Dezbelief
Footballguy
We locked eyes for a long moment neither blinking knowing where we each stood and neither was going to be swayed. Then he changed the subject. I didn't bring it back up, yet.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
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popeye
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Make sure the verbiage is medically meaningful. The standard “if I have a terminal condition/in a vegetative state, with no meaningful hope of recovery, do not prolong my life by artificial means”, doesn’t really cut it. The relevant question is: what would you want done if you suffer a cardiopulmonary arrest - resuscitate or not? POLST forms do this really well.
The Commish
Footballguy
Can't help but notice over and over and over and over again, the people complaining about being locked down are leading the charge on "I ain't gonna wear no mask" shtick.....at least in my anecdotal world. Congrats...YOU are the reason we are stuck with the whack-a-mole approach. This is the result of your selfishness and unwillingness to think of others. Well done.
Our government (at all levels) needs to grow a spine and require mask usage in public.
Our government (at all levels) needs to grow a spine and require mask usage in public.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I have an old friend who has asthma and he's going back to work as a bartender in a Quarter dive bar. Basically his family, including older parents, is cutting off contact with him. It's hard. When told there are people who survive and have serious lung damage he says he knows and it would kill him due to his asthma so that's really not an issue for him. It's a side job for extra income, and the really dumb thing is practically no one is even in the Quarter these days. At a minimum the collateral damage is painful to watch.
Todem
Footballguy
Wearing masks in public should absolutely be mandatory. It’s insane. Wear the ******* mask until we get a vaccine for this thing.
WHAT IS SO HARD!!!!!
I am blown away at the new heights of utter stupidity we have gone too. All led by our fearless POTUS.
How he is not setting the example of wearing a mask in public is beyond repulsive. Utter ####show the White House. So freaking aggravated about it.
We locked down for months......for nothing other than to get the hospitals ready for what we are seeing now. Because dumb people are being brainwashed into thinking this is some kind of left wing conspiracy or this is not as bad or real.....I mean WTF is going on.
Then the protests....and all the mass gatherings......OH MY GOD.
Anyway rant over.
WHAT IS SO HARD!!!!!
I am blown away at the new heights of utter stupidity we have gone too. All led by our fearless POTUS.
How he is not setting the example of wearing a mask in public is beyond repulsive. Utter ####show the White House. So freaking aggravated about it.
We locked down for months......for nothing other than to get the hospitals ready for what we are seeing now. Because dumb people are being brainwashed into thinking this is some kind of left wing conspiracy or this is not as bad or real.....I mean WTF is going on.
Then the protests....and all the mass gatherings......OH MY GOD.
Anyway rant over.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Is this shocking to you? There has to be tons of folks that have not been tested and are not going to be tested anytime soon, that's reality.
As I am reading the post again, you're saying that...let's use round numbers. In Florida where I am, could be easily 1 Million walking around Asymptomatic?
Millions have already had it and moved on but have not been tested, is that where you were going with this? I think I might agree with you if I am understanding you.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I love you my fellow Phinfan but this is loaded with opinions. I know folks who would post this and get slaughtered if it was supportive or opposite of your viewpoint.
At the same time, I know the area you are in and I might feel much different there vs the Martin/Palm Beach County line, it really feels very safe around here in general.
I understand how you feel, I would encourage you to try and get out for a weekend or 4-5 days from South Florida, you need some fresh air. Think Panhandle(friends went, loved it) and get away for a little while, take the family, take your masks, pack up some supplies, grab the kids and go be a family. Get away from the TV, turn it the bleep OFF! I haven't watched TV in almost 2 weeks, and I couldn't be happier.
Come join us in the Otis thread, you need to be working on your immune system/health so you don't catch this virus
Try and relax Chief, you're a good man with a good family, this is no time to panic.
jamny
Footballguy
I didn't expect this large amount of people to reject wearing masks and ignore social distancing recommendations when not wearing one. Yes there are those that refuse to wear one because of their "rights" but what I am seeing, even here in NYC which obviously leans the opposite direction from those people, is an attitude that a mask isn't needed anymore. I've seen so many graduation parties around my neighborhood with front yards filled with people. The park is packed with people, maybe half wearing masks nowadays. It's no longer divided along party lines. Even here in NY, there are plenty of people who seem to think this is over. We follow it closely in this thread but the vast amount of people aren't keeping up. And yes, the problem starts at the top.
mr roboto
Footballguy
Complete failure at the top. I’m sorry but it’s unconscionable that the POTUS/Administration hasn’t lead in this better.
TLEF316
Footballguy
There was never any doubt that this was going to happen. Yes, NY and NJ and some other areas caught it first. Could leadership have done more? Yeah, probably. Could individuals have done more? Probably (mask wearing was not required in NJ until quite a few weeks into this thing) But I dont think we knew what we had back in Feb/March.
