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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (15 Viewers)

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Yeah I can't defend the flat earther comment, wasn't aware of it.  Actually kind of odd because seems most flat earthers are also no mask wearing plandemic supporters

...but as to the adjustments are you saying the rt data/estimates on transmission rate becomes less accurate due to the adjustments?  It would seem to me those adjustments would be to make it more accurate based on additional facts?
Nevermind me....I read too fast.  My point was that when they make changes they do them retroactively, so if you had something from June that you noted then and are comparing it to what's there now, that might not be wise.  But that's not what you said...I made a faulty assumption in my response.

 
Yeah I can't defend the flat earther comment, wasn't aware of it.  Actually kind of odd because seems most flat earthers are also no mask wearing plandemic supporters

...but as to the adjustments are you saying the rt data/estimates on transmission rate becomes less accurate due to the adjustments?  It would seem to me those adjustments would be to make it more accurate based on additional facts?
Didn't Florida change some things about how they'd be tracking cases a few months back?  I don't know the details but I remember reading about some new implementations or whatever that suggested they might be able to fudge the numbers.  Again, it was awhile ago and I'm foggy on it, but it stuck out to me as an opening for them to tweak stuff down the line.  So with everything in play right now, I don't trust their numbers one bit.

 
Didn't Florida change some things about how they'd be tracking cases a few months back?  I don't know the details but I remember reading about some new implementations or whatever that suggested they might be able to fudge the numbers.  Again, it was awhile ago and I'm foggy on it, but it stuck out to me as an opening for them to tweak stuff down the line.  So with everything in play right now, I don't trust their numbers one bit.
🙄...uh yeah, ok.  I guess they got people to quit dying as much too, probably just a political stunt. 

 
Just asking, did they change things up or not?  And is it to be trusted?
IDK.  Doesn't matter though, you already declared you won't trust the numbers one bit.  Nothing I would suggest would change that.  

I am glad we are open.  I'm glad kids are in school.  I'm glad individuals get the choice to try to get on with life again, or stay home if that is their prerogative.  I'm glad I'm not in a state that denies us the opportunity.

 
Just asking, did they change things up or not?  And is it to be trusted?
The data scientist who was in charge of tracking Covid numbers in Florida was fired and the data made much more secretive after that.

She alleges that they asked her to manipulate the data, she refused, and was fired. Specifically they asked her to calculate the positive rate by counting positive cases once, but counting someone who tests negative on multiple tests as multiple points of data, thus skewing the data.

 
IDK.  Doesn't matter though, you already declared you won't trust the numbers one bit.  Nothing I would suggest would change that.  

I am glad we are open.  I'm glad kids are in school.  I'm glad individuals get the choice to try to get on with life again, or stay home if that is their prerogative.  I'm glad I'm not in a state that denies us the opportunity.
Oh but it does.

I would be concerned with the fudging of numbers.  Why wouldn't you be??? 

So you're happy in the interim, great.  Down the line there will be a price to pay.  We will see what that is.....

 
Oh but it does.

I would be concerned with the fudging of numbers.  Why wouldn't you be??? 

So you're happy in the interim, great.  Down the line there will be a price to pay.  We will see what that is.....
Yup.  There's pressure on every agency involved with this to change/suppress their data.  It's very concerning for most people because it is another demonstration of who this admin actually cares about.

 
A large study from India has evidence for super spreaders and for children being efficient spreaders. 

>>The researchers found that 71% of infected individuals did not infect any of their contacts, while a mere 8% of infected individuals accounted for 60% of new infections.<<

https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/09/30/largest-covid-19-contact-tracing-study-date-finds-children-key-spread-evidence
Great thread on why this study is flawed. Fwiw Alasdair also immediately pointed out these same flaws in the now retracted south korea study that the new york times made a huge deal about and was actually cited by school districts all over as reason to go remote. 

 
Wisconsin going crazy with this thing. Hospitalizations are over 900. 

State has released pretty much zero information about where the spread is occurring. I assume bars are a big driver. I think labor day was probably big too followed by like a week straight of terrible weather which kept everybody inside. I also think locking down dorms was a bad idea too. Most of the kids just went home then. 

