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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
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Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Definitely some merit to this possibility. I believe we will know one way or another and possibly soon. The process of going back with coroners to look at earlier deaths has just now begun in earnest.
jamny
Footballguy
Roy L Fewks
Footballguy
Your last sentence tends to contradict your first sentence.
If the tide was truly turning, then you wouldn't need to ask why Nevada, Wisconsin another states have not joined the "tide."
Keerock
Footballguy
I just got both at Sam's Club this past weekend. Curbside pickup. Had to order 2 days in advance, but was otherwise easy.
Keerock
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
But beaches man...
New: Study of 318 outbreaks in China found transmission occurred out-of-doors in only one, involving just 2 cases. Most occurred in home or public transport. Raises key chance for states to move services outdoors (religious, gym classes, restaurants, etc). https://medrxiv.org/content/10.110
New: Study of 318 outbreaks in China found transmission occurred out-of-doors in only one, involving just 2 cases. Most occurred in home or public transport. Raises key chance for states to move services outdoors (religious, gym classes, restaurants, etc). https://medrxiv.org/content/10.110
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Because this literally broke this morning. If Michigan is preparing to start open some businesses, the excuse being made in Wisconsin and especially Nevada to stay closed will hold no weight as they both have far less severe situations. Both governors are trying to lean on other states as a lead but now even those states they've been leaning on, including California have begun easing restrictions. Their excuses are vanishing at an accelerating pace. The "we're just following such and such state" is a card they'll no longer be able to play.
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Redwes25
Footballguy
I would think unlikely but definately worth getting anti-body test when widely available. If you did get it and had mild symptoms and recovered like that it is good news for you and your wife.
shader
Footballguy
No one is dismissing ideas. We are looking at them skeptically. The innocent question "hey I may have had it in January, what do you guys think" is fine. I don't think anyone that presents that question is getting "dismissed".
But HERE is the issue. There are a number of people pushing ideas in here that ALSO have an agenda. That agenda is that we should open up the economy. This agenda may not apply to you.
This is not necessarily a political agenda, but instead an agenda that our economy needs to be re-opened. That argument is not unique to this website, but is an argument that is all over the internet. People that have this agenda often believe the following:
1. They say the CFR is probably very low, closer to that of the flu
2. They are quick to latch onto drugs that have not been tested and gone through the trial process. They will say things like "a doctor in New York had 100% success rate with hydroxychloroquine".
3. They are quick to believe any studies that imply that we've reached or are close to reaching herd immunity.
4. They are quick to believe any studies that imply that the virus is far more widespread than we believe.
5. They are noticeably not so quick to believe the official word from the WHO/CDC and are usually quick to ridicule those organizations that have done so much in this fight.
I don't have an issue with any of the above beliefs. If someone feels that way, lets discuss it. But when you're using these as a rationale for opening up the country, THAT IS WHEN I HAVE A PROBLEM.
I think your point is well made and I'll make sure that in the future I try not to dismiss anyone's ideas. But this is a deadly idea and there are a LOT OF PEOPLE that want to open it up because of fake crap that they read on the internet. I don't know where you live, but you may not be all that worried about it. I live in Tennessee and the governor wants to start opening things up next week. So forgive me if I take this crap seriously and at times don't want to be polite and kind and understanding of all beliefs, including those that are being pushed by those that think this is a big overblown flu.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
You're going to have to start deleting and editing some posts.
A lot of them.
"That's impossible"
"Right wing"
"Conspiracies"
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shader
Footballguy
@Ksquared, Mr A is a perfect example of what I was talking about. Statements like "their excuses are vanishing at an accelerating pace" shows that his mind is made up.
My mind is absolutely not made up. But until the science establishes it, which it hasn't, the quarantines and social distancing should continue.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Lol, who the heck's mind isn't made up that some appropriate businesses should be reopening? Even Gretchen Whitmer has conceded that.
That's all people like myself and others have been calling for. Yet you continue to try and assign thoughts and paint with broad strokes. You imply that we want some free for all reopening and that's never been further from the truth. I was right here posting dozens of links for people to buy masks a MONTH AGO. And look where we are today, one of the common restrictions in place for many businesses to be able to reopen is the wearing of masks by employees and customers.
