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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
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trader jake
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Although contact tracing and, by extension, infectious disease epidemiology are imperfect science, that doesn’t invalidate their use. Unfortunately, there is no practical way to definitively characterize covid spread when droplet, aerosol and contact transmission are all possible. More importantly, public health recommendations focusing mostly on droplet, and to a lesser degree fomite spread appear to be effective enough to curtail aerosol transmission in most everyday situations.
Given their results, what do you think NZ public health officials would gain by placing greater emphasis on the possibility of airborne (aerosol) SARS-CoV-2 transmission?
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Fair enough. I think it’s much lower, maybe somewhere along the lines of 10-20%. Why? Ro is much closer to other infections spread primarily by droplets, and hospitals treating covid patients didn’t experience major outbreaks despite airborne isolation infrastructure and PPE being limited. And as I pointed out to para above, droplet and contact precautions seem to be working really well in countries with compliant populations.
It’s tricky though, especially when superspreaders are considered. An argument can be made that aerosols are the primary mode of transmission in many (most?) superspreading events, and it’s believed these account for a big chunk of new cases. So maybe you’re right. How do you think policy should be altered to account for 2/3 vs. 1/5 aerosol transmission?
In any event, I think it’s obnoxious to discount NZ public health officials for their guidance, summarily dismissing their statements based on legitimate, albeit imperfect, scientific evidence.
Looks like Arizona is back on the rise. Mask wearing seems to still be pretty well, so I’d guess that it’s behavior outside the public eye plus schools are bars reopening.
Made potentially my dumbest choice of the pandemic and brought the family to an indoor water park last weekend. More accurately, didn’t put up a fight. The hotel itself was fine, masks everywhere but the waterpark obviously was another story. We kept out distance from other adults when possible but our oldest daughter is extremely social and made a lot of friends over the two days. Felt great for her to be able to do it as she’s clearly been missing it. Hopefully it won’t come back to haunt us.
Earlier this week I had what could be considered symptoms - exhaustion doing basic tasks, congestion, sore throat, occasional cough, some difficulty breathing with my mask at work. Nothing too consistent and nothing that couldn’t also be explained by my poor sleep schedule, alcohol consumption and poor hydration at work. Decided to try and go for my normal 4 mile run and see if it caused any problems and did experience any and felt normal the next couple days.
Then Thursday while I was working my wife tells me our oldest spiked a fever, has been complaining of a headache all day and has red spots on her arms and legs. After work she didn’t have a fever and seemed to be energetic and feeling good.
Friday I was at work again and had to try and monitor from afar. No temp higher than 98 and initially feeling good in the morning. But then she felt exhausted with no appetite. When she eventually ate something, she threw it right up. I told her it was time to consider calling the pediatrician especially before the weekend but she didn’t. The rest of the day and today, she’s been back to normal and the red spots are gone.
I haven’t had any likely symptoms in days but decided to go get tested because of the close contact I have with at risk patients at work and upcoming flu clinic at a free clinic where social distancing isn’t likely. Nor expecting to come back positive but better to be safe.
Made potentially my dumbest choice of the pandemic and brought the family to an indoor water park last weekend. More accurately, didn’t put up a fight. The hotel itself was fine, masks everywhere but the waterpark obviously was another story. We kept out distance from other adults when possible but our oldest daughter is extremely social and made a lot of friends over the two days. Felt great for her to be able to do it as she’s clearly been missing it. Hopefully it won’t come back to haunt us.
Earlier this week I had what could be considered symptoms - exhaustion doing basic tasks, congestion, sore throat, occasional cough, some difficulty breathing with my mask at work. Nothing too consistent and nothing that couldn’t also be explained by my poor sleep schedule, alcohol consumption and poor hydration at work. Decided to try and go for my normal 4 mile run and see if it caused any problems and did experience any and felt normal the next couple days.
Then Thursday while I was working my wife tells me our oldest spiked a fever, has been complaining of a headache all day and has red spots on her arms and legs. After work she didn’t have a fever and seemed to be energetic and feeling good.
Friday I was at work again and had to try and monitor from afar. No temp higher than 98 and initially feeling good in the morning. But then she felt exhausted with no appetite. When she eventually ate something, she threw it right up. I told her it was time to consider calling the pediatrician especially before the weekend but she didn’t. The rest of the day and today, she’s been back to normal and the red spots are gone.
I haven’t had any likely symptoms in days but decided to go get tested because of the close contact I have with at risk patients at work and upcoming flu clinic at a free clinic where social distancing isn’t likely. Nor expecting to come back positive but better to be safe.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I cant imagine being so defensive about a foreign country's public health department that I would literally tie myself in knots and trip over my own words while stroking them.
They literally said that scientific evidence confirms it is spread by droplets.