Doesnt seem like schools are doing too bad though. In my county there has been a big spike in cases, but very few in the schools. Almost no teachers, so for now still in person. 

 
Wisconsin going crazy with this thing. Hospitalizations are over 900. 

State has released pretty much zero information about where the spread is occurring. I assume bars are a big driver. I think labor day was probably big too followed by like a week straight of terrible weather which kept everybody inside. I also think locking down dorms was a bad idea too. Most of the kids just went home then. 

Doesnt seem like schools are doing too bad though. In my county there has been a big spike in cases, but very few in the schools. Almost no teachers, so for now still in person. 
This really took off when Evers started his mandates.    Finding it hard to blame the bars when the ones I've been to have very few people in them.

 
This really took off when Evers started his mandates. 
Ya gotta love this line of thinking.  The same people who sabotaged the effort to limit Covid by not wearing masks, not social distancing, not using common sense etc. are saying that these things don't work or even blaming the anti-Covid efforts for causing Covid spread.  SMH.

Finding it hard to blame the bars when the ones I've been to have very few people in them.
I've been in a ton of packed bars in Northeast Wisconsin which is ground zero for Covid right now (I only went to bars after I had Covid in July).  Madison is rarely representative of the rest of Wisconsin.

 
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This really took off when Evers started his mandates.    Finding it hard to blame the bars when the ones I've been to have very few people in them.
There was 4 straight weeks of descending case totals after the mask mandate. I am not aware of any other mandates that were still in effect, so the bold is factually incorrect. 

They showed a bunch of bars on the news during the packer game. Some were pretty full. Some were pretty empty.  

 
Crap. Per Covid worldometers, 344,000 new cases worldwide yesterday and another 348,000 today.  Those are the highest counts ever.  Today had 43 countries with over 1,000 cases, which is double where it was at some months ago.  A bit of a plateau in early August has led to rising counts again.

U.S. deaths about to pass 218,000.  Five South American countries plus the U.S. starting to move past Belgium and Spain for most deaths/million.  Crap.

 
It makes me wonder if we could wipe out flu
If  during flu season every year we all exercised better hygiene, wore masks on public transit, shook less hands, got vaccinated, and stayed home when sick, then yes we could.  With Covid likely becoming a seasonal thing after this year, we probably will be required to exercise these parameters in fall/winter going forward. Which will help prevent future pandemics as well.

 
Wisconsin going crazy with this thing. Hospitalizations are over 900. 

State has released pretty much zero information about where the spread is occurring. I assume bars are a big driver. I think labor day was probably big too followed by like a week straight of terrible weather which kept everybody inside. I also think locking down dorms was a bad idea too. Most of the kids just went home then. 

Doesnt seem like schools are doing too bad though. In my county there has been a big spike in cases, but very few in the schools. Almost no teachers, so for now still in person. 
That sucks that they’re not releasing local data. That’s just stupid. 

NJ has done a pretty good job with our data. They’re constantly updating data by county and highlighting specific towns when required. Right now we know that NJ’s surge is primarily due to a few college towns and, first and foremost, Lakeland, NJ due to the Orthodox Jewish community there who have been observing religious holidays recently and not following protocols while doing so. 

 
That sucks that they’re not releasing local data. That’s just stupid. 

NJ has done a pretty good job with our data. They’re constantly updating data by county and highlighting specific towns when required. Right now we know that NJ’s surge is primarily due to a few college towns and, first and foremost, Lakeland, NJ due to the Orthodox Jewish community there who have been observing religious holidays recently and not following protocols while doing so. 
I dont mean where zip code wise. I mean where like grocery store, party, wedding church, etc. I personally know of two events that had more than 20 cases among actual attendees. Literally nothing available in the news. Yet there were countless articles about the election and how many cases in WI and the anti lockdown protests causing cases ( even though they actually only asked if people had been to a large event, not actually a question about actual anti lockdown attendence).

We have 1200 contact tracers and all I hear about is how they are overwhelmed. Just because they are overwhelmed doesnt mean there is no data. 

