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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (18 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
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beer 30
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
I remember very early on in this thing, maybe late February on another message board ... the discussion got around to the importance of handwashing as a COVID mitigation measure.
So people in the conversation were all asserting they were going to start taking it seriously and ramping up handwashing ... how it was an easy thing to do, lots of bang for the buck, etc.
Then people started getting real about what "ramping up handwashing" really meant to them.
- "Yeah, I'm going to bump it up to washing my hands 4 or 5 times a day now. I'll basically be the Adrian Monk of handwashing, LOL!"
- "I used to go straight from changing my car's oil to fixing my kids lunch without wasting soap and water ... but heck -- if I can squeeze in an extra hand washing to fight COVID, that's what I'll do!"
- "I used to always wonder: 'Self, why do public bathrooms waste space for faucets and soap dispensers? You don't mess on your hands. What freak actually WASHES UP after using the john? For real? C'mon!' But now with COVID on the scene ... those faucets can be put to good use -- every OTHER trip to the head."
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
I’d rather just keep wearing a mask and working from home....forever.gianmarco said:
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Yep. This is spot on. The math hasn’t changed materially yet. I always expected to get vaccinated in June-July. Hoped for April-May, but knew that was a pipe dream.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
This is accurate - flu was way down in the Southern Hemisphere, during their winter. NPIs would be expected to decrease all respiratory tract infections, not just covid.
ETA I see it’s already been covered. No need to overthink it, as there are too many variables to explain exactly why flu has been reduced so much.
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Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Covid is way more contagious, and was widespread in many communities before NPIs were fully adopted (if they ever were.) Regular flu is not transmissible enough to overcome the decrease in Rt from masking/distancing/improved hand hygiene plus vaccine coverage, starting from low prevalence.Dr_Zaius said:
Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
I hadn't considered the aspect of initial disease prevalence. It still seems like a counterintuitively large difference, but I guess if you start with a significantly lower R0 (potentially further decreased by other measures) and then have a large percentage of the population vaccinated, it's really hard for the new season to get off the ground.
Any thoughts of the end of the 19-20 flu season? I thought I remembered seeing cases unusually low in the spring already, but I think they were still higher than they are now. I couldn't find the data for 2019-20 season with minimal poking around on the CDC website.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Initially, it was thought to be a worse than average flu season, almost certainly partially due to some ILIs from covid. But it tailed off and ended up being pretty average IIRC.
One other thing I just thought of: co-infection with respiratory viruses occurs, but is fairly unusual. That may be artifactual, as we don’t always check for other stuff after a diagnosis is made, but it also could be based on something physiologic, when a more virulent threat outcompetes a lesser one. In short, many of the people who might’ve been sick with flu may have contracted SARS-CoV-2 first.
Dezbelief
Footballguy
Are you on any lists anywhere? Find out everywhere in your area that is giving shots and get on every list. Tell each place you can be there in X minutes if a shot is going to be wasted. Each vial has 10 shots, has to be mixed with another solution before being given and all 10 shots have to be given within 4 hours. You will get a shot way ahead of your estimate.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I’m 1C in Ventura County. Hoping for late March. Then I start living fuller
Arizona rolled out stage 1B today (mainly over 75) and it had predictable technical issues. We finally got our vaccine in today to start vaccinating tomorrow. We have all of our appointments for this week set but it’s not many as they work us into it slowly.
I am now convinced that any rollout will cause massive headaches. We started taking names down last week. The list is just a contact list for us to give them the information to schedule an appointment once the appointments are setup. We’ve been very clear on that but the word of mouth has changed it to us signing people up to get the vaccine with the waitlist. The waitlist quickly grew to 500 people and I finally had to stop taking names because that’s all we were doing all day.
With the vaccine coming in and the scheduling setup we were finally able to share the scheduling link. We start to call people but can’t get very far because we’re getting tons of calls and walk-ins wanting to be added to the list and then arguing with us. Then everyone on the list start calling because it’s been a couple days and no one has called, which prevented us from calling people. I don’t know what the next few days will be like but I think actually giving the vaccine will be much easier than planning and organizing. Our scheduling site is actually pretty good but 75+ and technology don’t mix.
