*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (7 Viewers)

[Terminalxylem]

Because people are stupid. I think we've covered this already.

I prefer ignorant. It’s important we point out the math whenever someone suggests that approach.

 

[gobrowns33]

OK. So 32 million in 8+ Months. Given those numbers, how long would you expect herd immunity to take if we ease restrictions? Do you not expect a vaccine to be developed in that period?

i never said herd immunity was the way to go or even a good idea to push towards...but I do expect a vaccine in the next 6 months at the latest.  I only spouted off the 80 million and 32 million numbers when someone posted statistics in this thread saying that only 8 million people in the US had contracted Covid (basically only the reported positives).  My point was that many more people have contracted it than the "reported" positive cases.

The only restriction we really have is to wear a mask in public, inside...and no large gatherings...other than that business as usual.

 

[Tolstoy]

i never said herd immunity was the way to go or even a good idea to push towards...but I do expect a vaccine in the next 6 months at the latest.  I only spouted off the 80 million and 32 million numbers when someone posted statistics in this thread saying that only 8 million people in the US had contracted Covid (basically only the reported positives).  My point was that many more people have contracted it than the "reported" positive cases.

The only restriction we really have is to wear a mask in public, inside...and no large gatherings...other than that business as usual.

probably more likely that it becomes endemic

 

[[icon]]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/people-with-medical-conditions.html

People with asthma MAY BE at higher risk, and ARE more likely to have been taking extra precautions because they don't know whether they're at higher risk. 

 Correct. 

It (kinda) works in Sweden because they are way smarter than the average American. 

Sadly the people who run around bragging about Sweden "working" are, Almost without exception, the same people who are the very reason it wouldn't work here. 

 

[Battersbox]

 Correct. 

It (kinda) works in Sweden because they are way smarter than the average American. 

Sadly the people who run around bragging about Sweden "working" are, Almost without exception, the same people who are the very reason it wouldn't work here. 

I think it's working, and you don't know a single thing about me. Blanket statements don't really work when discussing Covid-19 and all that pertain to it.

 

[CR69]

I think it's working, and you don't know a single thing about me. Blanket statements don't really work when discussing Covid-19 and all that pertain to it.

I'm confused, you think it's working in Sweden or here?

 

[[icon]]

I think it's working, and you don't know a single thing about me. Blanket statements don't really work when discussing Covid-19 and all that pertain to it.

Okay help me know you. Let's see if you fall into that group. 

If you were President what would you have done differently over the last 10 months? (Starting in Early January) 

What do you think is the appropriate approach to covid right now? 

What about that approach should change if cases increase substantially over the next month? 

 

 

[Battersbox]

Okay help me know you. Let's see if you fall into that group. 

If you were President what would you have done differently over the last 10 months? (Starting in Early January) 

What do you think is the appropriate approach to covid right now? 

What about that approach should change if cases increase substantially over the next month? 

 

If I had been President, I'd have avoided putting my foot in my mouth countless times. I'd not have downplayed the severity of the virus as a gut reaction. I would have restricted travel from out of the country (which I guess he did to some extent). I would have kept my mouth shut about masks, because it's a stupid issue.

Frankly, I'd have left it to individual states to handle appropriately as they saw fit. I happen to be in a state where I don't think it's been handled very well, but it hasn't been all bad either.

I wouldn't endorse tighter restrictions due to rising cases at all. I would endorse tighter restrictions if hospitalizations increased to the point where overload might lead to unnecessary suffering and death. I would absolutely promote sending kids back to school to the fullest extent possible. 

So, am I a stupid American? Do you want to weigh me against a duck too? 

What would you do?

 

[Cold Dead Hands]

If I had been President, I'd have avoided putting my foot in my mouth countless times. I'd not have downplayed the severity of the virus as a gut reaction. I would have restricted travel from out of the country (which I guess he did to some extent). I would have kept my mouth shut about masks, because it's a stupid issue.

Frankly, I'd have left it to individual states to handle appropriately as they saw fit. I happen to be in a state where I don't think it's been handled very well, but it hasn't been all bad either.

I wouldn't endorse tighter restrictions due to rising cases at all. I would endorse tighter restrictions if hospitalizations increased to the point where overload might lead to unnecessary suffering and death. I would absolutely promote sending kids back to school to the fullest extent possible. 