They didn't say mainly, mostly, majority, or any other term that at least leaves open other possibilities. They of course don't cite any of this scientific evidence that confirms it. And of course neither do you. You even acknowledged nobody knows for sure.
You are literally agreeing with me that they cant confirm it. I have no idea why you would continue to be whiny about this. That is what is obnoxious.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
I can’t imagine being so arrogant as to second guess people who spend their lives dedicated to infection control, based on whatever knowledge you’ve gleaned from the internet.
I stand by my assertion - to the extent of our understanding, there is nothing wrong with NZ’s public health statement. Confirming droplet spread does not preclude the possibility of aerosols, and getting hung up on the distinction isn’t of practical value at this point.
ETA I’ll ask again, how should NZ change infection control policies to account for aerosols?
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The Z Machine
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
Regarding the red: If your talking about "how should New Zealand's policy be altered?" -- I don't think they shouldn't change a thing. It's been a successful strategy so far, especially as regards early contact tracing when case numbers were small and readily cordoned off. Besides, it appears that NZ's ongoing mitigation measures taken against large/heavy droplet transmission have the side benefit of also mitigating against aerosol spread.
Accordingly, I'd say the same about general COVID policies in the U.S.: current best practices (masks indoors, distancing, hand washing, etc.) are effective against both large/heavy droplet transmission and aerosol spread, so staying the course seems wise.
Counterintuitively: New Zealand's number of infected is so low, their public-health officials are probably actually OK in overlooking aerosol spread. The reason? The odds of enough asymptomatic carriers randomly finding themselves in one indoor space -- enough of them to cause a "trapped indoor air" cloud of infectious COVID aerosol -- are almost certainly tiny. In New Zealand's particular situation ... there is probably a lot more to statistically worry about from an obviously sick, but traced, person (say, in one's household) than from an obviously well person out in public. That isn't necessarily the case in the U.S. right now, where COVID is more "running wild" and largely untraced.
Doug B
Footballguy
Reading for the house:
https://news.yahoo.com/wisconsin-is-battling-americas-worst-coronavirus-outbreak-and-the-states-broken-politics-is-partially-to-blame-143650745.html
I will not debate the contents of that article in this forum. The information speaks for itself.
The Kerminator
Footballguy
As a WI resident that article is spot on. And I usually lean Republican but their behavior throughout this is despicable.
sho nuff
Footballguy
This has seemed to have been repeated several times...and several people have shown it false several times...Id say, probably best to stop repeating false information and bragging about not wearing a mask in public in areas with large outbreaks.
beer 30
Footballguy
We can't agree on how to wipe our collective asses, pretty sure something a little more complicated like COVID or the flu is way, way, way out of our wheelhouse.
Neat how that works, except, apparently in WI where it has the opposite effect. Maybe they are all wearing their masks backwards?
Doug B
Footballguy
People say this here and on other forums, but no one ever backs it up with anything. Is this rock-solid true? No unusual interpretation of facts necessary? I've Googled for it in the recent past, and also perused recent Google News articles, and came up empty.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I have pointed out before that for 4-5 straight weeks after mask mandate cases went down. And it wasnt subtle. Just look at 7 day average for cases on any site that has WI data.
Cases have now skyrocketed and I dont think it makes logical sense to blame the mask mandate for that..
Something else has changed.
Eta: and honestly after reading tons and digging like crazy and just paying attention, that something is simply that people here dont give AF.
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beer 30
Footballguy
From my post it was rock solid
I don't believe that for a second. Masks work and I will wear one until we have a rock solid vaccine that doesn't make people grow a third eye.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Why not? What are the reasons that people in Wisconsin DGAF while the people in MN and MI and IL do?
glock
"Don't grumble, give a whistle!"
My son has an apartment in lower Manhattan. He was already working remotely there when he was moved by his international asset management company from NY to Milwaukee to help with a transition there just as the xxxx really hit the fan in NYC. To work IN the office.
Then it hit the fan out there. He just returned, and he tells me that the denial runs deep in Milwaukee. A big part of it has to do with the family social scene being so deeply interwoven with the local bar/brewery/restaurants and their inability or lack of desire to break that attachment.
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The WI 7 day average appears to have peaked on 7/26 at 930, 5 days before the mask mandate started on 8/1. On 8/1 the 7 day average was down to 876. If the mask mandate worked you would expect it to take 5-7 days before you could see the impact in testing. After all, the test results lag the infection date by several days. On 8/6, 5 days after the mandate, the average was down to 810. It is likely (ok, speculation on my part) it took even longer for the mask mandate to reach its peak effectiveness with whatever the highest rate of compliance ended up being in WI. It is very clear there was a trend in place before the mandate could have had an impact.
