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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (20 Viewers)

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TheDirtyWord said:
Doug B said:
I'd go so far to say the number of infected in the U.S. at the end of February had already nudged over that 250,000 number. That's total speculation with no evidence. But I do think that after a few years ... a lot of the things we "know for sure" about COVID right now will be proven false, especially regarding the mathematical modeling.
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That's low.  I think we could be at 250k reported cases in the US by the end of the month.
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I meant "over 250,000 infections on February 29, 2020." Meant three weeks ago we were over 250,000.

 
I woke up with 99.9 fever yesterday but felt fine all day. No other symptoms. Felt very slight tightness in chest at night time. Woke up generally fine. No symptoms. Still a little off but id say im 95% instead of 100%. I've been with my son all day making him breakfast dinner etc doing hw with him. I don't know what I have and probably too late to isolate. If it wasn't for CV I wouldn't think anything of it. 

 
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Apple Jack said:
The business owner is defiantly disregarding the mandate. They're just going to tell some passerby to mind their own business.
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Who are you reporting it to and what are they going to do?  Have there been consequences handed out with these shutter at home mandates?

 
tonydead said:
What's reporting it going to accomplish?  If you feel so compelled what wrong with trying to talk to these people?
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IMO, if they didn't feel it was worth postponing the class, they certainly would not have listened to someone walking in off the street and asking them to put things off. Like I said, I would never even have considered doing anything in the past and was just thinking out loud that maybe we collectively should start trying to speak up if we want things to work out as best they can. I suppose the way to address that would be to post about it on social media (which I don't use), but the overall point was should we all become more watchdogs or not.

As a side note, in communicating with a few locals, some have shifted from "it's a big exaggeration" to "everyone's already been exposed," so they still aren't changing their ways. I get that not everyone is a conformist. Maybe enough people will take things seriously that the overall efforts of the many will counteract the (hopefully) small percentage of people that don't care to change their behavior.

 
Anarchy99 said:
IMO, if they didn't feel it was worth postponing the class, they certainly would not have listened to someone walking in off the street and asking them to put things off. Like I said, I would never even have considered doing anything in the past and was just thinking out loud that maybe we collectively should start trying to speak up if we want things to work out as best they can. I suppose the way to address that would be to post about it on social media (which I don't use), but the overall point was should we all become more watchdogs or not.

As a side note, in communicating with a few locals, some have shifted from "it's a big exaggeration" to "everyone's already been exposed," so they still aren't changing their ways. I get that not everyone is a conformist. Maybe enough people will take things seriously that the overall efforts of the many will counteract the (hopefully) small percentage of people that don't care to change their behavior.
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I didn't realize they were in class.  I pictured them sitting on the ball field or something.  My bad.

 
tamales said:
I woke up with 99.9 fever yesterday but felt fine all day. No other symptoms. Felt very slight tightness in chest at night time. Woke up generally fine. No symptoms. Still a little off but id say im 95% instead of 100%. I've been with my son all day making him breakfast dinner etc doing hw with him. I don't know what I have and probably too late to isolate. If it wasn't for CV I wouldn't think anything of it. 
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Good luck and wish you and your family are safe and healthy. Just a word of warning as someone else posted an article from a doctor who has recovered that at this stage we should just assume any cold is Covid since symptons are so similar early on. 
 

ETA - here is article https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/2873342001

 
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beer 302 said:
Not bagging on you at all but 3 weeks ago, you weren't exactly on board with all the stuff being said in this thread. Most all of it has proven out. I don't think it's extreme given the nature of the virus and how it spreads. Is it different than our normal? Absolutely! But our new normal for the foreseeable future is something none of us (other than ham & icon) would have imagined 2 months ago.

Stopped by our local Harris Teeter in Fort Mill, SC last night for banana's & sour cream. Store was picked cleaned. I grabbed the last little container of sour cream they had, no banana's  :(
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Produce gets picked over quick. They put produce out first thing in the ams. If you need produce, go in the ams.

