*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)

[parasaurolophus]

Perhaps their goal isn't just to keep hospitals from getting overwhelmed, but also to keep this from exploding when they do start to open it back up.  I think it's obvious that MOST hospitals in the country didn't get overwhelmed this time.  That's a good thing.  That's proof that the quarantine and the social distancing is working.  

This makes zero sense. If you have counties that have 95% capacity available you should open up some things that you anticipate should move capacity to 70% available or 50% available if modeling dictates thats acceptable. If X number of people are going to the grocery store each day and you anticipate that opening up industry abc and xyz would add 10% to X in that area it is a no brainer to open it up. That 10% increase in traffic cant make it explode and if cases can be increased, but stay well below capacity. That is actually better for a community, not worse. That is how you would limit an explosion later. 

In some of these counties we will see near total suppression. How does that help them unless you think it will just go away?

Now I could at least understand if you felt that we will be saved by medical intervention and we just need to hold on until then, but you immediately shoot down every treatment that anybody brings up even resorting to a weird theory about a company trying to grab money because news came out after hours. 

So what is your issue with opening anything up? Is it a fairness issue? If people in some cities need to be doing something than everywhere else should have to do it also? 

 

[Doug B]

Ohio is having the same problems.  To many claims and an antiquated system.  There are lots of reports of people not receiving any unemployment checks.  The $600 federal money is supposed to start getting paid this week.  They had to build a new system in order to pay it.

Yeah, this sort of makes sense.  My company has lots of legacy IT and brutally bad IT people.  It would take us months to figure this out.

Hoping this isn't taken as too political -- do not necessarily consider this statement advocacy:

(One of the little-discussed aspects of a Basic Income Guarantee system is that a large-scale protocol for immediate funds transfer to all Americans is set up on the front end, remains in place, and can be leveraged for other initiatives.)

Again, not advocacy of a specific position -- a BIG may or may not be a good idea, but a better, unified mousetrap for funds transfer can be considered on its own merits.

 

[Death Bytes]

Herd immunity is an overused term.  I don’t know a single medical expert who wants to get to “herd immunity” by infecting 70% of the population.   Rather, it’s a term used by infectious disease specialists to talk about what % of the population needs to be immunized to effectively stop / control the spread of the disease.

A  vaccine would be preferable. But if we never develop one, there is no other end game to this other than herd immunity. That's not expressing a "want". It's simply expressing a fact. 

 

[IvanKaramazov]

China registers 1290 new deaths today on Worldometer.  

But how is that possible when they've had no new cases recently?  It's almost as if their numbers don't make any rational sense.

 

[Doug B]

Pretty good twitter thread on Remdesivir

https://twitter.com/jeremyfaust/status/1251018179981316097?s=21

A lot of times, I think the following, but never really say it out loud:

"Any and all news about any and all COVID-19 medicine, treatments, vaccines, clinical trials, etc. etc. etc. ... it's ALL just noise for the next year or two or three."

Just so, so much chaff to sort through. So many articles depending on the general public (esp. those with cash to invest) being naive about how treatments get established as truly beneficial.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

China registers 1290 new deaths today on Worldometer.  

But how is that possible when they've had no new cases recently?  It's almost as if their numbers don't make any rational sense.

I almost feel bad for all the people in this thread who were toeing the communist party line on this.

Almost.

 

[Doug B]

I think it's obvious that MOST hospitals in the country didn't get overwhelmed this time.  That's a good thing.  That's proof that the quarantine and the social distancing is working.  

Hear, hear. I, for one, would rather that the airbag deploys before I bite the steering wheel, not after.

 

[Redwes25]

I almost feel bad for all the people in this thread who were toeing the communist party line on this.

Almost.

I don't think anyone in this thread has done that.  I think people have pointed out that China has successfully contained the virus.  Yes, their historical numbers are full of #### but it appears they have successfully controlled the virus though a combination of mitigation measure, testing and tracing.  

 

[Redwes25]

But how is that possible when they've had no new cases recently?  It's almost as if their numbers don't make any rational sense.

These aren't new deaths but revisions to old numbers.  

 

[the moops]

I almost feel bad for all the people in this thread who were toeing the communist party line on this.

Almost.