So, am I a stupid American? Do you want to weigh me against a duck too? 

What would you do?

For one, I want you to get your own avatar.

 

[Battersbox]

For one, I want you to get your own avatar.

Hahaha, it is MY avatar.

Despite my low number of posts, I've been here longer than you.

 

[AndrewClark]

If I had been President, I'd have avoided putting my foot in my mouth countless times. I'd not have downplayed the severity of the virus as a gut reaction. I would have restricted travel from out of the country (which I guess he did to some extent). I would have kept my mouth shut about masks, because it's a stupid issue.

Frankly, I'd have left it to individual states to handle appropriately as they saw fit. I happen to be in a state where I don't think it's been handled very well, but it hasn't been all bad either.

I wouldn't endorse tighter restrictions due to rising cases at all. I would endorse tighter restrictions if hospitalizations increased to the point where overload might lead to unnecessary suffering and death. I would absolutely promote sending kids back to school to the fullest extent possible. 

So, am I a stupid American? Do you want to weigh me against a duck too? 

What would you do?

Is there a different avatar you could use?

 

[Battersbox]

Is there a different avatar you could use?

Really?

 

[[icon]]

If I had been President, I'd have avoided putting my foot in my mouth countless times. I'd not have downplayed the severity of the virus as a gut reaction. I would have restricted travel from out of the country (which I guess he did to some extent). I would have kept my mouth shut about masks, because it's a stupid issue.

Frankly, I'd have left it to individual states to handle appropriately as they saw fit. I happen to be in a state where I don't think it's been handled very well, but it hasn't been all bad either.

I wouldn't endorse tighter restrictions due to rising cases at all. I would endorse tighter restrictions if hospitalizations increased to the point where overload might lead to unnecessary suffering and death. I would absolutely promote sending kids back to school to the fullest extent possible. 

So, am I a stupid American? Do you want to weigh me against a duck too? 

What would you do?

Not bad but we disagree in some key areas. I applaud you for actually answering though. 
 

While I'm not big on government, this is one area they earn their keep. Our response should have been more nationalized. States shouldn't have been bidding against each other for resources. The only people who won there were brokers hawking containerloads of supplies to the highest bidder.

We are the wealthiest nation on earth we should not have been losing massive amounts of resources to other nations. A cousin of mine is a broker dealing by the containerload.... said US procurement was a ####show. 

We completely squandered our head start from China and Italy. Complete and total failure from the top down. 

The federal government should have launched a clearly communicated, county-based, tiered shutdown based on quantitative data (new cases /positivity rate / hospitalizations / healthcare capacity)... in February.

Cases getting worse? Tighten up. Cases get better? Open up. Get ahead of it, stay ahead of it. That should still be in place now and until this passes. 

Leadership should have been guided by science, with input factored in from economists. We didn't do that. 

Yes the mask stance and lack of consistent science-based message from Leadership ####ed us. 

Don't even get me started on testing. 

Waiting until hospitals are at capacity (a lagging indicator) is like waiting until a swimming pool is full before sending someone to walk up the hill to turn off the water. Never use lagging indicators for stuff like the. 

Considering the most recent studies are indicating kids are key drivers of spread, going back to school (as most are set up now) is a problem. Schooling from home should have been, and should continue to be the default..  with a scaled, fee-based backup plan to cover for parents who simply can't handle kids.  Allow communities to build home school "centers" with state government oversight on santizarion and education). 

There's a good bit more but I'll pause there  

Define "Unnecessary suffering and death"... that's a curious way to phrase that. 

What aspects, specifically, do you like about Sweden's approach? 

 

[Battersbox]

Not bad but we disagree in some key areas. I applaud you for actually answering though. 
 

While I'm not big on government, this is one area they earn their keep. Our response should have been more nationalized. States shouldn't have been bidding against each other for resources. The only people who won there were brokers hawking containerloads of supplies to the highest bidder.

We are the wealthiest nation on earth we should not have been losing massive amounts of resources to other nations. A cousin of mine is a broker dealing by the containerload.... said US procurement was a ####show. 

We completely squandered our head start from China and Italy. Complete and total failure from the top down. 

The federal government should have launched a clearly communicated, county-based, tiered shutdown based on quantitative data (new cases /positivity rate / hospitalizations / healthcare capacity)... in February.

