They continue to be in a plateau. Older people ended up getting it in the second wave shooting up deathsWhatever happened in Iran ? They were all over the news. Then they weren't.
I don't know the specifics. I know they just started allowing pubs to re-open a week or two ago. Their numbers will definitely rise over the coming months.When did it end?
There's a disconnect in the collective information, then.Have been chased out of the thread repeatedly over the obvious observation that masks are a distant third place to distancing and hand washing. Do the latter, render masks optional at best.
I'd say there's a disconnect.There's a disconnect in the collective information, then.
While I know no health organization is perfect ... the CDC has been saying for three months that fomites -- publicly-touched objects, "germy" groceries, "dirty" mail/packages, etc. -- don't much spread COVID-19. To the extent where it seems that they've all but eliminated fomites as a vector. Maybe that's an exaggeration, or bad CDC messaging, or something. I don't know.
Instead, it's been consistently hammered home that it's "simple breathing in indoor stale air first, simple breathing in indoor stale air second, simple breathing in indoor stale air third." Because, after all, breath aerosols are said to spread all over the dang place, and linger for hours. Then after that, coughing/sneezing/large droplets in fourth. Then maybe fomites a distant fifth?
If all that's true ... how can handwashing be that much more important than face coverings? Granted, this stuff can change rapidly ... and maybe tomorrow, it'll be "Um ... it was fomites after all". But the "it ain't never fomites" guidance has been going strong for three months plus now.
Yikes. 15% positive too, so it's not just a mass testing issue.Florida reporting over 15k cases today. Good lord.
I don't recall that being a very common prediction but maybe I am misremembering. Not to drift into the thread on the other forum too much but it seems like that was mostly proposed by people who had been consistently downplaying the threat of the virus and the safety precautions needed, sort of a justification on why doing nothing is a valid strategy. "We don't need to shut down so much, just wait 2 months and it will be gone". Alternatively, optimists wishfully thinking the problem would go away.In March the biggest prediction was a summer drop with an incoming second wave in November. This led to a lot of bad policy and early re opening of stupid stuff.
So far as I can gather, the part in red is correct. I've been looking for a good layman's-level read on this for a while, but it's been a challenge -- even the Wikipedia article on "Antibody" is difficult for me to parse.What I have read on this (and I'll let our medical folks jump in if this is bumpkus) is that, even if the anti-bodies aren't present, the body may retain the ability to "recognize" the virus if it recurs and quickly start producing the anti-bodies again. I'm not sure if that was theory, hope, or if that is how human bodies react to other viruses.
Take their "Famously Hot" slogan to another level.I think our next big step in this evolution is colleges opening up in the next month. Just in my backyard (and personal since my kid goes there) the University of SC is getting set to drop 35,000 students on Columbia, SC which is becoming a hotspot for the state now. I don’t see how this is any resemblance of a good idea.
Yup. It was a possibility, but not a given by any means. Like so many other things in the pandemic, naysayers were quick to latch onto any info which enabled a rapid return to business as usual.I don't recall that being a very common prediction but maybe I am misremembering. Not to drift into the thread on the other forum too much but it seems like that was mostly proposed by people who had been consistently downplaying the threat of the virus and the safety precautions needed, sort of a justification on why doing nothing is a valid strategy. "We don't need to shut down so much, just wait 2 months and it will be gone". Alternatively, optimists wishfully thinking the problem would go away.
In my circle of friends, coworkers and acquaintances, and local celebrities, I know more and more who have tested positive. Only 1 death (the 3 members of the Nicaraguan family who all died), a few hospitalized briefly, and most with mild symptoms or asymptomatic. Herd immunity might beat the vaccine in Miami.Yikes. 15% positive too, so it's not just a mass testing issue.
I'm wondering when hospitalizations becomes a "less important" stat? Once the hospitals are full, they won't be able to admit as many. I was reading articles yesterday about hospitals that are having to turn patients away now. At this point, every day that these states wait to lock down is potentially killing hundreds, if not thousands of people....unless citizens band together and do what's smart.
