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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (12 Viewers)

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Courtjester said:
See this is how I look at it too. When there is an approaching snow storm here in Colorado, people go full on zombie apocalypse level shopping at Walmart.  I have been stepping up my buying over the past few weeks. This virus would kill me if I got it--being a type one diabetic, over 50 and with high blood pressure. I have had the flu twice in my life and both times I was hospitalized, so I get how fragile my health is. 

You can just imagine what a devastating impact a full shut down would do to this country. We are such a fast food crazed society--the economic damage by just those all being shut would be immeasurable.  
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Wife is type 1.  Trying to get a jump on supplies outside of insulin which I got done last week. Now   Have 8500 units of insulin on hand which is 6 months.  

 
Singapore has no new cases for first time this month.  

Also they are now contradicting some reports and saying this virus does not disperse well at RH >40%.  

If this is true it could explain Italy to some extent.   

Also puts humidifiers on prep lists. 

 
So lets say this thing puts us in lock down. Can I go in my backyard (assuming no one has gone back there, I'll lock all my gates) to grill or is this thing so airborne that nothing short of living inside a heppa filter will help?

 
glvsav37 said:
So lets say this thing puts us in lock down. Can I go in my backyard (assuming no one has gone back there, I'll lock all my gates) to grill or is this thing so airborne that nothing short of living inside a heppa filter will help?
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There's no evidence it can pass between two people wearing masks with a standoff of 1 meter.  

I would want to spend as much time in the sun as practical considering viruses don't care for UV much. 

 
[icon] said:
We've got 45 days of food / water / supplies prepared for power outage just in case. Considering upping that to 60 days this week. 
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My wife thinks this is insane, but I’ve got a backup plan mapped out where we relocate to our cabin in the north woods of Wisconsin.  We have a water source (a well), energy supply (months worth of wood for heating), an absurd amount of canned and frozen food.  We could easily spend 1-2 months there.

 
bradyfan said:
... on Worldometer.

  1. China: 76,940 (+652) confirmed, 2444 (+99) deaths
  2. Diamond Princess: 691 (+57) confirmed, 3 (+1) deaths
  3. South Korea: 602 (+166) confirmed, 6 (+4) deaths
  4. Italy: 157 (+78) confirmed, 3 (+1) deaths
  5. Japan: 146 (+12) confirmed, 1 death
  6. Singapore: 89 confirmed
  7. Hong Kong: 74 (+4) confirmed, 2 deaths
  8. Iran: 43 (+14) confirmed, 8 (+2) deaths
  9. Thailand: 35 confirmed
  10. U.S.: 35 confirmed
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Gotta love Iran. 18.5% of their reported cases have died ... but they report never having had a serious/critical case.

"One minute the guy had sniffles and was finishing up a 10K run ... the next minute the guy started hacking away, and then he keeled over and kicked the bucket all of the sudden! Yeah ... that's the ticket."

 
Alex P Keaton said:
My wife thinks this is insane, but I’ve got a backup plan mapped out where we relocate to our cabin in the north woods of Wisconsin.  We have a water source (a well), energy supply (months worth of wood for heating), an absurd amount of canned and frozen food.  We could easily spend 1-2 months there.
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Problem with this in my mind is there is no endpoint short of a vax.   We will have to learn to live with this to some extent and hope the summer burns it out. 

 
culdeus said:
Singapore has no new cases for first time this month.  

Also they are now contradicting some reports and saying this virus does not disperse well at Relative Humidity >40%.  

If this is true it could explain Italy to some extent.   

Also puts humidifiers on prep lists. 
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Does this tell us anything about the paucity of cases in South America and Sub-Sarahan Africa?

Not only Singapore, but Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia also stopped getting new cases.

 
bradyfan said:
If it is part of your plan then make sure you have enough gas in your car to get there.
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We have enough gas to get to my parents’ house (almost at all times), and my dad is paranoid enough that he always has a nearly full tank, which would get us to the cabin.  Good call though!

 
If humidity really makes that much of a difference, we're golden down here in Louisiana. Maybe let bad-off patients quarantine and recuperate down here?

 
Also -- if humidity is a mitigating factor ... then this thing must spread great in climate-controlled interior spaces.

 
Doug B said:
Does this tell us anything about the paucity of cases in South America and Sub-Sarahan Africa?

Not only Singapore, but Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia also stopped getting new cases.
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These one off reports need to be evaluated optimistically.   