Cases getting worse? Tighten up. Cases get better? Open up. Get ahead of it, stay ahead of it. That should still be in place now and until this passes. 

Yes the mask stance and lack of consistent science-based message from Leadership ####ed us. 

Don't even get me started on testing. 

Waiting until hospitals are at capacity (a lagging indicator) is like waiting until a swimming pool is full before sending someone to walk up the hill to turn off the water. Never use lagging indicators for stuff like the. 

Considering the most recent studies are indicating kids are key drivers of spread, going back to school (as most are set up now) is a problem. 

Define "Unnecessary suffering and death"... that's a curious way to phrase that. 

Unnecessary suffering and death in this context to me would mean people not getting the healthcare they need because there simply isn't healthcare capacity to treat them. Thus far, that hasn't happened, even when we were caught flat-footed in the spring. 

You say 'Cases getting worse, tighten up, Cases getting better, open up'. I agree with that to an extent. However, not all 'cases' are the same. If they were, why would the CFR continue to fall as it has?

Every closure brings with it negative consequences that are real but difficult to measure, due to unemployment, delayed healthcare for other reasons (screenings, treatments, etc). Kids not being in school and living their normal lives is the greatest consequence of all. I'm in the camp that believes we are doing irreparable harm to countless young people. It made sense in the spring on a limited basis, I don't believe it makes sense now. Too often people operate from a basis that this all was avoidable. I personally don't think it was, I think it's mother nature and we've compounded the damage.

As far as procurement of necessary items, etc, yes we made mistakes. I don't pretend to know much about those details. I do know that some of the things we thought were vital months ago weren't as key as everyone thought.

 

[Clown Car]

 Allow communities to build home school "centers" with state government oversight on santizarion and education). 

Aren’t these “schools”?

 

[[icon]]

Unnecessary suffering and death in this context to me would mean people not getting the healthcare they need because there simply isn't healthcare capacity to treat them. Thus far, that hasn't happened, even when we were caught flat-footed in the spring. 

You say 'Cases getting worse, tighten up, Cases getting better, open up'. I agree with that to an extent. However, not all 'cases' are the same. If they were, why would the CFR continue to fall as it has?

Every closure brings with it negative consequences that are real but difficult to measure, due to unemployment, delayed healthcare for other reasons (screenings, treatments, etc). Kids not being in school and living their normal lives is the greatest consequence of all. I'm in the camp that believes we are doing irreparable harm to countless young people. It made sense in the spring on a limited basis, I don't believe it makes sense now. Too often people operate from a basis that this all was avoidable. I personally don't think it was, I think it's mother nature and we've compounded the damage.

As far as procurement of necessary items, etc, yes we made mistakes. I don't pretend to know much about those details. I do know that some of the things we thought were vital months ago weren't as key as everyone thought.

I think I made it pretty clear in my post that the metric for throttling the economy was more in depth than cases, and is sufficiently accurate that many less resourceful nations have managed to pull it off. Most of them have far fewer cases and fatalities per capita.
 

CFR is declining mostly due to a global network of brilliant medical minds developing better treatment plans due to 8 months of experience treating it. I also believe the science associating initial viral load with case severity may indicate cases are getting less severe due to that phenomenon... fueled by mask use as well as distancing wind other COVID protocols. 

I think there should be fines associated with failure to comply with mask use (covering nose and mouth, like other counties) and other protocols. Files should get exponentially stiffer, and include jail time for repeat/egregious offenders. 

If Kids missing a in-person year of so of school is the worst hardship they have to "endure", they'll live. Spare me the melodrama on that, lest I point to some past generational inconveniences that we survived. Kids can still socialize.. in groups/locations in line with health protocol. 
 

 

[[icon]]

Aren’t these “schools”?

More referring to smaller scale here. Friend/family groups... neighborhoods... church groups....etc.

I'm fine with a fallback use of the school with strict capacity/etc  rules in place... with the understanding that most kids would be at home, or in smaller community groups. 
 

The process is secondary. The point is crowded anything... in areas where cases/hospitalizations/positivity is climbing... is bad 

 

[[icon]]

Unnecessary suffering and death in this context to me would mean people not getting the healthcare they need because there simply isn't healthcare capacity to treat them. Thus far, that hasn't happened, even when we were caught flat-footed in the spring. 

