msommer
Footballguy
I have at no point in my life needed vitamin supplements. It seems my body, nutrition, way of life, whatever manages well without.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (22 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Same here. Different supplement, but since Rogan. Also covid free and I have even been on an airplane 4 times without covering my eyes!Been taking 2 drops of this daily since I listened to the Rogan podcast. Still COVID free
culdeus
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Just trying to understand your position - is it that Vitamin D does no good (and/or we don't know if it does any good), your Vitamin D level is fine/can't be improved or something else? I honestly don't know what my Vitamin D level is but it seems that there's enough evidence that shows a high-ish % of hospitalizations are patients with Vitamin D deficiencies that it seems like a cheap and almost no risk step to take.
msommer
Footballguy
My position is that we should wait for vitamin D/calcifediol to conclusively be shown to have a positive effect, in treatments of COVID-19 or prevention of COVID-19 before starting to ingest same for that purpose.
I was then asked a question not very relevant to COVID-19 and the thread in general that I responded to.
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AAABatteries
Footballguy
Got it - that's reasonable.
My position is I don't think taking "extra" Vitamin D has any real risk associated with it. This isn't like the folks self-diagnosing and taking chloroquine without it being prescribed.
beer 30
Footballguy
Slap it highparasaurolophus said:
I did d a little research and settled on that one because it didn't contain a lot of extra junk some of the others did. I think because of the podcast, the doc said something about supplements that have stuff (can't remember what) that you don't need. Like filler but not that. Maybe a I read, don't remember.
Mine as well. Did a little research after listening to the podcast and figured as long as I wasn't drinking one of those bottles every week it wasn't going to hurt me. My wife has taken supplemental vitamin D for years but she tested for it and was found to be low. I work inside 10+ hours a day and only get any real exposure to the sun on Saturdays so while I don't think I was dying from lack, I also don't think it's hurting me to be taking it.AAABatteries said:
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Pa restaurants going from 25 to 50% capacity on the 21st
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Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
Did one of the vaccine trials have a setback? The Astra Zeneca candidate working with University of Oxford? That one has a lot of promise IIRC.
McBokonon
Footballguy
top dog
Footballguy
beer 30
Footballguy
I read about that, wondering how they came up with the price tag but not really important. It turned into what pretty much most everyone in this thread thought it would.
THIS IS WHY WE CAN'T HAVE NICE THINGS!!!!
nirad3
Footballguy
My kids (9 and 7) had a little basketball instructional camp thing last night. Kids had to wear masks the whole time. It was outdoors and they were all pretty spaced apart. Overkill, IMO. But hey what do I know. It was definitely great to get them outside and runnin' around though!
encaitar
Footballguy
Skeptical
The rally a stupid thing to hold during this point in time, but there's little chance that those estimates are correct(and they haven't been peer reviewed). For one thing, the study ignores the impact of schools/colleges opening that is causing an uptick in many of the same counties they are reporting seeing an uptick in after having people from there attend the rally.
I'm also really, really skeptical about the $12.2B in added health costs, even if 250,000 were infected. That means every person with the virus costs nearly $50k in health costs... even the asymptomatic? Hard for me to believe. I'm willing to hear responses to this for sure though, because I really didn't think the per case costs were that high.
Either way, Sturgis should've been canceled this year. No doubt that some people are going to die that likely could've survived until a vaccine was available just because some bikers wanted to party.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
It's still baffling how different we are handling things across the country. We've had basketball tournaments going for weeks and our Fall season started practice this past weekend and games start this weekend.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
This is from many of the same people that brought us the study using similar methodology to show that the protests actually caused a net decrease in cases. This group should be proof of how people can start with an agenda and try to find data to further their narrative.
Neither study is peer reviewed.
Neither study looked at hospitalizations.
The paper they used for cost calculations isnt published.
msommer
Footballguy
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the moops
Footballguy
I really don't care all that much to look into it in depth, and I don't really buy it, but I do remember reading that part of the reason that they thought protests didn't cause an increase was because of the subsequent decrease in number of other people who were not going out or gathering because of the unrest.
Again, I don't buy it, but I do like to read of outside the box thinking like this
Doug B
Footballguy
I read on another site that one of the trial participants was diagnosed with myelitis of the spinal cord ... which I wouldn't think would be related to the vaccine. Let me look for a proper link.
