The General
Footballguy
We got this today in a huge group meeting which we rarely have. I’m sure HR was directed to have this message put out.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
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Redwes25
Footballguy
What I have read is 5 percent of cases are severe and need ICU type care. With the flu that is like 0.1 percent of cases. So if outbreak is big then you could have a huge influx in cases which healthcare system has trouble handling. That is what happened in Wuhan.
The General
Footballguy
I had bought some of these right as this was starting to go down. Was gonna be flying and was for the first time going to be “plane seat wipe down guy”.
Well, I forgot I have them until I landed and was unpacking at hotel, but used them on subsequent flights am now going to treat my remaining stash like gold bullion.
Really disgusting how dark they turned wiping down the armrest, try, etc. Gross!
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JbizzleMan
Footballguy
My wife works for a large company, 100k+ worldwide. They have stopped all Asia territory travel as of a few weeks ago and just announced Italy yesterday.They also said prepare for more travel restrictions. If somebody absolutely has to go somewhere, they're now required to have a 14 day quarantine upon return.
The General
Footballguy
facook
Footballguy
Amazon, babe. Finally convinced my wife we need to (within reason) prep. Lysol wipes and vicks-infused Puffs tissues in bulk from Amazon on their way. I hit "SHIP IT" before she said yes.
H Jass
Footballguy
With nothing but scary, crappy news about this in the news, I’m posting this as maybe a slight glimmer?
Israel vaccine on way?
Israel vaccine on way?
CurlyNight
Footballguy
Ha! I just went to see the expiration dates on some canned stuff I got in 2018. Let's just say that I have a lot of canned stuff to eat by the end of the year. I'm not a big can food fan and bought a lot on 1 of those buy 1 progesso soup at regular price and get 3 cans free. Pretty unheard of. So hopefully the 80 degree weather we've been having will dramatically change so I can start souping it up.JoeSteeler said:Thanks to this thread I am all set now...
47 LARGE cans of dinty Moore beef stew
33 gallons of spring water
100 oz sanitizer
unfortunately no masks yet
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Ours is on in Orlando but handshake free. Encouraging elbow taps. Masks available for all who want them. Medical grade. Sanitizer everywhere, everything wiped down daily. Refunds for those registered from Asia, Italy etc
krista4
Footballguy
Won a free box of tissue in the Safeway Monopoly game today. Felt like I hit the jackpot.
I did actually buy a bunch of disinfecting wipes at Costco yesterday. Too many upcoming flights not to go ahead and be "that guy." I'm grossed out by what The General found, though.
culdeus
Footballguy
It's something when 5 studies set off to Wuhan to try and test cloroquinine treatments and they had to shut down the studies because there weren't enough patients.
Here's one such assuming I'm interpreting this right.
http://www.chictr.org.cn/showprojen.aspx?proj=49404
Here's one such assuming I'm interpreting this right.
http://www.chictr.org.cn/showprojen.aspx?proj=49404
Otis
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
facook
Footballguy
CurlyNight
Footballguy
That's what I thought about a cookie box that has never been opened. Worst case I thiught is it's very stale. Opened the box and smell of plastic permeated the room. Nasty. It was about a year after the best by date.
Redwes25
Footballguy
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate
shows 81 percent mild, 14 percent serious and 5 percent critical. About half of critical cases die (at least according to these Chinese study described in link).
Otis
Footballguy
You can probably already see the several bad assumptions in this analysis. But ok, so let’s assume 2.5% go to ICU and die. What’s that percentage for the flu?
The General
Footballguy
Yup. I like the air fist bump, dap in these situations. Touch nothing. Never been a Purell guy but have it in the bag now.
Completely pulling out of these huge shows that Vegas, Orlando, etc have pretty much every week is another level of "oh ####". Billions of dollars.
MTskibum
Footballguy
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-flu-h1n1-pandemic/swine-flu-infected-1-in-5-death-rate-low-study-shows-idUSBRE90O0T720130125
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/
Between .05 and .1% depending on the strain according to those two links.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Talked to someone who spends their whole day on this subject and they suggested that the actual mortality rate will eventually be accepted to be something between .5% and .75%. So a lot worse than the flu, but nowhere near the 2.5-3.0% we've been hearing.
