Doug B
Footballguy
I expect that he and others in the field will be revising their best guesses down with some frequency over the next year or so. More optimism than hard proof, of course.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
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Doug B
Footballguy
Having to leave the office now ... but there is a link to Ferguson's (with many others) research here in this thread. Icon posted a bunch of links in one post earlier today ... Ferguson's research is affiliated with Imperial College in London, UK. You can search that college name, with Ferguson's name and "coronavirus" and get a copy of the research.
H Jass
Footballguy
Yeah, maybe I’m being an optimist but IF the virus breaks out of contain and spreads all over there are 2 things I’m optimistic about here:
1) That quality of care rises substantially here, driving down mortality rates as people get access to better conditions fighting pneumonia.
2)Experience only helps. By the time it would get here, a game plan of how to fight it gets more and more complete. What anti-virals work, what warning signs to get on quickly, CDC is learning more and more with each case.
1) That quality of care rises substantially here, driving down mortality rates as people get access to better conditions fighting pneumonia.
2)Experience only helps. By the time it would get here, a game plan of how to fight it gets more and more complete. What anti-virals work, what warning signs to get on quickly, CDC is learning more and more with each case.
H Jass
Footballguy
***HotTakeAlert***
On another note, can China maybe learn from this and shut down these idiotic wet markets and crappy food handling of exotic animals? How many pandemics (every 10 years we get an Asian X Flu straight outta China) have to start there before they get a clue? And it isn’t a 3rd world or tons of people thing as these aren’t starting in India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Brazil. People need to not shy away from ‘cultural differences must be respected!!!’ and this stuff needs a proper shaming. Maybe the economic impact will finally do it to get their crap together.
—-Annoyed in America
On another note, can China maybe learn from this and shut down these idiotic wet markets and crappy food handling of exotic animals? How many pandemics (every 10 years we get an Asian X Flu straight outta China) have to start there before they get a clue? And it isn’t a 3rd world or tons of people thing as these aren’t starting in India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Brazil. People need to not shy away from ‘cultural differences must be respected!!!’ and this stuff needs a proper shaming. Maybe the economic impact will finally do it to get their crap together.
—-Annoyed in America
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jamny
Footballguy
Updated numbers from a week ago:
13 confirmed cases in the US
2 deaths outside of Mainland China
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
shader
Footballguy
Henry Ford
Footballguy
Penguin
Footballguy
Dragons
Delusions of Grandeur
It's apparently a change in reporting procedures, including cases that should have been included all along.
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Henry Ford
Footballguy
Dragons
Delusions of Grandeur
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Dragons
Delusions of Grandeur
http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/202002/t20200213_2025581.shtml
Link is bogged down, but some detail:
From 02:00 to 24:00 on February 12, 2020, Hubei Province newly added 14,840 new cases of pneumonia (including 13332 clinically diagnosed cases) , of which: 13436 cases in Wuhan, 37 cases in Huangshi, 26 cases in Shiyan, and 13 cases in Xiangyang. Cases, 26 in Yichang, 321 in Jingzhou, 231 in Jingmen, 204 in Ezhou, 123 in Xiaogan, 264 in Huanggang, 9 in Xianning, 31 in Suizhou, 26 in Enshi, 20 in Xiantao There were 69 cases in Tianmen City and 4 cases in Qianjiang City. There were 242 new deaths (including 135 clinically diagnosed cases) in the province , including: 216 in Wuhan, 3 in Huangshi, 1 in Xiangyang, 3 in Yichang, 2 in Jingzhou, 2 in Ezhou, and Xiaogan There were 4 cases in Huangshi City, 4 cases in Huanggang City, 1 case in Xianning City, 2 cases in Suizhou City, 1 case in Enshi Prefecture, and 3 cases in Xiantao City. 802 new hospital discharges (including 423 clinically diagnosed cases) , including: 538 in Wuhan, 17 in Huangshi, 11 in Shiyan, 6 in Xiangyang, 10 in Yichang, 22 in Jingzhou, and 11 in Jingmen 23 in Ezhou, 28 in Xiaogan, 89 in Huanggang, 19 in Xianning, 11 in Suizhou, 10 in Enshi, 5 in Xiantao, 1 in Tianmen, and 1 in Shennongjia Forest District.
Setting aside the newly added "clinically diagnosed cases", it looks like ~1500 new cases under the old method.
wonder if the change in counting method is to somewhat hide the spike in deaths, bring the death rate back down to ~2%.
Link is bogged down, but some detail:
From 02:00 to 24:00 on February 12, 2020, Hubei Province newly added 14,840 new cases of pneumonia (including 13332 clinically diagnosed cases) , of which: 13436 cases in Wuhan, 37 cases in Huangshi, 26 cases in Shiyan, and 13 cases in Xiangyang. Cases, 26 in Yichang, 321 in Jingzhou, 231 in Jingmen, 204 in Ezhou, 123 in Xiaogan, 264 in Huanggang, 9 in Xianning, 31 in Suizhou, 26 in Enshi, 20 in Xiantao There were 69 cases in Tianmen City and 4 cases in Qianjiang City. There were 242 new deaths (including 135 clinically diagnosed cases) in the province , including: 216 in Wuhan, 3 in Huangshi, 1 in Xiangyang, 3 in Yichang, 2 in Jingzhou, 2 in Ezhou, and Xiaogan There were 4 cases in Huangshi City, 4 cases in Huanggang City, 1 case in Xianning City, 2 cases in Suizhou City, 1 case in Enshi Prefecture, and 3 cases in Xiantao City. 802 new hospital discharges (including 423 clinically diagnosed cases) , including: 538 in Wuhan, 17 in Huangshi, 11 in Shiyan, 6 in Xiangyang, 10 in Yichang, 22 in Jingzhou, and 11 in Jingmen 23 in Ezhou, 28 in Xiaogan, 89 in Huanggang, 19 in Xianning, 11 in Suizhou, 10 in Enshi, 5 in Xiantao, 1 in Tianmen, and 1 in Shennongjia Forest District.