I am now convinced that any rollout will cause massive headaches. We started taking names down last week. The list is just a contact list for us to give them the information to schedule an appointment once the appointments are setup. We’ve been very clear on that but the word of mouth has changed it to us signing people up to get the vaccine with the waitlist. The waitlist quickly grew to 500 people and I finally had to stop taking names because that’s all we were doing all day.
With the vaccine coming in and the scheduling setup we were finally able to share the scheduling link. We start to call people but can’t get very far because we’re getting tons of calls and walk-ins wanting to be added to the list and then arguing with us. Then everyone on the list start calling because it’s been a couple days and no one has called, which prevented us from calling people. I don’t know what the next few days will be like but I think actually giving the vaccine will be much easier than planning and organizing. Our scheduling site is actually pretty good but 75+ and technology don’t mix.
beer 30
Footballguy
See this is what I don’t get, we set up temporary testing sites all over the place, set up makeshift tent hospitals in parking lots but we can’t figure out how to do the same for the shot? Doesn’t seem that hard to me, just requires a massive effort.
Pick any stadium, fill the field with tents, fill the parking lots with people, enlist the military and get it done. This slow roll stuff relying on folks like you to get it done isn’t going to get us there. No offense meant to you or others taking on this double duty but it’s not your primary job. You should be doing that, not playing secretary and giving out shots. With all the hype we had leading up to the vaccine I assumed this was going to be the plan for Operation Warp Speed. Doesn’t sound like we had any plan in place other than get a vaccine...ASAP.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Dezbelief
Footballguy
They are doing the stadium where the Cardinals play (State Farm). They are running it 24/7 actually. It was only announced a few days ago but I think it will be a highly effective site. I didn’t mean to be disparaging to the country, more that any way we rolled it out there were bound to be major issues with technology and frankly, human error. I’ve been pretty impressed with the actual operations of the vaccination sites and they have utilized the National Guard. I get my second shot today, so we’ll see how their setup works with a fuller schedule.
Dezbelief
Footballguy
Part of the required equipment for places giving the shot is a data logger. It takes and records temperature continously. One store ordered one months ago and hasn't been able to get one. I asked them yesterday about it and the owner said he canceled his order. After seeing what the two stores with a data logger in the area were going through. She said we don't have the staff to deal with that and get our regular work done too. If a shortage of data loggers had been recognized sooner the vaccine could have been available in every pharmacy.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
This is the stuff that drives me nuts about the approach we are taking in the US. This is logistics and planning 101. (Note: not criticizing the owner you’ve mentioned)
A central pandemic team led by the federal government should have figured all of this out months and months ago. We didn’t need to know the specifics of each vaccine to plan 90+% of this.
That’s likely a concern for a small independent pharmacy only. We got the data loggers and once they are installed, it’s just a set it and forget it. The vaccinations will be a lot of work but the data logging isn’t.
beer 30
Footballguy
And this is kinda what the military does, maybe not well, but certainly better than John Q. Public. I mean, mobilizing armies and all the accoutrement that goes along with it is more difficult than you think, we just do it well because we are invading countries willy nilly every decade or so.
My guess is that general public will be late summer for most. I think we will continue to see an overlap of the 2nd doses of a phase while the next phase starts. Something like 6-8 weeks between phases.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
I believe it requires a lot of planning and effort. It isn't particularly complex - this isn't like trying to solve cold fusion. It just requires deep planning, hard core logistics, etc. And yes, the military does it way better than, say, local governments and individual hospitals/health systems.
beer 30
Footballguy
Sure it does, and that's probably the most frustrating part. We can make arguments about our initial response to the virus, was it here? when was it here? should we have locked down? not locked down? I get all that because there was a lot of unknowns and while there is fault to go around I think a lot of people, particularly in the medical field have done super human work to stem the tide as best they can.