So certain hospitals effectively being forced to ration care to patients with better prognosis, and having to use refrigerator trucks as pop up morgues isn't what we're talking about here? 

 

[Battersbox]

I think I made it pretty clear in my post that the metric for throttling the economy was more in depth than cases, and is sufficiently accurate that many less resourceful nations have managed to pull it off. Most of them have far fewer cases and fatalities per capita.
 

CFR is declining mostly due to a global network of brilliant medical minds developing better treatment plans due to 8 months of experience treating it. I also believe the science associating initial viral load with case severity may indicate cases are getting less severe due to that phenomenon... fueled by mask use as well as distancing wind other COVID protocols. 

I think there should be fines associated with failure to comply with mask use (covering nose and mouth, like other counties) and other protocols. Files should get exponentially stiffer, and include jail time for repeat/egregious offenders. 

If Kids missing a in-person year of so of school is the worst hardship they have to "endure", they'll live. Spare me the melodrama on that, lest I point to some past generational inconveniences that we survived. Kids can still socialize.. in groups/locations in line with health protocol. 
 

We fundamentally disagree about kids missing school and all that goes with it. You call it melodrama, that's your prerogative. I could say it's equally melodramatic when people opine that seniors and others who are most at-risk shouldn't have to bear the burden of staying safe all on their own (but I wouldn't, because I respect the opinions of others). I mean, that's the only real argument for making kids and young people sacrifice, so those more at-risk aren't alone in doing so.

I say we are robbing kids of a multitude of experiences that are hugely meaningful in the aggregate. It would make sense to make that sacrifice if the IFR was what we were told it was back in Feb/March. It's madness now. 

 

[Battersbox]

So certain hospitals effectively being forced to ration care to patients with better prognosis, and having to use refrigerator trucks as pop up morgues isn't what we're talking about here? 

Refrigerator trucks as pop up morgues are depressing and sad, but they are after the fact. As far as rationing care, I didn't see many credible reports on that, at least as far as 'John Doe would probably have made it if we'd had the necessary care for him'. And since we've been inundated with anecdotal stories about people who were young and vital succumbing to the virus, I'm sure we'd have heard more about them if they in fact had happened in a significant way.

I mean, just this week didn't Cuomo himself say NY hospitals were never overwhelmed?

 

[[icon]]

Forum crash cut me short: 

So certain hospitals effectively being forced to ration care to patients with better prognosis, and having to use refrigerator trucks as pop up morgues isn't what we're talking about here?

Cancelling any non-critical surgeries isn't what we were talking about here?

Patients being treated in poorly equipped makeshift covid wards due to lack of funding and time to set them up isn't what we're talking about here? 

Is PPE considered a component of "healthcare capacity"? If so, where do we stand on the "caught flat footed scale" on that one? 

 

[[icon]]

I could say it's equally melodramatic when people opine that seniors and others who are most at-risk shouldn't have to bear the burden of staying safe all on their own (but I wouldn't, because I respect the opinions of others). I mean, that's the only real argument for making kids and young people sacrifice, so those more at-risk aren't alone in doing so
 

This statement just confirms You are exactly who I thought you were.

Two Scenarios : Pick one. 

You start on one end of a wal-mart parking lot. You are blindfolded and must walk to the entrance of the store. If you touch a shipping cart you have a 20% chance of dying. 

SCENARIO ONE: 
There are 20 carts in random parking spaces throughout the lot 

SCENARIO TWO: 

There are 200 carts in the lot with a denser concentration In your immediate viscinity .

Now pick one. 

There's your argument. 

 

[Battersbox]

This statement just confirms You are exactly who I thought you were.

Two Scenarios : Pick one. 

You start on one end of a wal-mart parking lot. You are blindfolded and must walk to the entrance of the store. If you touch a shipping cart you have a 20% chance of dying. 

SCENARIO ONE: 
There are 20 carts in random parking spaces throughout the lot 

SCENARIO TWO: 

There are 200 carts in the lot with a denser concentration In your immediate virginity.

Now pick one. 
 

I had no pre-suppositions about you, but I'm getting a clear picture now, you're the Riddler.

 

[[icon]]

I had no pre-suppositions about you, but I'm getting a clear picture now, you're the Riddler.

No, I'm right. And that's why you ducked a clear example of why your mindset is selfish as hell. 

