*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (9 Viewers)

[gianmarco]

And here is a dog Zoom meeting

 

[Brony]

We Know Everything – And Nothing – About Covid

Interesting article - you can disagree with some of his theories about hospital transmission, and overreacting to the threat of casual spread. But I think he is 100% correct about our lack of data, and how worthless our modeling is when the data is poor. Some of the daily stats I see can so easily be misunderstood - # of new cases is meaningless if not in the context of # of tests, and even those tests, are results being reported quickly? How long ago were they taken? Death total drop right after the weekend because the people who tabulate weren't at work. So much bad data, old data, trying to take old and new data and clump it all together. It's nearly impossible to make rational decisions about what to do when the data isn't robust and clearly reported.

Thanks for posting. This echos some of the frustration that I've been feeling that we really don't have a great grasp on how this gets transmitted.  Remember everyone freaking out that a guy in New Zealand went to a concert while knowing he had COVID?  Turns out that didn't cause a pandemic spread in NZ. 

I'm certainly not saying to throw up our hands and go back to normal as there is enough data that certain geographies/populations are having better outcomes than others. I just wish the guidance on recommended behaviors was evidence-based and not just overkill on everything.  And I say this not to avoid wearing masks or washing my wands, I just want better sense of low risk and high risk situations for this particular virus.  Without this, everything is high risk and the data to date says that not everything is high risk. 

Here is a comparison of where various countries are at relative to peak death rate.  I thought this was interesting. 

 

[beer 30]

Wuhan to test all 11 million residents after discovering new infections.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/05/12/1001608/wuhan-will-test-all-11-million-residents-after-spotting-its-first-new-coronavirus-cases/

 

[IvanKaramazov]

We Know Everything – And Nothing – About Covid

Interesting article - you can disagree with some of his theories about hospital transmission, and overreacting to the threat of casual spread. But I think he is 100% correct about our lack of data, and how worthless our modeling is when the data is poor. Some of the daily stats I see can so easily be misunderstood - # of new cases is meaningless if not in the context of # of tests, and even those tests, are results being reported quickly? How long ago were they taken? Death total drop right after the weekend because the people who tabulate weren't at work. So much bad data, old data, trying to take old and new data and clump it all together. It's nearly impossible to make rational decisions about what to do when the data isn't robust and clearly reported.

Good article.  There is a bunch of helpful stuff here, but I think it's especially important to note the following:

A study of 391 cases of Covid-19 and 1,286 of their contacts, in the Shenzhen region of China, found that 80 per cent of cases were transmitted by just 9 per cent of carriers, and that only 11 per cent of those sharing a household with a case caught the virus. By contrast, a study of a nursing home in Washington state found that 23 days after the first case was diagnosed on 20 January, 64 per cent of residents tested positive, half of them showing no symptoms. An analysis by Dr Muge Cevik of St Andrews University of 14 similar studies concluded that prolonged and close contact is necessary for transmitting the virus and the risk is highest in enclosed environments: households, long-term care facilities and public transport. She adds: ‘Casual, short interactions are not the main driver… Epidemic intensity is strongly shaped by crowding.’

 

[shader]

Misconception about herd immunity

Not sure if posted yet as I've stopped checking in here frequently.

Thanks for that.  Somewhere along the way, some people seem to have gotten the idea that herd immunity might just be the path we have to go down, and that we aren't that far from it.  

If we reach herd immunity, that's a very, very bad thing.   And as your link shows, we are a long way from that.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Alberta Canada guidelines for places of worship

Just one community’s suggestion, haven’t seen others.

No idea when our church will reopen. We have 3 services at 3500 each. To observe social distancing - every other row, every fourth seat - would equate to around 437. We have ~ 1K volunteers, think we’ve tried 7 or 8 services on Easter/ Mother’s Day in the past but realistically 6 is the max per Sunday. Which is 2,622 v. 10.5K pre-Covid.

Gonna be awhile.

 

[parasaurolophus]

We Know Everything – And Nothing – About Covid

Interesting article - you can disagree with some of his theories about hospital transmission, and overreacting to the threat of casual spread. But I think he is 100% correct about our lack of data, and how worthless our modeling is when the data is poor. Some of the daily stats I see can so easily be misunderstood - # of new cases is meaningless if not in the context of # of tests, and even those tests, are results being reported quickly? How long ago were they taken? Death total drop right after the weekend because the people who tabulate weren't at work. So much bad data, old data, trying to take old and new data and clump it all together. It's nearly impossible to make rational decisions about what to do when the data isn't robust and clearly reported.