I mean it isn't clear how you explain the cruise ship in that situation.  

 
culdeus said:
Singapore has no new cases for first time this month.  

Also they are now contradicting some reports and saying this virus does not disperse well at RH >40%.  

If this is true it could explain Italy to some extent.  

Also puts humidifiers on prep lists. 
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Culdeus, I will look for a link ... but meanwhile, can you find & post where you read this?

 
culdeus said:
These one off reports need to be evaluated optimistically.   

I mean it isn't clear how you explain the cruise ship in that situation.  
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Climate-controlled interior spaces. Maybe if the cruise ship folks were all sleeping in non-sealed pup tents on deck instead of relatively-sealed cabins ... maybe they'd have been better off. Not sure what the relative humidity offshore near Yokohoma is, though.

And of course, imagine the infection spread among the cruise ship crew -- tight kitchen areas, skinny back hallways, "secret passages" to get to different parts of the ship quickly, etc.

 
[icon] said:
Anyone who doesn't believe this is coming and will result in widespread quarantines is kidding themselves. Be prepared to shut in at your house for weeks. My guess is we are a week or two max from some pretty serious runs on stores/supplies. I hope I'm wrong. 
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There will definitely be runs on supplies. We’ve already seen that with masks. I doubt widespread quarantines will occur, but I guess it depends how you define that.

 
culdeus said:
they were citing this study https://europepmc.org/article/pmc/pmc2863430. Which deals with sarscov and reports out of Singapore that are not linked.  
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From Facility Executive magazine (2/11/2020). The study you linked (alternate link, same study) is cited within the article below.

Disclaimer 1: The company Condair, referenced below, sells indoor humidification equipment.

Disclaimer 2: The study on which a lot of this is based was published in March 2010. SARS and some other coronaviruses were tested, but not COVID-19. The assumption is that coronaviruses, as a class, are similarly sensitive to environmental conditions.

Indoor Humidification Can Reduce Coronavirus Transmission, Infection Risk

A study from Condair shows raising air humidity by humidification reduces the risk of virus spread in hospitals and other buildings at low-cost and without causing negative effects.

“The survival times of SARS coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and as infectious droplets in the air have been studied. An identical pattern has appeared repeatedly. Very low temperatures (tested at 6°C) and very low humidity (30%) enable viruses to survive for long periods on surfaces and in the air. Even at moderate temperatures of 20-30°C, there was a long survival time, but only when the air was dry. Very high temperatures (>30°C) render the coronaviruses inactive. This is why there have been repeated MERS epidemics on the Arabian Peninsula solely during the cooler winter months. It is assumed that the current Coronavirus will also exhibit a similar behavior in relation to humidity and temperature. The rate of transmission from human to human is influenced by indoor conditions,” explained Dr. Walter Hugentobler, FMH General Physician, and Dr. Stephanie Taylor, Harvard Medical School, Medical Advisors for Condair Group.

This means that conditions in homes and on public transport, where air is typically heated to 20 to 24 degrees for comfort, have resulting low relative humidity from approximately 20% to 40%. These are the ideal environmental conditions for SARS coronaviruses to survive on surfaces and in the air over a long period of time, and consequently for increased transmission via contact with contaminated surfaces and inhalation from the air.

“Air humidification acts in a proactive way to combat the spread of viruses by infected people, including so-called super spreaders, even before any symptoms appear or a diagnosis can be made. Additionally, the respiratory tract’s defenses are improved in all people due to the more efficient cleaning of the airways and enhanced immune defenses. Raising air humidity by humidification reduces the risk of virus spread in hospitals and other buildings at low-cost and without causing negative effects,” said Hugentobler.

Approximately 58% of SARS cases were acquired from hospital exposure, so humidification of healthcare facilities would be an especially effective intervention to reduce pneumonia and death rates from this new coronavirus strain.
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Ideally, the people quoted in this article wouldn't have a financial stake in humidification equipment. Still ... the original study had nothing to do with Condair ... so I'm hoping that the general gist of the high-humidity idea holds up.

 
Doug B said:
Also -- if humidity is a mitigating factor ... then this thing must spread great in climate-controlled interior spaces.
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Of which there are a lot in SE Asia...

ETA: But they generally like it cold and dry

 
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This isn’t going to mess with the NCAA tournament is it? If this does start to really mess stuff up here, what is the timeframe? I’ve been hearing “the next couple weeks” since mid January. 

 
More reading for those interested. At least some experts are still predicting heat & humidity to be limiting factors against COVID-19.