This, we've had at least 8 months to put together a rock solid plan of distribution for this. We all knew it was coming, just didn't know the exact "when" but how hard is it to sit down in a room with people a lot smarter than us and figure this out? You have 8 months, so if we started now, we need a plan of action, on my desk, no later than August. I feel like we coulda done that but here we are acting like this vaccine snuck up on us and we are just going to start loading up syringes and tossing them to the public from the back of a truck like passing out candy at a parade because we can't figure this out. I don't' get it.
Just to be clear, I'm not knocking any of you on the front lines trying to get this done. This is a shot at leadership and a lack of a plan for rollout. God bless you all trying to get this done with no help from the very people who have touted this miracle from day one.
worrierking
Footballguy
We are actually doing pretty well in comparison with other countries. I get the frustration but the US has administered roughly one third of all vaccines in the world. We are fifth in percentage of population vaccinated. Numbers are increasing at a solid pace and we will be at the next administration's goal of a million doses daily before they take office.
We made this complicated by trying to be fair. If we had just set up a few megasites in major cities, we could be way ahead of where we are in terms of total vaccines, but we decided that each state would get their fair share and within each state it would be distributed equitably. That increases all logistical issues, especially with the Pfizer vaccine and the storage requirements.
It's not been discussed much, but there has also been a problem with double storing second doses. The Feds were saving half of the vaccines they sent to the states, and many states then also saved half. This was partly because the Feds couldn't give them solid information about future vaccine numbers and the states feared they wouldn't have second doses available. Alex Azar is telling states not to hold back now. He says the future doses are predictible enough for using all available doses. https://apnews.com/article/us-news-coronavirus-pandemic-8e846e47cd71f39fed71dcd6700d729b
We made this complicated by trying to be fair. If we had just set up a few megasites in major cities, we could be way ahead of where we are in terms of total vaccines, but we decided that each state would get their fair share and within each state it would be distributed equitably. That increases all logistical issues, especially with the Pfizer vaccine and the storage requirements.
It's not been discussed much, but there has also been a problem with double storing second doses. The Feds were saving half of the vaccines they sent to the states, and many states then also saved half. This was partly because the Feds couldn't give them solid information about future vaccine numbers and the states feared they wouldn't have second doses available. Alex Azar is telling states not to hold back now. He says the future doses are predictible enough for using all available doses. https://apnews.com/article/us-news-coronavirus-pandemic-8e846e47cd71f39fed71dcd6700d729b
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
This is the only answer. I encourage everybody to read through some of the required plans that had to be submitted to the CDC from each state.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Yeah, perfect example is pharmacy staff including the immunizers. Some states including mine put them in 1A. In other states they are 1B or 1C. There’s a couple places where the pharmacies are giving the shots but aren’t eligible to receive them theirselves.
Right now CDC is putting out general guidelines, some states are using those to make their own guidelines and then counties break it down further.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
% of population vaccinated isn't a good metric to use, given that we hoovered up so many vaccines early on relative to the rest of the world. Of course we are 5th in % vaccinated -- we have the most money and thus the most vaccines. But are we efficiently distributing the massive number of vaccines we have available? Israel, while a small country, is showing how efficiently you can vaccinate people if you have a plan. (note: nearly 20% of people have received at least one does, per an article from Business Insider)
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Sure. A wrench. A need to adjust. But we literally waited until the last minute to even start formulating plans for distribution. It's insane.
Would you rather make a 10% adjustment to a plan at the last minute, or wait until the last minute to make 100% of the plan for the first time?
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Dezbelief
Footballguy
Just another example of big business getting bigger and squeezing out the little guys. She isn't concerned with setting up the data logger, there aren't any available for her independent pharmacy. The big chains have no problem getting data loggers for their stores. This is a conversation for another thread, but big business is squashing the entrepreneurial spirit that this country was founded upon.
worrierking
Footballguy
Israel is kicking butt, no doubt. Being small is an advantage in a huge undertaking like this. The fact that we have reserved a large number of vaccines isn't why we are doing big numbers, although it helps. Other countries have reserved more on a per capita basis and are vaccinating fewer people (Like Canada, which has reserved enough doses to vaccinate their entire population three times). The biggest reason for early success is early authorization. UK is ahead in part because they are approving vaccines faster than anyone else. They have already approved Oxford/Astrazeneca's vaccine, which we likely won't until April. The EU is slightly behind us in part because their approval has been slower.