My county is doing drive thru testing. Anybody can get a test for free. Three days of it. We will of course see a massive spike in case counts on a % basis. People will freak out. 

Those case counts will mean almost nothing. Our current case count is low. So even 45 new cases being identified will make a huge difference. 

All cases arent the same either. So if 42 of them are single 30 year olds or 42 of them are married 70 year old people means a great deal. Are the 45 cases from one employer that is deemed essential? Are they from one apartment complex? 

What about when a county has a prison outbreak? Or a meatpacking plant? 

 

[tri-man 47]

Interesting charts in this CNN article.

 

[MTskibum]

Have a week of furlough to kill next week, and the GF has to burn.5 vacation days... soooooo we are going on a road trip to visit a couple friends in Knoxville / Asheville... catch some of the Blue Ridge Parkway. 

Driving is Easy to keep safe. Gas stops are easy. Restroom breaks are the "Riskiest" aspect. 

Getting hotel rooms, and trusting the properties to do a decent job of sanitizing. Prob will wipe things down upon arrival. 

GF is worried about spending extended time in folks houses, and with using their bathrooms. Working on easing up those nerves of hers a little bit. 
 

I am in a similar situation. We took an 11 hour road trip this last weekend to my in-laws house. We quarantined and asked my wife's parents to quarantine for a week ahead of time.

On the drive we did not step foot into a building. It is very rural where were, but we brought a bucket for my wife/daughter and I just went into the bushes. It seemed to work out well enough. My wife was not thrilled, but she understands her parents are in her 70's and need those precautions.

 

[zftcg]

So... the office sent out a super official message saying we're reopening next week.

I think I'll sit it out another week just to see how it plays out.

I definitely recommend that if you can. Unfortunately, my office forced me to come in today (on a 50% schedule moving forward), despite the fact that I have two children at home and my wife has a full-time job. So basically I have to force all the childcare onto her whenever I'm in the office instead of having us split it up throughout the day. What's especially infuriating is that they can't give us any reason for why we need to come in, other than that we work as part of a large international organization and it's very clear that some distant paper-pushing bureaucrat wants to be able to check the box. What's more, people in the office are not wearing masks or being especially vigilant about social distancing. Basically the whole thing is a huge CF.

Stay home unless you absolutely need to go in. 

 

[shader]

https://twitter.com/Pervaizistan/status/1260212287056621568?s=20

NEW: NYC now has 52 confirmed cases of multi-system inflammatory syndrome; *10 more children being evaluated *25 tested positive for coronavirus •22 positive for antibodies * 1 child has died. "They continue to grow, & that’s why we are really concerned,” Mayor de Blasio

 

[Sammy3469]

NYC and the surronding region is seeing more cases in children:

52 children in New York City now have a rare syndrome linked to the virus.

Fourteen more children in New York City were found to have a rare and dangerous inflammatory syndrome that appears to be connected to the coronavirus, Mayor Bill de Blasio said on Tuesday.

So far, the city has reported 52 cases of the illness, which is known as pediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome and causes life-threatening inflammation in critical organs and can have serious effects on the heart. Ten potential cases were being evaluated, Mr. de Blasio said.

One child died of the illness in New York City last week.

“We’re seeing something that’s very troubling,” the mayor said at his daily news briefing. “And we’re combining the efforts of health care professionals all over New York City to understand what it is and how to deal with it.”

The illness began to appear in the region in recent weeks, and doctors and researchers are still investigating how and why it affects children.

Statewide, at least 93 children have the syndrome, and three people have died, officials have said.

Mr. de Blasio’s announcement came as Connecticut reported its first cases of the syndrome on Monday. So far, six children in Connecticut are being treated for the ailment, Gov. Ned Lamont and health officials said.

Three of the cases were announced by Mr. Lamont on Monday at his daily briefing.