EDIT: Glad I double-checked. The trial participant with myelitis was identified back in July. The current pause in Oxford's trial is unrelated that participant:
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msommer
Footballguy
That's right. And from what I've read this pause is completely normal and expected to happen multiple times with so many vaccines being tested
encaitar
Footballguy
That's what I read too. It hadn't even been determined yet whether that participant had the vaccine or the placebo, much less what their background medical history was in the article I read. Hopefully it's just a hiccup and AZN doing their due diligence.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
Your friend is fortunate. As are you, to not have had to deal with this disease too much. Continued good fortune to you.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Sure. In short, they're trying too hard. You don't need to invoke bradykinins as a reason for cough in an infection that involves the respiratory tract. Same goes for leaky blood vessels, as just about every inflammatory mediator, including cytokines and bradykinins, cause that to occur. All that stuff is interrelated as part of the inflammatory cascade, and it's really difficult to decisively pin the findings on one of 20+ substances simultaneously released in response to an infection; they all play a role, and seldom (if ever TMK) is shutting down one enough to prevent the end results. Moreover, despite what the article says, we don't have a ton a great anti-bradykinin drugs, but I suppose there's no harm in seeing if the ones we do make a difference.
And the vast majority of hospitalized Covid patients don't have renal failure, high potassium and/or low blood pressure - while some may have evidence of kidney involvement, low potassium levels and normal blood pressures are far more common. So all the talk about mimicking ACE inhibitor toxicity seems overstated. People with covid taking ACE inhibitors haven't shown worse outcomes either.
I hope I'm wrong, and this really is a breakthrough. But I've been around long enough to recognize certain shared biologic pathways as poor targets for specific disease treatments. Even though our antiviral track record sucks, I think we'd do better to focus on treating the virus to prevent the cytokine/bradykinin storm from developing in the first place. And developing a vaccine, of course. But heck, we've got plenty of scientists to work on all of that, and elaborate novel therapeutic targets/agents as well.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Here is a PDF of the study. From the conclusion (pp 29-30):
The $46K per COVID case paper is here. They are making estimates based on DOT standards quantifying the value of life for the whole spectrum of illness, from asymptomatic to severe, excluding deaths.
All this is way outside my field of expertise, but perhaps some FFA economists can chime in on the validity of their methodology.
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The Z Machine
Footballguy
I think the main criticism of this calculation was stated earlier: They may be other drivers of increased cases other than Sturgis. Perhaps the majority of counties with high inflows from Sturgis also had high inflows of college students or migrant workers or changes in dining safety protocols or some other externality and not Sturgis.
However, if there's a strong correlation between high inflows from Sturgis and increased cases over baseline that could point to a relationship between Sturgis and that case rate.
Maybe they should do some contact tracing on the covid positives from this time period and see if a good number had direct contact with those that attended Sturgis or attended themselves.
However, if there's a strong correlation between high inflows from Sturgis and increased cases over baseline that could point to a relationship between Sturgis and that case rate.
Maybe they should do some contact tracing on the covid positives from this time period and see if a good number had direct contact with those that attended Sturgis or attended themselves.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
The pause is normal, but that particular diagnosis (transverse myelitis) is problematic, as it is related to Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS), which has been speculated to be caused by other vaccines. Truthfully, the GBS link is pretty weak, but there was a significant uptick in cases amongst recipients of the 1976 "Swine" flu vaccine, and neurologic illness is especially scrutinized when it occurs in proximity to vaccination as a result.
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Terminalxylem
Footballguy
The Z Machine
Footballguy
My wife (the public health professional) asked how big the confidence interval was on that estimate of 260k and where in that c.i. the number resided? Upper bound, mid-range, etc.
Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
From this reason this morning:
So it sounds like for any location that had people travel to Sturgis they attributed any local rise in cases to the rally, which seems pretty unrealistic. The study basically holds Sturgis responsible for 20% of all of the US cases, which again seems unlikely. The Washington Post, which seems unlikely to attempt to downplay the impact, surveyed health departments last week and came up with 260 cases and 1 death linked to Sturgis. There's a reasonable chance that's an undercount given it's almost a week old and these things are tricky to pin down, but I doubt it's a 1000X undercount.
culdeus
Footballguy
top dog
Footballguy
I'm up to 6 people that I either know or are directly related to someone I know..... Who have DIED from Covid. Including my coworker that lost his wife to it in April and then his mother to it in late August.perbach said:
If you haven't had it hit close by it tends to make you feel it is not as dangerous as it has been made out to be. But you already know that...
