The Commish
Footballguy
This has always been the case though, right? The correct answer is "we don't know enough yet". That sure seems like it to me. What am I missing? Anyone jumping to either side at this point should stop with the absolutes, no?
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
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The Commish
Footballguy
Pretty much where I'm at. We have some of these gaiters laying around the house because of our fishing escapades and hate for sunscreen. I wore one, folded over three times when I couldn't find masks in the store. It wasn't the most comfortable thing (though not unbearable). I think I'm gonna do this experiment if I can remember where I put the gaiters
Doug B
Footballguy
Duke’s COVID mask study got much attention. But neck gaiter industry wants a do-over (The News & Observer, Raleigh, NC 8/11/2020)
(spoilered for length, but not really long)
(spoilered for length, but not really long)
The COVID-19 pandemic has been good for the neck gaiter business. Those tubes of fabric that people wear around their necks, usually to keep warm, also function as a mask by simply being pulled up over the nose and mouth.
But then researchers at Duke University published a study Friday that cast doubt on the use of neck gaiters to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. The researchers tested 15 types of masks and face coverings, but news coverage of their study has largely focused on one, the gaiter.
That’s because the gaiter they tested actually seemed to make things worse. While the various masks, to some degree, prevented droplets of potentially virus-laden moisture from getting into the air when someone speaks, the gaiter turned the larger droplets into a cloud of smaller ones that hung in the air longer.
“The use of such a mask might be counterproductive,” the researchers wrote in their paper, published in the journal Science Advances. The headline on The Washington Post article Tuesday morning was more direct: “Wearing a neck gaiter may be worse than no mask at all, researchers find.”
Headlines like that have caused turmoil in the neck gaiter industry, which consists of hundreds of gaiter manufacturers and other companies that print art or words on the garments and sell them, said Chris Bernat.
GAITERS KEEPING BUSINESSES ALIVE
Bernat works for Vapor Apparel based near Charleston, South Carolina, and sits on the board of the Printing United Alliance, a trade group that includes several textile companies. Vapor mostly sells sun-protection clothing but has seen sales of its gaiters rise 450% in the past two months as people use them as coronavirus masks, Bernat said in an interview.
“A lot of people in our industry are literally keeping their businesses alive with this,” he said.
But not all gaiters are alike, Bernat says. Better, thicker materials distinguish a high-quality gaiter from what he calls a “giveaway gaiter,” one meant more for promotion than clothing.
“I have a feeling that whatever gaiter was in their lab was probably a giveaway gaiter,” he said.
Bernat said he reached out to the Duke researchers to see if they would test higher-quality gaiters made by his company, confident that they would perform better at preventing droplets from getting through.
He had not heard back as of Tuesday afternoon.
‘PRETTY THIN’ MATERIAL
Martin Fischer, the Duke physicist who designed the study, noted Monday that they tested only one neck gaiter, made of polyester mixed with a little spandex. In an interview, he described the material as “pretty thin” and said it got thinner when you stretch it over your mouth and nose.
Fischer said the study was never meant to be a comprehensive test of all masks and mask materials. Instead, the Duke researchers wanted to show how easy it is to test the effectiveness of the wide variety of masks that people are wearing to protect themselves and others from coronavirus.
But then researchers at Duke University published a study Friday that cast doubt on the use of neck gaiters to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. The researchers tested 15 types of masks and face coverings, but news coverage of their study has largely focused on one, the gaiter.
That’s because the gaiter they tested actually seemed to make things worse. While the various masks, to some degree, prevented droplets of potentially virus-laden moisture from getting into the air when someone speaks, the gaiter turned the larger droplets into a cloud of smaller ones that hung in the air longer.
“The use of such a mask might be counterproductive,” the researchers wrote in their paper, published in the journal Science Advances. The headline on The Washington Post article Tuesday morning was more direct: “Wearing a neck gaiter may be worse than no mask at all, researchers find.”
Headlines like that have caused turmoil in the neck gaiter industry, which consists of hundreds of gaiter manufacturers and other companies that print art or words on the garments and sell them, said Chris Bernat.
GAITERS KEEPING BUSINESSES ALIVE
Bernat works for Vapor Apparel based near Charleston, South Carolina, and sits on the board of the Printing United Alliance, a trade group that includes several textile companies. Vapor mostly sells sun-protection clothing but has seen sales of its gaiters rise 450% in the past two months as people use them as coronavirus masks, Bernat said in an interview.
“A lot of people in our industry are literally keeping their businesses alive with this,” he said.