 

[Battersbox]

No, I'm right. And that's why you ducked a clear example of why your mindset i selfish as hell. 

Right about what? I thought we were having a discussion. 

This all began because I made a couple posts about how I thought Sweden was doing things right, clearly stating it was my opinion.

You arrogantly chimed in later and implied I was stupid. 

How does your shopping cart riddle explain a thing? 

I mean, of course I'd choose the scenario with less chance of death. What does that prove? 

 

[Battersbox]

No, I'm right. And that's why you ducked a clear example of why your mindset i selfish as hell. 

And how is my mindset selfish? I'm more at risk than kids, isn't that the opposite of selfish? I would argue your casual acceptance of harm to kids is selfish, or at least dismissal of valid concerns about their well-being is uber selfish.

 

[[icon]]

How does your shopping cart riddle explain a thing? 

I mean, of course I'd choose the scenario with less chance of death. What does that prove? 

I'm kinda shocked I have to spell this out for you. 
 

It is a clear cut argument for young people "sacrificing" by being responsible and complying with restrictions even though they're not at risk.

Everyone who "sacrifies" is an open parking spot. 

Everyone who doesn't, is a a shopping cart. 

And the people in the spaces immediately surrounding that elderly person... well, there is a special place in hell for those particular people who decide to be shopping carts. 

It's not just about you. When EVERYONE does the right thing, we can all walk around much much more freely.

 

[Battersbox]

I'm kinda shocked I have to spell this out for you. 
 

It is a clear cut argument for young people "sacrificing" by being responsible and complying with restrictions even though they're not at risk.

Everyone who "sacrifies" is an open parking spot. 

Everyone who doesn't, is a a shopping cart. 

And the people in the spaces immediately surrounding the elderly... well, there is a special place in hell for those people who decide to be shopping carts. 

Your analogy wasn't clear to me. I guess if you had said 'put yourself in the shoes of an elderly person', I might have got it.

Regardless, there are other ways to get care and goods to the elderly than making them haul themselves to Wal-Mart. I mean, you propose setting up community centers that aren't schools for kids, etc. Why is that any different than setting up delivery systems for anyone who needs to stay sheltered? Each idea is as feasible as the other. Not to mention delineated shopping times for seniors and things like that (which have been done in many instances around the country).

You analogy isn't fair for other reasons as well, mainly because you 100% ignore the effects 'sacrifices' have on those who make them. Again, if you don't believe there are harmful ramifications for kids missing out on a year of their youth, that's your opinion. I think it's hugely meaningful.

I will add: not all 'sacrifices' are equal. You might think I just want young people to be able to party in bars non-stop, etc. That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about pre-teens and teens who need socialization and aren't getting it. I'm talking about the ones who need after school clubs and extra-curriculars to just have friends. The ones who aren't toddlers and can't just get a couple hours at the local park to blow off steam anymore. These kids are legion, and this is awful for them.

 

[LTsharks]

Thanks for reminding me about that data. And thank goodness my state behaves much better!

Reminding you about the data?  I'm shocked anyone still looks at websites like this and calls it "data".  This is complete garbage.  

I live in Delaware.  I will us it as an example:

- 554 deaths on 7/1.  636 on 10/1.  Increase of 82 in 3 months. Projecting 934 on 1/1, an increase of 298 in the next 3 months.   Yet in DE we have had 60% of the deaths in long term care facilities.  That ratio can't continue and yet this "data" suggests it will increase.  

- It says we have 76% mask usage as of today.  So shouldn't that be the end of cases in DE?  Why are they going up if we have mask usage? 

- These projections have been garbage since day 1 and this is just another example. 

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Reminding you about the data?  I'm shocked anyone still looks at websites like this and calls it "data".  This is complete garbage.  

I live in Delaware.  I will us it as an example:

- 554 deaths on 7/1.  636 on 10/1.  Increase of 82 in 3 months. Projecting 934 on 1/1, an increase of 298 in the next 3 months.   Yet in DE we have had 60% of the deaths in long term care facilities.  That ratio can't continue and yet this "data" suggests it will increase.  

- It says we have 76% mask usage as of today.  So shouldn't that be the end of cases in DE?  Why are they going up if we have mask usage? 

- These projections have been garbage since day 1 and this is just another example. 

Which data is garbage?