“I think right now it’s a very, very tiny risk of infection,” Mr. Lamont said. “It was not really ever detected in Asia, which, I don’t quote know what that implies.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/12/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html?type=styln-live-updates&label=new york&index=2#link-18e3f43a

 

[zftcg]

Thanks for that.  Somewhere along the way, some people seem to have gotten the idea that herd immunity might just be the path we have to go down, and that we aren't that far from it.  

If we reach herd immunity, that's a very, very bad thing.   And as your link shows, we are a long way from that.

I have searched long and hard for this clip, but I distinctly remember as a kid watching a Clint Eastwood western where Clint finds himself facing down six knife-wielding bad guys. One of them points out that he already fired his six-shooter once, so he only has enough bullets to shoot five of them. Clint says, "OK, so which five of you are willing to get shot so that the other one can do the stabbing?"

When people are talking about herd immunity without a vaccine, that's what they're proposing.

 

[Doug B]

Thanks for posting. This echos some of the frustration that I've been feeling that we really don't have a great grasp on how this gets transmitted.  Remember everyone freaking out that a guy in New Zealand went to a concert while knowing he had COVID?  Turns out that didn't cause a pandemic spread in NZ. 

I'm certainly not saying to throw up our hands and go back to normal as there is enough data that certain geographies/populations are having better outcomes than others. I just wish the guidance on recommended behaviors was evidence-based and not just overkill on everything.  And I say this not to avoid wearing masks or washing my wands, I just want better sense of low risk and high risk situations for this particular virus.  Without this, everything is high risk and the data to date says that not everything is high risk.

Exactly this. Thank you.

My spidey sense is that we could come very, very close to a pre-COVID normal -- and safely -- with just "overkill" hand washing/sanitizing (30-50 X daily) and a general aversion to crowding other people's space. I am speculatively certain that fit-tested N95 masks are not needed for normal out-and-about use for regular people. Plain-old cloth earloop masks are likely more than enough to help make retail outings, etc. a lot safer ... but I suspect that even cloth masks are not necessary -- not until I see much harder evidence that "breath from a distance" definitely transmits the virus.

Still boggles my minds that fomites have been pushed aside as a common vector. I hope the data underlying that is firm and replicated -- I've seen almost nothing of what underpins the "it ain't fomites" advice.

 

[Doug B]

Wuhan to test all 11 million residents after discovering new infections.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/05/12/1001608/wuhan-will-test-all-11-million-residents-after-spotting-its-first-new-coronavirus-cases/

I hope they are free and open with the data. Would be helpful to the world community at large ... and it would be the least the nation could do.

 

[Doug B]

Good article.  There is a bunch of helpful stuff here, but I think it's especially important to note the following:

A study of 391 cases of Covid-19 and 1,286 of their contacts, in the Shenzhen region of China, found that 80 per cent of cases were transmitted by just 9 per cent of carriers, and that only 11 per cent of those sharing a household with a case caught the virus. By contrast, a study of a nursing home in Washington state found that 23 days after the first case was diagnosed on 20 January, 64 per cent of residents tested positive, half of them showing no symptoms. An analysis by Dr Muge Cevik of St Andrews University of 14 similar studies concluded that prolonged and close contact is necessary for transmitting the virus and the risk is highest in enclosed environments: households, long-term care facilities and public transport. She adds: ‘Casual, short interactions are not the main driver… Epidemic intensity is strongly shaped by crowding.’

Needs to be independently and repeatedly corroborated ... but the parts in red make all kinds of intuitive sense.

Never could wrap my head around the idea that someone breathing softly 20 feet, or in the office 40 feet down the hall (shared HVAC) -- or whatever -- could transmit a viral infection. I don't even think measles -- known to be easily airborne on tiny exhaled droplets and to 'achieve' R0 numbers in the teens -- spreads quite that easy over distance or via HVAC.

 

[zftcg]

Exactly this. Thank you.

My spidey sense is that we could come very, very close to a pre-COVID normal -- and safely -- with just "overkill" hand washing/sanitizing (30-50 X daily) and a general aversion to crowding other people's space. I am speculatively certain that fit-tested N95 masks are not needed for normal out-and-about use for regular people. Plain-old cloth earloop masks are likely more than enough to help make retail outings, etc. a lot safer ... but I suspect that even cloth masks are not necessary -- not until I see much harder evidence that "breath from a distance" definitely transmits the virus.