 
Redwes25 said:
Good luck and wish you and your family are safe and healthy. Just a word of warning as someone else posted an article from a doctor who has recovered that at this stage we should just assume any cold is Covid since symptons are so similar early on. 
 

ETA - here is article https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/2873342001
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But only slight fever and no other symptoms yesterday this felt like even less than a cold. 

 
tonydead said:
If so, with the latest guesses at mortality rate (that I've heard) we should have 2,500 deaths and we have less than 250 reported.  
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Don't forget that some people died without ever knowing if they had COVID or not. Some posthumous testing has been done, but not a whole lot.

EDIT: Also, mortality rate is not a function of COVID, it is a function of the available healthcare response. That's a big reason I don't really buy into taking the raw number of known COVID deaths today and working backwards to "presumed number of cases on date X". The underlying numbers aren't anywhere near firm enough.

 
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rick6668 said:
Some goods news

Local paint store placed an order in for 6,400 N95 masks 3 weeks ago.  The whole pallet arrived.  This was an 8 year supply for his company.  Guy donated a small amount to Foodlink who is distributing food to the local community, The rest to the local Hospital.

Guy could have sold them for $20 a piece.

https://13wham.com/news/local/victor-paint-store-donates-6000-n95-masks-for-cornavirus-use
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Add a zero to the end of that 20. 
 

And yes, great for him. Awesome. 

 
Redwes25 said:
Good luck and wish you and your family are safe and healthy. Just a word of warning as someone else posted an article from a doctor who has recovered that at this stage we should just assume any cold is Covid since symptons are so similar early on. 
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This is a downer -- I had been assuming that common-cold onset symptoms were very different from COVID onset symptoms.

Is it still thought that an onset symptom of "runny nose" or "stuffy nose" equals "pretty much for sure not COVID"? Or do we** no longer think that? A few weeks ago, it has seemed that runny/stuffy nose was a common symptom of those getting over a COVID infection, after the worst of it had past.
 

** "we" meaning "best scientific info we have right this second".

 
Doug B said:
Don't forget that some people died without ever knowing if they had COVID or not. Some posthumous testing has been done, but not a whole lot.

EDIT: Also, mortality rate is not a function of COVID, it is a function of the available healthcare response. That's a big reason I don't really buy into taking the raw number of known COVID deaths today and working backwards to "presumed number of cases on date X". The underlying numbers aren't anywhere near firm enough.
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Right, I qualified the posthumous stuff in one of my posts above, we should know better now and going forward.  Agree with healthcare response.  You said 3 weeks ago, the numbers should have corrected themselves by now and at least put us on the same magnitude.  The numbers show a mortality rate more in line with the regular flu.

 
tonydead said:
Doug B said:
I meant "over 250,000 infections on February 29, 2020." Meant three weeks ago we were over 250,000.
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If so, with the latest guesses at mortality rate (that I've heard) we should have 2,500 deaths and we have less than 250 reported.  
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As I mentioned the last time you tried to make this bogus argument, a lot of people that are currently infected are going to die, they just haven't died yet.  I think the death rate is still around 50% if we only look at confirmed cases that have either 1) died or 2) recovered. You can't assume that all of the living confirmed cases are going to recover. Stop making this terrible argument, it is seriously flawed.

 
tonydead said:
Right, I qualified the posthumous stuff in one of my posts above, we should know better now and going forward.  Agree with healthcare response.  You said 3 weeks ago, the numbers should have corrected themselves by now and at least put us on the same magnitude.  The numbers show a mortality rate more in line with the regular flu.
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Only as long as local healthcare systems can hold up. I think you have to decouple "mortality rate" from "specific disease" right now.