But back in like April, people in other areas were like "we only have x cases per 10,000 residents . There's no reason we can't go to the beach/go to bars/go to church". So once leadership authorized "cautious re-openings", it was party time.
Combine that with the fact that the media moved onto BLM over the past couple of weeks....and here we are.
The fact that people thought they were in the clear because their state wasn't hit hard back in April is mind boggling. Not wearing a mask is absurd.
It's going to be a LONG year, especially because I think that all Fall/Winter sports are going to be cancelled.
People are just the absolute worst.
But back in like April, people in other areas were like "we only have x cases per 10,000 residents . There's no reason we can't go to the beach/go to bars/go to church". So once leadership authorized "cautious re-openings", it was party time.
Combine that with the fact that the media moved onto BLM over the past couple of weeks....and here we are.
The fact that people thought they were in the clear because their state wasn't hit hard back in April is mind boggling. Not wearing a mask is absurd.
It's going to be a LONG year, especially because I think that all Fall/Winter sports are going to be cancelled.
People are just the absolute worst.
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I've been to several peoples houses for Memorial Day, birthdays, graduations, Fathers Day. Both friends and family. All parties mostly outdoors. No masks. Never even dawned on me to wear masks at a family members house. I think they are pointless to wear at parties where everyone is congregating, talking, and touching the same things for a few hours. I wear masks in public when shopping though.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Provide the bars with some financial assistance and shut them down. My brother's fiance is a bartender at Armature Works in Tampa. It's like an open air concept with multiple restaurants and bars all in a giant "warehouse." She said half the damn staff has it already after being open for three weeks.
Kilgore Trout
Footballguy
First of all, I am on your side that this should be taken seriously. But the facts also show that the number of deaths per day has been going down, and I assume that the scientists that are working on this model have taken this into account. The 7-day moving average has us at 620 deaths a day, and my rough math tells me that this is close to the rate that was used in the model. For your prediction about the end of July to come true, we would have to be at around 1500 deaths a day from now until the end of July. If that does happen, we would likely be averaging well over 2000 by the end of July (since we are starting off at the 620 average). I thought it would be worse that it is right now given how many states opened up in the middle of May, but I know we still have a long way to go.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Similar place, but on a smaller scale, in Lakeland where I am is closing for a few days due to multiple cases as well.
The fact of the matter is, were seeing a spike in states that are opening because young people who were locked in are finally allowed to congregate again. NYC just started phase 2 this week. I bet you see a similar spike here soon. To think NYC is doing it right and won't see a spike like these Southern states is foolhardy IMO.
Open up and youngsters who are barely affected and have been locked indoors for months will congregate and it will spread.
Open up and youngsters who are barely affected and have been locked indoors for months will congregate and it will spread.
Osaurus
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
The IMHE model being run by "scientists" gives the model legitimacy that it doesn't deserve. No scientist has any idea what governors, mayors, the president, and people are going to do. Since they don't know that, they can't accurately project what is going to happen. They are just feeding numbers and assumptions into a machine.
What we do know is that while yes, deaths are on the decline, cases were on the decline too, until about 2 weeks ago. Deaths are a lagging indicator so this isn't surprising.
Now that cases are rising sharply in many areas, deaths will begin rising sharply again within the next week or two.
So unless we get some immediate lockdown and safety measures in hotspot areas, deaths will begin rising again. No biggie for the IMHE model though, they'll just run a revision.
beer 30
Footballguy
So 50%? What's the point? It's all or nothing IMO if you're going to be hanging out in groups regardless if they are families and/or close friends. Unless it's folks you live with and know their whereabouts 24/7, treat everyone like they have it. Or treat everyone like they don't have it...either way.
My opinion of course, just seems silly to wear a mask in public but gatherings of friends & family are ok to go maskless
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Help me understand. How did you conclude that attending multiple parties is low risk?
While outdoors is better than indoors, any event where people are congregating increases the risk of spread. Did you know the age and medical history of all the partygoers?
Todem
Footballguy
We are going to Ft Meyers for 4th of July weekend. baseball tourney. Looking forward to it.I love you my fellow Phinfan but this is loaded with opinions. I know folks who would post this and get slaughtered if it was supportive or opposite of your viewpoint.
At the same time, I know the area you are in and I might feel much different there vs the Martin/Palm Beach County line, it really feels very safe around here in general.
