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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
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Penguin
Footballguy
It's actually 213. China only releases new case and death totals once per day, around 8:30pm EST. Lat night they reported 43 new deaths from Thursday that jumped the total to 213. So tonight around 8:30pm EST we will get their numbers from Friday.
Capella
Footballguy
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Those numbers are trash. The real number is in the many thousands. We’ll probably never know. We have a country that is willing to do everything and anything for their economy (child labor, counterfeiting, sweatshops, currency manipulation just to name a few). You think they will effectively shut down their economy for several weeks and quarantine their largest cities for a virus that has only caused a couple hundred deaths? Not a chance in hell that happens. The numbers they are claiming is a steaming pile of garbage and are intellectually dishonest. No country on the planet (and especially not that country) would be taking the measures that they are if the numbers that they are claiming are anywhere close to accurate.
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TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
Capella
Footballguy
Some White House guy (I know, I know) just said the risk to the American Public is low. While he could be/probably is outright lying I’ll wait to see it break out here before I worry about it. Either way we have some N37 masks and a deep freezer full of food in case things go south.
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joffer
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
Crap, trying to get someone out of there and they got to Beijing and AA cancelled the flight after he went thru the bio security.
Then went to HKG and had his HKG flight cancelled while in the air.
Next flight is AA 126 on Sunday. Odds that flight goes is really small imo. I honestly don't know what the backup plan is now.
Then went to HKG and had his HKG flight cancelled while in the air.
Next flight is AA 126 on Sunday. Odds that flight goes is really small imo. I honestly don't know what the backup plan is now.
culdeus
Footballguy
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
You cannot trust the words of any government when there are monetary interests and public fear involved. Our own government also said that when Iran launched ballistic missiles at a base in Iraq that there were no casualties or fatalities. Several weeks after—it became exposed that dozens of our men and women suffered injuries. Had they been upfront about an Iranian attack hurting our troops-our markets would have panicked thinking that there was a real chance that tensions could rise to another war in the Middle East. No government is immune from spinning things in a way that benefits them—ours included. Believe your own eyes and believe your own common sense before you believe the words of ANY government officials. The numbers that the Chinese are reporting are so disgustingly and obviously low that it’s insulting to anybody that has common sense.
joffer
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
I know. I totally agree with that but my eyes also tell me only 6 infected here with no deaths. Until that grows exponentially on our homeland I’m not worried.
culdeus
Footballguy
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fissure man
Footballguy
It’s a tough board these days man, they banned all the funny right out of this place.Again, I was going for the joke. I wasn't too concerned how factual I was.
Now it’s just you and me us.
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Tecumseh
Footballguy
Scoresman
Footballguy
####.
It's a bay area case which means he almost certainly flew into SFO. It says he returned last Friday the 24th where I was doing a site walk, at the International Terminal, in the early morning when most flights from Asia arrive.
culdeus
Footballguy
Do you have someone to delete your browser history?####.
It's a bay area case which means he almost certainly flew into SFO. It says he returned last Friday the 24th where I was doing a site walk, at the International Terminal, in the early morning when most flights from Asia arrive.
proteus126
Footballguy
Any clue as to why the math for "new" cases (especially "Suspected") doesn't work out? I calculate +2750 new (17988-15238) vice the +5019 new above.
The Confirmed Cases math seems closer to correct, +2099 (11791-9692) vs +2102 (reported "new").
The Severe, Dead, and Recovered all check out.
What's your link - I'd like to track the rates for analysis purposes. Thanks for posting the counts.
proteus126
Footballguy
Interestingly, the growth from 30-Jan to 31-Jan is on average about 20%. Suspected +18%, Confirmed +22%, Severe +18%, Dead +22%.
The Suspected and Confirmed growth rates have been pretty consistent to each other on any given day. Perhaps Suspected could be used as a proxy for Confirmed going forward, if lab testing capacity becomes an issue.
Date range, Suspected, Confirmed
27->28, +32%, +32%
28->29, +32%, +29%
29->30, +25%, +26%
30->31, +18%, +22%
The decline is probably indicative of a true reduction in the growth rate. However, each of the reported numbers has potential issues, over and above the fact that they are coming from an authoritarian regime with a long history of manipulating numbers. Confirmed case growth could be limited by laboratory testing capacity.
Deceased cases is such a lagging number, so figuring out mortality is a guessing game. If pressed, I'd divide today's total fatalities (259) by the number of Suspected cases from around 5 days ago (~4000?). ~6%. Ouch. Too early to have confidence in such a number at the moment. The virus should mutate and become less brutal over time.
Nice to see that the Recovered case number is about to pass the Deceased cases. I'd like to see it blow the number of deceased out of the water over the next week, indicating that the mortality is fairly low.
The Suspected and Confirmed growth rates have been pretty consistent to each other on any given day. Perhaps Suspected could be used as a proxy for Confirmed going forward, if lab testing capacity becomes an issue.
