*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (12 Viewers)

[jobarules]

Is the booster more effective vs Omicron because of timing of the shot (in other words the first 2 shots immunity waned) or because its a higher quantity of the vaccine in your body?

In other words, if person A got his 2nd shot today and person B got his booster today, will both people be equally protected 2 weeks from now?

 

[Doug B]

Does anyone have a link to any data that shows Omicron impacts unvaccinated people less than Delta does?

All I've seen were hospitalizations for Omicron in South America were 29% lower than previous variants when factoring in vaccinations.

Yeah, what Dinsy is asking about would require the opposite: a good amount of data separating unvaccinated results from vaccinated results.

 

[Doug B]

In other words, if person A got his 2nd shot today and person B got his booster today, will both people be equally protected 2 weeks from now?

My suspicion is that person A & B would, in fact, be close to equally protected. Hard to put firm efficacy percentages on it, of course.

This is why, to me, COVID vaccinations look like a semi-annual thing until the prevailing strain(s) calm down in the future.

 

[Navin Johnson]

Read the thread dude. Im not gonna do the work FOR you

You made the claim chief.  Making me find it is me doing the work for you.  

 

[Navin Johnson]

dpd

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Is the booster more effective vs Omicron because of timing of the shot (in other words the first 2 shots immunity waned) or because its a higher quantity of the vaccine in your body?

In other words, if person A got his 2nd shot today and person B got his booster today, will both people be equally protected 2 weeks from now?

These are great questions.   Wish the media and experts were pushing harder to answer these questions.  Maybe they are and it just isn’t being reported though.

 

[TLEF316]

Booster scheduled for Thursday. (despite having to navigate the nightmare that is the New Jersey COVID vax website....).

Do I think its kinda unnecessary for me (as a 38 year old perfectly healthy person) to get a booster for a variant that appears to be very mild from a severity standpoint (not dismissing how quickly it is spreading...but people aren't getting very sick)?.......Sure. But at the end of the day, I'm trying to be part of the solution and dont want to put myself in a position where policies shift (requiring proof of booster for me to go somewhere) and get screwed.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

No ... have you run across anyone claiming that elsewhere?

No!  Just approximately one million instances people are saying "it's milder".

But if it kills just as many unvaxxed AND breaks through to the vaccinated at a much higher rate I'm not sure "milder" is the word I'd choose.

 

[FBG26]

Wonder if I can score a Moderna booster given the news. I'm Team Pfizer. Team P####ed, really. 

I was Team Pfizer but did a Moderna booster. FWIW, I didn't have any side effects from the first two Pfizer shots, but had very minor symptoms (upset stomach, tired) for about 24 hours from the Moderna booster. 

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Booster scheduled for Thursday. (despite having to navigate the nightmare that is the New Jersey COVID vax website....).

Do I think its kinda unnecessary for me (as a 38 year old perfectly healthy person) to get a booster for a variant that appears to be very mild from a severity standpoint (not dismissing how quickly it is spreading...but people aren't getting very sick)?.......Sure. But at the end of the day, I'm trying to be part of the solution and dont want to put myself in a position where policies shift (requiring proof of booster for me to go somewhere) and get screwed.

See the article that I posted.  Evidence is showing that Omicron is not less severe when you control for vaccination status and other variables, and you are 5x more likely to get re-infected with Omicron.  

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

My suspicion is that person A & B would, in fact, be close to equally protected. Hard to put firm efficacy percentages on it, of course.

This is why, to me, COVID vaccinations look like a semi-annual thing until the prevailing strain(s) calm down in the future.

I'm not sure that's right -- I've seen arguments that a 3-shot regimen probably should have been the plan all along.  That the 3rd shot is adding something above and beyond a "refresh".  If I see a link again I'll try post it.

 

[belljr]

Booster scheduled for Thursday. (despite having to navigate the nightmare that is the New Jersey COVID vax website....).

Do I think its kinda unnecessary for me (as a 38 year old perfectly healthy person) to get a booster for a variant that appears to be very mild from a severity standpoint (not dismissing how quickly it is spreading...but people aren't getting very sick)?.......Sure. But at the end of the day, I'm trying to be part of the solution and dont want to put myself in a position where policies shift (requiring proof of booster for me to go somewhere) and get screwed.

