*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (19 Viewers)

[Flying Elvis]

No CDC data for you

Wow. Removing the data from the public eye will be another setback caused by the administration. Just astounding... yet not even remotely surprising. 

 

[beer 30]

No CDC data for you

Yea that won't turn into a political potato.

If we wrote the script on paper of how you can jack up a response to a pandemic I don't think we could have done it better than we are now.

 

[shader]

I know this is the current narrative (Europe did things right, USA did things wrong) and the #s certainly play that out but Europe did not wipe it out and they can easily have a resurgence due to the same reason we had one. Their young people are no different than our young people. Bars opened in Italy in early June and young people are flocking to bars/resorts in Spain and not wearing masks.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/majorca-travel-incidents-scli-intl/index.html

It's reality, not a narrative.  They stayed locked down far longer than the USA did.  We whined about how lockdowns weren't helping (while they were helping), ended our lockdowns early and refused to wear masks.

All that being said, as these countries get more lackadaisical, they will face the possibilities of second waves. I haven't looked at Spain's numbers in months but a quick look at their cases shows that cases are slowly beginning to rise again.  Could be better testing, I have no idea.  

Your point is not wrong, they could easily have a resurgence.  But currently, Europe has handled this far better than the USA, there's no question about that.

 

[shader]

Florida reports  +10,181 cases, 453 hospitalizations, 112 deaths.

 

[shader]

So yesterday Dallas had 20 deaths which is an all time high.  Tuesday usually is the highest death day for reporting issues, so that's expected.  However there was some good news.

• Lowest acute care cases since July 4th in hospital.
  
• Fewer positive cases each day in prior 7 days than the last week in all but one day.
  
• Unlike Houston the data has not been quite so sporadic as to suggest testing lags are present, although there is complaints about it from the county co.
  

Feel like momentum is there that 20 is the peak for this wave in Dallas Co.  Case counts might pick back up but like Houston the worst of this wave may be behind us.

Case counts in Houston are rising.

I'd be cautious using "new hospitalizations" as an indicator of whether an area is over the worst of things.  As ICU's fill up, many hospitals are literally unable to take in everyone that wants to come in, so they have to start prioritizing things.  Which means the new hospitalizations stat will plateau or slightly fall.

That may  not be happening in Houston, you probably have a better handle on it than me, but it's something to watch.

 

[moleculo]

I know this is the current narrative (Europe did things right, USA did things wrong) and the #s certainly play that out but Europe did not wipe it out and they can easily have a resurgence due to the same reason we had one. Their young people are no different than our young people. Bars opened in Italy in early June and young people are flocking to bars/resorts in Spain and not wearing masks.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/majorca-travel-incidents-scli-intl/index.html

They got their viral level down far enough that it significantly decreases the risk of a new spike. We never did that here and that’s a huge reason why there are spikes in so many states yet very few in Europe or Asia.

yup.  To flesh this out a bit further, @shadyridr mentioned Italy directly:

Italy has a population of 60M, maybe 10% less than California plus Texas. They have had less than 500 new cases every day since 6/5, and have been hovering between roughly 100 and 300 for the past couple of weeks.  Yesterday, they had 114 cases - a rate of 0.19 per 100k.  If you want to argue about testing, they have had less than 50 deaths a day since 6/20.  Italy peaked  in terms of cases per day March 21. 

Yesterday, California and Texas had combined 20,621 cases and 270 deaths.. a rate of 30.1 per 100k (160 times hire than Italy).  Further, CA and TX daily new infections continue to rise  - they have not yet peaked.  It's going to get worse.

I do think it's likely that Italy sees a resurgence.  It is true that young people there are the same as here.  However:

1. it will truly be a second peak, and Italy will not be caught off guard like they were in February.  When they re-open, their medical infrastructure will be able to deal with an increase.  When Italy has a resurgence of, say, 1000 new cases in a day, it would be instantly detectable and they could re-impose mitigation efforts. 
   
2. when you are dealing with 300 cases per day for a population of 60M, contact tracing is viable.  Let's assume a contact tracer could deal with 25 new cases per day.  A staff of 12 people could manage contact tracing  - very doable.  Texas and California would need 824 contact tracers.  It's difficult to think about how to manage an organization that size.
   

If we could get cases down to similar levels, I would fell a hell of a lot better about reopening schools, bars, sports, gyms, etc.