I watched. Horrible.Or surgeon general is a real peach.... wow
Yes -- antiviral treatments that are not vaccines exist. Current treatments for HIV are examples, including some now that act prophylactically**.What if they aren't successful in developing a vaccine and herd immunity isn't possible? Will we be dealing with this forever? Is there any other reason for hope other than a vaccine or herd immunity?
The other avenue is improving treatmentsWhat if they aren't successful in developing a vaccine and herd immunity isn't possible? Will we be dealing with this forever? Is there any other reason for hope other than a vaccine or herd immunity?
Therapeutic treatments are likely to be the first line of defense that's effective. There are quite a few treatment approaches (plasma, monoclonal antibodies, etc) in the works and several are showing promise.What if they aren't successful in developing a vaccine and herd immunity isn't possible? Will we be dealing with this forever? Is there any other reason for hope other than a vaccine or herd immunity?
My very sincere condolences to anyone forced to fly right now because of work or other circumstances.So. Flying is the biggest joke of the pandemic.
Keep your distance, unless you fly American.
I barely get as close to my wife as I do this lady flapping her arms into me as she belts herself in.
Christ, lady...are you part condor!?
Thank you. I support our nursing care design team (think developing guidelines), and as part of my job I would have to go to the field to help implement. I was in awe of what nurses did in "regular times." What you all are doing now is heroic.Seems we have a bunch of nurses visiting this thread.
We are loyal American customers but they have been horrible lo e during this. Delta has been much better with no middle aisle and reverse boarding. In either case. I would not fly if I had to fly coach unless it was absolutely necessary.So. Flying is the biggest joke of the pandemic.
Keep your distance, unless you fly American.
I barely get as close to my wife as I do this lady flapping her arms into me as she belts herself in.
Christ, lady...are you part condor!?
The overdrive immune reaction appears to be one prong. The other big issue are the blood clots that COVID-19 leaves behind (and the #1 reason it ain't the flu), although perhaps that's reasonably addressed with existing medical interventions.Nothing locked up yet, by any stretch, but if we can find a treatment that stops/reverses the RANTES/Cytokine storm this disease suddenly becomes MUCH more manageable.
That wasn't even close to what you were peddling for months in here, but go ahead and make yourself the victim.I was directly accused of trying to get people killed in this thread a couple months ago over this. That post was liked several times.
Have been chased out of the thread repeatedly over the obvious observation that masks are a distant third place to distancing and hand washing. Do the latter, render masks optional at best.
I pointed out this exact thing months ago.I'd say there's a disconnect.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/prevention.html
In the first "Know how it spreads" section, no mention of it spreading on surfaces.
But then the first thing to do to protect the spread in the very next section is to Wash Your Hands.
So ... what do we think is the deal? Why the apparent disconnect here? Bad info? Good info, but bad messaging? Something else?I pointed out this exact thing months ago.I'd say there's a disconnect.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/prevention.html
In the first "Know how it spreads" section, no mention of it spreading on surfaces.
But then the first thing to do to protect the spread in the very next section is to Wash Your Hands.
Our systems were sharing staff within the same geographical divisions. We've made it possible for nurses in Kansas City to go help out in New Orleans, for example.WTH are they going to find extra staff?
I mean, I've always argued that they dont have enough open positions...but if there are always open positions, it might not matter
Yes and no. Low titers (levels) of antibodies usually persist in the blood for longer than a few weeks after initial viral infection. For some infections they’re present for decades. While the anamnestic immune response can ramp up production rapidly upon re-exposure, it’s not a given if antibodies are undetectable. Moreover, it’s unclear if SARS-CoV-2 antibodies will effectively fight off reinfection. It’s likely they will, but the short duration of detectable antibodies may signal our COVID immunity is incomplete.What I have read on this (and I'll let our medical folks jump in if this is bumpkus) is that, even if the anti-bodies aren't present, the body may retain the ability to "recognize" the virus if it recurs and quickly start producing the anti-bodies again. I'm not sure if that was theory, hope, or if that is how human bodies react to other viruses.