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Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
Gov. Cuomo announcing the results of a 3,000 person antibody test. Estimates that approximately 14% of the state has antibodies.
shader
Footballguy
Rough calculations would translate to 2.7 million having had the virus in New York State.
Or a .7% death rate as things stand now.
I don't understand their obsession with using concrete, because it breaks really easily, leading to massive potholes, which they "repair" with water/other stuff in the hole, meaning the stuff comes out more easily. Small wonder why Michigan's roads are often at or near the bottom of road quality rankings.
Yet we have tons of boat ramps closed of all things.....ridiculous. Can't get much more socially distant than on a boat.
The Commish
Footballguy
um....did the PSF get officially shut down or something? 90% of the last twoish pages belongs there. 
I AM glad people are finally acknowledging that things could have been here well before Late Jan, early Feb though. As I stated in the PSF a month or so ago (at least it seems like it was that long ago), in that mindnumbingly dumb "death rate" tangent, at this point, "death rate" is going to be a guess this round...no idea when it ACTUALLY got here and was the cause of death for many who were diagnosed wrongly with something else.
I AM glad people are finally acknowledging that things could have been here well before Late Jan, early Feb though. As I stated in the PSF a month or so ago (at least it seems like it was that long ago), in that mindnumbingly dumb "death rate" tangent, at this point, "death rate" is going to be a guess this round...no idea when it ACTUALLY got here and was the cause of death for many who were diagnosed wrongly with something else.
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Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
Yes, he estimated 0.55% with the caveat that "deaths at home" weren't included. 0.7% would seem about right given those additional deaths.
Thoughts on how that impacts any decisions?
Ksquared
Footballguy
But I believe your previous post to this indicates your mind is made up in many areas and a lot of it is related to your political bias. I have tried to stay out of the politics of this and you are correct that positions have been assigned to ideas by a political affiliation. We all need to evaluate the information we have and try to remove the outside bias influences as much as possible. I am an engineer so I think in terms of hypothesis and theory development. My main point is we do not know enough yet to reject legitimate possibilities because they do not fit our preconceived bias ... especially if it is related to a political position (on both sides). Politics IMO is the opposite of a scientific approach and has to be removed as much as possible.
Because one political group grabbed a hold of a position early in this crisis, it should not keep us from thoroughly evaluating other positions as we continue to gain in the scientific knowledge of this virus. We have to adapt since this truly is a novel virus and do not really understand all the details about it.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
I didn't come in here every day, so forgive if this has all been discussed.
I can't recall the site, but the genome mapping project one that had mapped the virus's location according to lab samples... Did that get updated to show that the virus was present in the US prior to late January? Or was it otherwise debunked in general?
I can't recall the site, but the genome mapping project one that had mapped the virus's location according to lab samples... Did that get updated to show that the virus was present in the US prior to late January? Or was it otherwise debunked in general?
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
FWIW, all of these governors are in very difficult positions trying to determine the right way and time to re-open given the paucity of testing. And so I have been doing a little thought experiment along the lines of what Fauci said early on about: if we do our job well, we will appear to have over-reacted. In this case, it seems to me that governors are in a very similar situation in that they, too, are balancing a similar risk-reward strategy in which one week too early could make ALL the difference. As such, my thought experiment would suggest that the right time to re-open is when about 80%+ think you should have re-opened already - because the populace sees all/most of the upside, but very little of the downside. Does that make sense to anyone other than me?
shader
Footballguy
I think you have to include the deaths at home. Also, if you assume 2.7 million people have it, a number of those will still die over the next 1-2 weeks. Let's say 500/day die over next 2 weeks, that's another 7k deaths. I mean, we're looking at something 7-12 times worse than the flu. I think that's kind of been the assumption of governments all along, so I don't see how this really changes anything from a policy perspective, but that's just me. I'm sure some will disagree.
the moops
Footballguy
Looking forward to December outdoor gym classes here in the Twin Cities!
:brrrr:
shader
Footballguy
jplvr
Footballguy
About 3 pages ago, some guy seemed lost, posting and cheering on state poll numbers regarding the election.um....did the PSF get officially shut down or something? 90% of the last twoish pages belongs there.
I AM glad people are finally acknowledging that things could have been here well before Late Jan, early Feb though. As I stated in the PSF a month or so ago (at least it seems like it was that long ago), in that mindnumbingly dumb "death rate" tangent, at this point, "death rate" is going to be a guess this round...no idea when it ACTUALLY got here and was the cause of death for many who were diagnosed wrongly with something else.
