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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (23 Viewers)

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I'm not 100% sure what the point was on South Korea, but they appear to have been (and continue to be) far more extreme and restrictive than us.

This is from yesterday:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-south-korea-crackdown-self-quarantine-wristband-forced
JMHO, this is a huge part of the disconnect. We have voices championing the desirable aspects of what other countries are doing, who may even point to positive results of those decisions in 3 weeks. I'm not seeing any dialogue of how/whether we are capable to mimic the mitigating controls. Is the US working toward those controls so we can actually become a fast follower with an articulated plan? Or, are we still thinking of ourselves as different and above all that effort, as we did skipping over the containment phase?

 
Literally 2 minutes ago Mrs APK says to me (while I'm typing in this thread):   "Wow, did you read on Apple News that the virus has been in California since November?"

She then went on to say "I mean, they wouldn't report it without evidence, right?  It's coming from Stanford....."  😡😡😡😡

 
There’s not a lot of “bad information“. There’s a lot of incomplete data. We’ve never encountered this virus before, and we’ve never had a more internationally connected world than we do right now. So any predictive model has a 90% chance of being wrong at the end. Because we are trying to predict something that we’ve never lived through with a virus that we’ve never seen it’s behavior.

I would also reject the idea that there are two different viewpoints on this.  I would hope everybody has the same viewpoint: that we should find a way to stem the unmitigated spread of the virus and also try to find a way to open up some sort of economic activity until we have a vaccine or can absolutely control using testing and isolation and contact tracing.

it’s clear that social distancing and stay at home orders are effective especially for countries that have not ramped up their testing capacities or cannot control their population through electronic monitoring.  It’s also clear that this is an unsustainable solution long-term for the economy.  I don’t think anybody can disagree with those two points and if anybody does try to disagree with either of those two points I am completely willing to write them off as not intelligent enough to be worth having a conversation with. 
 

I am hopeful as you are that we can come up with a program of mask wearing, social distancing and reducing crowd sizes that could be a way to open up many local businesses and allow people to get back to work but I’m not sure there’s any proof that any country has done that successfully yet.
Excellent post. 

 
I've got an idea. How about we trash the last ten pages and you guys can start a new thread discussing when the virus came to the US. Then, everyone who wants to talk about it can go over there and leave this thread for discussion that actually matters. 
Yep, this was once a good thread and then a few select posters decided to derail it and be more concerned and being "right" vs just trying to talk about this. 

 
If we are talking about spikes in Food Bank demand, that’s objectively true here. I’m on grant review committees in Austin, Dallas/Ft Worth and Houston. I’ve heard data on household violence spikes in DFW. Anecdotes around increased demand at the domestic violence shelters in Austin without hard numbers. Nothing yet in Houston.
I don't understand why it would be doubted. What did people think would happen when people lost their jobs and were stuck at home with too much time on their hands and in some cases trapped with abusive people. I don't think people realize how many Americans carry a balance under $500 in their checking accounts
I don’t think anyone is doubting that times are harder now. However, the catastrophic economic and societal doom and gloom due to NPIs feels over played.

Yes - people need mire help. Yes - domestic and suicides are up. Does that mean the current plan is wrong or failing or needs changing?

 
i had similar, Layne ... mine was the nastiest #### to ever hit me - and i've been hospitalized 5 times with pneumonia over the past 25+ years, even once in quaratine for 12 days ('05) with atelectasis that was so painful i buckled every time i coughed (which was roughly every 30 seconds for 2 straight weeks).

none of those previous episodes compared to October's ### kicking ... i had it from the 12th to the 23rd, as per my records. 

i was working my Queens (Kew Gardens/Rego Park/Flushing/Jamaica/South Ozone) and Brooklyn (ENY/Flatlands/Sheepshead/Canarsie) client calls specifically around the time of onset - you anywhere near those vicinities for work or home?

anyway ... doc ruled out flu, said it was upper resp - was killer.  
I’m in Bay Ridge, my apartment is about a hundred yards from the Fort Hamilton stop on the N train (Borough Park is a few blocks north.)