 

[moleculo]

It's reality, not a narrative.  They stayed locked down far longer than the USA did.  We whined about how lockdowns weren't helping (while they were helping), ended our lockdowns early and refused to wear masks.

All that being said, as these countries get more lackadaisical, they will face the possibilities of second waves. I haven't looked at Spain's numbers in months but a quick look at their cases shows that cases are slowly beginning to rise again.  Could be better testing, I have no idea.  

Your point is not wrong, they could easily have a resurgence.  But currently, Europe has handled this far better than the USA, there's no question about that.

I see the uptick with Spain too.  It will be intesting to see how they respond.  Do they lock down again?

 

[parasaurolophus]

Walmart requiring masks now.

Should provide some quality anti mask videos. 

 

[Flying Elvis]

"Tuesday was the first day since June 10 that Rhode Island reported more than 100 new positive cases. The R.I. Department of Health (RIDOH) announced 102 new people tested positive for the disease, while another 30 individuals retested positive." - article link

10 days out from 4th of July weekend and roughly 2 weeks out from Phase 3 openings. The uptick in cases is expected by anyone with a clue about how this works. However, with a relatively good handle on the situation, test/trace/isolate shouldn't be an issue. 

EDIT: Average age is a record low (38) in RI. - article link

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Just curious, how would we be out of this w/o a vaccine yet? It seems like whoever opens up, has a rise in cases, etc. 

So if we locked down everything until now, sure we'd have low cases, but what would be the strategy going forward as we wait possibly 6-9 mos for a vaccine?

Goal is to keep cases low. Don't need a full lockdown for this.

Strategy:

Individuals still acting like they are on shutdown, but with the ability to have exceptions: Get a haircut. Eat outside. Feel a bit more free.

But that trade-off comes with vigilant mitigation: wearing masks, staying physically far apart, washing hands, and as mentioned still staying home mostly.

Wear a mask outside. The CDC director said we can beat COVID-19 in 4-6 weeks by doing so. Today he said this. Baffling it takes so long to acknowledge.

Governments need to provide an over-abundance of testing, PPE in public places, contact tracing, and enforcement of mitigation in high risk businesses/settings.

Once the % positive rate is low, hospitalizations and fatalities are low, kids can get back to school. We should do this for them. Not to party. That seems to be a hangup.  

 

[shadyridr]

yup.  To flesh this out a bit further, @shadyridr mentioned Italy directly:

Italy has a population of 60M, maybe 10% less than California plus Texas. They have had less than 500 new cases every day since 6/5, and have been hovering between roughly 100 and 300 for the past couple of weeks.  Yesterday, they had 114 cases - a rate of 0.19 per 100k.  If you want to argue about testing, they have had less than 50 deaths a day since 6/20.  Italy peaked  in terms of cases per day March 21. 

Yesterday, California and Texas had combined 20,621 cases and 270 deaths.. a rate of 30.1 per 100k (160 times hire than Italy).  Further, CA and TX daily new infections continue to rise  - they have not yet peaked.  It's going to get worse.

I do think it's likely that Italy sees a resurgence.  It is true that young people there are the same as here.  However:

1. it will truly be a second peak, and Italy will not be caught off guard like they were in February.  When they re-open, their medical infrastructure will be able to deal with an increase.  When Italy has a resurgence of, say, 1000 new cases in a day, it would be instantly detectable and they could re-impose mitigation efforts. 
   
2. when you are dealing with 300 cases per day for a population of 60M, contact tracing is viable.  Let's assume a contact tracer could deal with 25 new cases per day.  A staff of 12 people could manage contact tracing  - very doable.  Texas and California would need 824 contact tracers.  It's difficult to think about how to manage an organization that size.
   

If we could get cases down to similar levels, I would fell a hell of a lot better about reopening schools, bars, sports, gyms, etc.

How many cases did California & Texas have when they opened up as compared to Italy?

 

[parasaurolophus]

Is there anything comparing hospitalization data to case data for more localized hospitalization rates? 

Meaning do we know if there are 200 positives in WI that it translates to the same hospitalization rates as say 200 positives in Montana? 

 

[culdeus]

Case counts in Houston are rising.