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GF already got her test back: negative. Probably just a sinus infection.
Looks like people worried about coming into contact with people outdoors is unnecessary going forward. I might be a civil disobedient if they don’t open up the beaches here. Sure, I’m not hugging anyone, shaking hands, or even trying to walk right next to someone, but I’m going to the park, beach, etc. Stay in your bubble if you disagree.
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Doug B
Footballguy
Easy-to-find toilet paper returned here the weekend before Easter ... but not at every store. Have to ask around locally and see what places are doing the best job staying stocked with paper and at the same time not getting overrun with shoppers. Around here, that's the local WalMart Neighborhood Markets. Will likely be different in your area.
Our WalMart Neighborhood Markets also have hand soap now (still no sanitizer). But you can certainly get by with any kind of bar soap, or even dish soap, shampoo, etc. All will wash your hands just fine.
...
What I can't find locally yet is isopropyl alcohol and/or hydrogen peroxide. Would like to order online, maybe, but not if it's going to take a month to come in.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
It makes total sense. A lot of people including myself have also warned of and criticized governors whose immediate reaction to the guidelines was to reopen before the criteria was met. Above all else people want some direction. The Nevada governor set no standards for what it will take to reopen ANYTHING. No one here that I know is calling for a return to February and for everything to open tomorrow. What would be nice is some consistency and common sense. We have Whitmer saying you can't even mow your lawn and then on a dime she's talking about it being time for some businesses to reopen. What people want most of all is a plan with some specifics from their leaders. Very few are providing that. And that goes for governors on the reopen and stay closed side.
Doug B
Footballguy
Yeah, I didn't see anything objectionable in the NYT article, either. Just pushing the timeline back maybe 3 weeks.
JaxBill
Footballguy
WalMart Neighborhood Markets had best record around here too. Regular supermarket had worst.
boilerdave
Footballguy
Yes they are bad. There has been a lot of patching done and a noticeable improvement since the Covid shutdown started.
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Ok, this made me laugh as it just seems like the conclusion drawn is similar to Mike Tice's analysis that: Vikings' winning was highly correlated with Randy Moss getting 40%+ of the receiving targets.* He thus concluded that in order to produce wins he should force feed Moss the ball to ensure he'd get 40%+ of the targets. Guess what didn't happen after Moss was force fed targets?
So, to be perfectly clear, just because few transmissions occurred out-of-doors doesn't mean that we can simply move ALL of our indoor behaviors outside and expect the same results. Which, I suspect you know...but still it kinda seems like you don't. Because if you believe that, I have a study for you: VERY high positive correlation between elementary school-children and weight. Specifically, the heavier the child the more knowledge they possess. So, should we fatten up our children? OR do we conclude that maybe weight is highly correlated with age and age is highly correlated with knowledge? IOW, 5th graders are heavier, older, and more knowledgeable than 2nd graders. Correlation <> causation...even while I do think/understand there are some real benefits to outdoor activities (higher heat, humidity, and UV light) over indoor ones that MAY prove important in slowing the spread.
* don't quote me on the exact statistic as I doing this from memory and too lazy to look it up
Keerock
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
It's closer to the flu than many thought. Nobody said it had to be exact. There have been some bad flu years. Also people at risk get flu shots limiting the death rate. The problems with CV wasn't death rate but the asymptomatic spread, the fact that vulnerable can't get vaccinated, and the fact that we didn't know anything about it. The lockdowns were still justified imo but I think when we look back years later we'll figure out the true death rate and realize it was basically the flu that we knew nothing about.
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
2-3 weeks prior to the lockdown a lot of the tech companies started having people work from home. That's what likely saved the Bay Area.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
New York's antibody survey indicates this virus is roughly 7x - 12x deadlier than the flu.
