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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (6 Viewers)

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That conspiracy video is making the rounds on my local Nextdoor. Somebody laughed at the person who posted it and they went on some unhinged rant. :mellow:

 
JbizzleMan said:
That conspiracy video is making the rounds on my local Nextdoor. Somebody laughed at the person who posted it and they went on some unhinged rant. :mellow:
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If you really want to unhinge people on there, get it deleted. 

Thats what happened here. The guy that reported it said he was reporting it too so it really riled them up. 

 
Rohn Jambo said:
The media thinks they can build a larger audience by being more tabloid like and polarizing but that is exactly how they are driving themselves out of business.  
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If they could make more money providing sober, straightforward reporting free of punditry, they would do so. 

 
Riverside Country in CA has just announced that it will be open. No masks required. People encouraged to stay home. I wonder how this goes. 

 
toshiba said:
I hindsight with how New York has handled things over the past 2 months I have got to say I am very impressed.  The number of lives saved with the measures implemented have been great!  No doom and gloom here. Just appreciation for how my state government has handled this.
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Short memory.  Cuomo said some things at the start of this he wishes he didn't and downplayed the severity until it exploded.

But since then the govt. there has done much better than most.

 
TheWinz said:
Let's run through deaths by continent (yes, I know Oceania is not a continent):

North America - 89,054 deaths / pop 368,869,647 = 241 deaths per million
Europe - 151,971 deaths / 747,571,332 = 203 deaths per million
South America - 15,400 deaths / pop 430,239,925 = 36 deaths per million
Asia - 21,907 deaths / 4,635,255,719 = 5 deaths per million
Oceania - 118 deaths / pop 42,677,813 = 3 deaths per million
Africa - 2,232 deaths / pop 1,335,622,799 = 2 deaths per million

What's wrong with this picture?
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South America - testing shortage.  From stories it's likely that just Ecuador has 10k deaths.  Goodness knows what Brazil's real toll is.

Asia - China has and is lying about a host of things, including this.  Testing shortage in places like Bangladesh and India are surely skewing those numbers, as well.

Oceania - isolated islands do have an advantage.

Africa - we'll never have a good idea of the toll there.

 
Dr. Dena Grayson Retweeted

Dr. Dena Grayson

@DrDenaGrayson

Germany's #coronavirus reproduction rate (R0, # of new cases/infected person) nearly DOUBLED from 0.65 to 1.1 in less than a week after easing #lockdown. I’ve warned that this highly contagious #coronavirus will spread like wildfire as we reopen.

 
JbizzleMan said:
Dr. Dena Grayson Retweeted

Dr. Dena Grayson

@DrDenaGrayson

Germany's #coronavirus reproduction rate (R0, # of new cases/infected person) nearly DOUBLED from 0.65 to 1.1 in less than a week after easing #lockdown. I’ve warned that this highly contagious #coronavirus will spread like wildfire as we reopen.
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I was just reading this thread. 

They eased restrictions wednesday and reported that the rate had increased yesterday. That seems awfully quick. 

 
The common weekend dip at Covid worldometers?  80,000 new cases and 3,500 deaths.  Russia's still Russia.  U.S. only reporting 20,000 new cases and 750 deaths.  I don't recall U.S. numbers dipping as much on the weekend, so those could be encouraging signs.

 
tri-man 47 said:
The common weekend dip at Covid worldometers?  80,000 new cases and 3,500 deaths.  Russia's still Russia.  U.S. only reporting 20,000 new cases and 750 deaths.  I don't recall U.S. numbers dipping as much on the weekend, so those could be encouraging signs.
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Definitely encouraging and while there have been some lower weekend number for the US previously, nothing as low as this.  I am going to attribute the lower numbers to several things:

  • Continuation of downward trend (first in cases, now in deaths) that we have seen for the past week or so
  • NY deaths are crazy low and, as such, likely an outlier...will be happy to be wrong
  • Many other states (NY, NJ, TX, etc) show clear patterns of under-reported deaths during the weekend.  My guess is that NY was more consistent in reporting daily deaths and so as they were the epicenter made the total US numbers appear very consistent.  Now that their numbers are declining the inconsistent weekend reporting elsewhere is having a more noticeable effect


So, my guess is that the deaths are declining, but nearly as precipitously as today's numbers would suggest.