In your above post, I would suggest the mask usage is the most suspect data.  It’s probably based on some type of survey — and we know that people lie quite often when participating in a survey.  They give answers that are acceptable  rather than answers that are fully honest.

 

[[icon]]

Your analogy wasn't clear to me. I guess if you had said 'put yourself in the shoes of an elderly person', I might have got it.

Regardless, there are other ways to get care and goods to the elderly than making them haul themselves to Wal-Mart.

 Jesus Christ, you seriously still don't get the metaphor. 

I give up. Ignore, it is.
 

Wow.     

 

[Battersbox]

 Jesus Christ, you seriously still don't get the metaphor. 

I give up. Ignore, it is.
 

Wow.     

Now who's being melodramatic? The metaphor sucked, but I tried to play along in the interest of further discussion. Ignoring seems to be your preferred method (like the countless kids and people on the fringe of society who suffer due to the sacrifices they are forced to make). I'm sorry you can't focus on more than one problem at a time.

 

[culdeus]

Additional news on how we've gotten better at treating this thing.  

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/20/925441975/studies-point-to-big-drop-in-covid-19-death-rates

 

[Terminalxylem]

i never said herd immunity was the way to go or even a good idea to push towards...but I do expect a vaccine in the next 6 months at the latest.  I only spouted off the 80 million and 32 million numbers when someone posted statistics in this thread saying that only 8 million people in the US had contracted Covid (basically only the reported positives).  My point was that many more people have contracted it than the "reported" positive cases.

The only restriction we really have is to wear a mask in public, inside...and no large gatherings...other than that business as usual.

OK, sorry. Usually when people make exaggerated claims about the number of people infected with covid, there’s the suggestion we’re much closer to herd immunity than advertised. I just want people to realize it’s a looong way away without a vaccine, even if restrictions are removed completely.

And most reportable illness stats don’t include every case. For comparison purposes, flu numbers are calculated largely from mathematically models based on the number of reported influenza like illnesses (=fever + cough or sore throat), not necessarily documented test positivity. But those models don’t automatically exist for novel infections like covid, so it makes sense to use confirmed infections as a starting point. As has been pointed out several times in this thread, population level antibody testing is a better gauge, but even that is fraught with false positives when community prevalence is low. So it’s an imperfect science, and politics have made it even worse. 

In the context of those limitations and test availability, how would you prefer covid numbers be determined?

 

[parasaurolophus]

School opening article

 

[Terminalxylem]

@bostonfredI don't think the asthma thing is proven out.  Though I get the point you are making above.  I think most of the risk is some function of Age and BMI, the remaining pre-existing conditions are more or less noise or have hazard ratios you can't measure with out a few leading 0s.  

I don't mean to nitpick but I see your post as part of the problem, people don't really understand who is at risk, and this has not been communicated clearly at the US level for sure.

You’re right about asthma, but there are many other comorbidities with high risk of covid complications. There’s an article I linked several pages ago that shows the HR. Cardiovascular disease (not just hypertension) is a big one, for example.

ETA This study - check out the supplementary appendix pages 9-11: CV dz OR 5.39, kidney disease 10.19, diabetes 4.15, etc. For comparison, age 55-65 10.91, 65-75 66.7 and BMI 30+ 1.97, 40+ 6.20.

 

[Doug B]

School opening article

Why not post a synposis?

Are The Risks Of Reopening Schools Exaggerated? (NPR, 10/21/2020)

Despite widespread concerns, two new international studies show no consistent relationship between in-person K-12 schooling and the spread of coronavirus. And a third study from the United States shows no elevated risk to childcare workers who stayed on the job.

Combined with anecdotal reports from a number of U.S. states where schools are open, as well as a crowdsourced dashboard of around 2000 U.S. schools, some medical experts are saying it's time to shift the discussion from the risks of opening K-12 schools to the risks of keeping them closed.

"As a pediatrician, I am really seeing the negative impacts of these school closures on children," Dr. Danielle Dooley, a medical director at Children's National Hospital in Washington, D.C., told NPR. She ticked off mental health problems, hunger, obesity due to inactivity, missing routine medical care and the risk of child abuse — on top of the loss of education. "Going to school is really vital for children. They get their meals in school, their physical activity, their health care, their education, of course."