Take this take down the hall to the other forum friend

 

[need2know]

I don't think anyone in this thread has done that.  I think people have pointed out that China has successfully contained the virus.  Yes, their historical numbers are full of #### but it appears they have successfully controlled the virus though a combination of mitigation measure, testing and tracing.  

look closer

 

[Battersbox]

Pretty good twitter thread on Remdesivir

https://twitter.com/jeremyfaust/status/1251018179981316097?s=21

Yes, of course we need fully controlled trials. I don't know that this guy is saying anything different than what many others have said in that regard.
His details about the participants of the trial the original story from STAT referred to are interesting if true. He's asserting that Gilead's trial of 'severe' patients is bogus from the get-go, because those patients aren't actually severe. Not sure how he would know that.

 

[TheWinz]

I don't think anyone in this thread has done that.  I think people have pointed out that China has successfully contained the virus.  Yes, their historical numbers are full of #### but it appears they have successfully controlled the virus though a combination of mitigation measure, testing and tracing.  

This is where China kicks our ###.  In China if you don't adhere to social distancing rules, they will KILL you.  We only complain about it.  I wonder how many would go to church if there were snipers picking them off at the door?

 

[IvanKaramazov]

This is where China kicks our ###.  In China if you don't adhere to social distancing rules, they will KILL you.  

Hold on a second.  You see this policy choice as reflecting positively on China?

 

[huthut]

This makes zero sense. If you have counties that have 95% capacity available you should open up some things that you anticipate should move capacity to 70% available or 50% available if modeling dictates thats acceptable. If X number of people are going to the grocery store each day and you anticipate that opening up industry abc and xyz would add 10% to X in that area it is a no brainer to open it up. That 10% increase in traffic cant make it explode and if cases can be increased, but stay well below capacity. That is actually better for a community, not worse. That is how you would limit an explosion later. 

In some of these counties we will see near total suppression. How does that help them unless you think it will just go away?

Now I could at least understand if you felt that we will be saved by medical intervention and we just need to hold on until then, but you immediately shoot down every treatment that anybody brings up even resorting to a weird theory about a company trying to grab money because news came out after hours. 

So what is your issue with opening anything up? Is it a fairness issue? If people in some cities need to be doing something than everywhere else should have to do it also? 

It is really hard to make decisions without having more testing information. Right now it is hard to tell what the death-rate is for people with full medical access, because with such limited testing only the people with the most severe symptoms are being tested. Hospital capacity does not mitigate all deaths though, and it seems like there are a number of people who just die, even with full medical care. In CA with low per capita COVID diagnosis, it looks like 3% of people diagnosed die. What does that mean? Who knows without more testing. It could be 0.01%, or it could be close to 3%.

 

[TheWinz]

Hold on a second.  You see this policy choice as reflecting positively on China?

In this case, yes.  Remember when your parents said "because I said so"?  That doesn't work anymore.

 

[JAA]

Here they are, I hope you read them. The evidence is clear at a macro and micro level.  I hope you keep an open mind and we move forward in this unprecedented time:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/976107/coronavirus-update-long-term-economic-impact-forecast-to-be-less-than-2008-recession

http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/policy-for-the-covid-19-crisis/

LOL, wasn't I raked over the coals on here when I posted that Morningstar article? Maybe it was another site. Have read that one. Don't think it says it will be _better_ if we keep up the quarantine, just that it won't be as bad overall as some are projecting. 

Anyway, thanks for responding. Good luck. 

You weren't raked by me, I was grateful and thankful to the person who posted it.  It absolutely has a better economic outlook, please read all of the scenarios and feedback from stimulus package.  You should also read the ign survey, the feedback is all there.

I will go on a quick rant:  No one has yet to find ANY economic analysis which states we should be aggressive in opening up.  None, zero, zip, zilch, nada, 0, cero, etc, etc, etc.  How on EARTH can anyone have the opinion that we should be looking to open up sooner rather than later?  I mean, unless these opinions are those of more decorated economists?  Am I missing something here?  Sholdnt it be easy to have faith in the experts?

 

[jamny]

You weren't raked by me, I was grateful and thankful to the person who posted it.  It absolutely has a better economic outlook, please read all of the scenarios and feedback from stimulus package.  You should also read the ign survey, the feedback is all there.