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
As I mentioned the last time you tried to make this bogus argument, a lot of people that are currently infected are going to die, they just haven't died yet.  I think the death rate is still around 50% if we only look at confirmed cases that have either 1) died or 2) recovered. You can't assume that all of the living confirmed cases are going to recover. Stop making this terrible argument, it is seriously flawed.
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(addressing the house, not fatguyinalittlecoat)

A focus on mortality rate is wrong, anyway. Focus on hospitalizations, and strains on local healthcare systems across the country.

 
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And seriously folks, if there is ever a time to err on the side of caution, it is in the case of a ####### pandemic. If it turns out that the mortality rate is lower than expected, great. All we lost was some commuting to work and workign for the man and some lack of hanging out with friends. 

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
As I mentioned the last time you tried to make this bogus argument, a lot of people that are currently infected are going to die, they just haven't died yet.  I think the death rate is still around 50% if we only look at confirmed cases that have either 1) died or 2) recovered. You can't assume that all of the living confirmed cases are going to recover. Stop making this terrible argument, it is seriously flawed.
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Not only that but we don't know what the long term outcomes will be for those who recover. We've already seen reports about lung scarring in younger healthy populations. Death is not the only adverse outcome here.

 
tonydead said:
Right, I qualified the posthumous stuff in one of my posts above, we should know better now and going forward.  Agree with healthcare response.  You said 3 weeks ago, the numbers should have corrected themselves by now and at least put us on the same magnitude.  The numbers show a mortality rate more in line with the regular flu.
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Where are you getting those numbers? I don't see its mortality rate as anything close to the regular flu.

 
Anarchy99 said:
So how protective of your community are people getting? I generally stay out of other people’s affairs and mind my own business. 

Our state has mandated all public and private schools closed for a minimum of several weeks (except daycare). And no gatherings over 10 people. 

Last night I drove by a driving school that had 30 kids sitting elbow to elbow and some other adults with them. (All clearly visible through the window.) Would you report it or let it slide?
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Report it.

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
As I mentioned the last time you tried to make this bogus argument, a lot of people that are currently infected are going to die, they just haven't died yet.  I think the death rate is still around 50% if we only look at confirmed cases that have either 1) died or 2) recovered. You can't assume that all of the living confirmed cases are going to recover. Stop making this terrible argument, it is seriously flawed.
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Last time I was talking everyone down from 3.5% to 1.0%. And I was unequivocally correct. 

Doug's premise is based on what the numbers were 3 weeks ago. How many people of the 4% infected that need critical care have been on a ventilator for longer than a month?  ETA: It would have to be a lot since right now the number is 0.01%.

I'm not ready to say the number is way less than 1%, yet.  But the fact remains, you cannot have a super high infection rate and a high mortality rate, we just don't have enough deaths to support that.

 
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Favipiravir (Avigan)   Look it up.  Will be interesting to see if it really works.  Tests in China say it does.  Fujifilm, the maker in Japan, says they cannot confirm it works.  Sounds like it will be early May before it is through trials for treatment of COVID 19 cases.  Still it's not a vaccine and doesn't stop the need for way more testing.  But a potential bright spot in helping those inflicted.

 
Doug B said:
This is a downer -- I had been assuming that common-cold onset symptoms were very different from COVID onset symptoms.

Is it still thought that an onset symptom of "runny nose" or "stuffy nose" equals "pretty much for sure not COVID"? Or do we** no longer think that? A few weeks ago, it has seemed that runny/stuffy nose was a common symptom of those getting over a COVID infection, after the worst of it had past.
 

** "we" meaning "best scientific info we have right this second".
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Think this is more of an abundance of cushion recommendation in the article (also it is just one dr. and not something from CDC).  Though a runny nose has been a sympton all along but just a small minority of symptoms. Big symptoms are still fever and dry cough.  

 
tonydead said:
Last time I was talking everyone down from 3.5% to 1.0%. And I was unequivocally correct. 

Doug's premise is based on what the numbers were 3 weeks ago. How many people of the 4% infected that need critical care have been on a ventilator for longer than a month?  ETA: It would have to be a lot since right now the number is 0.01%.