EDIT: Didn't realize that the article was actually kind of equivocal -- the next two paragraphs:

While agreeing that emerging data is encouraging, other experts said the United States as a whole has made little progress toward practices that would allow schools to make reopening safer — from rapid and regular testing, to contact tracing to identify the source of outbreaks, to reporting school-associated cases publicly, regularly and consistently.

"We are driving with the headlights off, and we've got kids in the car," said Melinda Buntin, chair of the Department of Health Policy at Vanderbilt School of Medicine, who has argued for reopening schools with precautions.

 

[-arcK-]

El Paso getting just run over:

https://i.redd.it/cou3i9htd5u51.png

The city is talking about much stricter measures now. Supposed to be a press conference soon.

I heard on the radio this morning that we are just about the worst in the country at social distancing, based on cellphone proximity data. And that doesn't surprise me... Although people here are extremely good about wearing masks out in public, they are terrible about having family+friends get-togethers where they don't wear masks. El Pasoans are all about backyard parties.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Unnecessary suffering and death in this context to me would mean people not getting the healthcare they need because there simply isn't healthcare capacity to treat them. Thus far, that hasn't happened, even when we were caught flat-footed in the spring. 

You say 'Cases getting worse, tighten up, Cases getting better, open up'. I agree with that to an extent. However, not all 'cases' are the same. If they were, why would the CFR continue to fall as it has?

Every closure brings with it negative consequences that are real but difficult to measure, due to unemployment, delayed healthcare for other reasons (screenings, treatments, etc). Kids not being in school and living their normal lives is the greatest consequence of all. I'm in the camp that believes we are doing irreparable harm to countless young people. It made sense in the spring on a limited basis, I don't believe it makes sense now. Too often people operate from a basis that this all was avoidable. I personally don't think it was, I think it's mother nature and we've compounded the damage.

As far as procurement of necessary items, etc, yes we made mistakes. I don't pretend to know much about those details. I do know that some of the things we thought were vital months ago weren't as key as everyone thought.

Look at our total deaths, including deaths in excess of the average year. There’s a lot of extra deaths coinciding with covid’s early wave, but now we’ve settled pretty close to the expected curve (actually below it for the week ending October 3). Why? We’re doing a lot better treating covid, so less covid peeps are dying, and all the concerns about people dying from deferred healthcare appear overblown thus far.

 

[Terminalxylem]

 Correct. 

It (kinda) works in Sweden because they are way smarter than the average American. 

Sadly the people who run around bragging about Sweden "working" are, Almost without exception, the same people who are the very reason it wouldn't work here. 

It doesn’t kinda work in Sweden. The have much higher mortality than neighboring countries, an economy that isn’t doing better, rising cases and are nowhere near herd immunity. 

Why can’t we emulate places that are actually doing a good job instead - Australia, S Korea, Japan, etc.? Since when did Sweden become a model for our behavior?

To be fair, I know we are too damn proud to learn from anyone else, and too damn selfish to protect the vulnerable. Our culture really sucks sometimes.

 

[Doug B]

The one thing -- one -- that Sweden has accomplished is keeping deaths flat over recent months. Look at Sweden's two "deaths" graphs at Worldometers -- they took an immense death hit through June, but have been flat for a good three months now.

That said, it's hardly been a success story in aggregate. And now, gradually, their case counts are accelerating. Maybe the younger & healthier portion of their population can absorb these cases (in aggregate) and the long-haul effects and the deaths won't increase markedly in Sweden. We'll see.

 

[beer 30]

Why can’t we emulate places that are actually doing a good job instead - Australia, S Korea, Japan, etc.? Since when did Sweden become a model for our behavior?

To be fair, I know we are too damn proud to learn from anyone else, and too damn selfish to protect the vulnerable. Our culture really sucks sometimes.

I think you answered your own question. I don't get it, doesn't seem like a hard thing to get our heads around but here we are. I said a while ago, I gave up on the debates and just focus on me & mine. Mask up, hand sanitizer, frequent hand washing, limiting exposure. The rest of you want to run around naked & free, be my guest. Just stay outta my house.

 

[culdeus]

You’re right about asthma, but there are many other comorbidities with high risk of covid complications. There’s an article I linked several pages ago that shows the HR. Cardiovascular disease (not just hypertension) is a big one, for example.