Setting aside the newly added "clinically diagnosed cases", it looks like ~1500 new cases under the old method.
wonder if the change in counting method is to somewhat hide the spike in deaths, bring the death rate back down to ~2%.
Penguin
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
Yeah I updated numbers above. Might make sense to split cruise ship numbers off. Feeling too lazy for that at the moment
Dragons
Delusions of Grandeur
themeanmachine
Footballguy
Seems like apples/oranges to me. MWC very global, most attendees from outside the US and many from China. SXSW very different demographically I assume.
i am at a very large trade show in Amsterdam right now (80,000+ attendees). Only one major vendor pulled out, plus about 50 small Chinese vendors no one’s ever heard of. Business as usual otherwise, plus lots of hand sanitizer and lots of posters encouraging hand washing.
krista4
Footballguy
Good god, the thread I was in before this was the Otis diet thread, and I forgot I'd clicked a new thread, and I thought, "shader, you are going in the wrong direction!" Whew.
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msommer
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
Had a talk with a friend yday who works for a major transportation company who said that migrant workers in China have not yet returned to work, in some cases as few as 10% showed up which is pretty bad news for manufacturing, transport and all supply chain related activities. Lots of "think tank" activities going on to try to game out potential future scenarios
msommer
Footballguy
Otis
Footballguy
Can someone explain to me how the stock market is NOT going to get totally crushed in the coming months? China is basically shut down, which affects nearly every single thing in the global supply chain. I imagine we’re getting to the end of depleted reserves for all sorts of supplies and goods. Once companies no longer have stuff to sell, the global economy takes a massive hit. Even just a few months seems like a big deal.
Am I missing something? I have friends dumping money into the stock market right now, but that seems totally nuts to me.
And BTW, I’m on the side of “we should take this thing seriously but it’s not a sky falling situation”, but I still think the fact of China shutting down will have major and widespread impacts.
Am I missing something? I have friends dumping money into the stock market right now, but that seems totally nuts to me.
And BTW, I’m on the side of “we should take this thing seriously but it’s not a sky falling situation”, but I still think the fact of China shutting down will have major and widespread impacts.
culdeus
Footballguy
Otis
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
You will get your new iphone this year. I can't say for sure you'll get your silk screened stringer.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I’ve said it before in the stock thread—our markets are primed to go boom or bust as our markets refuse to price in or react to risk. When we killed the Iranian general and they retaliated—the market hardly reacted even though tensions in the Middle East are crazy high. We have the second biggest economy on the planet effectively shutting itself down for what will be months—and our markets don’t give a crap. At some point our markets will start to care and this will catch up to us. When it happens —our interest rates are so low that the fed will be limited in what they can do. I pulled 10 percent of my stock investments out of the market a couple weeks ago and I don’t care that I missed out on some earnings. My portfolio has been doing great and I feel a lot more comfortable with some earnings on the sidelines. I firmly believe that even with the new numbers that the Chinese are releasing with the Coronavirus that the actual numbers are easily 10-20x that.
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culdeus
Footballguy
Put it this way. Your entire life you (otis) have brought down the GDP. Every step you take reduces the overall economy by your bloated expense accounts.
There are those that add value, build stuff, ship stuff, and give it to hard-ish working Americans that have expense accounts. Luckily there are more of thems than yous.
The thems are working and the yous arent'. Eventually the world needs people on expense accounts to go figure out what the thems should be doing, but we can mange a few weeks/months and the world won't stop.
msommer
Footballguy
Dude, Oats is a lawyer. Lawyers don't figure out what needs to be done. Leeches, the lot of 'em!
beer 30
Footballguy
North Korea 'executes trade official for visiting a public bath while he was in quarantine over coronavirus fears after returning from China'
This article. Beijing, along with 80 other cities so I would think, effectively, most of the country.
To counter that, I've heard rumors that workers will be going back to work in the next week or so to get the machine back up and running which seems like an arbitrarily
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Did you wake up today and immediately start to drink? Jk.. Lol. I’m not sure what your point is—but our markets are not up due to earnings—our valuations are extraordinarily stretched and the earnings multiples for many stock are at crazy high levels. The vast majority of the reason why are markets are doing so well is financial engineering and a news cycle that caters to the markets. Corporate tax cuts have led to an environment where companies can purchase their own stocks and keep their prices high. There will always be people that are willing to put their heads in the sand and choose to be naive/ignorant as long as the result is more $$$. That’s the predominant driver to why our markets are doing what they are—the earnings metrics don’t justify our levels at all. Anyhow—we should take this too the stock thread if we want to continue this discussion.
siffoin
Footballguy
fissure man
Footballguy
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Insoxicated
Otis
Footballguy
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