I understand how you feel, I would encourage you to try and get out for a weekend or 4-5 days from South Florida, you need some fresh air. Think Panhandle(friends went, loved it) and get away for a little while, take the family, take your masks, pack up some supplies, grab the kids and go be a family. Get away from the TV, turn it the bleep OFF! I haven't watched TV in almost 2 weeks, and I couldn't be happier.
Come join us in the Otis thread, you need to be working on your immune system/health so you don't catch this virus
Try and relax Chief, you're a good man with a good family, this is no time to panic.
My only frustration at its core is the selfish behavior of those who refuse to simply wear a mask in public places (restaurants, shopping, etc). Even if it is not required in your area.....I think it is foolish not to simply wear one until we have a legit vaccine for this thing and try to do your part to slow the spread.
That is really all my point is. Whatever reasoning one may have not to wear a mask.....well good luck. But if we all just did it the spread can easily be slowed.
I want business’s to be open, I am all about that. We can’t stay shuttered inside in fear (if you are a lower risk person). But the blatant disregard of people not taking simple and easy precautions to protect not only themselves but others is beyond comprehension.
I am not panicking at all. I am worried about my parents, my sister in-law who is a kidney transplant recipient (basically no immune system due to anti rejection medication).
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jamny
Footballguy
Yeah, I don't get that. The only family members or friends I've seen have been my MiL 3 times and wore a mask at all times, my BiL once and we stayed at least 6 feet apart (no mask) and a friend, where we touched elbows (laughingly) and stayed apart, no mask. I would not go to any party right now.
moleculo
Footballguy
why is scientists in quotation marks? It feels like you are trying to convey sarcasm, implying that they aren't really scientists, or at least people you don't think are worthy of the title. That leads me to think that you are rejecting science as a whole.
Maybe it's just me, but I have a hard time getting past that. I try to read the rest of the post, but keep coming back to, "does @shader not believe in science? how can I take anything else he says if he doesn't?" and it makes it hard for me to focus on anything else.
I've been to my Dad's house on both Memorial Day and Father's Day. Nobody wore masks and he invited us.
Been to a friend's child's birthday party last week. No masks. Even the grandparents there weren't wearing masks.
A party this upcoming Saturday for a cousin's child's birthday party. 30+ invited. Doubt anyone will be wearing masks.
And we are throwing a graduation/birthday party for my son next Friday night. About 20 people.
Its DEFINITELY a risk. One we and every single person who attended these parties was and is willing to take.
Social gatherings are allowed
shader
Footballguy
The guys behind the IMHE model get very little respect from me, thus the quotes. It's as simple as that. I've logged way too many posts in this thread where I've defaulted to the scientists and experts at the WHO and CDC, and where I"ve shared epidemiologist's views from around the world. I'm 100% in support of the scientists that are studying this virus. But hey, feel free to attack posters. It's a good look.
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beer 30
Footballguy
moleculo
Footballguy
why? What makes you think your models and assumptions are equivalent (or better) than theirs? What are your qualifications that give you standing to criticize the IHME?
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
You didn’t. What risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission do you think attending multiple parties poses?
shader
Footballguy
Link to where I've posted models?
Their record isn't good. They are simply making mathematical projections. Now it's not all their fault, because the spread of the virus is due to factors that have nothing to do with science. You can't scientifically predict which states are going to go into lockdown, how many citizens will decide not to wear masks, etc.
Kilgore Trout
Footballguy
The IMHE isn't the only model. FiveThirtyEight has a page with several models, and most of them are inline with the IMHE model (this only goes through August 1st). I was just pointing out that your non-scientific prediction of 180,000 deaths by the end of July is not supported by the current numbers, and would require a significant rise in the amount of deaths over the next couple of weeks. Not that it can't happen, but you are just throwing numbers out.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
How are you certain all the partygoers know their risk? What about the people they regularly contact after the party?I've been to my Dad's house on both Memorial Day and Father's Day. Nobody wore masks and he invited us.
Been to a friend's child's birthday party last week. No masks. Even the grandparents there weren't wearing masks.
A party this upcoming Saturday for a cousin's child's birthday party. 30+ invited. Doubt anyone will be wearing masks.
And we are throwing a graduation/birthday party for my son next Friday night. About 20 people.
Its DEFINITELY a risk. One we and every single person who attended these parties was and is willing to take.
Social gatherings are allowed
Do you believe the elderly partygoers have a high risk of complications if they contract COVID?
I’m not trying to give you a hard time, really just trying to understand your perspective.
shader
Footballguy
Nobody was FORCED to attend. Anyone could have worn a mask if they CHOSE. Am I supposed to be responsible for every person on the planet? I chose the risk I was willing to deal with, they did as well. When I goto public places I wear a mask.