 
We have 1200 contact tracers and all I hear about is how they are overwhelmed. Just because they are overwhelmed doesnt mean there is no data. 
I know it's not quite apples to apples, but when New Zealand had a couple recent cases, their contact tracing was detailed enough that they were able to identify a trash can lid and an elevator button as the likely sources of transmission. As you said, I'd think that even with the limitations in our own contact tracing there would be more information available.

Link to article

 
I know it's not quite apples to apples, but when New Zealand had a couple recent cases, their contact tracing was detailed enough that they were able to identify a trash can lid and an elevator button as the likely sources of transmission. As you said, I'd think that even with the limitations in our own contact tracing there would be more information available.

Link to article
That actually seems a bit suspect as fomite transmission is pretty rare. I guess rare still means it occurs so it’s definitely possible, but seems improbable.

 
I know it's not quite apples to apples, but when New Zealand had a couple recent cases, their contact tracing was detailed enough that they were able to identify a trash can lid and an elevator button as the likely sources of transmission. As you said, I'd think that even with the limitations in our own contact tracing there would be more information available.

Link to article
I read that article yesterday. 

Little different since those studies relied on information from cctv cameras inside a quarantine facility. 

Trash bin and elevator button were both inside facility. 

 
That actually seems a bit suspect as fomite transmission is pretty rare. I guess rare still means it occurs so it’s definitely possible, but seems improbable.
I cant seem to find any official position on airborne spread from NZ. I feel like that is important for how much stock we should put into any of these reports. If they rule it out then that means fomite spread will be the conclusion reached anytime they cant place individuals within 1.5 metres of each other. 

Eta: lol just did another search and it was super easy to find. They do not acknowledge airborne spread on their ministry of health pages. And they claim this...

Scientific evidence confirms COVID-19 is spread by droplets. When an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks, droplets containing the virus spread a short distance and can settle on surrounding surfaces.

 
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That sucks that they’re not releasing local data. That’s just stupid. 

NJ has done a pretty good job with our data. They’re constantly updating data by county and highlighting specific towns when required. Right now we know that NJ’s surge is primarily due to a few college towns and, first and foremost, Lakeland, NJ due to the Orthodox Jewish community there who have been observing religious holidays recently and not following protocols while doing so. 
From a pedantic NJ resident and editor, it's Lakewood. 

Lakewood was an epicenter of problems early in the pandemic, as people there -- not just the Orthodox Jews -- refused to stop holding weddings, funerals, block parties, etc. So it's not surprising there's a surge there again. 

We got a notice tonight that someone from our (very small) school district tested positive, but they have not been in contact with any schoolchildren. (We are all-online right now except for a few kids with IEPs that require hands-on instruction.) 

 
IDK.  Doesn't matter though, you already declared you won't trust the numbers one bit.  Nothing I would suggest would change that.  

I am glad we are open.  I'm glad kids are in school.  I'm glad individuals get the choice to try to get on with life again, or stay home if that is their prerogative.  I'm glad I'm not in a state that denies us the opportunity.
I think it’s adorable you think people have a choice. SO many don’t. 

 
My closest coworker is now very sick with this.  Haven't heard any news from him or his family for days now. 

He went to Mexico a couple weeks back and came home with what was tourista but turned out to be covid.  

Very worried.  I would say the guy is 50 and probably drinks too much but otherwise isn't super unhealthy. 

 
parasaurolophus said:
I cant seem to find any official position on airborne spread from NZ. I feel like that is important for how much stock we should put into any of these reports. If they rule it out then that means fomite spread will be the conclusion reached anytime they cant place individuals within 1.5 metres of each other. 

Eta: lol just did another search and it was super easy to find. They do not acknowledge airborne spread on their ministry of health pages. And they claim this...

Scientific evidence confirms COVID-19 is spread by droplets. When an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks, droplets containing the virus spread a short distance and can settle on surrounding surfaces.
Nothing in the statement you quoted is incorrect, and infection control in NZ sure seems to be doing something right.