GoBirds
Footballguy
Man sorry to hear that. It seems that vast majority have had contributing conditions, was that the case with the people you know?
I’ve been fortunate like the previous poster, sorry to hear you’ve had to go through that.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbs42.com/news/health/coronavirus/new-cdc-report-shows-94-of-covid-19-deaths-in-us-had-underlying-medical-conditions/amp/
Courtjester
The Town Drunk
My BIL was one of those firm anti-mask'/justflu people. He would try and go places without a mask (like my 85 year old mom's house once
) just to prove a point. His cousin, who he was really close with, died from Covid recently. I saw my BIL last week, he was wearing a mask and not quite a brazen as before.My wife is a special ed coach and she was with two teachers Friday--there were no kids with them at this point. She learned Tuesday they are both in quarantine from contact they had with a suspected positive student two days before she met with them. Her co-worker, who sits next to her, is now quarantined from student contact--my wife was with her Tuesday. There are three other people in her office now out pending test results from separate student contacts. Two school nurses just quit. Things are a mess and we are supposedly in a State that is doing well. .This is just the beginning of the school year--I can't imagine where we are going to be 30-45 days from now.
And as if on cue-as I am typing this, an email just popped in about an attorney I have known for years, just passed away yesterday from Covid.
trader jake
Footballguy
The combination of Labor Day and schools reopening in most places is a really bad combination for case numbers.
Sorry to those still dealing with friends, family, or co-workers that are still in denial regarding this virus.
top dog
Footballguy
They did have some higher risk factors. But the sad part about it was almost all of them got it from someone who was NOT a high risk factor.
- One was a maintenance employee for my wife's company. I think he was 60, African American, and had borderline high blood pressure. His niece who was much younger ended up giving it to him before she realized she was positive. Of course she lived being much younger, but not before accidentally exposing her Uncle who was the sole provider for his special needs grandson. He was on a ventilator for about 10 days before dying.
- One was an older lady I used to work with about 10 years ago. She had to be in her earlier 60s. I don't know her health factors as I didn't know her that well. Not sure where she got it from.
- One was the wife of of a coworker. We had an outbreak at one of our facilities. Last I knew we had about 18 people who ended up contracting it in that facility. None of the workers died, but family members did. This lady was 53 but had type 1 diabetes. She was on a ventilator for about 2 weeks before dying. She was also the mother of another coworker who worked at the same facility as his father. The son who is in his mid 20's actually contracted it and was patient zero for the outbreak.
- One was the mother of the same coworker who lost his wife above. She died months later after contracting it in a nursing home. I think she was 90.
- One was the mother of a coworker. Same outbreak. Did not know he had it and passed it to his elderly mother. She was in her 80s.
- One was the mother of a coworker. Same outbreak. Did not know he had it and passed it to his elderly mother. She was in her 80s as well.
While it IS true that most people who die from COVID are older, and have underlying health conditions. But unless you don't know anyone who is... well, older and possibly has health conditions, it is probably a good idea to take it seriously. I know my coworkers who gave it to their parents wished they hadn't given it to them.
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top dog
Footballguy
Damn. That is a lot to deal with. We've had a couple close call type contacts and it kind sucks waiting out the 14 days.My BIL was one of those firm anti-mask'/justflu people. He would try and go places without a mask (like my 85 year old mom's house once
My wife is a special ed coach and she was with two teachers Friday--there were no kids with them at this point. She learned Tuesday they are both in quarantine from contact they had with a suspected positive student two days before she met with them. Her co-worker, who sits next to her, is now quarantined from student contact--my wife was with her Tuesday. There are three other people in her office now out pending test results from separate student contacts. Two school nurses just quit. Things are a mess and we are supposedly in a State that is doing well. .This is just the beginning of the school year--I can't imagine where we are going to be 30-45 days from now.
