Good chart here from the CDC, summarizing another thing I've been wondering about.
They estimate that only about 25% of COVID cases have been reported. As of the end of Sept that suggested 146MM cases in the US. 166MM would be 50% of the country -- and I think we're probably somewhere close to that total now.
They also estimate that about 1/4 COVID deaths are unreported. Which would put us right around 1.066MM in total (
vs 800k officially reported).
Here's the good news...
If 50% of the country has had COVID and we've had 1MM deaths, the overall rate of COVID-positive fatalities is around 0.64% (1.07MM/166MM -- which is suprisingly close to what (IMO) was the best estimate in March or April of last year, .68%).
And if you're under 65 years old, your rate is likely lower than that (
deaths among 50-65 year olds index at 89% of the national average. It obviously gets a lot better as you get younger from there).
The vaccine + booster provide something like 80%-90% protection vs infection and
a risk- adjusted estimate of 50% protection from the worst outcomes if you DO get infected.
So... putting all that together...
If you're otherwise healthy (not diabetic, not immunocompromised, etc), vaxxed and boosted, and 50-65, your (i.e. my) math probably looks something like...
A 10%-20% chance of a breakthrough infection and a 0.285% (.64% * 89% * 50%) chance of dying if you are infected.
Very roughly, a 1/1,750 to 1/3,500 chance of dying of COVID as a true baseline.
But to the degree you reduce your chances of getting COVID through other interventions like masking in public places, those odds get even better. Say 1/2,500 to 1/5,000. (Maybe those odds above are equal to the lifetime chances of being in a pedestrian accident with a car, but, hey, I look both ways before I cross the street too.)
And a pill may soon cut those risks even more. 50% on top of everything above would push the overall odds into the 1/5,000 to 1/10,000 range. And much much better than that if you're young.
(All directional, but probably not wrong by orders of magnitude or anything. It does assume that everyone not vaxxed would eventually get COVID though.)