

The Disobey Idaho rally, hosted by three conservative groups — the Idaho Freedom Foundation, Idaho Second Amendment Alliance and Health Freedom Idaho — advocated for reopening the state for regular business and featured Rep. Tammy Nichols, R-Middleton, as emcee. Among the other speakers were Republican Reps. Chad Christensen and Christy Zito, and a few business owners.

“All they’re (Idahoans) being told is you can’t do this, and that’s not how it works,” Nichols said.

Holding signs that read “my liberties are not yours to take” and “freedom is essential,” among other things, the crowd chanted “we do not consent.”

Attendees were “encouraged to follow social distancing procedures,” according to a press release from the Idaho Freedom Foundation, but most didn’t. The crowd gathered closely and engaged with a few counterprotesters; many were not wearing masks, but were carrying guns.

After the speeches, some of the crowd marched down Capitol Boulevard toward downtown Boise.

Jaqueline Pierce is a mom and a small-business owner who brought her husband and children to the protest.

“We aren’t saying that coronavirus is not a real thing, but the fact that it doesn’t eliminate everyone’s freedoms and justify a whole statewide lockdown,” Pierce said. “And obviously the freedom to meet for religious congregation, people’s businesses, and this is a ripple effect for who is deemed essential and nonessential.”
Idaho, huh?  Mother arrested at playground for leading a group of parents/kids that protest park closure by playing in it

Short news video

Another article

:wall:

 
My brother had covid and also been around several people who had it (he's an essential worker) and so far hasn't been reinfected. 
Sorry because the experts at WHO have declared there is NO evidence.  He must just be lucky I guess.  There appears to be at least some basic evidence especially in cases like your brother that is on the front lines.  How many medical workers have had it and gone back to work and get it again.  I am quite sure each incident would be reported by the press.

 
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Sorry because the experts at WHO have declared there is NO evidence.  He must just be lucky I guess.  There appears to be at least some basic evidence especially in cases like your brother that is on the front lines.  How many medical workers have had it and gone back to work and get it again.  I am quite sure each incident would be reported by the press.
Yeah haven't seen a single story about reinfection in usa yet. Also how would curves flatten if there wasn't some form of immunity. I think there has to at least be short term immunity. Otherwise families would keep reinfecting each other. 

 
I ventured out yesterday morning and went to a BJs store (poor man's Costco) and Walmart Neighborhood Grocer.

- A lot fewer empty shelves but some things are still out. Like pasta besides elbow macaroni and for some reason Bisquick.  I can find other pancake mixes and other flour but not Bisquick.  Heck I even saw bread flour.

- About 30% wearing masks my first stop, over 50% at Walmart Neighborhood. 

- Saw plenty of paper products both stops including TP. Not sure if it's a Friday morning thing

 
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There is doubt a vaccine can be made.

Hunt for vaccine
Seems like they buried an important part in that article:

“Even if a fully effective vaccine proves impossible, Whitty believes that a partially effective vaccine would still be worth pursuing.

"You can have vaccines that are not capable of providing [high levels of] immunity, but they provide enough protection that people don't get severe disease. 

"So we might get a vaccine that is rather less effective but is sufficiently effective, that if we vaccinated everyone at a high level of dying from this... we might well be able to massively reduce fatalities even if there was still natural infections."

 
Things are definitely feeling normaler out there. What I mean by that is it's now normal to wait on a line to get in a store, stores are almost fully stocked, it's now normal to social distance, everyone is wearing a mask, workers are protected. Everyone is taking the necessary precautions. I think it's time to open non- essential stores everywhere as long as they take the same precautions. Like why can't clothing stores open? Im not saying 100% reopen like crowded places still need to hold back but some restrictions need to be lifted as people have been adapting. 

 
Things are definitely feeling normaler out there. What I mean by that is it's now normal to wait on a line to get in a store, stores are almost fully stocked, it's now normal to social distance, everyone is wearing a mask, workers are protected. Everyone is taking the necessary precautions. I think it's time to open non- essential stores everywhere as long as they take the same precautions. Like why can't clothing stores open? Im not saying 100% reopen like crowded places still need to hold back but some restrictions need to be lifted as people have been adapting. 
No.