I will go on a quick rant:  No one has yet to find ANY economic analysis which states we should be aggressive in opening up.  None, zero, zip, zilch, nada, 0, cero, etc, etc, etc.  How on EARTH can anyone have the opinion that we should be looking to open up sooner rather than later?  I mean, unless these opinions are those of more decorated economists?  Am I missing something here?  Sholdnt it be easy to have faith in the experts?

Who is saying we should be aggressive in opening up?

 

[Doug B]

Pretty good twitter thread on Remdesivir

https://twitter.com/jeremyfaust/status/1251018179981316097?s=21

Yes, of course we need fully controlled trials. I don't know that this guy is saying anything different than what many others have said in that regard.

I guess it depends on who you listen to and speak with in meatspace. I find that the necessities of randomized and controlled trials are close to universally ignored by the public. Or even not understood at all.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

In this case, yes.  Remember when your parents said "because I said so"?  That doesn't work anymore.

Sure, but I don't think shooting people on their way to church is the best response.  (Mods: Sorry if my anti-murdering-our-own-citizens position is too political.  I can take it to the PSF).

 

[Battersbox]

I don't know that it's universal, or even close to that. But your point is taken.

I would add that some modicum of grace should be afforded to a 'meatspace' that is largely frightened and trying to be hopeful.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Not sure if it’s been previously discussed as this thread moves fast and I don’t always get time to read it all, but saw this mentioned somewhere else and it hadn’t occurred to me for some reason.

If you are wearing an N95 mask with a valve, you should wear some other mask or fabric over it as well. You are protected without the extra layer, but the valve means on exhale you are potentially exposing others if you have it and don’t know it.

 

[AAABatteries]

Who is saying we should be aggressive in opening up?

One thing for sure that needs to happen is anybody who can work remote should for as long as possible.  That should be a mandate from state and national leaders - do not require your employees to come onsite if it's not absolutely required.  I think that and a few other measures will help a lot to ease in to reopening.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

You weren't raked by me, I was grateful and thankful to the person who posted it.  It absolutely has a better economic outlook, please read all of the scenarios and feedback from stimulus package.  You should also read the ign survey, the feedback is all there.

I will go on a quick rant:  No one has yet to find ANY economic analysis which states we should be aggressive in opening up.  None, zero, zip, zilch, nada, 0, cero, etc, etc, etc.  How on EARTH can anyone have the opinion that we should be looking to open up sooner rather than later?  I mean, unless these opinions are those of more decorated economists?  Am I missing something here?  Sholdnt it be easy to have faith in the experts?

Not for everyone, no. Again, your posts are fine but they point out my earlier contention that life on this message board is not the same as life for a large number of other Americans. 

 

[msommer]

 I don’t know a single medical expert who wants to get to “herd immunity”

Anders Tegnell, the head of Swedish CDC, claimed the other day that he could begin to see the start of herd immunity in Sweden. I'd venture that this was his plan all along

 

[beer 30]

Correct, I don't think allowing millions to die is an effective strategy.  No one is shooting for herd immunity.

I've seen it mentioned in here before but I don't recall the estimates, how long would it take to achieve herd immunity? There was a post that did the math in this thread and I want to say the numbers came out to something like 2-3 years? Anyone? TIA

 

[Death Bytes]

Who is saying we should be aggressive in opening up?

Lot's a protests demanding just that. 

 

[Mr Anonymous]

Another uptick in posts from the perspective that any reopening will be a free for all. It isn't.

 

[shader]

This makes zero sense. If you have counties that have 95% capacity available you should open up some things that you anticipate should move capacity to 70% available or 50% available if modeling dictates thats acceptable. If X number of people are going to the grocery store each day and you anticipate that opening up industry abc and xyz would add 10% to X in that area it is a no brainer to open it up. That 10% increase in traffic cant make it explode and if cases can be increased, but stay well below capacity. That is actually better for a community, not worse. That is how you would limit an explosion later. 

In some of these counties we will see near total suppression. How does that help them unless you think it will just go away?

Now I could at least understand if you felt that we will be saved by medical intervention and we just need to hold on until then, but you immediately shoot down every treatment that anybody brings up even resorting to a weird theory about a company trying to grab money because news came out after hours. 

So what is your issue with opening anything up? Is it a fairness issue? If people in some cities need to be doing something than everywhere else should have to do it also? 

I haven't shot down any legitimate treatment that has ever come out.  BTW, that was quite a curve-ball that has nothing to do with the rest of your post.