Still boggles my minds that fomites have been pushed aside as a common vector. I hope the data underlying that is firm and replicated -- I've seen almost nothing of what underpins the "it ain't fomites" advice.

Definitely agree with your broader point that we need more data to better understand transmission, but I recall reading somewhere that countries with high adoption rates of masks had significantly lower transmission rates. I'll see if I can dig up that data and post it here.

 

[matuski]

Our family is driving to our normal fishing resort in Central Minnesota here in about 3 weeks. For us it's a 10 hour drive. Here is what our protocols are going to be:

1. Gas stops are for gas only. I get out of the car, use a wipe on the gas handle, hand sanitize when I get back in.

2. Rest areas are for bathroom breaks. For our route, the doors are all electronic to get in the building. There are no doors to open to get into the bathroom - they have those open entrances. Go to the bathroom. Wash up. Then hand sanitize before we get into the car. We will wear face masks through the whole thing.

3. We are bringing our own lunch and eating in the car.

4. Once we get to the cabin, wife will hit the grocery store by herself the next day. We will bring dinner for the first night and pack as much of the basics as room allows. That will limit time in the grocery store.

5. This resort only has 12 cabins. It's pretty isolated. We may need to go into town one more time (wife - she just navigates grocery stores more efficiently than I do). 

6. Repeat process coming home. 

Sounds like a fun trip.

Most of this seems quite easy and reasonable.  Are you saying you are wearing masks in the car?  10 hours of mask wearing is gonna suck.

 

[Doug B]

Definitely agree with your broader point that we need more data to better understand transmission, but I recall reading somewhere that countries with high adoption rates of masks had significantly lower transmission rates. I'll see if I can dig up that data and post it here.

I have read the same -- one country that frequently gets credit for this is the Czech Republic. I think Austria, as well.

 

[ChiefD]

Sounds like a fun trip.

Most of this seems quite easy and reasonable.  Are you saying you are wearing masks in the car?  10 hours of mask wearing is gonna suck.

Sorry - not in the car. Just when we get out to use the bathroom. 

 

[zftcg]

I have read the same -- one country that frequently gets credit for this is the Czech Republic. I think Austria, as well.

Yes. Obviously, correlation <> causation, etc. etc., but it is certainly suggestive. I also saw speculation yesterday that, even within the US, cities in California with large Asian populations did better, because they had more direct knowledge of the SARS epidemic and adopted masks and other protective measures much earlier than in other parts of the country. Would be curious to see actual data on that.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

https://twitter.com/Pervaizistan/status/1260212287056621568?s=20

NEW: NYC now has 52 confirmed cases of multi-system inflammatory syndrome; *10 more children being evaluated *25 tested positive for coronavirus •22 positive for antibodies * 1 child has died. "They continue to grow, & that’s why we are really concerned,” Mayor de Blasio

NYC and the surronding region is seeing more cases in children:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/12/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html?type=styln-live-updates&label=new york&index=2#link-18e3f43a

This is highly concerning, both as a father of a 10 year old daughter in a county with one known fatality from this, and knowing what this could mean to the economy. Have been watching closely and hope to anything Gov. Lamont is right that this remains an extremely rare offshoot. Even then, if this picks up momentum, the Moms are going to freak out and I don't even want to consider all the ramifications of that. 

 

[shader]

This is highly concerning, both as a father of a 10 year old daughter in a county with one known fatality from this, and knowing what this could mean to the economy. Have been watching closely and hope to anything Gov. Lamont is right that this remains an extremely rare offshoot. Even then, if this picks up momentum, the Moms are going to freak out and I don't even want to consider all the ramifications of that. 

The media needs to be very careful with this one. 

 

[Moe.]

NYC and the surronding region is seeing more cases in children:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/12/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html?type=styln-live-updates&label=new york&index=2#link-18e3f43a

Ugh. We're on the fence about sending our 16-month-old back to daycare, we were leaning pretty heavily towards yes, but if my wife sees this it is over. 

 

[shader]

Ugh. We're on the fence about sending our 16-month-old back to daycare, we were leaning pretty heavily towards yes, but if my wife sees this it is over. 

I live in TN and my wife is flipping out about this one.  She's going to bolt the doors if this virus becomes more dangerous to kids.  I'm hoping this is just an outbreak in the NYC area that happens to coincide with covid.