 
OPEN NOW!  Here is why:
“Lock-Down”, “Shelter-In-Place”, “Stay-At-Home” all these terms used (maybe more in the other thread that I shalt not post in) we never did, not really.  For frame of reference, King County WA, maybe NY and California took a more stringent approach but not many places stricter with the guidelines as Jay Inslee.  Several weeks ago, before Jay implemented Phase 1 here is my observation at a typical strip mall while in the car waiting for the wife to pick up subscriptions:
Dentist – Closed (later opened for emergency care)
Donut Shot – Open, essential
Sandwich Shop – Open, essential
Supplement Store – Open, essential
Cigar/Smoke Shop – Open, essential
Pharmacy – Open, essential
Dry Cleaner – Closed
Jewelry Store – Closed
Pet Food Store – Open, essential
Nail Salon – Closed
Supermarket – Open, essential
Coffee Shop – Open, essential
Physical Therapy – Closed
Dollar Store – Open, essential
Hardware/Auto – Open, essential
So, 2/3rds, 66% of businesses remained open anyway.  The parking lots are not empty.  People are out and interacting.  If we are to believe the ability of this virus to rapidly spread, staying at home isn’t the smoking gun that has driven down infection rates.  More likely its people’s behavior when they went out and about and continued on with the 66% of their daily life activities that they are allowed to.  People staying 6 feet apart, washing hands, wearing face coverings*, limiting the number of people in a business at a time and regular cleaning of surfaces in businesses.  I haven’t gone to a restaurant in months obviously, but, my visits to Home Depot have doubled and tripled because of the types of activities I am allowed.  
It’s 100% completely unfair to the businesses that haven’t been deemed “essential”.  If we’ve successfully implemented social distancing and hygiene for Donut Shops and Cigar Stores we can figure it out for Nail Salons and Dry Cleaning.  [I purposely chose these 4 examples, 2 deemed essential and 2 not because I’d wager if you polled the population on these 4 you wouldn’t get a clear winner of which are really essential.]  Golf is allowed in Phase 1 with only 2somes unless the 4some is living in the same house hold.  You can apply the exact same logic with restaurants at every other table.  The logic is exactly the same and 33% of the businesses are currently being treated unfairly.
*(Face coverings are pretty silly and in my observation aren’t a smoking gun either.  At the popularity peek it didn’t exceed 50 or 60% of the people out wearing them, so apply the same logic as the lock-down that never really happened.  If you have a cough, stay home.  If you have allergies, wear a mask. Otherwise stay 6 feet away from people and wash your damn hands.)
 

 
Interesting paper about herd immunity https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v1.full.pdf

If I understand it properly, it argues that the 60-80% threshold for herd immunity assumes that everyone has the same susceptibility and exposure to the virus.  If this is substantially non-uniform, the people who are either especially susceptible or have a high amount of close social interaction will tend to be infected earlier, taking them out of the pool as a vector.  Thus, the potential pool becomes heavier with people who are unlikely to be infected, and this can cause herd immunity to effectively occur at much lower levels (if really high variability, it suggests it could be lower than 20%)

It's an intriguing theory, because I can't find any other compelling reason for NYC's dramatic decline compared to everywhere else.  I know people will argue that they are uniquely well isolating themselves because of their first-hand experience, but the little data I've seen people post from Google and Apple metrics doesn't seem to show that.  Additionally, the conventional wisdom has been that Europe has had more "serious" lockdowns, and their curves have not dropped nearly as fast as NYC either.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
We're basically everyone wearing masks away from having all other freedoms returned and people can't do one simple thing. Ugh
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What seems odd to me is that those who insist on not wearing a mask at a store ...

They drove to the store, generally obeying the speed limit; they stopped at red lights; they parked between the yellow lines; they wore a shirt and shoes into the store.  But wear a mask?  "Don't tell me what to do!"  :shrug:  

 
Just finished the opinion piece on the WSJ saying China virus has 50 to 85 times as many infections as known cases—meaning a far lower fatality rate.  For those of you staying at home does this change your mind?  I stick with the opinion that this will be the biggest mistake in human history.  We will have caused far more misery and death through economics than the virus ever could have cuased.

 
Spent the day in Gruene with the family.... one of my favorite spots on earth.

Beautiful weather, went tubing, ate at Gristmill (2 hour wait), walked around town a bit shopping.  Nobody wearing masks but the people working (servers, cashiers, etc).