I'm not ready to say the number is way less than 1%, yet.  But the fact remains, you cannot have a super high infection rate and a high mortality rate, we just don't have enough deaths to support that.
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Educated estimates by smart people are saying that a 0.6% mortality rate is what we can expect when this is all over.

 
tonydead said:
But the fact remains, you cannot have a super high infection rate and a high mortality rate, we just don't have enough deaths to support that.
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The bolded really doesn't matter. Why focus on mortality rate? You don't agree that hospitalization rate is the lynchpin?

 
joffer said:
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/18/818026613/advice-from-france-to-avoid-ibuprofen-for-covid-19-leaves-experts-baffled
article on ibuprofen
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It seems the WHO is saying there is no concrete evidence that taking ibuprofin can worsen the symptoms. I understand where they're coming from, not having a nice long term study done to confirm one way or another. The problem is, when said study is done, it's going to be way to ####### late. So yeah, I'm going to err on the side of the French advice on this one since I've got a 500 pill bottle of Tylenol in my cupboard. 

 
trader jake said:
It won't be long until all non-essential businesses are closed nationwide - with the National Guard used to enforce the edict.

If non-essential supplies are needed and you have the ability to do so...I'd get them as soon as possible.  Good luck out there all - be safe.
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Hearing the same. An announcement may be coming this weekend. This is from someone who works for the state of Michigan. 

 
JAA said:
GB - I respect you a lot.  I’m sad we disagree on this topic, but we do  

I do not believe it is the govt responsibility to find me a job that a like. I don’t believe it is their responsibility to let me live in the place I want to live and spend the way I want to spend.

I believe in personal responsibility. I believe there will be times the govt needs to step in to help. I believe that is healthy.

However, I think what you are describing is unhealthy. What I’m hearing you say is that if I can’t find the job I like, in the place I want to live, the the govt should step in and help.

However, if there are zero jobs, that’s a huge difference between not having a job you like. For example, if Costco or Amazon is hiring nearby and you were a waitress that was laid off and collecting unemployment, well ... get to the store and start stocking shelves. 

All that said, I think this highlights why in our country we need a living wage and not a minimum wage. 
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I don't believe we disagree as much as you think.  Not sure if my point is being poorly communicated or not, but I'll try to clarify.

You suggested that the folks in the hospitality industry "get another job" - that's 15 MILLION people.  My contention is WHAT other job will they get? It has nothing to do with willingness to work, which seems to be what you suggest (almost every one of my friends is looking to do anything, that includes stocking shelves, and they'd be ecstatic to get $15 bucks an hour for it right now - they are also busting their asses trying to come up with innovative ways to make some scratch.  One-on-one video or in person cocktail making tips, private server or bartending services while people are camped up at home... but that doesn't work for even the best of servers, who can make $60-150k a year).

My point is willing or not, there are $15 million people, mostly unemployed / furloughed right now.  There will be what, a few hundred thousand temporary jobs at Costco, WalMart, Grocery chains?  What do you suggest for the other 10 or so million?

You seem to assume these people aren't willing to work stocking shelves. They are.  That was my point, that you don't seem to understand the reality of how certain industries (hospitality in this case) are being hit.  There are very few other jobs to go to, and other than what we agree upon re: stocking shelves, which is limited in number, almost no one is hiring.

To your last point, I agree  THOUSAND percent.  These people work hard. Harder than most I know.  Often 15 hour days.  They deserve a living wage.  Not only deserve it, but for the economic standing of our nation, we have made ourselves WEAK because our economy is in no position to withstand any such jolt as we are seeing today. Because folks have low wages, multiple jobs, too much $$ spent on housing and transportation (and what is left is spent too often on materialism fed by the constant push of commercialism and greed in our nation) AND no health insurance.  The result is what we see now...

When there are no - or very few - other jobs available, there is no outlet.  Even for folks willing to work as hard as anyone.

Hope that helps clarify my point. 

 
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