I'd be cautious using "new hospitalizations" as an indicator of whether an area is over the worst of things.  As ICU's fill up, many hospitals are literally unable to take in everyone that wants to come in, so they have to start prioritizing things.  Which means the new hospitalizations stat will plateau or slightly fall.

That may  not be happening in Houston, you probably have a better handle on it than me, but it's something to watch.

ICU bed usage and acute care is tracking a lot better right now than raw case counts to deaths. Raw hospitalization numbers are not great as turnover in non acute cases is high.

I haven't seen a situation where acute case load went down and deaths didn't track it yet.  I have a hard time seeing how Dallas goes north of 20/day in the next 4-6 weeks.  If it was to do so it would be next Tuesday.

 

[shadyridr]

How many cases did California & Texas have when they opened up as compared to Italy?

So I'll answer my own question, as I looked it up.

Stage 3 for CA (this is the risky stage) started around May 26. They were over 2000 new daily cases at the time.

Bars opened up for Italy June 6. They were under 200 new daily cases at the time.

Yep, we opened up way too early.

 

[culdeus]

Looking at Houston their Tuesday numbers look a lot like Dallas but they had a big case pop.  Their ICU bed usage is down, but not quite like Dallas.

I would say Houston has their worst Death day in front of them, likely next Tues

 

[moleculo]

How many cases did California & Texas have when they opened up as compared to Italy?

great question.  I used RT.live to tell me the date for re-opening for the two states.  RT. live and worldometer have different numbers for positive cases on those dates but the numbers are similar.  California was at ~2000 and Texas was ~1000 - 5.26 per 100k and 3.56 per 100k, respectively.  Again, Italy is at 0.19 per 100k today.  

California re-opened when their daily infection rate was 28x higher than Italy's is today.

 

[shader]

yup.  To flesh this out a bit further, @shadyridr mentioned Italy directly:

Italy has a population of 60M, maybe 10% less than California plus Texas. They have had less than 500 new cases every day since 6/5, and have been hovering between roughly 100 and 300 for the past couple of weeks.  Yesterday, they had 114 cases - a rate of 0.19 per 100k.  If you want to argue about testing, they have had less than 50 deaths a day since 6/20.  Italy peaked  in terms of cases per day March 21. 

Yesterday, California and Texas had combined 20,621 cases and 270 deaths.. a rate of 30.1 per 100k (160 times hire than Italy).  Further, CA and TX daily new infections continue to rise  - they have not yet peaked.  It's going to get worse.

I do think it's likely that Italy sees a resurgence.  It is true that young people there are the same as here.  However:

1. it will truly be a second peak, and Italy will not be caught off guard like they were in February.  When they re-open, their medical infrastructure will be able to deal with an increase.  When Italy has a resurgence of, say, 1000 new cases in a day, it would be instantly detectable and they could re-impose mitigation efforts. 
   
2. when you are dealing with 300 cases per day for a population of 60M, contact tracing is viable.  Let's assume a contact tracer could deal with 25 new cases per day.  A staff of 12 people could manage contact tracing  - very doable.  Texas and California would need 824 contact tracers.  It's difficult to think about how to manage an organization that size.
   

If we could get cases down to similar levels, I would fell a hell of a lot better about reopening schools, bars, sports, gyms, etc.

100% this.

It's why so many of us were annoyed at the early reopenings.  We were SO CLOSE in the South.  

 

[shader]

Looking at Houston their Tuesday numbers look a lot like Dallas but they had a big case pop.  Their ICU bed usage is down, but not quite like Dallas.

I would say Houston has their worst Death day in front of them, likely next Tues

uh...yeah for sure they do

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

great question.  I used RT.live to tell me the date for re-opening for the two states.  RT. live and worldometer have different numbers for positive cases on those dates but the numbers are similar.  California was at ~2000 and Texas was ~1000 - 5.26 per 100k and 3.56 per 100k, respectively.  Again, Italy is at 0.19 per 100k today.  

California re-opened when their daily infection rate was 28x higher than Italy's is today.

Re-opening too early has the same impact of not shutting down at all, unfortunately. It did buy time to allow doctors the chance to figure out how to better treat the disease. But as far as keeping numbers low, that's all gone now.  

This was mentioned many times. The number of days for shutting down to really crush the curve is around 77-84, not 42-45. It's been discussed ad nauseum in here.  

 

[moleculo]

100% this.