It is not right, to open "everywhere" with everyone adopting the "same precautions."   Many cities and states need several more weeks to tamp this down still. And the severity of the precautions will vary by many factors (population density, population risk, severity of localized outbreak at that moment, etc).  Assume you understand this so would simply ask you to be far more precise in your writing because one incorrect statement within a larger position will falsify the entirety of your argument.  And you'll (wrongly) be left wondering why EVERYONE is so stupid that they disagree with EVERYTHING you write.

 
Things are definitely feeling normaler out there. What I mean by that is it's now normal to wait on a line to get in a store, stores are almost fully stocked, it's now normal to social distance, everyone is wearing a mask, workers are protected. Everyone is taking the necessary precautions. I think it's time to open non- essential stores everywhere as long as they take the same precautions. Like why can't clothing stores open? Im not saying 100% reopen like crowded places still need to hold back but some restrictions need to be lifted as people have been adapting. 
I'd like to hear how it's possible for a clothing store to open where people aren't all touching the same merchandice.  Even if you don't allow folks to try it on, people will still have to fumble thru stacks of clothes to find the right size.

It's not all about 6' of space, you also don't want fomites.

 
I'd like to hear how it's possible for a clothing store to open where people aren't all touching the same merchandice.  Even if you don't allow folks to try it on, people will still have to fumble thru stacks of clothes to find the right size.

It's not all about 6' of space, you also don't want fomites.
Nothing will ever be 100%. That doesn't mean with necessary precautions we can't limit the risk just like grocery stores and pharmacies are currently doing. 

 
Maybe clothing stores limit capacity, make everyone clean hands with sanitizer before entering or have employees get sizes (no browsing etc). It's not like tons of people aren't touching the groceries we shop for. 

Maybe malls can set up hand wash stations. Let's not pretend we're not adapting now and that adaptation can't keep happening. All I know is it will be impossible to wait until 100% of the risk to be gone. 

 
I haven't been in this thread for a while.  However, I'm going to share some personal stuff here.

My brother just turned 48.  He been afflicted with liver cancer for the last year or so.  The other day, he was putting a pot away in the kitchen and his arm went Dave Dravecky and broke.  It turns out the cancer has reached his bones.

As if that weren't bad enough, they take him to the hospital where they discover he also has COVID-19.  :cry:  At this point, it's a matter of which one gets him first.

 
I'd like to hear how it's possible for a clothing store to open where people aren't all touching the same merchandise.  Even if you don't allow folks to try it on, people will still have to fumble thru stacks of clothes to find the right size.

It's not all about 6' of space, you also don't want fomites.
While I have often banged the fomite drum in this thread ... I am slowly coming around to the notion that fomites -- in certain circumstances -- will end up being more readily mitigated than other transmission vectors.

I don't think, in the instances of clothing stores, that handling clothing is a particularly strong virus vector as it is. Combined that with increased vigilance, having to hand-sanitize to get into the clothing store and perhaps having to do it again once again upon entering a section to go through clothes ... clothes shopping shouldn't be too hard to make into a safe experience.

Keep in mind that it's not mere "touching"** that's the issue -- it's "touching with virus-laden hands". That can almost totally be prevented with some non-onerous measures upfront IMHO.
 

** and A LOT of people in my meatspace believe this -- that virtually ALL surfaces everywhere all over the planet right now are covered in a layer of infectious coronavirus. Those people are categorically wrong.

 
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If it's even possible, it isn't happening any time soon. We can't shut down the world economy for 18 months. People who are willing to go back to work are going to need to be allowed to go back to work, and soon.
We have been shut down for about 6 weeks so far. 

Gas prices have fallen to levels not seen in decades, the government has issued trillions of dollars in relief and our national unemployment is already in the double digit range.  We won't survive 6 months of this, much less 18.  If we can't at least relieve some of the pressure by June, the economy will be a shell of it former self and it will take us several years to recover.

This is the most difficult tight rope walk we've faced as a nation since the Civil War.

 
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