The problem is in the denominator. Probably 60-80% of cases are resolved without ever being symptomatic or bad enough to be diagnosed formally.
Or not. Only time will tell for sure.
The problem is in the denominator. Probably 60-80% of cases are resolved without ever being symptomatic or bad enough to be diagnosed formally.
Or not. Only time will tell for sure.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Flu has mortality rate of 0.1 percent with about 1 percent of cases needing hospitalization. I don’t know what percentage of flu hospital cases needed critical/ICU care but clearly much less then 1 percent. Link to flu stuff before you ask for it: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
As I understand it, serious/critical cases with this new bug need hospitalization (just under 20 percent) with 5 percent needing critical/ICU care.
What I have also read is mortality rate is lower outside of Wuhan. Basically Wuhan’s rate is so high since healthcare system there got swamped with cases that needed critical care and they couldn’t care for everyone. As a result, patient outcomes in Wuhan deteriorated. I think that is a risk here as well if outbreak is big. If you have been to an ICU section of a hospital it is pretty clear they don’t have a ton of beds just hanging around. They are typically full especially in winter during flu season.
I hope we can contain the outbreak as I think risk to healthcare system is the real risk here (vs all the prepping stuff).
I also hope this post ages poorly and I look like an idiot in 3 months.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
shader
Footballguy
I hope your friend is right, but there’s no data to suggest that’s likely to be true. It’s literally impossible for someone to come up with those numbers using any data that’s out there. But hopefully their gut feeling will turn out to be accurate.
culdeus
Footballguy
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
No, for your parents it would be a 12-15% mortality rate.
You said on the previous page that you'd tell the elderly "oh well you lived a good life and something was going to get you Soon anyway".
So if your mother was hospitalized and knowing she had about a 1:6 shot of dying... would that be what you told her, and her grandchildren?
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jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Whether or not this post ages well is out of any of our control—but in general I agree with a lot of it. One of the scariest things about this virus is how contagious it is—because you can spread it without even knowing you are carrying it. Some expert epidemiologist mentioned something like that the average person that has the flu transmits it to 1.3-1.5 other people—where as each person that carries this virus is likely to pass it to 2.5-3 people. In the US—our hospitals are packed to the brim most of the time and especially during flu season. With this thing having the potential to spread literally twice as fast as the flu—the stress on our healthcare system could be absolutely brutal. We also do not know if this virus really has a “season”. We assume that it probably doesn’t like warm weather—but that certainly hasn’t been 100% established yet (at least not to my knowledge).
Doug B
Footballguy
No, not thinking about the immediate term with procuring food and supplies.
Looking down the road some distance. Thinking about the potential absence of a societal “all clear” — the proposition that some level of COVID infection in the population is now a permanent condition to which humanity has to adapt.
It might make more sense if I make clear that I don’t believe a vaccine is coming. The track record of vaccine development for coronaviruses has been especially discouraging. I do believe that antivirals show promise — a Tamiflu for COVID can happen. Just not sure if it will be before COVID has run a several-year course through billions of people.
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Insoxicated
So you're saying in your magic scenario we are somehow worse off because we are now exactly where we would be if we didn't set aside a month or two of food?
Have you been drinking?
Redwes25
Footballguy
In link I posted above if you cover China excluding Wuhan area rate is like 0.5 percent. So I don’t think that is so unrealistic.
Doug B
Footballguy
On top of that, health-care capacity is not static — it can be increased dramatically especially for a focused, specific illness. The trick is that you don’t need huge architectural edifices to treat people. Field hospitals can be pressed into service as needed with some portion of non-professional staff.
No, it won’t be ideal. There will be no frills, it will be less comfortable for all involved, and regrettably ... some people will fall through the cracks. But you don’t concede 1,000 deaths in advance because you doubt you can give 100 patients near-ideal care.
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jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I would personally say that it’s safe to assume that this thing is already a pandemic. If there was enough test kits in the planet to actually test around the world—my guess is that the results would show that this thing is pretty much all over the place. At this point—I think the question is—how can we and the rest of the world attempt to minimize the spread and slow it down to controllable levels? I said it in the stock thread—some medical expert on cnbc quoted something like “don’t confuse the absence of evidence as being evidence of absence”.