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Agree. Not what any of us want, but we have to understand that most of these so-called "leaders" aren't really leaders. Indeed, most "leaders" in all walks of life are not truly "leaders" they are managers. Leaders do what you described above, but the political cost of leading on this issue is significant. What I think you are seeing is many are taking a fast-follower approach UNLESS, as is the case in Michigan, there is real public outcry to act sooner/differently. This isn't unique to governors, business leaders would rather fail together than risk failing alone. It's alot easier to say to your board "everyone's stock is down because no one saw this coming" than it is to stick your nexk out against the crowd and risk being terminated IF your prediction doesn't come AND doesn't come on the timeline you predicted. Heck, the only thing I disliked about The Big Short is that it made the dumb money out to be entirely dumb, when in fact alot of that dumb money read the personal risk-reward EXACTLY right. Football coaches do this ALL the time when they punt on 4th down too often rather than look like fools - particularly noteworthy when it is being done solely to ensure the margin of defeat isn't TOO egregious.
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Doug B
Footballguy
Quoted for truth. Skepticism is not ridicule.
For myself - if I am skeptical of an against-the-grain finding, I have tried to make sure I have at least explained why I don't buy into the against-the-grain finding. I'm sure my hit rate has not been 100% in doing this, though.
Also, quoted for truth. As an addendum -- credentials don't make truth, or even really indicate anything the "truthiness" of a statement. Lots of people with stacks of PhDs peddle unsupported claims as close-enough "facts".
jplvr
Footballguy
Target is good most of the time here. I try to stay out of Walmart, and really Target as well, but the gf shops at Target religiously, it seems, and they always have paper towels. I stocked up on TP about a month before things got crazy, but somehow neglected paper towels. That's been good for me as I have used cloth napkins and towels more frequently, but I really don't have the fear some people have in overuse of paper products, other than questioning pine plantations vs. deciduous forests.
I'm about halfway done with my hand sanitizer for the truck, and of course I don't see that, alcohol, or even aloe to make my own anywhere.
Do you agree that number is a LOT closer to Flu death rates before results of antibody tests came out? It's not justaflu because this was novel virus not because it's deadlier.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Sweden is fascinating to watch IMO. Maybe their media isn't pumping death porn 24/7 because pictures I see from there seem totally normal. Most people without masks, drinking beers in pubs, shopping, gathering in parks, etc. I get that their death per M is higher than Denmark, but it's less than the UK, Italy, France, Spain, Belgium, etc. Not sure how it will work out for them or if they're already past peak like they've said, but I'm glad some country is trying something different to help gauge counter approaches to lockdowns.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11465420/sweden-still-has-fewer-new-cases-despite-no-lockdown/
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11465420/sweden-still-has-fewer-new-cases-despite-no-lockdown/
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Everyone has a political bias. The way to deal with it is to acknowledge it openly, not pretend it doesn't exist.
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
We scored 96 rolls for $65 at a local custodial supply store a few weeks ago. Wife found out about it on the Nexdtdoor app.
themeanmachine
Footballguy
I work for a tech company based the Bay Area, though I don't live there. Just looked back through my emails - my company started mandatory work from home on March 11. And I remember thinking at the time that we were late, as I know Google and many others started at least a week or two prior. I think many tech companies were very on top of what was happening and proactive about WFH, far in advance of government mandates.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Justaflu bros won't ever be right. This is far more contagious than the flu. The problem is the "justaflu" label gets applied far too broadly. Justaflu bros are the extreme and low populated group of people who are congregating in the tens and hundreds demanding we open everything today and that this was all a hoax. A segment here and in other places wants to toss anyone who disagrees with them into that same bin. What's really funny and goes to your point is the fact that scientists and doctors have used the flu to compare and contrast from the start. Yet when anyone cited them, they drew the "justaflu" label from people here like everyone knows who. Now there are literally people from the CDC and the medical community admitting there is a likelihood many Covid-19 cases were mistaken as the flu. Just another example why painting others with broad strokes and "when in doubt - name call" is such a pathetic form of discussion.
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McBokonon
Footballguy
There's reason to be skeptical of that particular study - performed in China, under-enrollment and it ended early as a result. There's several more that Gilead is running stateside.
shader
Footballguy
I just read the following. No idea if that may or may not change things slightly.
“Cuomo noted that the survey was preliminary and limited by other factors. He said the testing targeted people who were out in society shopping, meaning that they may be more likely to be infected than people isolating at home.”
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![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
Worst flu season in the past 10 years was 61K deaths. We'll hit 50K coronavirus deaths by tomorrow and we'll top 60K by the end of the month.
You're wrong, shady.
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