NJ still uses a vax site? I just booked straight through cvs

 

[TLEF316]

NJ still uses a vax site? I just booked straight through cvs

Yeah, I know you can do that. Unfortunately, none of the CVS locations near me had appointments. The whole site is a total mess. It directs you do different places that allegedly have open appointments (CVS, costco, whatever) and then when you get there...you have to search by zip code again....which then often returns conflicting info with what was on the main site.

Whatever....I got an appointment somewhere.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Thanks for that link.  I just wish that there was a source that put these things into clearer perspective.  Such as what is the normal percentage of beds full?  Do we always see a rise in usage as winter sets in following Thanksgiving?  How many are in the hospital WITH Covid versus FOR Covid?  What percentage of FOR covid are vaccinated and which version of it do they have?

Sadly our government has let us down with poor messaging and somehow we have ended up with "sides" in the covid discussion on mandates, vaccines, masks and lockdowns.  Some people I have had discourse with for years on the internet have completely flipped out in this regard.  One is a sheeple for taking the vaccine or one is an idiot for not taking the vaccine.  Very sad.  Makes honest discussion difficult.

Medium and large hospitals are always full in late fall and winter. But “full” is higher numbers than posted in that link, like 90%+ capacity, with occasional surges to 100% or more. I say this based on working at 3 large academic centers over my lifetime, a couple medium/large hybrid private/academic hospitals, and one medium private community hospital. The only hospitals with a lot of empty beds in the winter were 2 VAs, which were always dead.

I’ve never worked in small hospitals, but I think they collectively are cooking the books. They may have capacity, but don’t have the ability to take care of all patients. So open beds there are pretty meaningless. Tertiary care centers are really the litmus test of healthcare capabilities.

I also think hospital admin advertise virtual vacancy that doesn’t really mean anything, as the beds aren’t appropriate for isolation, in the hallway, etc. Or they advertise beds on the post-partum or psych wards, which can’t take care of regular patients either. They don’t want people panicking when straits are dire.

As I said upthread, my current medium/large hybrid hospital has been consistently over 100% for the last few weeks, and peaked about 115% one day, the highest I’ve ever seen our census. Personnel are extremely burnt out.

I also answered my anecdotal FROM vs. WITH covid breakdown. 95%+ of patients to date are admitted with pneumonia and low oxygen FROM covid. It’s the only reason they are admitted. Regardless, the WITH covid patients still use up isolation beds and PPE, so taking care of them is a bigger PITA than typical patients.

All that is anecdotal, of course, but I’d be curious to hear the experience of other FBG healthcare workers - one guy already agreed with me the first time I posted about hospital beds.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Putting this here for @[icon] and me:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/20/health/moderna-covid-booster-omicron.html

Edit: Lab results, antibodies only, corporate data, unreliable reporter, etc.  But still

Plus, better 5G reception!

Though, according to Leroy’s data posted, the benefit only lasts for 2 weeks?!

I’m having a hard time buying that data.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Re: the Imperial College study upthread... early days still.  Sounds like available evidence points in the direction of "not milder" when everything is controlled for, but it's not a done deal yet.

"The conclusions made are based on making assumptions about omicron where we still don't have sufficient data," Dr Dix said.

[snip]

"This is a crucial missing assumption in the modeling."

[snip]

"There is a huge amount of uncertainty in these modeled estimates, and we can only be confident about the impact of boosters against omicron when we have another month of real-world data on hospitalization ICU numbers and deaths," he said.

 

[The Commish]

Yeah, I'm bigly in favor of more at-home testing and testing in general - but I find it hard to believe that people who aren't taking Covid seriously at all up until now (no vaccine, no masks, no distancing) are all of a sudden going to start testing themselves daily.  It will help the spread with the rest of us some though.

These people absolutely lost their #### when told they had to test once a week to keep their job, and we think they'll test daily for the good of society?

Hell naw. 

It'd be a lot of wasted money even if you got them to test themselves.  Testing is one thing....doing the correct thing based on the results is another.  We really expect those pissing and moaning about taking a test to actually stay home and away from people if they get a positive result?