It's why so many of us were annoyed at the early reopenings.  We were SO CLOSE in the South.  

I felt like we were maybe 4 weeks away.  But, it became a race to the bottom.  As soon as one state got reckless and opened up, everyone else kind of had to.  

ETA: changed from 2 weeks to 4 weeks away, per @Grace Under Pressure's post above.

 

[shader]

I felt like we were maybe 2 weeks away.  But, it became a race to the bottom.  As soon as one state got reckless and opened up, everyone else kind of had to.  

I felt similar about Tennessee.  Felt we were 2-3 weeks away.  Our cases were headed down and they remained on a downward trajectory after the "reopening", but stopped around the 300/day mark, plateaued there for a month or so, slowly drifted up, and then began skyrocketing up.  Had we stay closed another 2-3 weeks, those cases would have gone to less than 100/day...which when combined with a mask mandate, could have virtually ended covid in our state for quite some time.

 

[moleculo]

Re-opening too early has the same impact of not shutting down at all, unfortunately. It did buy time to allow doctors the chance to figure out how to better treat the disease. But as far as keeping numbers low, that's all gone now.  

This was mentioned many times. The number of days for shutting down to really crush the curve is around 77-84, not 42-45. It's been discussed ad nauseum in here.  

we really did a great job of maximizing both economic hardship and deaths.  Really, amazing job everyone.

 

[moleculo]

I felt similar about Tennessee.  Felt we were 2-3 weeks away.  Our cases were headed down and they remained on a downward trajectory after the "reopening", but stopped around the 300/day mark, plateaued there for a month or so, slowly drifted up, and then began skyrocketing up.  Had we stay closed another 2-3 weeks, those cases would have gone to less than 100/day...which when combined with a mask mandate, could have virtually ended covid in our state for quite some time.

except, just like South Carolina, you guys share a border with Georgia.  As soon as GA opened up, you know as well as I do everyone was going to flock there to get haircuts, tattoos, and go bowling.  Tennessee kind of had to open up - "if Georgia can be open, why can't we?"

 

[shader]

except, just like South Carolina, you guys share a border with Georgia.  As soon as GA opened up, you know as well as I do everyone was going to flock there to get haircuts, tattoos, and go bowling.  Tennessee kind of had to open up - "if Georgia can be open, why can't we?"

Yeah and then one week after reopening all the "Georgia has been open a week and nothing has happened!!!" tweets and news articles came out, further driving the greed of surrounding states.

 

[parasaurolophus]

Yeah and then one week after reopening all the "Georgia has been open a week and nothing has happened!!!" tweets and news articles came out, further driving the greed of surrounding states.

What about in a state where the stay at home order was deemed invalid on May 13? And we had a continuous downward trend of hospitalizations until just this past 7 days where we had an increase of 21 hospitalizations but are still like 20% lower than when the supreme court decision came down. 

 

[Grahamburn]

Walmart requiring masks now.

Should provide some quality anti mask videos. 

Close every Wal-Mart and we'd be out of the woods in a few weeks.

 

[The Commish]

Yea that won't turn into a political potato.

If we wrote the script on paper of how you can jack up a response to a pandemic I don't think we could have done it better than we are now.

"turn into"? 

Despite what people say about you GB  , you have always been one of the more forgiving people I know on these boards and I appreciate you for that.

 

[Poke_4_Life]

Oklahoma governor Stitt is the first governor to test positive.  Now pictures are surfacing of him at Wal-Mart last weekend w/out a mask.  

 

[AAABatteries]

except, just like South Carolina, you guys share a border with Georgia.  As soon as GA opened up, you know as well as I do everyone was going to flock there to get haircuts, tattoos, and go bowling.  Tennessee kind of had to open up - "if Georgia can be open, why can't we?"

I think Brian Kemp's legacy will be that the led the charge of governors across the country to open up too soon.  Remember, this is the guy who said he didn't know people without symptoms can spread coronavirus.  And then there's this - Trump supported Kemp and then his staff convinced him to backtrack.  Unfortunately, Kemp didn't change his mind and here we are.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/politics/trump-pence-georgia-governor-brian-kemp/index.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/23/politics/brian-kemp-donald-trump-coronavirus/index.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/23/politics/donald-trump-brian-kemp-georgia/index.html

 

[Mr Anonymous]

It's reality, not a narrative.  They stayed locked down far longer than the USA did.