For the record, can you clarify what percentage of covid cases you believe are due to aerosol spread? Ballpark figure.

 
Pip's Invitation said:
From a pedantic NJ resident and editor, it's Lakewood. 

Lakewood was an epicenter of problems early in the pandemic, as people there -- not just the Orthodox Jews -- refused to stop holding weddings, funerals, block parties, etc. So it's not surprising there's a surge there again. 

We got a notice tonight that someone from our (very small) school district tested positive, but they have not been in contact with any schoolchildren. (We are all-online right now except for a few kids with IEPs that require hands-on instruction.) 
I think it was this coupled with high numbers of people commuting to the city. Also there were a large number of nursing homes that were hit very hard around me.  

 
Funny. That’s probably about as accurate an estimate as New Zealand public health officials, or anyone for that matter, could make based on what we definitively know. Which is why it’s nonproductive to mock them for their stance on airborne transmission.

 
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Funny. That’s probably about as accurate an estimate as New Zealand public health officials, or anyone for that matter, could make based on what we definitively know. Which is why it’s nonproductive to mock them for their stance on airborne transmission.
I mocked them because they said "scientific evidence confirms" which is a phrase that has no business being on any public health declarations right now. 

The bold is exactly why i mocked them. 

Furthermore if you follow the conversation the whole point I was making is that  contact tracing isnt really the same when you are tracing people you have forced into quarantine and you have the facilities you have put them in rigged with cameras and you dismiss transimission beyond 1.5 metres because you claim thats what the science says. 

That is literally as simple as "hey these two people have the virus and we sequenced it so we know A got it from B so watch the video footage of these two and see when they were within 1.5 metres of each other. If you cant find that, find out what they each touched that matches, thanks."

 
For the record, can you clarify what percentage of covid cases you believe are due to aerosol spread? Ballpark figure.
I know you asked para, but I'll take an honest stab at it: something like 2 cases in 3.

I might have a lot to learn about it ... but it just doesn't seem that even a disease-naive population will spread quite that many "heavy droplets" quite that often to account for the way COVID-19 was apparently spreading in the U.S. hotspots late February through mid March (and also Wuhan in January, for that matter). In short -- accounting for a high percentage of aerosol spread seems to explain the observed transmission rates/patterns much more accurately than a model based too strictly on heavy droplets and fomites.

Furthermore -- it seems to me that if heavy droplets were a dominant vector, the difference between indoor and outdoor spread would be much less pronounced. I can understand ambient outdoor air movement readily dispersing exhaled aerosols and preventing "trapped air" concentrations of exhaled virus-laden aerosols. Similarly for the effects of sunlight. I can less understand how heavy droplets are affected as much by the same outdoor air conditions (since heavy droplets rely so much on proximity).

 
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Outbreak in canada from a spin class. 11 people infected. 

Spin class has to rank right up there with any other activity right now for covid risk. No way i would be in that room. 
My wife was going to boot camp type classes 3 or 4 times a week while we were in Boise in September. She was the only one wearing a mask, including the instructor. She did do virtual spin classes there but there was no one else near her. Doing a group spin class is something even she said she wouldn't do right now.

 
Went to a convenience store and a Walmart today without a mask on.   Quite a few others doing the same tells me that people are finally coming to terms with the new normal and know the rona is not going away anytime soon no matter what we do.

 
Went to a convenience store and a Walmart today without a mask on.   Quite a few others doing the same tells me that people are finally coming to terms with the new normal and know the rona is not going away anytime soon no matter what we do.
Location:Madison, Wisconsin

I know that pandemic fatigue is a real thing.  But wearing a mask in public is such a simple thing to do.  It's clear that it helps prevent spread.  It shows you are capable of looking out for other's well-being.  I would hope you'd keep that in mind next time and just wear the mask regardless of what others are doing.

 
Went to a convenience store and a Walmart today without a mask on.   Quite a few others doing the same tells me that people are finally coming to terms with the new normal and know the rona is not going away anytime soon no matter what we do.
Location: Madison, WI

Considering the hot spot Wisconsin is right now tells me that people are incapable of making the right and smart decision

 
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