But not all gaiters are alike, Bernat says. Better, thicker materials distinguish a high-quality gaiter from what he calls a “giveaway gaiter,” one meant more for promotion than clothing.
“I have a feeling that whatever gaiter was in their lab was probably a giveaway gaiter,” he said.
Bernat said he reached out to the Duke researchers to see if they would test higher-quality gaiters made by his company, confident that they would perform better at preventing droplets from getting through.
He had not heard back as of Tuesday afternoon.
‘PRETTY THIN’ MATERIAL
Martin Fischer, the Duke physicist who designed the study, noted Monday that they tested only one neck gaiter, made of polyester mixed with a little spandex. In an interview, he described the material as “pretty thin” and said it got thinner when you stretch it over your mouth and nose.
Fischer said the study was never meant to be a comprehensive test of all masks and mask materials. Instead, the Duke researchers wanted to show how easy it is to test the effectiveness of the wide variety of masks that people are wearing to protect themselves and others from coronavirus.
beer 30
Footballguy
You're new here, welcome
Unfortunately no, most people don't. Not knocking you Doug, more kidding than anything else but I think you've seen throughout this response just how 1. ridiculous people can be on this topic and B. the lack of common sense afforded to the general population.
You sir, are living in some dystopian world of which I am not familiar
Doug B
Footballguy
Can you get a read on what kind of gaiters they are? Might be hard to tell from a distance.
culdeus
Footballguy
The majority are sports logo licenced. The local sports teams made a big show out of passing out a ton of these MLS, NBA, leading this charge.
The Mavericks have licensed with "foco" for this it would seem.
JaxBill
Footballguy
Oh.
Miami-Dade County reported 4,141 additional confirmed cases of COVID-19, and 30 new deaths, according to Florida’s Department of Health. The county now has 139,271 confirmed cases and 1,939 deaths.
Florida’s Department of Health says the county’s single-day high of 4,141 newly confirmed cases is “not reflective of current trends” because it was caused by a backlog of testing data dating back to June 23 from Niznik Lab Corp in Miami.
“The lab reported over 4,000 cases occurring over the past 7 weeks, but which had not been reported to DOH until today,” the health department wrote on Twitter. “Therefore, this backlog severely skews today’s daily report for Miami-Dade & is not reflective of current trends.”
Miami-Dade County reported 4,141 additional confirmed cases of COVID-19, and 30 new deaths, according to Florida’s Department of Health. The county now has 139,271 confirmed cases and 1,939 deaths.
Florida’s Department of Health says the county’s single-day high of 4,141 newly confirmed cases is “not reflective of current trends” because it was caused by a backlog of testing data dating back to June 23 from Niznik Lab Corp in Miami.
“The lab reported over 4,000 cases occurring over the past 7 weeks, but which had not been reported to DOH until today,” the health department wrote on Twitter. “Therefore, this backlog severely skews today’s daily report for Miami-Dade & is not reflective of current trends.”
Doug B
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
This sounds all well and good, but when inaction or the recommendation of inaction is what accompanies the "we dont know enough yet," it functions the same as an absolute in the other direction.
There are tons of anecdotal stories that show aerosol spread is likely a problem. There are modeling studies that have shown aerosol spread could be a big problem. They have determined that live infectious virus can float in the air. They have determined that small particles from your mouth can remain in the air for a long time.
Now there are three things you can say after learning those things.
1. We should definitely be taking precautions to minimize this kind of spread which we cant say with absolute certainty is happening, but we think it has a very high probability.
2. No way, it is ridiculous, it cant spread that way.
3. We still need to wait and see.
2 and 3 both have the same action plan and function as the same absolute.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
Major foul-up by the lab in Miami which means past numbers reported should adjusted. DOH is investigating. A big question is whether those who tested positive were informed in a timely manner.
That said, the metrics from individual hospitals, emergency calls, positivity rate all indicate a downward trend.
Two people to follow:
Ben Conarck of the Miami Herald
Marc Bevand, whose code and data sources are on github
>> Today Florida reported 212 covid deaths among state residents. They are shown by the darkest blue layer added to the bar chart (left) The rainbow chart (right) indicates we are past peak deaths: curves for the last few days since 8/6 are not as steep. <<
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Yeah, we had several of those "catch-ups" and system maintenance windows that caused big one-day numbers which weren't all attributed to that particular day. That's what made me start looking closer at the 14-day trends and the positivity percentage numbers moreso than the daily case numbers.
ETA: Now we don't update at all on Saturdays. And just from looking through my own data, you can see a pretty regular pattern in little rises and falls in numbers of tests processed on different days of the week. I'd guess it has something to do with the way they collect their data from different entry points.