My issue with opening things up RIGHT NOW, is that there are more cases than there were a month ago.  When the active cases are really low and we can test and contact trace, then open it back up.  But currently, none of those things are true.  

 

[jplvr]

Lot's a protests demanding just that. 

The Michigan governor has been pretty dumb about this, telling people they can't cut grass, buy seed, and what not. I know you were vague, but that protest is one people are talking about lately.

 

[Keerock]

I don't think anyone in this thread has done that.  I think people have pointed out that China has successfully contained the virus.  Yes, their historical numbers are full of #### but it appears they have successfully controlled the virus though a combination of mitigation measure, testing and tracing.  

This is where China kicks our ###.  In China if you don't adhere to social distancing rules, they will KILL you.  We only complain about it.  I wonder how many would go to church if there were snipers picking them off at the door?

I don't believe one thing China has reported.  Initial information, numbers tested, positives, deaths... not one thing.  China SAYS they've successfully contained the virus.  I'm not buying any of it.  Maybe they have and maybe they haven't, but I'll never take their word for it.  

 

[Mr Anonymous]

The only places that will meet phase one reopening criteria are the places where cases are declining. This isn't some hidden secret.

Cases are up we shouldn't reopen!!!!

 

[Death Bytes]

I don't believe one thing China has reported.  Initial information, numbers tested, positives, deaths... not one thing.  China SAYS they've successfully contained the virus.  I'm not buying any of it.  Maybe they have and maybe they haven't, but I'll never take their word for it.  

True. But either way, there is no good news for us.

If they've contained it, then in order for us to do the same, we'd need the draconian measures they can' do that go against our constitutional rights.

If they haven't contained it, even with the draconian measures they can use, then how the hell are we supposed to contain it? 

 

[Doug B]

Pretty good twitter thread on Remdesivir

https://twitter.com/jeremyfaust/status/1251018179981316097?s=21

Yes, of course we need fully controlled trials. I don't know that this guy is saying anything different than what many others have said in that regard.

I guess it depends on who you listen to and speak with in meatspace. I find that the necessities of randomized and controlled trials are close to universally ignored by the public. Or even not understood at all.

Battersbox said:

I don't know that it's universal, or even close to that. But your point is taken.

I would add that some modicum of grace should be afforded to a 'meatspace' that is largely frightened and trying to be hopeful

I am sure I am overgeneralizing based on a small number of audacious individuals, including several in the family:

What I notice more than anything are real-life people -- apparently earnestly** -- professing that even if they got COVID, "a pill will clear it up" ([hydro]chloroquine, remesdevir, azithromycin, etc.) ... and thus "Why is anything anywhere closed up?", "Why social distancing?", "Why not back to pre-COVID normal right now?", etc.
 

** Though it could be false bravado. One of the most vocal about "just a flu" and "we got a pill!" is, at the same time, extremely hesitant to return to their medical job (not a caregiver, currently furloughed) due to concerns about catching COVID-19  

 

[Doug B]

If you are wearing an N95 mask with a valve, you should wear some other mask or fabric over it as well. You are protected without the extra layer, but the valve means on exhale you are potentially exposing others if you have it and don’t know it.

Is the exhalation filtered through the valve? Or no?

 

[The Commish]

Is the exhalation filtered through the valve? Or no?

Took one of ours apart.  The answer to this appears to be "no".  I see no filtration mechanism in the exhalation valve.  

 

[tangfoot]

The only places that will meet phase one reopening criteria are the places where cases are declining. This isn't some hidden secret.

Cases are up we shouldn't reopen!!!!

I don’t know of any place in the world where cases are declining.  I see the numbers go up every single day, everywhere.

Are you talking about a decline in the rate of increase? Because that’s a very different thing than what you said above. 

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Just heard Jacksonville FL re-opening its beaches.

 

[JAA]

Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health

 

[Mr Anonymous]

I don’t know of any place in the world where cases are declining.  I see the numbers go up every single day, everywhere.

Are you talking about a decline in the rate of increase? Because that’s a very different thing than what you said above. 

Really?

Ok I guess, if I need to be more clear. There are many states which have been declining in new daily cases and deaths. They will soon hit the benchmarks required to be in phase one. The states that don't meet those benchmarks won't. This is thankfully the end to blanket measures. 

These measurements are based on rate - sustained declining trajectory.