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shader
Footballguy
I don’t know why that distinction is there...but I also don’t know why anyone would exclude Wuhan. .5% seems wildly optimistic to me, but I hope to be wrong.
Doug B
Footballguy
Grimly ... we have no control whatsoever on when Mom - or any of us - goes. I understand doing what you feel you can. It’s just that at some point, it’s out of our hands.
shader
Footballguy
Assuming that this thing is “everywhere” seems a dangerous game to play. At some point we have to trust the numbers. Thus far the numbers coming in from across the world (outside of China) are increasing daily in a pattern that hasn’t varied much over the past 3 weeks.
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Insoxicated
Standard Flu: 0.015% (14.3 per 100k)
COVID-19: 2.5% (in above scenario)
Assuming 60% of Americans get it (bold assumption by Harvard guy) then deaths would be:
Joe Flu: 27,000 Dead
COVID19: 3.6 Million Dead
Good point, GB. I didn't realize they WERE Pretty much the same thing.
Not sure what I was thinking.
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Doug B
Footballguy
I’m very skeptical. If this pans out, it will be the first working vaccine ever developed against any coronavirus. It would basically be the Apollo 11 of virology.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Have we just been taking in flights from South Korea? Is there any ban in place? If not, we’ve got a ton of cases already.
Doug B
Footballguy
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Its on every continent outside of Antarctica. Sure—it might not be on every street corner in every city—-but when I say it’s “everywhere”—I mean virtually every country will have some exposure to it. There is a dude that studies travel (like volume of travel) and he basically did the math and estimated that there were approximately 17 million trips to and from mainland china between the time this virus originated and the time they implemented travel restrictions. He estimated that 5-6 million of those trips were domestic—people traveling from mainland china to other areas of china. That leaves approximately 11-12 million trips where people came to and left china from different places in the world before the restrictions came into play. I assure you that while many of those travelers may have come from similar parts of the world—that with that kind of volume—this thing is not just floating around a couple dozen countries. I hope I’m wrong—but thinking otherwise would just not be mathematically probable in my opinion. Until accurate test kits become widely available all over the place—I’m not sure how reliable any of the numbers are. Heck—here in California—doctors weren’t allowed to test for it unless somebody traveled to a high risk area—and a patient that hasn’t traveled just got confirmed with having it.
Doug B
Footballguy
This assumption is based on observation of COVID’s inroads into SE Asia. It’s hypothesized that warm and humid air limits the virus’ spread.
If all goes as planned, the vaccine could be ready within a few weeks and available in 90 days (after Iran is decimated).
Doug B
Footballguy
Not at all. You’re bringing up the “setting aside food” stuff, and that’s not at issue.
”Magic scenario”? Of course I could well be wrong, but I don’t think I’ve proposed anything unrealistic. I just don’t know how one gets to the point where one feels the coast is clear, and pre-COVID life can resume.
Doug B
Footballguy
Because that area was caught completely flat-footed by an illness that presented like something familiar (flu, colds, etc.) and that had been spreading asymptomatically. Had the Wuhan-area health system known what they were dealing with from Day 1, far better outcomes could have been realized.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Not all infections (viral or otherwise) are the same. Some evade the immune system better than others, and immunity tends to wane with time. In addition, differences in the host’s immune system impact the likelihood of reinfection.Doug B said:
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Hospital admin maybe, but not clinicians or staff. Also, how are people being ripped off by the pharmaceutical industry wrt COVID-19?shader said:
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
ICU care for severe COVID cases might include mechanical ventilation, vasopressor medications to maintain blood pressure, ECMO (basically a heart-lung bypass machine) and dialysis. But probably more importantly, 1:1. nursing care, which already is in short supply in larger hospitals in winter.msommer said:
ETA And you’d ideally want private, airborne isolation rooms for all these patients.
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Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Your points are fairly accurate, but I don’t think airport interactions in any way approximate those experienced by healthcare providers. FWIW, I flew domestically last week, and will do so again in 3 weeks. I didn’t wear a mask in the airport before, and don’t plan on doing so next month. In contrast, I’ve been wearing masks with most (not all) patient encounters.[icon] said:
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