Diatribe below.

I had pneumonia when I was 21. This was WAY worse.

I also had an undiagnosed disease Dec ‘07-Apr ‘08. Gastrointestinal stuff, nothing worked right, chronic fatigue - similar symptoms to Crohn's (eliminated, along with a half dozen other theories) - and THEN I had an unrelated concurrent acute vestibular infection. HELLO VERTIGO!

My GP sent me to 9 doctors, even a CDC Infectious Disease Specialist couldn’t figure it out. Name any outpatient procedure - capsule endoscopy, colonoscopy, full MRI, auditory, ENT - they tried it. They used to do conference calls with all the specialists trying to brainstorm. Finally a Nutritionist started experimenting with diets; long story short, kale cured me. #truestorybro

Then it was six months of rehab to relearn balance functions. About the time that finished, my daughter was born - best year ever lol.

Not as long, not as debilitating, but my upper respiratory infection last October was WAY, WAY worse.

Same same on the diagnosis, doctors ruled out flu. I spent a good 8-10 hours in an ER isolation room, they brought in a mobile unit for a chest X-ray. They wanted to keep me overnight, I talked them out of it after a shift change (I have a 57 year streak of having never been hospitalized lol.) I’d have to look up the name of the two Rx, but maybe one was an anti-inflammatory & the other was a steroid? Plus I tried a ton of OTC for symptoms. 

Nothing you can do for a viral infection except ride it out. About three weeks IIRC.

I know about 30+ people who had or have Covid 19 (cluster outbreak in our church.) It’s brutal, like trying to breath through a straw while constantly coughing & exhaustion from the body aches. Slow recovery for most folks.

After the scare last fall, really hoping I don’t have to deal with it.
 
Engineer: based on my inspections and analysis, this bridge may collapse.  I reccomend shutting it down for 2 weeks and repairing it.

Politician: wow, shutting the bridge down will put a real strain on our economy. Besides, this bridge had stood for 50 years already; my instincts say its good for 50 more.
Relevant

 
It's somewhat amazing how close we all are to agreeing with one another. The differences aren't all that great. I don't want to belabor things further on a Sunday, Easter no less, when the subtleties just aren't that significant. All I've ever passionately disagreed with were comments that this shutdown should last for months even years if that's what it took (Yes, that point was made). Shutting down for an extended period of time as a singular option is a complete and total non option unless we want to destroy more lives that this virus is capable of. The mortality rate of hunger, poverty, inability to afford health care, heightened drug use, depression, and domestic abuse combine to dwarf the mortality rate of Covid-19. There are simply smarter ways, and I think everyone can agree with that. The shutdown had a role in the response and I've even lauded places that utilized them for a period of time. But a shutdown is a simpleton response to a complex problem. And they can't go on for very long without the unintended consequences exceeding the original problem. The U.S. simply must move on to the next more intelligent targeted responses very soon. No, we're not ready - not ready to open up and send people back to work WITHOUT replacement measures to counteract what would be uncontrolled spread. None of us are going to be heard here and have those better solutions reach the ears of our leaders. But the smart, more directed, non-societal collapsing ideas are out there, and we all have to hope they're embraced. And soon.
In a vacuum this is a great post.  Where I think you get on the wrong foot with people is in some of your previously expressed beliefs that this was probably ravaging the population in November and December, California might have hit herd immunity already, and the the death rate is akin to that of the flu.  If a person feels that way, they likely are going to argue for a quicker "return to normal" than a person who believes that this is a deadly virus.

Ultimately you may be right about both claims.  But this is a novel virus and we can't scientifically prove either stance.  In the absence of that proof, I think officials have to be far more cautious about opening things up than the side that thinks this is likely as dangerous as the flu.