Got my wife’s 99-year-old grandma her first shot on Sunday. Things are looking up finally. Moderna’s storage conditions aren’t very restrictive. Any basic freezer will do and then they’re good for 30 days in the fridge. Should be little problem getting that out to rural areas.
beer 30
Footballguy
Poppycock! I work in an industry that supplies temporary everything, including chillers that could easily accommodate the requirements for the Pfizer vaccine. Again, people do this #### for a living, the military does this stuff as exercises every year. We should have had a better plan.
You stop it with your sense and reasoning, GTFO here with that.
Capella
Footballguy
I’m sure we all know why the kickoff to this failed but I’m not trying to get a timeout. It’ll get better shortly.
SwampDawg
Footballguy
When they report doses are they saying the full two dose vaccination or just that many doses regardless if it was first or second ? To me the number fully vaccinated is more useful. I don't know if 1.5M means 750,000 are fully vaccinated or if 100,000 are fully vaccinated and 1.3M are half vaccinated.
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
I got my Pfizer 2nd dose last night. I think I am going to be a little nervous about immunity if I don't experience any symptoms.
I know they're not the same virus, but I never developed immunity to Varicella. My titers are still negative, even after having had chickenpox twice (once as a kid, and once more after getting the vaccine as an adult). Talked to an Infectious Disease doc at work and he said there's probably some funky anomaly in my immune system, but the testing would be expensive and long to try and figure out exactly what it is.
So, I guess I am hoping for chills and body aches tonight.
I know they're not the same virus, but I never developed immunity to Varicella. My titers are still negative, even after having had chickenpox twice (once as a kid, and once more after getting the vaccine as an adult). Talked to an Infectious Disease doc at work and he said there's probably some funky anomaly in my immune system, but the testing would be expensive and long to try and figure out exactly what it is.
So, I guess I am hoping for chills and body aches tonight.
Willy
Footballguy
There are 2 things about the J&J vaccine that are really good news. The storage requirement is one, though that is probably a bigger deal world-wide than in the US, the other is that it's a one dose only vaccine. The one and done seems like a much bigger deal as it simplifies the whole process and increases the number of people who will be covered per dose.
They used a similar mechanism to the Oxford vaccine, so hopefully it's at least as effective and doesn't suffer the testing anomalies.
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Doses in arms. It’ll be a combination of 2nd doses for 1A and 1st doses for 1B. Best way to look at it is just splitting it in half for how many people have been vaccinated unless they go more towards everyone getting a single dose and delaying the 2 dose.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Ha, I'm the same with regards to Varicella. I never had it as a kid, but I've been vaccinated a few times now and I've never had adequate titers. I was told the same by occ health that it's not worth it at this point to do any further testing.
FWIW, I got Covid (presumably last March), tested positive for antibodies in September after giving blood. 1st dose of the vaccine, had arm soreness and about 24 hrs of chills/aches and feeling crummy. Just got the 2nd dose on Saturday and the exact same reaction through Sunday. All better yesterday.
beer 30
Footballguy
worrierking
Footballguy
The Bloomberg Tracker lets you see both. Hover your mouse over the states and you'll see total and second doses.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distrbution/
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Doug B
Footballguy
I had thought that vaccinated people kind of sort of weren't supposed to experience any symptoms. That reactions of any kind were somehow, simultaneously, common and anamolous.
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
incidence of common side effects
I had to google, because I honestly didn't know how common it was. Anecdotally, almost everyone I talked to says they felt a little "crummy" afterwards. Fatigue, muscle aches, chills, etc.
I don't even know if having those symptoms is even an indicator that the vaccine is working, I certainly won't take it as an guarantee of immunity. But mentally, it'll reassure me that I got a good dose.
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