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Doug B
Footballguy
I'm happy to treat aerosol spread as absolutely settled science. It would be a huge shock IMHO if, five years down the line, there were new information that made science say "Erm ... so aerosol spread really had nothing to do with it". It's not a 50-50 call at this point ... it's not "maybe we know, maybe we don't". We know.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I agree with you. I have no idea how else you could explain so many super spreading events.
Mostly just addressing that even if you think it isn't settled science, sitting on your hands is the exact same thing as acting as if it is settled science the other direction.
Arizona is certainly an interesting case and possibly a sign of how beneficial masks are. AZ did mask mandates by city/county and mainly just shut down bars and gyms. Restaurants remained open with only slight additional restrictions. Many bar-like establishments also were able to stay open because they did it based on license.
While it’s still bad here definite improvements are being seen with these minimal (IMO) rollbacks. Hospital numbers are dropping across the board and cases both in number and percent positive have dropped like a rock. Demand for testing has gone way down too but that could be due to testing fatigue after long lines and delays in results for most of July. The labs are now caught up and getting test results back quickly and ASU has a spit test that’s even quicker.
Large number of reported deaths today but that’s to be expected.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
We (here in my area, that have been tracking numbers) have been asking this since March, when the first data "glitch" happened in their reporting system. You know they have to have that piece of data available. Makes no sense to not report it. Same goes for hospital/ICU capacity vs current censuses. I would think all states have a state department that monitors that. I know our state does. I guess this is when it would be beneficial to have a supreme data overlord that could make that a requirement for everywhere to report those things for data consistency.
The Commish
Footballguy
I'm not sure the bold is true. If we are in "wait and see" mode, to me, "plan for the worst, hope for the best" is the logical step. That would mean "wear the mask and if it turns out we didn't need them all that time so be it....now we know". I don't see that being the same action as #2.
beer 30
Footballguy
Requires planning and thought, you must be new here too, welcome!
For the record, I agree, not sure why this is so difficult unless there are agendas afoot.
greedygoat
Footballguy
My 18 year old son had a friend over our house this past weekend. His friend informed us this morning that he just tested positive. He is asymptomatic and was only tested because he’s leaving for college next week and the school requires a negative test for all student athletes before they can attend practices.
So, I just took my family of four for testing less than an hour ago in Palm Beach County, FL. I was told I should have our results in 2-3 days.
So, I just took my family of four for testing less than an hour ago in Palm Beach County, FL. I was told I should have our results in 2-3 days.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I dont remember all those doctors and public health officials in february and March speaking that way about masks.
beer 30
Footballguy
Hope your results 1. come back and 2. come back negative
My daughter, who leaves for college this weekend, was just discussing this with me. Her roommate from last year is moving into a house with 3 other girls. One of them has been there for the last few weeks and just informed the others that she tested positive so as schools begins on the 17th, the other 3 are out of pocket for at least 2 weeks. I fear this is going to turn into a cluster #### of epic proportion as 35,000 kids descend on Columbia, SC.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Yep. And on every other college campus having in-person classes. Hopefully they all have solid plans in place when positives arise.
The Commish
Footballguy
ok? you won't get any disagreement from me that the general public is pretty lazy and likes people to tell them what to do, well until it's something they don't want to do that is.
beer 30
Footballguy
My daughter has 5 classes this semester, one in person, 4 online. Her friend that I mentioned has all online classes. Just seems really transparent to bring all the kids back and tout the safety of the children when it's incredibly apparent you just want the cash generated from having students onsite.
I give it a month before they go all virtual and have to shut down stuff or send kids home. Just not at all optimistic 35,000 students under the age of 23 are going to pull this off.
worrierking
Footballguy
@Nathan R. Jessep
They are doing this on the Louisiana Dept. of Health daily update now. It's very helpful.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Nice! Thanks for calling that to my attention. I hadn't checked the other tabs lately, as I usually just pull my data from the main data screen. I see they added some of the charts on hospitalization by region that they have always used in the press conferences. Now, one thing I'd like to see added on the "# of cases by collection date" is the number of tests on those same dates.
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Joe Summer
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
... I ... can't ... resist ...Add that to the list of phrases which didn't exist 6 months ago!
"neck" and "gaiter" are redundant
(just a joke -- don't ban me, bro!)
(just a joke -- don't ban me, bro!)