The government has provided some impressive financial incentives that are about to hit people's bank accounts.  So why open it up now when the relief is finally about to hit?

 
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Nobody wants to lift the lockdown and put lives in danger because they are butt hurt they can't eat ribs at TGIFridays anymore.  There's a legitimate concern that there are long term impacts tied to this lockdown that are not being considered
Please prove the bolded portion of your assertion.

The studies I have read disagree with it. In addition, why do you assume additional approaches aren’t being considered?

 
The amount of dishes I do in this home quarantine is staggering. THEY NEVER END
I ran two loads last night. My wife had left the dishwasher 4/5ths full without running it. I went in to clean up her potato salad mess and got a surprise. 

 
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I don’t think anyone is doubting that times are harder now. However, the catastrophic economic and societal doom and gloom due to NPIs feels over played.

Yes - people need mire help. Yes - domestic and suicides are up. Does that mean the current plan is wrong or failing or needs changing?
IMO, I think your latter paragraph is due to this situation being pretty much unlike anything we've seen in a century. There's no real way to guarantee safety short of going completely off the grid and self sustaining, because it's a novel virus, we have no natural immunity to it; and while there's hope this ends soon, we just don't know how soon. Uncertainty can have that effect. To me, and this is strictly my opinion, we needed to step up sooner, haven't done so, and so this is going to be prolonged as a result.

 
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I ran two loads last night. My wife had left the dishwasher 4/5ths full without running it.
That’s my move :lol:  

Seriously though it’s like they never end, how did we somehow use 14 glasses today? Water bill is going to be redonkulous next month. 

 
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Czechia is now 14 days past their plateau, and new cases are down 50% from the peak.

The USA is maybe 1 day past our plateau. I very much doubt that our caseload will be down 50% two weeks from now.
Agreed

And each state will have its own curve and need to have its own approach. Unfortunately, state to state travel will need to be considered 

 
Your post is kinda mean, please don’t hurt my feelings. 

So the governors forced companies to fire people?  Gosh, that sounds so harsh!  Those mean governors!

I sincerely apologize for the snark, but I think you realize the miss in your argument, yes?
Governors: if you open for business the police will be at your door

Owner: puts up closed sign

Jaa: the owner decided to close his business
Thank you. I’m hoping you finally saw the err of your assertion that the governors created the unemployment. 

 
I ran two loads last night. My wife had left the dishwasher 4/5ths full without running it. I went in to clean up her potato salad mess and got a surprise. 
My wife left it full and didnt run it because we had already run it. Did she hand wash the new dishes? Nope. Just put them in the sink. 

I luckily have already learned it makes no sense to point out the flaw in the logic. I stay up later so I just wash them after 4:30pm. 

Ok fine she doesnt go to bed that early..

 
Within the theme of intelligent response to the virus, I'm more interested in how businesses can exist within the new normal of the shutdown.  The economy is not dead - far from it.  Companies will figure out how to adapt.  That's what's great about capitalism - hungry entrepreneurs will figure it out.

Restaurants will pivot to delivery/curb side.  Food trucks will go to neighborhoods.  New businesses will thrive - instacart, door dash, etc.  Some technologies will expand - Zoom, Netflix, etc.

Clearly there are some paradigms that are shifting.  I want to know what the impacts are, how people adapt, and how we move forward in a world of social distancing.

ETA: within my earlier bridge analogy, i really liked the ferry response.  Here the ferryman will be making a bunch of money.  What is the real world equivalent of that?   

 
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JMHO, this is a huge part of the disconnect. We have voices championing the desirable aspects of what other countries are doing, who may even point to positive results of those decisions in 3 weeks. I'm not seeing any dialogue of how/whether we are capable to mimic the mitigating controls. Is the US working toward those controls so we can actually become a fast follower with an articulated plan? Or, are we still thinking of ourselves as different and above all that effort, as we did skipping over the containment phase?
Exactly. The disconnect is that we don’t have or are unwilling to embrace the other measures. We can’t just magically become South Korea without doing what they did. The reason why we have draconian stay at home measures for everyone is we don’t have or don’t want to do the alternatives. Which is massive diagnostic testing, massive antibody testing, actual surveillance, isolation, contact tracing, and eventually a vaccine.