 

[jobarules]

Re: the Imperial College study upthread... early days still.  Sounds like available evidence points in the direction of "not milder" when everything is controlled for, but it's not a done deal yet.

South Africa hospitalization rate is only 26% fully vaccinate though and their hospitalizations have not gotten overwhelmed

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-20/south-african-covid-hospitalizations-at-8-435-with-6-7-in-icu

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/s-africa-says-hospitalizations-in-omicron-wave-much-lower

 

[Terminalxylem]

Impossible. @Terminalxylem told us every single hospital is full.

And you provided a link that NYC ED volume was up 20%, yet everything was “fine”.

 If you’d like to travel to HI, I’ll re-offer to “bring a skeptic to work”. I’ll even give you a lei, while you wait 6+ hours in the hallway of our ER, watching the bloodied traumas pass by. You can also spend a shift decked out in full PPE, so you realize how silly the people complaining about wearing a mask for a couple hours sound. Perhaps then you’ll trivialize the situation a bit less?

I can’t speak for every hospital, of course, but I don’t think my experience is too unusual for bigger academic centers at multiple points during the pandemic, including now.

 

[jobarules]

And you provided a link that NYC ED volume was up 20%, yet everything was “fine”.

 If you’d like to travel to HI, I’ll re-offer to “bring a skeptic to work”. I’ll even give you a lei, while you wait 6+ hours in the hallway of our ER, watching the bloodied traumas pass by. You can also spend a shift decked out in full PPE, so you realize how silly the people complaining about wearing a mask for a couple hours sound. Perhaps then you’ll trivialize the situation a bit less?

I can’t speak for every hospital, of course, but I don’t think my experience is too unusual for bigger academic centers at multiple points during the pandemic, including now.

You asked for a list of hospitals not currently full. You were provided numerous links and then disagreed with them based on anecdotal evidence. Sounds like something that other poster who kept talking about natural immunity would do to you several times.

 

[fruity pebbles]

And you provided a link that NYC ED volume was up 20%, yet everything was “fine”.

 If you’d like to travel to HI, I’ll re-offer to “bring a skeptic to work”. I’ll even give you a lei, while you wait 6+ hours in the hallway of our ER, watching the bloodied traumas pass by. You can also spend a shift decked out in full PPE, so you realize how silly the people complaining about wearing a mask for a couple hours sound. Perhaps then you’ll trivialize the situation a bit less?

I can’t speak for every hospital, of course, but I don’t think my experience is too unusual for bigger academic centers at multiple points during the pandemic, including now.

we are full too. ED looks like Beirut and we don’t have a single SCU bed empty……..ever. Using a second PACU unit as an extra SCU unit now. Staffing is a huge part of it as well. We could probably make the space if we had to but staffing that space is impossible. CRNAs are manning the new SCU unit now since we dropped OR cases again since there’s nowhere to put the patients. We are the only level one center in the state, lesser hospitals arent quite as busy. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

Aww man did I hurt his feelings? Jesus Christ dude. We're all adults here. Act like one.

Hes spreading misinformation about all hospitals being full based on an anecdotal story about his own hospital. It goes both ways.

My feelings are fine. And I never said all hospitals are full.

 

[Terminalxylem]

He already explained to you that the stats for his own hospital are underreported, and why he extrapolates that to a different perspective based on his own experience in healthcare.  This personal battle you keep fighting is a giant distraction from a good thread.

Sorry, I’m done with it.

 

[Terminalxylem]

No ... have you run across anyone claiming that elsewhere?

I think antivaxx people have claimed that.

 

[Scoresman]

Putting this here for @[icon] and me:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/20/health/moderna-covid-booster-omicron.html

Edit: Lab results, antibodies only, corporate data, unreliable reporter, etc.  But still

Does this apply to J+J people who got the Moderna booster (article is password protected)?  I've yet to see anything conclusive about whether these claims of mrna boosters apply to people who originally got the J+J shot.

Continue to hear how J+J is looking more and more worthless and I'm starting to wonder if my Moderna booster is just the equivalent of the first shot.  