That's a big nope.

Czech Republic locked down on March 15th, almost the exact same time many states in the US did. They began lifting some restrictions and allowed some non essentials businesses to begin reopening on April 9th. Even more restrictions were lifted and more businesses cleared to open on April 20th. By April 27th even fitness centers were open. Many here tried to protest that it was too soon. It wasn't too soon because lockdowns aren't the key in stopping this thing. Masks are. And the Czech Republic, and other European nations which followed suit, benefited from a 100% mask usage rate. The only use for lockdowns is short term and to bring numbers under control. Masks are what actually make the problem go away.

For someone who spends so much time on this topic, you'd think you would have seen this by now.

 

[moleculo]

so I have been kicking around an idea - imagine a hypothetical virus that was (1) extremely contagious (2) deadly to certain small segments of the population (3) no effective mitigation - either nothing was done or anything that was done was completely ineffective.

This hypothetical virus would not spread in each city or state at the same time.  There would be local hot spots and flare ups.  It would race thru a local population until herd immunity was achieved, at which point it would die out.  It would follow Farrs law for local populations, dying out at roughly the same rate it grew.

However, in aggregate, the curve would not be bell shaped.  It would have lots of peaks and valleys, and if squished together, various peaks may approach what looks like a uniform distribution.  now, there would be times when various areas had peaks at the same time, and in this case, the peaks would stack on top of each other, and would show up as one really big peak.  In other words, the distribution of daily new cases might look like this or even this.

This scenario is roughly what the #justaflubro's have been championing all along.  How do we know if they are right?  In other words, how do we know mitigation is effective?

I have a couple ways to disprove:

1. other regions should follow the same polynomial distribution - the US isn't the only country to have multiple regions.  Germany, for instance, has 16 "states", yet their Daily New Cases is relatively bell shaped.  Canada has 10 provinces and a bell shape as well, although much flatter.
   
2. a double peak would not be possible if herd immunity was reached.  Louisiana certainly shows that, as does  Ohio.  So does Czechia
   

I'd like to say https://rt.live/ does a good job of this too, but I'm not so sure.  There seems to be a pretty clear trend of things getting worse after shelter ends, but the trend seems to start before that date...and, Rt typically was dropping before shelter starts, so I'm not 100% clear that this demonstrates the case.

By purely looking at the data, how can we tell that our mitigation efforts (lockdowns) were actually effective, and any improvements weren't caused by herd immunity?

H/T to  @Mr Anonymousfor drawing my attention to Czechia

 

[moleculo]

That's a big nope.

Czech Republic locked down on March 15th, almost the exact same time many states in the US did. They began lifting some restrictions and allowed some non essentials businesses to begin reopening on April 9th. Even more restrictions were lifted and more businesses cleared to open on April 20th. By April 27th even fitness centers were open. Many here tried to protest that it was too soon. It wasn't too soon because lockdowns aren't the key in stopping this thing. Masks are. And the Czech Republic, and other European nations which followed suit, benefited from a 100% mask usage rate. The only use for lockdowns is short term and to bring numbers under control. Masks are what actually make the problem go away.

For someone who spends so much time on this topic, you'd think you would have seen this by now.

does Czechia still have mask enforcement policy?  Because they had a second wave in late June.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

small sample size here, but intriguing nonetheless: Mystery as Argentine sailors infected with virus after 35 days at sea

 

[AAABatteries]

small sample size here, but intriguing nonetheless: Mystery as Argentine sailors infected with virus after 35 days at sea

The virus is coming from INSIDE THE BOAT!

 

[parasaurolophus]

H/T to  @Mr Anonymousfor drawing my attention to Czechia

Not sure what exactly you looked at, but since it came from Mr A I assume perhaps something to do with masks...

One comparison I have seen some of the early mask proponents make (jeremy howard for one) was a comparison of Czechia and Austria. 

Might be totally inapplicable for what you looked at, but figured a quick heads up didnt hurt. 

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

don't know if this one got posted, as it's just a Medium piece, but interesting thought points nonetheless

Covid-19 Case Counts Have Been Spiking for Weeks. Why Aren’t Deaths?