And as if on cue-as I am typing this, an email just popped in about an attorney I have known for years, just passed away yesterday from Covid.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Man that's awful. What region are you in if you don't mind me asking? You are right everyone should be taking this seriously, unfortunately you get the knuckleheads that don't and even many who do yet even if positive show absolutely no symptoms and at some point come into contact with these high risk cases you mention.
top dog
Footballguy
Cleveland, OH area. Most of the case we know were in March before we knew a whole lot as a nation. The young man who was patient zero went to dinner with his wife and another couple. The other couple's wife had it and wasn't showing symptoms yet. He started showing symptoms 4 days later. It wasn't like he was hitting the clubs yelling "screw covid! I'm young!" Shows even more that it is easy to get it and have some serious consequences.
The sad part is that our company had a serious outbreak that resulted in folks dying. Shut that facility down for two weeks as we had to have it deep cleaned after people just kept getting sick. But most of the company STILL does not take it seriously starting at the top. I've been in meetings where half the people are either not wearing masks or have them hanging under their chin, etc. It is very frustrating.
encaitar
Footballguy
I read the study before I commented. It looked like a study of someone trying to fit their parameters around a conclusion. Yes, South Dakota rose by a factor of 3.6/1000 in the weeks after Sturgis. This last week they've fallen back down, nearly to the level they were at before Sturgis. So, hard to argue it's caused an explosion in SD.
The twitter feed I linked went into it even further. If Sturgis was the catalyst for a massive explosion, then the populous counties across the nation that had the largest number of attendees should've exploded in the same way SD did. Yet, none of them did. Most didn't even see a significant rise. A few of them even saw a reduction in the cases/1000.
As mentioned here before that paper also ignores the opening of schools, doesn't factor in the broadening of restaurant/bar rules, etc. in many of those same places that saw increases.
Like I said, Sturgis was stupid. They should've canceled it for a year. The bikers could've missed one. However, assigning 20% of the nation's current COVID tally to Sturgis seems like a political position, not a numerical one.
As for the values they chose? I had COVID back in March. Luckily it was mild. According to their research, I apparently factor somewhere between $11k and $33k on their monetary scale. I didn't miss a day of work(I was able to work from home). I had very little symptoms. I've had no lingering effects that I know of. How they can decide that people like myself, or even moreso, asymptomatic people will cost that much in future health costs to this disease is beyond me, especially considering how little we know of it(especially long term) right now.
I just thought that was an interesting stance. I get that it's an estimate, but it seems to be on the high side IMO. Like you, I know very little about this or how economists figure these things, so I'll accept their numbers(although I'll probably be unable to withhold my skepticism)
top dog
Footballguy
As a data analyst and someone who takes COVID seriously, I can attest that study on Sutrgis is pretty flawed. It is easy to manipulate data to fit an agenda. There is A LOT of crap out there from both sides of this that just make it even harder to get everyone together on this issue.I read the study before I commented. It looked like a study of someone trying to fit their parameters around a conclusion. Yes, South Dakota rose by a factor of 3.6/1000 in the weeks after Sturgis. This last week they've fallen back down, nearly to the level they were at before Sturgis. So, hard to argue it's caused an explosion in SD.
The twitter feed I linked went into it even further. If Sturgis was the catalyst for a massive explosion, then the populous counties across the nation that had the largest number of attendees should've exploded in the same way SD did. Yet, none of them did. Most didn't even see a significant rise. A few of them even saw a reduction in the cases/1000.
As mentioned here before that paper also ignores the opening of schools, doesn't factor in the broadening of restaurant/bar rules, etc. in many of those same places that saw increases.
Like I said, Sturgis was stupid. They should've canceled it for a year. The bikers could've missed one. However, assigning 20% of the nation's current COVID tally to Sturgis seems like a political position, not a numerical one.
As for the values they chose? I had COVID back in March. Luckily it was mild. According to their research, I apparently factor somewhere between $11k and $33k on their monetary scale. I didn't miss a day of work(I was able to work from home). I had very little symptoms. I've had no lingering effects that I know of. How they can decide that people like myself, or even moreso, asymptomatic people will cost that much in future health costs to this disease is beyond me, especially considering how little we know of it(especially long term) right now.
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