A fantastic day.

Highly recommend.  What a great reminder of what we were missing. :thumbup:

 
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boots11234 said:
Just finished the opinion piece on the WSJ saying China virus has 50 to 85 times as many infections as known cases—meaning a far lower fatality rate.  For those of you staying at home does this change your mind?  I stick with the opinion that this will be the biggest mistake in human history.  We will have caused far more misery and death through economics than the virus ever could have cuased.
Click to expand...
Not really, they are also suspected to have many, many more deaths than were reported as well. Look at it this way. Suppose China really had 50x more (the low end of that increased estimate) infections and we use their official death #s. That puts the new mortality rate nearly identical with with the commonly cited flu mortality rate  (.11% vs .1%). Let's assume that is true. In the US we have about 81000 confirmed COVID19 deaths (and I would argue this is underestimating and most would agree). Regardless, let's go with 81000 COVID19 deaths. That would mean with 81000 we would need ~22% of the entire US to be infected to hit that .11%. Over 1 in 5 people would need to be infected in the past 2 - 3 months. That seems extraordinarily high. *Any* article that tries to place the mortality rate at the same level of the flu should be dismissed outright.

 
shader said:
I’ve also been thinking about TN “opening up” 

Let’s be honest, it really hasn’t happened yet.  Yes, more people are out, some people are socializing, more stores are open...but is TN open?  Not even close.

The indoor malls are empty, churches empty, movie theaters empty, restaurants half full at best. No one is on planes, the downtown area in Nashville is a shell of itself, no sports, no concerts, no springtime festivals..

So perhaps this half opening can happen and keep the R0 under 1 and further drive down the active cases.  We shall see.
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People are afraid on dying - whether their level of fear is justified is impossible to know but what is happening in GA is kind of what I expected.  They opened up things but nobody is going (in most cases).  This is the Bible belt and almost every church I've heard of hasn't opened yet.  I think fear and boredom are driving people's decisions right now more than science.  Thankfully I'm in a situation where I can stay quarantined for a long time.

 
rcam said:
In the US we have about 81000 confirmed COVID19 deaths (and I would argue this is underestimating and most would agree).
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This is where your thought process is wrong IMO. I most certainly don't think most agree with this. If you have terminal cancer or a heart attack and also happen to catch Covid, that's tallied as a Covid death. If you display "shortness of breath" before dying, you're listed as a Covid death. And many deaths are Flu related (similar symptoms). The Flu didn't magically disappear during the pandemic. They're all chalked up to Covid. The #s you provided are most likely grossly OVERstated, not understated. 

 
Warrior said:
This is where your thought process is wrong IMO. I most certainly don't think most agree with this. If you have terminal cancer or a heart attack and also happen to catch Covid, that's tallied as a Covid death. If you display "shortness of breath" before dying, you're listed as a Covid death. And many deaths are Flu related (similar symptoms). The Flu didn't magically disappear during the pandemic. They're all chalked up to Covid. The #s you provided are most likely grossly OVERstated, not understated. 
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The SIPs say the death numbers are understated.  The Let-Er-Rips say overstated.  For this reason, I tend to believe the numbers are reasonable.

 
Warrior said:
rcam said:
In the US we have about 81000 confirmed COVID19 deaths (and I would argue this is underestimating and most would agree).
Click to expand...
This is where your thought process is wrong IMO. I most certainly don't think most agree with this. If you have terminal cancer or a heart attack and also happen to catch Covid, that's tallied as a Covid death. If you display "shortness of breath" before dying, you're listed as a Covid death. And many deaths are Flu related (similar symptoms). The Flu didn't magically disappear during the pandemic. They're all chalked up to Covid. The #s you provided are most likely grossly OVERstated, not understated.
Click to expand...
All of the above is anecdotal and irrelevant, IMO.  We know the typical number of total US deaths during Jan, Feb, March, April of a given year.  We know this because we can look at historical statistics from 2015, 2016, 2017...

We know the total number of people who died in the US in Jan, Feb, March, April of 2020.  Simple math gets us the difference between 2020 and a normal year.  That number is quite a bit higher than the official counts (like 50% higher).  The difference is due to COVID.