 

[parasaurolophus]

However, in aggregate, the curve would not be bell shaped.  It would have lots of peaks and valleys, and if squished together, various peaks may approach what looks like a uniform distribution.  now, there would be times when various areas had peaks at the same time, and in this case, the peaks would stack on top of each other, and would show up as one really big peak. 

If you could take a look at the hospitalization data for WI, I would be interested in some thoughts.

This site gives solid detail. The many peaks are very odd to me and the only "events" they really seem to match up to at all are the holidays. But even there it is weak, since it seems it came too close to memorial day and easter compared to 4th of july. 

 

[Andy Dufresne]

small sample size here, but intriguing nonetheless: Mystery as Argentine sailors infected with virus after 35 days at sea

A "negative" test was wrong. 

 

[moleculo]

If you could take a look at the hospitalization data for WI, I would be interested in some thoughts.

This site gives solid detail. The many peaks are very odd to me and the only "events" they really seem to match up to at all are the holidays. But even there it is weak, since it seems it came too close to memorial day and easter compared to 4th of july. 

looks like a double peak to me: first one towards end of May, second one happening right now.  I'd love to see more detailed charts - i.e. Madison or Green Bay alone.  It's possible one peak was for one local region and the second peak elsewhere.

 

[shader]

That's a big nope.

Czech Republic locked down on March 15th, almost the exact same time many states in the US did. They began lifting some restrictions and allowed some non essentials businesses to begin reopening on April 9th. Even more restrictions were lifted and more businesses cleared to open on April 20th. By April 27th even fitness centers were open. Many here tried to protest that it was too soon. It wasn't too soon because lockdowns aren't the key in stopping this thing. Masks are. And the Czech Republic, and other European nations which followed suit, benefited from a 100% mask usage rate. The only use for lockdowns is short term and to bring numbers under control. Masks are what actually make the problem go away.

For someone who spends so much time on this topic, you'd think you would have seen this by now.

First of all, I've been quite clear that I think masks should be a rule coming out of lockdown.  So we are in agreement there. 

If your argument is that Tennessee (or Georgia, pick your state) should have had a mask law in place when they reopened, I agree with you. 

There are a lot of highlighted assumptions in here which are your personal opinion, and which cannot be proven.

My personal opinion, right now, is that lockdowns + mask usage are both needed to stop this virus in an outbreak scenario.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

A "negative" test was wrong. 

Probably the most likely culprit, but they all tested negative. They also all quarantined 14 days. I guess it only really takes one to be wrong when they're all isolated together in what I assume are fairly close quarters. Also, I guess maybe someone could've come in contact with a vector between getting tested and boarding the boat. Also also, we don't know when they were tested vs when they got the results.

 

[moleculo]

Not sure what exactly you looked at, but since it came from Mr A I assume perhaps something to do with masks...

One comparison I have seen some of the early mask proponents make (jeremy howard for one) was a comparison of Czechia and Austria. 

Might be totally inapplicable for what you looked at, but figured a quick heads up didnt hurt. 

nah...he mentioned Chech republic and I looked at their graph.  Clear double peak.  Says to me that the virus was slowed down by mitigation efforts that when let up, allowed the virus to spread again.  That means mitigation efforts (masks, shut downs, social distancing, etc) can be effective.  I make no claims as to what works or what doesn't, it's more about "can the virus be contained at all?"

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Probably the most likely culprit, but they all tested negative. They also all quarantined 14 days. I guess it only really takes one to be wrong when they're all isolated together in what I assume are fairly close quarters. Also, I guess maybe someone could've come in contact with a vector between getting tested and boarding the boat. Also also, we don't know when they were tested vs when they got the results.

Well then...mermaids. 

 

[AAABatteries]

don't know if this one got posted, as it's just a Medium piece, but interesting thought points nonetheless

Covid-19 Case Counts Have Been Spiking for Weeks. Why Aren’t Deaths?

I skimmed it but seems like we've covered most of what he has to say:  younger average age of those testing positive, testing more people meaning we are testing more of the less severe cases and better treatments.  Did I miss any that he thinks is contributing?

Also - we need to get a better handle on the timing - I know there's the ongoing "joke" about 2 more weeks, 3 weeks, whatever but this article says 1-2 weeks.  I've seen 4-6 weeks.  That's a big discrepancy that makes most of his early point about why we aren't seeing spikes worthless - maybe the article will be better in 3 more weeks (joke intended).