I think fomites are mostly not a vector. I think they have stuck with handwashing guidance because it is beneficial for other diseases and they never want to de-emphasize that.So ... what do we think is the deal? Why the apparent disconnect here? Bad info? Good info, but bad messaging? Something else?
There have been a couple articles that have talked about the fact that this isn't going away anytime soon. As in, years. Get used to masks and intermittent lockdowns for the next 2-3 years at least. I'm beginning to believe that's a conservative outlook.What if they aren't successful in developing a vaccine and herd immunity isn't possible? Will we be dealing with this forever? Is there any other reason for hope other than a vaccine or herd immunity?
I could see us having a yearly month-long lockdown in January that is preplanned ahead of time. It being preplanned would help people stock up on what they need and for businesses to adjust as much as possible.There have been a couple articles that have talked about the fact that this isn't going away anytime soon. As in, years. Get used to masks and intermittent lockdowns for the next 2-3 years at least. I'm beginning to believe that's a conservative outlook.
Same.There have been a couple articles that have talked about the fact that this isn't going away anytime soon. As in, years. Get used to masks and intermittent lockdowns for the next 2-3 years at least. I'm beginning to believe that's a conservative outlook.What if they aren't successful in developing a vaccine and herd immunity isn't possible? Will we be dealing with this forever? Is there any other reason for hope other than a vaccine or herd immunity?
Not 100% sure why you consider yourself an expert on this. Personally, given this is a close contact, respiratory droplet virus, I’d put hand washing 3rd and at a minimum none of the three would be a distant anything.I was directly accused of trying to get people killed in this thread a couple months ago over this. That post was liked several times.
Have been chased out of the thread repeatedly over the obvious observation that masks are a distant third place to distancing and hand washing. Do the latter, render masks optional at best.
I think the belief is still primarily droplet spread, with some aerosol (especially superspreaders?), and a little fomite. If it were almost all aerosol, Ro would be closer to that of measles (12+), though certainly other virulence determinants contribute to that number.There's a disconnect in the collective information, then.
While I know no health organization is perfect ... the CDC has been saying for three months that fomites -- publicly-touched objects, "germy" groceries, "dirty" mail/packages, etc. -- don't much spread COVID-19. To the extent where it seems that they've all but eliminated fomites as a vector. Maybe that's an exaggeration, or bad CDC messaging, or something. I don't know.
Instead, it's been consistently hammered home that it's "simple breathing in indoor stale air first, simple breathing in indoor stale air second, simple breathing in indoor stale air third." Because, after all, breath aerosols are said to spread all over the dang place, and linger for hours. Then after that, coughing/sneezing/large droplets in fourth. Then maybe fomites a distant fifth?
If all that's true ... how can handwashing be that much more important than face coverings? Granted, this stuff can change rapidly ... and maybe tomorrow, it'll be "Um ... it was fomites after all". But the "it ain't never fomites" guidance has been going strong for three months plus now.
This isnt entirely true. Pretty sure masks are required in plenty of places. Public transportation being one of them.CNN says in the UK they dont wear masks. How come their numbers are down?
Mutation to a less virulent form and effective antivirals, though I wouldn’t hold my breath for either anytime soon.What if they aren't successful in developing a vaccine and herd immunity isn't possible? Will we be dealing with this forever? Is there any other reason for hope other than a vaccine or herd immunity?
Historically speaking, is mutation more likely to trend toward less virulent than more virulent?Mutation to a less virulent form and effective antivirals, though I wouldn’t hold my breath for either anytime soon.
Trained on PPE/BBP/Infection control annually for 13 years now (just last week finished recent course with COVID training included). Work in ORs where aside from product knowledge, my only job is not to screw up PPE/infectious diease/BBP wise.Not 100% sure why you consider yourself an expert on this. Personally, given this is a close contact, respiratory droplet virus, I’d put hand washing 3rd and at a minimum none of the three would be a distant anything.
Sounds like she did it on purpose, didn’t want to go.I had been quarantining for 2 weeks, my wifes parents were quarantining for 2 weeks, and my brother in laws family was quarantining for 2 weeks so we could all hang out together.