What I see unfortunately is a total willingness to skip those steps because “but we all stayed at home though”. Even though we didn’t yet. The model that most are pinning their hopes on literally says “assuming social distancing measures remain in place through May 2020”. Heck we’re not even willing to do that? Let alone the other things, and we think we’re going to be like South Korea? That’s a joke.

 
My wife left it full and didnt run it because we had already run it. Did she hand wash the new dishes? Nope. Just put them in the sink. 

I luckily have already learned it makes no sense to point out the flaw in the logic. I stay up later so I just wash them after 4:30pm. 

Ok fine she doesnt go to bed that early..
With age comes wisdom (generally.)

You seem like a fella who understands some hills are not worth dying for. Bet you have a good marriage.

Happy wife, happy life.

 
It's somewhat amazing how close we all are to agreeing with one another. The differences aren't all that great. I don't want to belabor things further on a Sunday, Easter no less, when the subtleties just aren't that significant. All I've ever passionately disagreed with were comments that this shutdown should last for months even years if that's what it took (Yes, that point was made). Shutting down for an extended period of time as a singular option is a complete and total non option unless we want to destroy more lives that this virus is capable of. The mortality rate of hunger, poverty, inability to afford health care, heightened drug use, depression, and domestic abuse combine to dwarf the mortality rate of Covid-19. There are simply smarter ways, and I think everyone can agree with that. The shutdown had a role in the response and I've even lauded places that utilized them for a period of time. But a shutdown is a simpleton response to a complex problem. And they can't go on for very long without the unintended consequences exceeding the original problem. The U.S. simply must move on to the next more intelligent targeted responses very soon. No, we're not ready - not ready to open up and send people back to work WITHOUT replacement measures to counteract what would be uncontrolled spread. None of us are going to be heard here and have those better solutions reach the ears of our leaders. But the smart, more directed, non-societal collapsing ideas are out there, and we all have to hope they're embraced. And soon.
Hunger, poverty, inability to afford health care, heightened drug use, depression, and domestic abuse are all going to increase regardless of whether government keeps or lifts the shuftdown. They are a result of a worldwide pandemic. Ending the shutdown won't avoid those issues at all. 

When a government issues an evacuation order for a hurricane, most people would evacuate even without the order at all. The order the evacuation to save the fools who wouldn't. All cancelling an evacuation would do is result in fools being killed that could have been saved if they had been ordered to evacuate. Cancelling the evacuation would not save the economy at all. The hurricane killed it. The same holds true for pandemics and stay at home orders. It's to save the fools. 

 
Hunger, poverty, inability to afford health care, heightened drug use, depression, and domestic abuse are all going to increase regardless of whether government keeps or lifts the shuftdown. They are a result of a worldwide pandemic. Ending the shutdown won't avoid those issues at all. 

When a government issues an evacuation order for a hurricane, most people would evacuate even without the order at all. The order the evacuation to save the fools who wouldn't. All cancelling an evacuation would do is result in fools being killed that could have been saved if they had been ordered to evacuate. Cancelling the evacuation would not save the economy at all. The hurricane killed it. The same holds true for pandemics and stay at home orders. It's to save the fools. 
Of course ending the shutdown won't avoid those issues but it will certainly help keeping those numbers lower.  I'm not advocating opening things up yet.  I think another 4-6 weeks and lets see where the numbers are.  However I think it's a pipe dream to think we're going to have an effective vaccine for at least 12 months.  Personally I'm not confident we're ever going to have one.  Anyway at some point we're going to have to learn how to live with this virus. It's going to be part of our lives and we can't stay locked up forever.  Again not saying to open things up now or in the near future.  But whether it's mandatory masks in public, continued social distancing, whatever at some point, like this summer sometime, we have to start opening some things back up imo.  Now is not the time but the govt can only keep us going for so long.  Happy Easter everyone!