 

[moleculo]

If you could take a look at the hospitalization data for WI, I would be interested in some thoughts.

This site gives solid detail. The many peaks are very odd to me and the only "events" they really seem to match up to at all are the holidays. But even there it is weak, since it seems it came too close to memorial day and easter compared to 4th of july. 

looks like a double peak to me: first one towards end of May, second one happening right now.  I'd love to see more detailed charts - i.e. Madison or Green Bay alone.  It's possible one peak was for one local region and the second peak elsewhere.

On second look, their site allows you to sort by region within Wisconsin.  If you look at North East (i.e. Green Bay and North), you can see a single spike in early May.  If you look at North West, (close to Minnesota), there was very little activity in early May but a good spike in early July.  If you combined these two, it might look like a double peak.

However, if you look at South East (Milwaukee),  you can see a double peak: late may and a second one in early July.  

Interesting.

 

[shader]

I skimmed it but seems like we've covered most of what he has to say:  younger average age of those testing positive, testing more people meaning we are testing more of the less severe cases and better treatments.  Did I miss any that he thinks is contributing?

Also - we need to get a better handle on the timing - I know there's the ongoing "joke" about 2 more weeks, 3 weeks, whatever but this article says 1-2 weeks.  I've seen 4-6 weeks.  That's a big discrepancy that makes most of his early point about why we aren't seeing spikes worthless - maybe the article will be better in 3 more weeks (joke intended).

I won't read an article that says "why aren't deaths spiking", when deaths are spiking.

The 2 weeks thing isn't a joke.  Some posters in here have made it a joke, but they are all long gone, or in the middle of moving the goalposts.  Cases started really rising about 3 weeks ago, and deaths started clearly rising about a week ago.  It's proceeding exactly as science tells us it should.  This is covid-19 101.  We've watched this happen all over the world for months.  There's zero mystery involved.  Deaths will continue to rise over the next two weeks, that's unavoidable.

What is avoidable is what happens 3-5 weeks from now.  That can be changed by quick action now.

 

[parasaurolophus]

nah...he mentioned Chech republic and I looked at their graph.  Clear double peak.  Says to me that the virus was slowed down by mitigation efforts that when let up, allowed the virus to spread again.  That means mitigation efforts (masks, shut downs, social distancing, etc) can be effective.  I make no claims as to what works or what doesn't, it's more about "can the virus be contained at all?"

The peak of czechia at the end of june seems to have come all from one company. They blanket tested all 3400 employees and 704 tested positive over several days. 

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

I skimmed it but seems like we've covered most of what he has to say:  younger average age of those testing positive, testing more people meaning we are testing more of the less severe cases and better treatments.  Did I miss any that he thinks is contributing?

Also - we need to get a better handle on the timing - I know there's the ongoing "joke" about 2 more weeks, 3 weeks, whatever but this article says 1-2 weeks.  I've seen 4-6 weeks.  That's a big discrepancy that makes most of his early point about why we aren't seeing spikes worthless - maybe the article will be better in 3 more weeks (joke intended).

Agreed. It's just difficult with reporting having little to no standardization.

And no nothing really new beyond the points you mentioned. Other than the possibility of a weakened virus, but that is pure speculation at this point. 

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

I won't read an article that says "why aren't deaths spiking", when deaths are spiking.

I think you are leaving off the implied "At the Same Rate" that they intended for the title there, gb. It's not a bad article. 

 

[AAABatteries]

I won't read an article that says "why aren't deaths spiking", when deaths are spiking.

The 2 weeks thing isn't a joke.  Some posters in here have made it a joke, but they are all long gone, or in the middle of moving the goalposts.  Cases started really rising about 3 weeks ago, and deaths started clearly rising about a week ago.  It's proceeding exactly as science tells us it should.  This is covid-19 101.  We've watched this happen all over the world for months.  There's zero mystery involved.  Deaths will continue to rise over the next two weeks, that's unavoidable.

What is avoidable is what happens 3-5 weeks from now.  That can be changed by quick action now.

Two things - I was talking about those making fun of you - not your comments about x weeks.  I do think there is a distinction between deaths spiking and rising.  I think the article reiterates what our group think has to say in here.  Sure, you can argue or object to the use of "spike" but the guy clearly states deaths are going up.