We drove all the way to el paso without going into a single gas station, we peed on the side of the road, etc.
I am good friends with my brother in law and I was looking forward to some social interaction. We were each going to take a few days off work to play some board games, however last night his wife went to a 30 person wedding where no one was wearing masks. So now I am stuck at my wife's parents and my brother in law knows that now he cannot visit.
My brother in laws wife is incredibly selfish, she ruined the week for her husband and he already put the vacation in the system. So now he has to eat the vacation and cannot do anything. Not to mention going to a 30 person wedding is incredibly stupid and puts their family at risk.
I’ve taken plenty of ppe courses myself being in the OR and I certainly wouldn’t consider myself an expert on infectious disease.Trained on PPE annually for 13 years now (just last week finished recent course with COVID training included). Work in ORs where aside from product knowledge, my only job is not to screw up PPE/infectious diease/BBP wise.
I haven't claimed to be an expert but, I mean relative to the vast majority? Probably fair.
eta - I have 2 claims - the argument on the necessity of masks when others are adhered to, and the efficacy of north of 50% of the masks I see in public. Combine the two and the mask wearing dogma is severely over emphasized.
Mutation is random, and most mutations do nothing. Sand posted an article suggesting progression to less virulent forms over time was favored from an evolutionary perspective, but I don’t think that is a given.Historically speaking, is mutation more likely to trend toward less virulent than more virulent?
Certainly not a claim i have ever made either.I’ve taken plenty of ppe courses myself being in the OR and I certainly wouldn’t consider myself an expert on infectious disease.
Assuming that all aerosolized diseases would have similar rates of spread seems very odd to me.If it were almost all aerosol, Ro would be closer to that of measles (12+), though certainly other virulence determinants contribute to that number.
This is a good point, too -- the continuing mystery concerning how COVID Patient A, 103o fever and coughing up lungs, can spread practically no virus to others ... while COVID Patient B can be totally asymptomatic, feel nothing, and yet be a continuing smokestack of viruses as he breathes calmly.I think the belief is still primarily droplet spread, with some aerosol (especially superspreaders?), and a little fomite. If it were almost all aerosol, Ro would be closer to that of measles (12+), though certainly other virulence determinants contribute to that number.
This makes sense. Masks where you cannot control/adhere to distnacing.This isnt entirely true. Pretty sure masks are required in plenty of places. Public transportation being one of them.
I honestly had no idea who he was. I don't watch much of that stuff. I just assumed he was closer to the CDC side of things than the administration's side of things. It was pretty bad.I watched. Horrible.
He was confirmed by the Senate on 8/3/17, a few days after he was nominated.
Reading between the lines ... you don't think simple-breathing aerosols (through regular ol' calm breathing through the nose) spreads the virus at all inside of indoor spaces? Is that a line of BS we're being fed by ... whoever? The CDC?Trained on PPE annually for 13 years now (just last week finished recent course with COVID training included). Work in ORs where aside from product knowledge, my only job is not to screw up PPE/infectious diease/BBP wise.
I haven't claimed to be an expert but, I mean relative to the vast majority? Probably fair.
eta - I have 2 claims - the argument on the necessity of masks when others are adhered to, and the efficacy of north of 50% of the masks I see in public. Combine the two and the mask wearing dogma is severely over emphasized.
For two hours? I have zero faith the typical mask is protecting me from anything in that scenario.Reading between the lines ... you don't think simple-breathing aerosols (through regular ol' calm breathing through the nose) spreads the virus at all inside of indoor spaces? Is that a line of BS we're being fed by ... whoever? The CDC?
Contrived situation to make a point: You and three others are inside of a large elevator (call it an 8' square). One of the others is a COVID carrier, but is not coughing or sneezing -- just has a low fever and a weakened taste/smell sense. While no one else on the elevator is aware of the COVID carrier, everyone is cognizant of the general COVID risk and thus generally remains in their corners of the elevator for the duration. No one has a face covering, and the elevator's air is not well ventilated.
So ... this elevator stops between floors and it takes about two hours to get everyone out. You feel pretty good about coming out of that elevator without an infection?