 
Of course ending the shutdown won't avoid those issues but it will certainly help keeping those numbers lower.  I'm not advocating opening things up yet.  I think another 4-6 weeks and lets see where the numbers are.  However I think it's a pipe dream to think we're going to have an effective vaccine for at least 12 months.  Personally I'm not confident we're ever going to have one.  Anyway at some point we're going to have to learn how to live with this virus. It's going to be part of our lives and we can't stay locked up forever.  Again not saying to open things up now or in the near future.  But whether it's mandatory masks in public, continued social distancing, whatever at some point, like this summer sometime, we have to start opening some things back up imo.  Now is not the time but the govt can only keep us going for so long.  Happy Easter everyone!
There are other ways to keep those numbers lower. But that's political discussion and can't be talked about in this thread.

Lowering those numbers by letting fools die is all we can really discuss in this thread. The question is, will the number of fools that die be higher or lower than than the number of hunger, poverty, inability to afford health care, heightened drug use, depression, and domestic abuse deaths that you admit can only be lowered, and not avoided. 

 
Opening up without widespread, quick, and accurate testing would be really bad.  Until we have a plan for achieving that any discussion of reopening is short-sighted.
That seems self-evident.

Not trying to be snarky, but like “we should probably put on this parachute 🪂 before we jump out of the airplane” obvious.

I cannot read every post in this mega thread, but presumably people are not advocating let’s just wing it.

Easily accessible and rapid testing (for Covid and antibodies), along with contact tracing, would seem like perquisites to the discussion.

:oldunsure:

No? 

 
MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

My supermarket had the excellent quality TP today. I should be good through X-mas*

*Before you accuse me of hoarding, I'm single and I bought one package with 12 rolls which should last me about 5 months, on top of the open package I already had.

 
That seems self-evident.

Not trying to be snarky, but like “we should probably put on this parachute 🪂 before we jump out of the airplane” obvious.

I cannot read every post in this mega thread, but presumably people are not advocating let’s just wing it.

Easily accessible and rapid testing (for Covid and antibodies), along with contact tracing, would seem like perquisites to the discussion.

:oldunsure:

No? 
Hopefully. But we were way late in developing testing. No sure when we will have enough. 

 
Hopefully. But we were way late in developing testing. No sure when we will have enough. 
Our country is just as guilty as the Chinese when it comes to the data gathering of this disease.  The Chinese knew the severity of the disease and conducted massive testing and contact tracing and withheld or lied about that information to the rest of the world in order to limit the impact on the markets.  The United States is instead choosing to not gather the data so that the scope of the pandemic is impossible to be measured.  I think that what we are doing is arguably worse.  We should have a right to know through data and not gut instinct if it's safe for us to go back to normal.   The fact that our country has made excuse after excuse not to focus on massive testing absolutely leads me to believe that the powers that be know that the numbers would be shocking and staggering.  I firmly believe that our failure to do massive testing is not solely due to ineptitude--it was also done by design to limit the damage to our markets and to protect certain "politicians" (let's leave it at that).  

The wealthiest and most technologically advanced country on the planet is now somehow unable to make giant q-tips in volume six weeks into a deadly pandemic?  Don't kid yourselves--we had and have the ability to do much more testing--but there is a reason why they are stalling on it. Testing will be widely available after the first and second wave of the disease passes through our population to keep the numbers artificially low.   Even coroners are saying that they are forced to under report covid deaths as they aren't getting supplied test kits that are required for them to actually confirm whether a death was covid related. 