 
Rich Conway said:
All of the above is anecdotal and irrelevant, IMO.  We know the typical number of total US deaths during Jan, Feb, March, April of a given year.  We know this because we can look at historical statistics from 2015, 2016, 2017...

We know the total number of people who died in the US in Jan, Feb, March, April of 2020.  Simple math gets us the difference between 2020 and a normal year.  That number is quite a bit higher than the official counts (like 50% higher).  The difference is due to COVID.
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Common sense says otherwise but don't let that stand in the way of your wild assumptions. 

 
Warrior said:
Rich Conway said:
All of the above is anecdotal and irrelevant, IMO.  We know the typical number of total US deaths during Jan, Feb, March, April of a given year.  We know this because we can look at historical statistics from 2015, 2016, 2017...

We know the total number of people who died in the US in Jan, Feb, March, April of 2020.  Simple math gets us the difference between 2020 and a normal year.  That number is quite a bit higher than the official counts (like 50% higher).  The difference is due to COVID.
Click to expand...
Common sense says otherwise but don't let that stand in the way of your wild assumptions. 
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You do understand that math and statistics are the exact opposite of "wild assumptions", right?

 
AAABatteries said:
People are afraid on dying - whether their level of fear is justified is impossible to know but what is happening in GA is kind of what I expected.  They opened up things but nobody is going (in most cases).  This is the Bible belt and almost every church I've heard of hasn't opened yet.  I think fear and boredom are driving people's decisions right now more than science.  Thankfully I'm in a situation where I can stay quarantined for a long time.
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Florida (except for the 3 hard hit counties in South FL) opened up restaurants partially last week and they were quite busy from what I've seen. I did Mothers Day takeout last night and they were flooded with to go orders and a decent dine in crowd. Traffic, still below normal,  definitely picking up. 

Hair salons and barbers open up today. My mini mullet is living on borrowed time.

Local Catholic diocese is starting Masses back up next weekend. I'm planning to attend the outdooor Mass they're offering.  Indoor services will have social distancing with set cut off number of people and overflow in gym. No Sign of Peace,  communion distributed as you leave.

 
Rich Conway said:
All of the above is anecdotal and irrelevant, IMO.  We know the typical number of total US deaths during Jan, Feb, March, April of a given year.  We know this because we can look at historical statistics from 2015, 2016, 2017...

We know the total number of people who died in the US in Jan, Feb, March, April of 2020.  Simple math gets us the difference between 2020 and a normal year.  That number is quite a bit higher than the official counts (like 50% higher).  The difference is due to COVID.
Click to expand...
Well that’s just like, your science, man.

The true scope of a pandemic only becomes clear after it’s over

 
boots11234 said:
Just finished the opinion piece on the WSJ saying China virus has 50 to 85 times as many infections as known cases—meaning a far lower fatality rate.  For those of you staying at home does this change your mind?  I stick with the opinion that this will be the biggest mistake in human history.  We will have caused far more misery and death through economics than the virus ever could have cuased.
Click to expand...
How does one reconcile assuming China is understating infections by a factor of 50+ but accept their reported fatalities?

 
Sand said:
toshiba said:
I hindsight with how New York has handled things over the past 2 months I have got to say I am very impressed.  The number of lives saved with the measures implemented have been great!  No doom and gloom here. Just appreciation for how my state government has handled this.
Click to expand...
Short memory.  Cuomo said some things at the start of this he wishes he didn't and downplayed the severity until it exploded.

But since then the govt. there has done much better than most.
Click to expand...
I wouldn’t say “until it exploded” but he wasn’t calling it a pandemic back in January.

 
toshiba said:
Sand said:
toshiba said:
I hindsight with how New York has handled things over the past 2 months I have got to say I am very impressed.  The number of lives saved with the measures implemented have been great!  No doom and gloom here. Just appreciation for how my state government has handled this.
Click to expand...
Short memory.  Cuomo said some things at the start of this he wishes he didn't and downplayed the severity until it exploded.

But since then the govt. there has done much better than most.
Click to expand...
I wouldn’t say “until it exploded” but he wasn’t calling it a pandemic back in January.
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Both are true IMO.

Cuomo got off to a very slow start.

He’s been consistent in his messaging for the last two months. Stellar leadership, and I’m not a fan by any means. Bit like Rudy after 9/11; he was wearing thin and growing more unpopular by the day, but when tragedy struck, he gave the country the leadership they were yearning for.

 
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