 

[Doug B]

I live in TN and my wife is flipping out about this one.  She's going to bolt the doors if this virus becomes more dangerous to kids.  I'm hoping this is just an outbreak in the NYC area that happens to coincide with covid.

It means something that this kind of thing was apparently never mentioned (or even seen?) elsewhere in the world, doesn't it? Or has it been and no one has ever connected the dots?

 

[Jobber]

I live in TN and my wife is flipping out about this one.  She's going to bolt the doors if this virus becomes more dangerous to kids.  I'm hoping this is just an outbreak in the NYC area that happens to coincide with covid.

Agreed. I really hope this is something these kids picked up from the hospital, and not actually directly related to COVID.

 

[Sammy3469]

This is what the NYC DOE just sent out

https://mcusercontent.com/312a2b37a5401c093bd988771/files/60858b8d-b4a9-4ed9-b688-05ca9c4fce4c/Update_for_Families_PMIS_May_11_2020.pdf

 

[Capella]

Ugh. We're on the fence about sending our 16-month-old back to daycare, we were leaning pretty heavily towards yes, but if my wife sees this it is over. 

yea ours was to start preschool in august. Almost zero chance he goes. 

 

[shader]

Summary of Fauci's comments so far:

Definitely more than 80k deaths

We don't have it under control

Warns to be careful with children - concerned about thesyndrome in NYC

Late 2020/early 2021 when we get a vaccine candidate

 

[Sammy3469]

And just to further close the loop, it seems like there are a few cases in LA (that article also mentions the UK), Western Michigan, and Washington.  Apparently NYC is going back over the March/April Kawaski cases as well since whatever this is presents as Kawaski's even though they don't think it ultimately is.    Needless to say, NYC moms are concerned.

 

[Battersbox]

Kawasaki Disease from Medium (one guy's take)

https://medium.com/@tomdelmundo/multi-system-inflammatory-syndrome-is-not-a-new-covid-19-disease-its-probably-an-old-one-322163cff462

 

[shader]

Kawasaki Disease from Medium (one guy's take)

https://medium.com/@tomdelmundo/multi-system-inflammatory-syndrome-is-not-a-new-covid-19-disease-its-probably-an-old-one-322163cff462

It's a medium story, so there's very little chance of this being a good source of info.  I stopped reading at Fake News and fear-mongering.

Fauci said it's concerning.  It's not something to try and trivialize.  We all hope it's nothing, but to call it fear-mongering is just the worst.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

https://twitter.com/Pervaizistan/status/1260212287056621568?s=20

NEW: NYC now has 52 confirmed cases of multi-system inflammatory syndrome; *10 more children being evaluated *25 tested positive for coronavirus •22 positive for antibodies * 1 child has died. "They continue to grow, & that’s why we are really concerned,” Mayor de Blasio

I would have thought De Blasio would be glad the kids continue to grow......despite the illness......

 

[Battersbox]

It's a medium story, so there's very little chance of this being a good source of info.  I stopped reading at Fake News and fear-mongering.

Fauci said it's concerning.  It's not something to try and trivialize.  We all hope it's nothing, but to call it fear-mongering is just the worst.

Agree it's just some guy, but his source of info was the CDC.

 

[rcam]

Kawasaki Disease from Medium (one guy's take)

https://medium.com/@tomdelmundo/multi-system-inflammatory-syndrome-is-not-a-new-covid-19-disease-its-probably-an-old-one-322163cff462

Meh, not sure if there is a 1:1 correlation between COVID19 and KD but the fact that almost all the kid's are testing positive for COVID19 seems to imply that it is related. You wouldn't expect it to be nearly a 1:1 correlation if the two were actually unrelated. If anything, this may be show that KD is sometimes caused by a bad reaction to a coronavirus. Previously, no one was sure *what* caused the disease.

 

[Battersbox]

Meh, not sure if there is a 1:1 correlation between COVID19 and KD but the fact that almost all the kid's are testing positive for COVID19 seems to imply that it is related. You wouldn't expect it to be nearly a 1:1 correlation if the two were actually unrelated. If anything, this may be show that KD is sometimes caused by a bad reaction to a coronavirus. Previously, no one was sure *what* caused the disease.