 

[Death Bytes]

Really?

Ok I guess, if I need to be more clear. There are many states which have been declining in new daily cases and deaths. They will soon hit the benchmarks required to be in phase one. The states that don't meet those benchmarks won't. This is thankfully the end to blanket measures. 

What blanket measures? I see 50 different states doing 50 different things. 

 

[Doug B]

The only places that will meet phase one reopening criteria are the places where cases are declining. This isn't some hidden secret.

Cases are up we shouldn't reopen!!!!

There are two ways the red can be reckoned, and they lead to very different decision-making:

a) Where the overall number of active, ongoing cases is decreasing day by day.

b) Where daily counts of new confirmed cases is decreasing day by day. 

 

[JAA]

Speak for your self. I could not handle 2-3 more months off. I am not even sure I can handle what has happened already. I have yet to see any unemployment money and those that have say the extra $600.00 a check is not there. My opinion on what I can handle may change if I see the unemployment money I was told I would get.

You can.  You absolutely can handle it.  Not only that, I know you will.  No joke, you absolutely can and will.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

What blanket measures? I see 50 different states doing 50 different things. 

The national stay at home directive that many states have adopted and adapted. We now have universal standards that clearly won't be followed by all. But for the ones that do it will generate plenty of pressure on the states that don't. No governor should have their entire state on lockdown when they meet the standards set forth yesterday.

 

[Sand]

So should I just go lick door knobs at the hospital now and get it over with? Asking for 310 million friends, TIA

If they go through with this COVID passport I think we'd be shocked at how many people will do just that thinking they will be fine and want the "freedom passport".  Disaster in the making there.

 

[Keerock]

I don't believe one thing China has reported.  Initial information, numbers tested, positives, deaths... not one thing.  China SAYS they've successfully contained the virus.  I'm not buying any of it.  Maybe they have and maybe they haven't, but I'll never take their word for it.  

True. But either way, there is no good news for us.

If they've contained it, then in order for us to do the same, we'd need the draconian measures they can' do that go against our constitutional rights.

If they haven't contained it, even with the draconian measures they can use, then how the hell are we supposed to contain it? 

You're assuming I believe that they have instituted "draconian measures".  Again... I don't believe one thing they say.  Let's use more trustworthy countries as examples.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

New cases are a function of testing. The hard metrics are hospitalizations, intubations and deaths. You can get a decline in new cases by just not testing anyone. Which is exactly what the initial response was by the federal government, by the way. Don't want to see any new cases? Don't test anyone. Voila, decline.

 

[JAA]

Given that this board is mostly full of educated, reasonably financially well off users that can handle another 2-3 months of quarantine, it's no surprise that the sentiment skews toward that course of action with disdain for those that suggest something different. But keep in mind that we are almost all very lucky and there are a lot of unlucky people in this country that will not survive if we stay locked down for 2-3 more months. Some people would rather take a chance getting the virus than take a chance starving. Try to feel sorry for them and understand their point of view. Just my 

I am okay with anyone non-essential who wants to gamble getting it... as long as they can't win an insurance claim or get government assistance if they get COVID-19.

When non-essential behavior results in hospitals being overwhelmed, that results in essential workers not having hospitalization available to them when they get and need it (and they will get it... they're the ones taking us towards herd immunity, despite how negative that sounds).

So this gamble these people want to take doesn't just risk their own well being. It risks essential workers well being as well. People who gamble with the well being of others should NOT benefit from insurance or government safety nets.

So go ahead and gamble... as long as NO hospital bed has your name on it when you need it. 

When they get it, how do we stop them from giving it to someone else?

 

[rcam]

The national stay at home directive that many states have adopted and adapted. We now have universal standards that clearly won't be followed by all. But for the ones that do it will generate plenty of pressure on the states that don't. No governor should have their entire state on lockdown when they meet the standards set forth yesterday.

There's been a national stay at home order? I wasn't aware of anything official. Link?

 

[Mr Anonymous]

There are two ways the red can be reckoned, and they lead to very different decision-making:

a) Where the overall number of active, ongoing cases is decreasing day by day.

b) Where daily counts of new confirmed cases is decreasing day by day. 

That's probably why they made it a 14 day window of decline. And if it spurs more testing by a governor eager to show their numbers are rising, that increased testing aspect is a good thing, right?