The 7 day average was pretty stable from 8/24 (665) until 9/3 (674) and then it started soaring, up to 767 on 9/4. It would be pretty easy to speculate on the timing of how that rise correlates to increasing mask use, but that is just what it would be - speculation. Kind of like speculating the masks must work and the only reason they don't is because people don't care.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
You people can’t be serious with this mask making cases go up nonsense, right?
glock
"Don't grumble, give a whistle!"
Doug B
Footballguy
All good, and I should have made a note of that in my own post.From my post it was rock solid
Fishboy
Footballguy
While the #'s can be spun to support such a claim as LTSharks posted above, it doesn't make a difference when the mask mandate went into effect. While compliance is decent here in Milwaukee and the suburbs the #'s are spiraling out of control in the central and northern part of the state. I was just up at my cabin for archery hunting and I can attest that there is 0-10% compliance at best.
So while there is a mandate in place, it simply isn't being followed. Couple that with the back to school, reopening of bars and restaurants, etc it was inevitable. I reluctantly went to a wedding 2 weekends ago and it was attended by well over 200 people and not a mask to be seen.
I can only speak for WI, but the bars are very busy and that's in both the city and rural areas that I've traveled through the past few months.
Given that the weather is now taking a turn as we head into fall/winter and everyone is now being forced inside, it's only going to get worse before it gets better.
The Kerminator
Footballguy
imho several factors are in play here in Wisconsin. As mentioned the bar scene and socializing hasn't stopped or even slowed down. I'd be willing to bet the spike in recent cases isn't tied to the timing of the mask mandate but it is tied to when the state relaxed the mandates on the capacity of bars, etc. Drive past any rural bar and the parking lots are full. The Restaurant and Bar Association is also one of the most powerful lobbyists in Madison. If not THE most powerful. They aren't closing the bars down anytime soon or even reducing capacity to necessary levels.
Many of the cases are also related to the opening of college campuses, not only at UW but also the smaller satellite schools. WI college students party. HARD. Every year out of the top 10 party schools in the nation, WI usually has about 4 schools listed. And WI takes pride in that. There was a large outbreak at these schools when they first opened and now those kids took it home with them.
Thirdly, Wisconsin is extremely divided politically. Extremely! The state government is pretty much non-operating because of this. Because of this if the democratic governor tells you something the Republicans aren't going to do it. And vice versa. They'd rather cut off their nose to spite their face.
Many of the cases are also related to the opening of college campuses, not only at UW but also the smaller satellite schools. WI college students party. HARD. Every year out of the top 10 party schools in the nation, WI usually has about 4 schools listed. And WI takes pride in that. There was a large outbreak at these schools when they first opened and now those kids took it home with them.
Thirdly, Wisconsin is extremely divided politically. Extremely! The state government is pretty much non-operating because of this. Because of this if the democratic governor tells you something the Republicans aren't going to do it. And vice versa. They'd rather cut off their nose to spite their face.
I-ROK
Footballguy
Not to mention Wisconsin wasn’t reporting their % of positive cases accurately until about a week ago
The Kerminator
Footballguy
The Kerminator
Footballguy
There is a difference between lockdowns and limiting capacity. Wisconsinites don't believe in even limiting capacity
I-ROK
Footballguy
https://www.maciverinstitute.com/2020/09/bad-math-driving-wisconsins-exploding-positive-test-rate/
Want proof of media bias? “Politifact” gave this a negative review or a pants on fire or something like that but THE NEXT DAY DHS announced this was right and they would start reporting numbers in this way
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The Kerminator
Footballguy
The article is from Sept 23. 2-1/2 weeks ago. And according to your posts they changed and started reporting it the right way. So if now they are reporting it the right way the numbers (%) should be going down. But the numbers of cases (%) have exploded, despite them reporting it the right way. And if I'm understanding it correctly, makes it way worse than it was. Before the % was around 10%, despite them not including all the test results (smaller denominator). Now that they are including all the test results (larger denominator) the per centage should be going down. But the opposite is happening. We've been consistently above 20% despite the larger denominator
I-ROK
Footballguy
Im not exactly sure when the correct reporting is going into effect to be honest. Just that they said the article was correct and they should be reporting this way
I-ROK
Footballguy
It’s funny, a buddy messaged me and said, “hey sounds bad up there how are you guys doing” I laughed and said just fine don’t believe everything you read.
The majority of the increase is on college campuses, which the risk of death in those individuals is extremely low. They were having covid parties to see how many people would get infected. They realize how silly this whole thing is for them. Plus then they get a 2 week vacation. I don’t pay any attention to that number or give it any value
The majority of the increase is on college campuses, which the risk of death in those individuals is extremely low. They were having covid parties to see how many people would get infected. They realize how silly this whole thing is for them. Plus then they get a 2 week vacation. I don’t pay any attention to that number or give it any value
The Kerminator
Footballguy
I'm resisting saying what I really want to say as that would get me a timeout.