I totally think that's likely. It's a reaction to a viral infection. We've learned that it's likely there have been millions of infections among children in the New York area. It naturally follows that you'd see an increase in these reactions. 

 

[-fish-]

Kawasaki Disease from Medium (one guy's take)

https://medium.com/@tomdelmundo/multi-system-inflammatory-syndrome-is-not-a-new-covid-19-disease-its-probably-an-old-one-322163cff462

KD may have a winter-spring seasonality, and community-wide outbreaks have been reported occasionally. Estimate an incidence of KD ranging from 9 to 19 per 100,000 children under 5 years of age. [emphasis added]

Note the last two sentences. This is spring. The age of the child that died in NYC was 5 years old. We have a community-wide outbreak of symptoms. While “rare”, in a population the size of NYC (3.4 million), that means you should expect to see 306–646 cases of KD in a typical year. Given that NYC has the highest number of COVID-19 cases in the country, there’s a good chance some kids who would ‘normally’ get KD might also get COVID-19.

His math assumes that all 3.4 million New Yorkers are children under 5.   (He takes 3.4 million, divides it by 100,000 and then multiplies it by 9 and 19 to get his range).  The information he cites (and highlights) is per 100,000 children under 5, not the entire population.   

According to the Citizen's Committee for Children in New York, the population of children 5 or under in New York in 2018 was 535,068.   If you use the right number, you'd expect about 45-95 cases per year not 306-646.  The numbers that he is trying to downplay are already at the high end of that range and rising.  

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

This is what the NYC DOE just sent out

https://mcusercontent.com/312a2b37a5401c093bd988771/files/60858b8d-b4a9-4ed9-b688-05ca9c4fce4c/Update_for_Families_PMIS_May_11_2020.pdf

I totally think that's likely. It's a reaction to a viral infection. We've learned that it's likely there have been millions of infections among children in the New York area. It naturally follows that you'd see an increase in these reactions. 

It's interesting that the NYC DOE announcement mentions that the syndrome is not contagious. They better hope so if they say it so factually. That would be a decent piece of news, but not a game-saver in itself.

 

[Biff84]

NY is just showing us how little we know about the virus. A few days ago it was the reports that a high percentage of patients had been staying at home. Then it was that the health care professionals were antibody positive at a lower rate than the general public. Now we are seeing kids come down with a disease possibly related to COVID.

Is NY an abnormality or a preview for the rest of the country? How is it spreading if they’re staying at home? How long is it staying in the body and are some of the cases due to a delay onset of symptoms? All these questions make it clear how little we know.

 

[Moe.]

It's interesting that the NYC DOE announcement mentions that the syndrome is not contagious. They better hope so if they say it so factually. That would be a decent piece of news, but not a game-saver in itself.

Kawasaki Disease it not thought to be contagious, which makes sense. It appears to be some sort of reaction by the body's immune system, and the cause has always been unknown. If covid is causing that reaction in some children, the reaction on its own would not have to be contagious to make this worrisome.

 

[zftcg]

Wife just came down very quickly with chills, a fever of 101.5, body aches, and nausea.  All pretty much at the same time, in only a few hrs.  Ideas?

Oh man, I’m sorry to hear that. I just went through this with my dad last month and I have some detailed suggestions, which I’ll try to write out when I’m not on my phone, but for now I’ll just say I’m sending good thoughts your wife’s way. Hope it’s not Covid and even if it is, hope she gets better soon. (Remember that even among high risk groups, the odds are still in your favor for a full recovery.)

Here's the longer post I promised. First of all, my experience was with my 79-year-old father with underlying health problems, so that may not track with your wife. Also, he lives on the other side of the state, so I was dealing with all of this remotely. And finally, this happened a month ago, so some practices may have changed in the interim. Nonetheless, here is some general advice I would offer:

1. Contact her primary care physician immediately (almost certainly via telehealth; they won't want to see a potential Covid patient in the office). This will help give you a general baseline of how seriously you need to take it. Depending on her condition and the current testing regimen in your state, the doctor may encourage her to get tested or they may not. At one level, it's obviously good to know, and if she tests positive for something else like influenza then you'll be able to eliminate Covid as a possibility. At another, it's kind of irrelevant: there is still a high rate of false negatives, so a negative test wouldn't tell you anything definitive. No matter what happens, it's best to proceed under the assumption that she is positive. Also, keep in mind that if she does get tested, it may take a few days to get the results anyway. In my dad's case, by the time we got his positive test result back he had already been admitted to the hospital.
   