There are other risks I am NOT willing to take. Going to a bar? No thanks. Movies? Pass. Sporting event? Maybe next year.
beer 30
Footballguy
This is where I think we are disconnected...how are any of those activities different then going to a soiree with family & friends?
One is surrounded by tons of people I don't know and the other is surrounded by a few dozen people I know and love. The latter im willing to take the risk for.
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Kilgore Trout
Footballguy
Your off the cuff prediction has no basis at all. Models look at current data and trends and use science to try to and make a prediction. If more data comes in to show that their model is underpredicting, they readjust the model. Thats how models work.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
You definitely can’t be responsible for everyone. I’m just having a hard time wrapping my head around why you take more precautions around strangers than the people you care about. In addition to assuming they’re well informed on all things COVID, it appears you believe they have a lower risk of contracting/suffering from the virus than the general population.
beer 30
Footballguy
I'm not sure the risk is that much different but you do you
I'm not trying to play mask police. I'd wear a mask to either.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Makes sense, but I still don’t understand why you won’t wear a mask around them, given you seem to believe masks do something to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
My original point was if I'm surrounded by them for a few hours congregating, talking, laughing, touching the same things AT THAT POINT the mask is probably useless.
Are you saying masks provide 100% protection?
shader
Footballguy
I know how models work. I know my prediction has no basis. Because it's a prediction.
I don't put any validity in these models, because they aren't scientific, they are mathematical projections based on assumptions that humans feed into them.
I would never waste time building a projection model, because I have no idea what is going to happen one week from now, much less tomorrow. Neither do the humans at 538, or the humans at the IMHE. They are at the mercy of politicians and a public that has proven to be erratic.
What I can predict is that since cases have exploded over the past 2 weeks, the downturn in deaths will reverse as well. That's why I made a very non-scientific prediction that will definitely turn out to be wrong.
I'm saying the effectiveness of the mask gets closer to 0 the longer you are at a "soiree".I'm not sure the risk is that much different but you do you
I'm not trying to play mask police. I'd wear a mask to either.
Doug B
Footballguy
Indeed.I've been to my Dad's house on both Memorial Day and Father's Day. Nobody wore masks and he invited us.
Been to a friend's child's birthday party last week. No masks. Even the grandparents there weren't wearing masks.
A party this upcoming Saturday for a cousin's child's birthday party. 30+ invited. Doubt anyone will be wearing masks.
And we are throwing a graduation/birthday party for my son next Friday night. About 20 people.
Its DEFINITELY a risk. One we and every single person who attended these parties was and is willing to take.
Social gatherings are allowed
North Texas family shaken after 18 relatives test positive for COVID-19 following surprise birthday party (WWL-TV New Orleans)
LDH links new COVID-19 clusters to New Orleans graduation party; Tigerland bars(WWL-TV New Orleans)
Parties — Not Protests — Are Causing Spikes In Coronavirus (NPR)
Mississippi coronavirus cluster tied to fraternity rush parties (CNN)
Felix's, Tchoup Yard under city scrutiny after hosting Newman grads linked to coronavirus cluster (Times-Picayune/New Orleans Advocate)
Cluster of SLO Co. COVID-19 cases attributed to graduation party (KSBY San Luis Obispo, CA)
California man with coronavirus symptoms infected large family gathering, health officials say (SFGate / San Francisco Chronicle)
moleculo
Footballguy
that, GB, is a model. It may not be mathematically rigorous or based on a scientific principle, but you are making a prediction based on past observations.
predictions are nothing more than results of models. We build models to build more confidence in the predictions. Further, models help us understand the impact of changes - i.e. if we do X, how does that impact the prediction?
worrierking
Footballguy
In the early stages of the pandemic there was a discussion about letting young and healthy get the virus in hopes of increasing herd immunity while trying to protect the elderly and at-risk citizens. The idea was mostly rejected as unsafe. Well, young people have decided to do it anyway. Here's a balanced article from Reason (a libertarian publication).
https://reason.com/2020/06/24/as-covid-19-infections-rise-patients-are-getting-younger/
We'll see if this works out. I'm generally on the optimistic side of the disease, but this is worrisome (I am the Worrierking).
https://reason.com/2020/06/24/as-covid-19-infections-rise-patients-are-getting-younger/
We'll see if this works out. I'm generally on the optimistic side of the disease, but this is worrisome (I am the Worrierking).
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Absolutely not. But I do think they mitigate the risk somewhat - asymptomatic transmission that might occur from talking and laughing in close quarters specifically. And there are other measures you could take to ensure you aren’t touching all the same things, or at least sanitize your hands frequently if you do.
Very few things are all or none, and we each have to decide the risks we’re willing to take for ourselves and those around us. I’m just trying to understand how risk appraisal can be so highly variable.
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