Date range, Suspected, Confirmed
27->28, +32%, +32%
28->29, +32%, +29%
29->30, +25%, +26%
30->31, +18%, +22%
The decline is probably indicative of a true reduction in the growth rate. However, each of the reported numbers has potential issues, over and above the fact that they are coming from an authoritarian regime with a long history of manipulating numbers. Confirmed case growth could be limited by laboratory testing capacity.
Deceased cases is such a lagging number, so figuring out mortality is a guessing game. If pressed, I'd divide today's total fatalities (259) by the number of Suspected cases from around 5 days ago (~4000?). ~6%. Ouch. Too early to have confidence in such a number at the moment. The virus should mutate and become less brutal over time.
Nice to see that the Recovered case number is about to pass the Deceased cases. I'd like to see it blow the number of deceased out of the water over the next week, indicating that the mortality is fairly low.
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I got the joke the first time. Just so you know that you're not crazy and we're not all TV-illiterate.TheIronSheik said:Again, I was going for the joke. I wasn't too concerned how factual I was.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Also the President of the United States was put on trial for abusing his office in an effort to rig an election. It kind of reinforces your point that we forget about that one.Scoresman said:
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
It seems a small sample size but there are a lot of obvious factors that make this far more noteworthy than the flu, namely the survival rate, and the potential Incubation for transmission. Factor in the newness and unprecedented in our lifetime quarantine and attempts at management and containment and you prefer the news ignore it?
culdeus
Footballguy
Apple Jack
Footballguy
The head of infectious diseases at NIH is saying asymptomatic transmission is occurring. That alone makes this significantly different than the flu. And there is a somewhat effective vaccine for the flu. No doubt the media eat it up, but this is absolutely newsworthy.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
How does someone get classified as “recovered”?bradyfan said:
Cold Dead Hands
Footballguy
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Apple Jack
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Look how seemingly reasonable people in here are panicking and lapping it up. Now imagine what the general public is like. Of course the media is going to run with it. They need the clicks.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
Slip and Falls kill far more people than spree shooters. Not sure why anyone is worried about spree shooters.
Capella
Footballguy
[icon]
Insoxicated
I guess we can spell it out for the slow folks...
last flu season about 40,000 people died from the flu. Yep. That's a lot more than cNoV. That was out of about 40 million infected.
The problem is, at the current kill rate, we only need 1.6 million People to catch nCoV to have that same death toll.
We're currently at 20,000 and it's increasing by about 20-25% per day.
Assuming that rate of spread continues, we'll hit that 1.6 Million in February (~20 days).
30 Days: 16M infected / 300k dead
40 days: 150M infected / 3M dead
50 days: 1.4B infected / 28M dead
That obviously assumes a continued rate of spread and kill rate. Both are far from certain.
Do I think people here should panic? Hell no.
I'm not sure I see it being a huge issue here as of yet.
Do I think saying it's not a big deal because the flu kills 40k people in a year? Yes, that's stupid as hell.. which is why I made the obviously absurd gun analogy.
We might get lucky.... or this might kill a million people or more. Either way, comparisons to the standard flu are asinine.
last flu season about 40,000 people died from the flu. Yep. That's a lot more than cNoV. That was out of about 40 million infected.
The problem is, at the current kill rate, we only need 1.6 million People to catch nCoV to have that same death toll.
We're currently at 20,000 and it's increasing by about 20-25% per day.
Assuming that rate of spread continues, we'll hit that 1.6 Million in February (~20 days).
30 Days: 16M infected / 300k dead
40 days: 150M infected / 3M dead
50 days: 1.4B infected / 28M dead
That obviously assumes a continued rate of spread and kill rate. Both are far from certain.
Do I think people here should panic? Hell no.
I'm not sure I see it being a huge issue here as of yet.
Do I think saying it's not a big deal because the flu kills 40k people in a year? Yes, that's stupid as hell.. which is why I made the obviously absurd gun analogy.
We might get lucky.... or this might kill a million people or more. Either way, comparisons to the standard flu are asinine.
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![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
WDIK2
Footballguy
EYLive
Footballguy
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
There is a disease that plagues rats and bats that has found its way into humans to the point that a country that puts economics ahead of everything has shut itself down for nearly a month. Bordering countries have closed their borders, and airlines from across the world are cancelling flights right and left. Our own government just implemented insane quarantine protocols for travelers coming from the region. The Chinese have lied about the disease every step of that way—and you are somehow going to believe that they are honest with the numbers they are releasing. I guarantee you that the disease has killed tens of thousands of people in China—but we’ll never hear about it. What’s disgusting is that people with common sense are being dismissive about a plague thats killing lots of people. I’m sorry that it might hurt the prices of some of your stocks—-but hoards of people dying in any country is not something to take lightly. I’m glad that its not over here—but that doesn’t make it any less news worthy.
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Capella
Footballguy
When have I ever mentioned the price of stocks? You literally just made that up.
As for taking it lightly, that’s in the context of the US. I understand it’s serious in China but I don’t live in China and can’t do anything to help them. I think the threat of it coming to North America is definitely being sensationalized.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
No I didn’t make it up. Here’s the link to your post in the stock thread.
https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/673466-stock-thread/?do=findComment&comment=22460636
fissure man
Footballguy
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