2. Take her temperature frequently and track it so you have a record in case things escalate. It's preferable to use a thermometer that goes in the ear or on the forehead; I would definitely avoid an oral if you're the one taking her temp. If it's possible to get a pulse oximeter delivered quickly, I would recommend that as well. In my dad's case, his high fever (peaked at 103.9 by the time we called 911) was actually a blessing in disguise, because when the paramedics got there they discovered his oxygen level was also dangerously low even though he wasn't experiencing shortness of breath (this is apparently a thing, although we didn't know it at the time). The pulse-ox will give you one more data point to measure how seriously you need to take this.
   
3. Keep an eye out for all potential Covid symptoms, although apparently the way symptoms manifest can be very different from patient to patient. The dry cough does seem to be particularly common across many cases.
   
4. Treat with Tylenol. I think the early concerns about ibuprofen were overblown, but it still seems as though acetaminophen is the recommended med for fever reduction
   
5. It goes without saying that the two of you and anyone else in your household should quarantine themselves for 14 days, and you should notify anyone who's been exposed to her within the past 2-3 weeks that they may want to as well.
   
6. The question of whether to isolate her within your home is tricky, and I don't think there's one right answer. I know I would lean towards isolation, particularly because of indications that the strength of your exposure to a Covid-positive patient may contribute to the severity of your own subsequent case if you get it. But it is also true that if she has it you've already been exposed, so if there's a situation where you absolutely must interact with her for her own well-being -- for example, if she's unable to take her own temperature -- then you may just have to strap on a mask and gloves and do it. Anyway, I'm sure you don't need my permission to do whatever is necessary for your sick wife.
   

I hope she's already feeling better and that all this advice is irrelevant, at least for you. But if anyone has additional questions, feel free to post them here (or PM me) and I'll try to answer. It was a real eye-opening experience to go through, and I wouldn't wish it on anyone, but sadly, many others have experienced it or soon will.

Oh, and in case you've read this far and are wondering about my dad, he was in the ICU for 10 days, the first couple of which were very scary, but he was eventually discharged and is gradually recovering at home with my mom. 

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Kawasaki Disease it not thought to be contagious, which makes sense. It appears to be some sort of reaction by the body's immune system, and the cause has always been unknown. If covid is causing that reaction in some children, the reaction on its own would not have to be contagious to make this worrisome.

Agreed. Now it will depend on the rarity, severity, treatability, etc.

 

[jamny]

NY is just showing us how little we know about the virus. A few days ago it was the reports that a high percentage of patients had been staying at home. Then it was that the health care professionals were antibody positive at a lower rate than the general public. Now we are seeing kids come down with a disease possibly related to COVID.

Is NY an abnormality or a preview for the rest of the country? How is it spreading if they’re staying at home? How long is it staying in the body and are some of the cases due to a delay onset of symptoms? All these questions make it clear how little we know.

It doesn't mean they were staying in their houses, just that they weren't essential workers, at a retirement home, in prison, homeless, etc. If I had answered that survey, I would have put "staying at home" too but I go out at least once a day.

 

[Oracle]

The Lancet

above article( from 7 May) is a small study in U.K. of the kids who have had c19 and  then developed Kawasaki type symptoms.   Notice the  ethnicity.

 

[Statorama]

Agree it's just some guy, but his source of info was the CDC.

Related: Dr. Birx: "There is nothing from the CDC that I can trust"

 

[shader]

Yesterday and today are days 14 and 15 of the TN restrictions loosening.

After 7 straight days of new cases ranging from 122 to 345, we've had a 559 and a 567.  Right at the two week mark.  Right when you'd expect to see cases rise.  