ETA This study - check out the supplementary appendix pages 9-11: CV dz OR 5.39, kidney disease 10.19, diabetes 4.15, etc. For comparison, age 55-65 10.91, 65-75 66.7 and BMI 30+ 1.97, 40+ 6.20.

I have a hard time buying that CVdz/Kidney disease are independent of BMI.  There is a lot of data skewing right now born out of the fact that 60% of this country is simply fat as hell.  

It's going to be hard to find a normal weight CVdz person anywhere in the US, let alone one with kidney disease.  The same issues abounded when trying to de-skew smoking from heart disease in the 90s/00s as people were quitting smoking.

 

[top dog]

Look at our total deaths, including deaths in excess of the average year. There’s a lot of extra deaths coinciding with covid’s early wave, but now we’ve settled pretty close to the expected curve (actually below it for the week ending October 3). Why? We’re doing a lot better treating covid, so less covid peeps are dying, and all the concerns about people dying from deferred healthcare appear overblown thus far.

Thanks for the link. This is great data. 

 

[dgreen]

...but now we’ve settled pretty close to the expected curve (actually below it for the week ending October 3)...

Won't those numbers increase a little over time? CDC has this note: Data in recent weeks are incomplete. Only 60% of death records are submitted to NCHS within 10 days of the date of death, and completeness varies by jurisdiction.

It doesn't say when they consider data to be 100% (or close enough to 100%), but they have that note on data going back to February 1, 2020.

 

[nirad3]

Won't those numbers increase a little over time? CDC has this note: Data in recent weeks are incomplete. Only 60% of death records are submitted to NCHS within 10 days of the date of death, and completeness varies by jurisdiction.

It doesn't say when they consider data to be 100% (or close enough to 100%), but they have that note on data going back to February 1, 2020.

CDC = Can't Decide on Crap

 

[Battersbox]

The one thing -- one -- that Sweden has accomplished is keeping deaths flat over recent months. Look at Sweden's two "deaths" graphs at Worldometers -- they took an immense death hit through June, but have been flat for a good three months now.

That said, it's hardly been a success story in aggregate. And now, gradually, their case counts are accelerating. Maybe the younger & healthier portion of their population can absorb these cases (in aggregate) and the long-haul effects and the deaths won't increase markedly in Sweden. We'll see.

Agreed. Their deaths per million number hasn't really moved since June. They've admitted their approach right out of the gate was faulty. However, they've had the lighter restrictions for basically 6 months now and it's been fine. 

Cases are rising again, true. Obviously there is some seasonality involved here. Hopefully it won't become a massive issue. Perhaps they'll make localized changes if the data merits, but doesn't the 5 month stretch of good data prove, at least to some degree, they were correct in not enacting draconian measures?

 

[Terminalxylem]

Won't those numbers increase a little over time? CDC has this note: Data in recent weeks are incomplete. Only 60% of death records are submitted to NCHS within 10 days of the date of death, and completeness varies by jurisdiction.

It doesn't say when they consider data to be 100% (or close enough to 100%), but they have that note on data going back to February 1, 2020.

Yes, but the downtrend is pretty clear, isn't it?

 

[Terminalxylem]

I have a hard time buying that CVdz/Kidney disease are independent of BMI.  There is a lot of data skewing right now born out of the fact that 60% of this country is simply fat as hell.  

It's going to be hard to find a normal weight CVdz person anywhere in the US, let alone one with kidney disease.  The same issues abounded when trying to de-skew smoking from heart disease in the 90s/00s as people were quitting smoking.

Don't know what to tell you. Without looking at each individual study, I'm guessing they accounted for confounding variables. Plus the risk ratios exceed those of obesity for many conditions. And most of those diseases increase the risk of death from influenza, so it's not like high risk comorbidities is a new concept.

 

[Terminalxylem]

@culdeus you are making a point I'm not rebutting. I stand by what I said in the context of the post you responded to, which is that people with asthma and other conditions MAY BE at higher risk, and ARE more likely to have been taking precautions, so the total population of people taking higher precautions will generally be at the same or higher risk than the population who haven't.  

I also appreciate the work you're putting in to explain the currently known risk factors.  It may end up that the only meaningful factors are age and weight. I suspect that those will not be the only factors when all is said and done, and that's not the current guidance, but it may end up being the case. 

No need to continue. 

Definitely not the case. Look at the data I linked in my discussion with culdeus the last couple pages.