Can Coronavirus Be Crushed By Warmer Weather? (NPR, 2/20/2020)

Could warmer weather help contain the coronavirus? (Reuters, 2/20/2020)

EDIT: searching Google News using the terms "COVID-19, humidity" will turn up dozens of articles with dozens of experts basically saying the same thing. For what that's worth. I am hoping these experts are mostly right and that COVID-19 still acts like its other coronavirus 'siblings'.

...

Someone asked upthread about the Summer Olympics in Tokyo. Interestingly, the former Olympian and 2020 Olympic Village 'mayor' Saburo Kawabuchi is himself counting on heat and humidity to basically save the day for the Olympics:

[Kawabuchi], a former Olympian and the so-called mayor of the Olympic Village that will house 11,000 athletes and thousands more staff members, suggested Tokyo’s hot and humid summer would stop the virus.

“The biggest concern is the coronavirus and the infection,” he said, speaking in Japanese. “Currently we don’t have any clue when this issue will be resolved. Based on various pieces of information we receive, it seems that this virus is not as strong as the influenza virus. The virus is susceptible to humidity and heat. In Japan, we have the rainy season which could defeat the virus.”
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 Grain of salt, of course. Kawabuchi is a former soccer player and a hopeful advocate for the 2020 Summer Games, not an epidemiologist.

 
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Scoresman said:
This isn’t going to mess with the NCAA tournament is it? If this does start to really mess stuff up here, what is the timeframe? I’ve been hearing “the next couple weeks” since mid January. 
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I'm flying to Ottawa in 4 weeks for a Pearl Jam show... then riding a train to Quebec City and seeing a show there as well.
 

In Ottawa I got General Admission tickets down front, which will involve a lot of contact with people. 
 

Increasingly concerned the virus may derail that trip. Sadly trip insurance doesn't cover epedemics. 
 

 
Scoresman said:
Scientists aren’t running simulations for this type of thing?
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Experimentation, not simulation, but I would think there is full court press on investigating everything they can about this virus in China. It is and will continue to affect their economy.  Say what you will about undemocratic and authoritarian regimes, but when crisis hits, they can marshal resources like no other.

 
So. Anyone getting quinine tablets on Amazon?   BTW this is illegal.  Maybe.   Could be our colloidal silver for Corona. 

 
culdeus said:
Wife is type 1.  Trying to get a jump on supplies outside of insulin which I got done last week. Now   Have 8500 units of insulin on hand which is 6 months.  
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I have three bottles of each type (Humalog and Lantus) I use. I plan to get that  to five sometime next week when my insurance will pay for the next set of refils.. Insurance let me fill my one box of needles but I am just going to go pay cash value and get three more boxes. I have enough blood strips to last six months or so. 

We are scheduled to go to Vegas over spring break--not sure how good I feel about this trip with the number of people that will be there,  

 
Mr. Ham said:
Can answer what me (bit crazy) was able to get by my wife (sane.)

  • reasonable water storage presuming in early days can fill barrels/80 gallon bladder 
  • 25 pounds dried pinto beans 
  • 25 pounds dried rice 
  • extra 50 pounds dog food
  • extra 25 pounds cat food 
  • cooking stove and propane tank (unlikely to need)
  • 2 weeks of freeze dried camping meals I bought a few years back
  • 6 n95 masks if and only if need to venture into public 
  • Toilet paper 
In addition, we have about 30 pounds flour (I hand roll pasta and am stocked) and lots of Costco sized cereal, canned goods, dried pastas

What we have in freezers could last us a couple weeks on top of the above, and we’d start there

Based on the above, if we’re rationing only to what we need, we could get though 3 months, with everyone getting a little skinnier 

In addition, I bought seeds and seed starter kits to plant a ton of leafy greens, beets, leeks, beans, tomatoes, peppers, herbs, carrots, asparagus, potatoes, melons, artichokes, even a couple berry bushes. Have extra seeds if I felt like I needed to maximize yield. 

Produce won’t start to come in until April/May, but can safely assume we’d produce more yield than two adults and two children can eat throughout the Summer 

Strategy at that point would be zero interaction with the outside world, waiting for any outbreak to subside, drug stocks to replenish, civic plans to form for how to get next wave of supplies 

If things look like they’re getting bad, I’ll probably double the rice and beans supplies and get freeze dried fruits and vegetables. Beyond that, we’re set.
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holy moly 

 
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