Schools will be just like everywhere else, do the right things for awhile until it becomes overwhelming. At the beginning of the pandemic, you’d hear about any business with an employee who tested positive, now I have no clue how many people have tested positive in my own store and I’m in management. There was even someone who I am in regular contact with who was positive and I was never told.
Many pharmacies have drastically changed their post exposure procedures too. Initially some places were replacing their entire staff with any exposure which was excessive. Then they would send staff home if other staff tested positive. Now your lucky if they do anything. If you don’t have symptoms and waiting for test results a lot of places will expect you to keep working.
Schools will be the same if they stay open. The quarantining of all exposed students will stop. Schools will be less forthcoming with information and some students just won’t be in school for a couple weeks. Those are really the only two options, shut it down or stop disclosing as much information. What’s happening now won’t last long.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Leg gaiters...... I ... can't ... resist ...
"neck" and "gaiter" are redundant
(just a joke -- don't ban me, bro!)
beer 30
Footballguy
I'm curious as my daughter mentioned it to me, what happens for in person classes when a student tests positive? How do they continue with the class? Seems like you'll almost have to have some online option. But then you have lab classes that are hands on, how do you make up 2 weeks of that? Will certainly be an interesting year.
beer 30
Footballguy
They DO exist https://www.rei.com/learn/expert-advice/gaiters.html
I used to do a fair amount of trial running, shoe gaiters were nice to have
Osaurus
Footballguy
Update: Looks like in-laws now need to get tested as they are complaining of chest pain and shortness of breath. Keep in mind they were visited by my BIL on Sunday. I’m not saying he is responsible (didn’t bother to get tested), but the timing is suspect. Hoping for the best here, but it could have been easily avoided (at least my BIL)
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Doug B
Footballguy
Just some reading ... articles that synthesize the current state of knowledge about COVID-19 transmission.
Forty percent of people with coronavirus infections have no symptoms. Might they be the key to ending the pandemic?
New research suggests that some of us may be partially protected due to past encounters with common cold coronaviruses (Washington Post, 8/8/2020)
The Good (But Not Great) News About T-Cells and Herd Immunity (New York magazine, 8/9/2020)
From the New York article:
Forty percent of people with coronavirus infections have no symptoms. Might they be the key to ending the pandemic?
New research suggests that some of us may be partially protected due to past encounters with common cold coronaviruses (Washington Post, 8/8/2020)
The Good (But Not Great) News About T-Cells and Herd Immunity (New York magazine, 8/9/2020)
From the New York article:
trader jake
Footballguy
Right now they believe they are doing the right thing to prevent the spread, but they are putting their health, and the health of others, at risk. With this news they can adjust their behavior to make their precautions effective. To me, that's very good news. Same with bandanas.
Doug B
Footballguy
I was wondering why you posted this, but I just figured it out.
Leg gaiters may well exist ... but neck gaiters are often "neck" gaiters
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I have no idea what this conversation means at this point. I didnt understand what you meant by neck and gaiter being redundant and now I am even more confused.I was wondering why you posted this, but I just figured it out.
Leg gaiters may well exist ... but neck gaiters are often "neck" gaiters
side tangent but this reminds me of a notepad we got in the mail once to advertise a realtor. It said he had ”33" years of experience.
No idea why 33 was in quotes.
ETA: I see he sent out a new one. Now it is "35" years. and he will get you "highest sales price"
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Cold Dead Hands
Footballguy
He means red neck when referring to “neck” gaiters. Though I guess it should be ‘neck gaiters.
We have a realtor here that advertises 75 years of experience. He is in his 30’s. I assume he means cumulative experience of all of the staff.
The Commish
Footballguy
I think you have it backwards...."gaiters" as I've ever known them are "leg warmers"....they were just "gaiters" though...so "leg gaiter" would have been redundant.I was wondering why you posted this, but I just figured it out.
Leg gaiters may well exist ... but neck gaiters are often "neck" gaiters
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Wrist gaiters?I think you have it backwards...."gaiters" as I've ever known them are "leg warmers"....they were just "gaiters" though...so "leg gaiter" would have been redundant.
CR69
Footballguy
Are those like yoga pants but for people from the South? If so, fire up a new thread!!I think you have it backwards...."gaiters" as I've ever known them are "leg warmers"....they were just "gaiters" though...so "leg gaiter" would have been redundant.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
I think it's official..... we've lost our collective mind
Doug B
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
What I’m curious about is whether the 40% that have no symptoms have no effects at all. With all the reports of this thing leaving people with damaged organs, I wonder if it’s possible that people have damage from the virus and may not even know it. Certainly hope that’s not the case obviously.
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