 

[TheWinz]

Here's the longer post I promised. First of all, my experience was with my 79-year-old father with underlying health problems, so that may not track with your wife. Also, he lives on the other side of the state, so I was dealing with all of this remotely. And finally, this happened a month ago, so some practices may have changed in the interim. Nonetheless, here is some general advice I would offer:

1. Contact her primary care physician immediately (almost certainly via telehealth; they won't want to see a potential Covid patient in the office). This will help give you a general baseline of how seriously you need to take it. Depending on her condition and the current testing regimen in your state, the doctor may encourage her to get tested or they may not. At one level, it's obviously good to know, and if she tests positive for something else like influenza then you'll be able to eliminate Covid as a possibility. At another, it's kind of irrelevant: there is still a high rate of false negatives, so a negative test wouldn't tell you anything definitive. No matter what happens, it's best to proceed under the assumption that she is positive. Also, keep in mind that if she does get tested, it may take a few days to get the results anyway. In my dad's case, by the time we got his positive test result back he had already been admitted to the hospital.
   
2. Take her temperature frequently and track it so you have a record in case things escalate. It's preferable to use a thermometer that goes in the ear or on the forehead; I would definitely avoid an oral if you're the one taking her temp. If it's possible to get a pulse oximeter delivered quickly, I would recommend that as well. In my dad's case, his high fever (peaked at 103.9 by the time we called 911) was actually a blessing in disguise, because when the paramedics got there they discovered his oxygen level was also dangerously low even though he wasn't experiencing shortness of breath (this is apparently a thing, although we didn't know it at the time). The pulse-ox will give you one more data point to measure how seriously you need to take this.
   
3. Keep an eye out for all potential Covid symptoms, although apparently the way symptoms manifest can be very different from patient to patient. The dry cough does seem to be particularly common across many cases.
   
4. Treat with Tylenol. I think the early concerns about ibuprofen were overblown, but it still seems as though acetaminophen is the recommended med for fever reduction
   
5. It goes without saying that the two of you and anyone else in your household should quarantine themselves for 14 days, and you should notify anyone who's been exposed to her within the past 2-3 weeks that they may want to as well.
   
6. The question of whether to isolate her within your home is tricky, and I don't think there's one right answer. I know I would lean towards isolation, particularly because of indications that the strength of your exposure to a Covid-positive patient may contribute to the severity of your own subsequent case if you get it. But it is also true that if she has it you've already been exposed, so if there's a situation where you absolutely must interact with her for her own well-being -- for example, if she's unable to take her own temperature -- then you may just have to strap on a mask and gloves and do it. Anyway, I'm sure you don't need my permission to do whatever is necessary for your sick wife.
   

I hope she's already feeling better and that all this advice is irrelevant, at least for you. But if anyone has additional questions, feel free to post them here (or PM me) and I'll try to answer. It was a real eye-opening experience to go through, and I wouldn't wish it on anyone, but sadly, many others have experienced it or soon will.

Oh, and in case you've read this far and are wondering about my dad, he was in the ICU for 10 days, the first couple of which were very scary, but he was eventually discharged and is gradually recovering at home with my mom. 

Thank you so much for the detailed reply, and your concern.  As for my wife, she started feeling better almost as fast as it came on.  At 6am she was shaking with chills, had a fever of 101.5, threw up, and was achy all over.  No other symptoms whatsoever.  I was taking her temp every few hours, and it is now 99.4 (she runs a little hot, so this is very close to her normal).  She only threw up once, and her nausea was gone.  Her chills also completely disappeared.  She only has mild body aches now.  As for her pulse-ox, we have one of those little finger machines at home, and she is at 95-96%, which is also very normal for her.  Heart rate also normal.  Gave her 2 Motrin about an hour ago, and she is just relaxing in bed now, looking kind of bored.  Based on her quick "recovery", I have opted not to call her doctor, but will not hesitate to do so if anything flares back up.  Thanx again.

Great to hear dad is slowly recovering. 

 

[Penguin]

Meh, not sure if there is a 1:1 correlation between COVID19 and KD but the fact that almost all the kid's are testing positive for COVID19 seems to imply that it is related. You wouldn't expect it to be nearly a 1:1 correlation if the two were actually unrelated. If anything, this may be show that KD is sometimes caused by a bad reaction to a coronavirus. Previously, no one was sure *what* caused the disease.

That and "PMIS is a rare condition that is not contagious." If it's not COVID19 related then why the sudden outbreak if it's not contagious?

 

[Battersbox]

That and "PMIS is a rare condition that is not contagious." If it's not COVID19 related then why the sudden outbreak if it's not contagious?

I think it's suggested that it's a reaction to something which was contagious, rather than something which is contagious in its own right.