But the numbers are out of control. And it isn't just from college campuses. Maybe so at the beginning of September when the campuses first opened. But those kids have since taken it home to every single small town throughout Wisconsin.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Appleton is not a college campus...Brown Co not just huge college town either.
Yeah, its just a vacation.
Seriously...whats the point of such a post.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Good thing those college kids don't ever leave their dorms right? They would never think of going to parties, going shopping, going to work or going to pick up food would they? Never interact with anybody besides their age group? Sheesh.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Two and a half weeks prior to the state mandate dane and milwaukee had mask mandates.
Ron Swanson
Footballguy
My wife retested yesterday after multiple days of no symptoms other than limited smell. Still positive. We'll stay quarantined and try again next week. Very thankful for very limited symptoms.
Don't Toews Me
Footballguy
Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine study paused due to unexplained illness in participant
^Not unusual as I understand it.
There was an article/case study in The Lancet regarding a 25 year old man in Nevada who contracted Covid19 twice. The second infection was more severe than the first. Important thread here from a virologist to dispel some notions. Essentially, this appears to be an exception and not the rule as most immune system's appear to be functioning normally. This Lancet article is in response to the previously mentioned case study.
This article via JAMA assesses the economic cost of Covid19 pandemic on America at $16 trillion (by fall 2021, although the article assumes the pandemic will be contained by then). It concludes that we need to re-think our approach as far as the allocation of resources.
NYT reporter Donald McNeil Jr offers some optimism regarding the pandemic here.
For those interested in more info regarding neurological symptoms emerging in Covid19 cases, this article investigating cross-reactive antibodies would pique your interest.
^Not unusual as I understand it.
There was an article/case study in The Lancet regarding a 25 year old man in Nevada who contracted Covid19 twice. The second infection was more severe than the first. Important thread here from a virologist to dispel some notions. Essentially, this appears to be an exception and not the rule as most immune system's appear to be functioning normally. This Lancet article is in response to the previously mentioned case study.
This article via JAMA assesses the economic cost of Covid19 pandemic on America at $16 trillion (by fall 2021, although the article assumes the pandemic will be contained by then). It concludes that we need to re-think our approach as far as the allocation of resources.
NYT reporter Donald McNeil Jr offers some optimism regarding the pandemic here.
For those interested in more info regarding neurological symptoms emerging in Covid19 cases, this article investigating cross-reactive antibodies would pique your interest.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
And it continued downward all the way to 45 on September 7th.
You want to argue that the decreases then had nothing to do with the masks, that's one thing. But the decreases and continued downtrends for weeks and weeks after the mask mandates were in place eliminate any rational argument that the increases are due to masks.
And I bet that you cant find a single point of data that shows mask compliance was increasing statewide steadily which is why the numbers eventually balooned.
Van Dyman
Footballguy
Hopefully not a honda...excellent article from The Lancet reviewing the public health strategies implemented in 9 different countries with reviews of results and decent (but broad) guidelines drawn from the results.
Countries should be able to learn a lot about what they should or shouldn't do based on the documented experiences of other countries. I'm aware of the argument that the US is too large and diverse to for any national strategy, but some of these things should be doable at least on a regional basis.
Link: Lessons learnt from easing COVID-19 restrictions: an analysis of countries and regions in Asia Pacific and Europe
Countries should be able to learn a lot about what they should or shouldn't do based on the documented experiences of other countries. I'm aware of the argument that the US is too large and diverse to for any national strategy, but some of these things should be doable at least on a regional basis.
Link: Lessons learnt from easing COVID-19 restrictions: an analysis of countries and regions in Asia Pacific and Europe
beer 30
Footballguy
I'm just saying the data does not show the decreases were because of masks. Maybe they helped, maybe they didn't, but the data shows there were other likely more important factors at play because of the timing of the decreases and even increases. I'm also not claiming masks increased cases even though I pointed out earlier that based on that one set of data I showed you could speculate that. I was not trying to imply the data showed that for certain, sorry if I it came across that I was. And I suspect you are correct, there would be no mask compliance increase that corresponded to cases taking off again.
top dog
Footballguy
First US citizen to be confirmed COVID positive twice. I saw in a different article earlier todayt that he is an essential worker who gets tested frequently. Was sick and positive in April, then got sick again 6 weeks after recovering and was postive again. That is probably not good news for our vaccine and/or herd immunity plans.
https://time.com/5899294/reinfection-coronavirus/
https://time.com/5899294/reinfection-coronavirus/
Doug B
Footballguy
Not necessarily. For every virus that normally confers immunity after first infection, there are a small number of people who don't get immune. Sometimes it takes more than one infection. Sometimes, it never happens.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Maybe, maybe not. There’s a small percentage of people with every virus that end up being able to catch it again. So one person getting it again isn’t necessarily unexpected or concerning on its own.
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