We are many weeks in this disease--and our understanding of the disease is no different than it was at the beginning. We were told that it was not airborne, and that masks were a waste--and now we're told that we probably should have them.  We are led to believe that are we learning more about it--but the reality is that we don't know much.  With all of this said--I am personally going to continue to avoid any unnecessary contact and interactions with people and to do my best to maintain social distancing even once things open back up.  I do not trust our government a lick when it comes to my health and safety--and nor should you.   Be safe everybody and Happy Easter to you and your families. 

 
Nothing you can do for a viral infection except ride it out.
pretty sure you, and probably most everyone,  know you can help your immune system help you.

and that google will provide more info about practices and supplements that may help than you want to know.

but i wanted to say (again) that in the last couple years, i have had truly amazing results from oregano oil extract for common cold when taken early in the course of illness.

i wish i had known of it years ago.

have personally found echinacea extract helpful as well, sometimes/frequently, but not amazingly like the oregano oil 10:1 extract.

 
I made a rookie mistake yesterday gentlemen. I ran out of beer last night. Found one in the back of the fridge this morning.

Kansas liquors stores are closed by law on Easter Sunday. 

Had to drive to Missouri for beer.
I'm sorry that you had to go to Missouri.  Free State is selling growlers today from 2-5.  

 
pretty sure you, and probably most everyone,  know you can help your immune system help you.

and that google will provide more info about practices and supplements that may help than you want to know.

but i wanted to say (again) that in the last couple years, i have had truly amazing results from oregano oil extract for common cold when taken early in the course of illness.

i wish i had known of it years ago.

have personally found echinacea extract helpful as well, sometimes/frequently, but not amazingly like the oregano oil 10:1 extract.
Amen to all that

this will sound ridiculous, incredibly over simplified, but the best health practice I have learned in the last 15+ years (my 40s & 50s)?

stay. hydrated.

every single day.

it improves your life at a cellular level, it helps with mood management, it is vital to almost every system in your body

if its been a lifelong habit, good on ya. if you don’t make a conscious effort to drink 60-100 ounces of water each day, give it a shot. consistency is key.

 
Now you guys are arguing about hypothetical anologies?
Even though it's natural to use them, and it seems like they would be good for simplifying differences in viewpoints, I've learned not to use analogies.

People just end up arguing about why they aren't accurate in this way or that way and lose track of the original situation.

 
Some are. Prefering "native wit", "instinct" and "common sense" over data and science.
Native wit was from me.  I used it when asked "how are you sure July is not the answer".  Because I was guessing, which is as good as you and Fauci at the moment.  Appreciate the belittlement, though.

I didn't say F science or open in April.  I like science.  I'm an engineer.  But if the gov doesn't get good data and a believable, properly resourced plan pronto, people are going off the reservation.

 
Native wit was from me.  I used it when asked "how are you sure July is not the answer".  Because I was guessing, which is as good as you and Fauci at the moment.  Appreciate the belittlement, though.

I didn't say F science or open in April.  I like science.  I'm an engineer.  But if the gov doesn't get good data and a believable, properly resourced plan pronto, people are going off the reservation.
Did you seriously just write that your estimate is as good as Fauci's?

FWIW, am not saying that Fauci is infallible.  Nor do I believe that he shouldn't be questioned.  But the hubris of thinking that YOUR opinion is equal to his is a huge problem IMO.  This denigration of expertise, distrust of authority and widescale Dunning-Kruger effect is very dangerous.

Surely you didn't mean that, right?

 
My wife asked me to go pick up a meal curbside at Boston Market for Easter today.  I have been waiting curbside for 20 minutes now as it sounds like they are swamped with orders.  

Some people have been going into the store to place or pick up orders but I was told they will bring it to my car.  Anyways, I lowered the window a bit as it was getting warm.  I see a guy walking toward the store behind my car and he proceeds to place a finger on one of his nostrils and blow a snot rocket into the parking lot in the direction of my open window.  WTF is wrong with people!!!  I quickly raised my window and turned on the AC.

 
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