 

[Terminalxylem]

No!  Just approximately one million instances people are saying "it's milder".

But if it kills just as many unvaxxed AND breaks through to the vaccinated at a much higher rate I'm not sure "milder" is the word I'd choose.

I don’t have time to get into the weeds to look at the location of all omicron’s  mutations, but unless there are a lot impacting virulence genes, it’s not biologically plausible that severity is reduced tremendously.

That being said, all this stuff is far more complex than one can predict based on our still limited understanding of this virus. The proof will be in the pudding watching case counts, hospitalizations and deaths over the next couple months.

 

[Doug B]

My suspicion is that person A & B would, in fact, be close to equally protected. Hard to put firm efficacy percentages on it, of course.

I'm not sure that's right -- I've seen arguments that a 3-shot regimen probably should have been the plan all along.  That the 3rd shot is adding something above and beyond a "refresh".  If I see a link again I'll try post it.

I'm not sure either, and I've seen some of the same info you mention in your last sentence.

My take was more based on a general idea that a fresh vaccination is so much better than a stale one, that being two weeks past your second shot today wasn't that much of an efficacy hit compared to being two weeks past your booster. But it's more of a spidey-sense thing, not something on which I have firm data.

You will see a lot of articles out there saying something like "Two shots offer little protection; booster protection is significant". I think those articles, though, don't account for the time component of vaccine efficacy ... and I think even when knowledgeable researchers speak to the press, they gloss over the same thing.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Impossible. @Terminalxylem told us every single hospital is full.

The best way to handle this is when you say people said things, please use the quote function. That way way we can be way more clear. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

And please, everyone be as kind as possible and dial the snarkiness and uncoolness back. This can be a good thread and we'd like to keep it alive. 

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Booster scheduled for Thursday. (despite having to navigate the nightmare that is the New Jersey COVID vax website....)

I avoided the NJ site and scheduled my booster directly through CVS.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Yeah, I know you can do that. Unfortunately, none of the CVS locations near me had appointments. The whole site is a total mess. It directs you do different places that allegedly have open appointments (CVS, costco, whatever) and then when you get there...you have to search by zip code again....which then often returns conflicting info with what was on the main site.

Whatever....I got an appointment somewhere.

Oh, you must be in NORTH Jersey. My condolences. 

 

[Zod]

Received the Pfizer shots in March but I just don't see the need to get the booster as a healthy male under 50

I ended up getting the Pfizer booster on Saturday.  Kind of wish I chose the Moderna booster now.

 

[parasaurolophus]

Does anyone have a link to any data that shows Omicron impacts unvaccinated people less than Delta does?

I think the cases and deaths in South Africa is the best you will get right now. Peak deaths generally lag peak cases by less than what people think. 

Not specific to vaxxed vs unvaxxed but SA is a largely unvaxxed area. 

 

[fatness]

Rhode Island's hospitals are not doing well, according to the president of the Rhode Island chapter of the American College of Emergency Physicians.

Confidential internal Department of Health documents obtained by The Boston Globe on Wednesday revealed that the state’s busiest emergency departments are considered “dangerously overcrowded.” The health care system uses a score called NEDOCS to measure overcrowding, from a scale that goes up to 200. Several hospitals have been consistently at 200, and the state’s largest, Rhode Island Hospital, was most recently at 198. Anything over 180 is considered “dangerously overcrowded.”

 

[GroveDiesel]

Great news for the vaxxed/boosted here:

Latest CDC data by vaccine status:

Unvaccinated: 451 cases per 100k
Vaccinated: 134 cases per 100k
Boosted: 48 cases per 100k

Unvaccinated: 6.1 deaths per 100k
Vaccinated: 0.5 deaths per 100k
Boosted: 0.1 deaths per 100k

Link

 

[fatness]

San Diego sewage testing.

On Saturday, UC San Diego officials warned that samples from the Point Loma Wastewater Treatment Plant, which processes flushed waste from two out of every three San Diegans, has the highest levels of the coronavirus that the university has seen since February. Both the Delta and Omicron variants of the virus are fueling this rise.

Researchers have consistently found that when viral levels go up in wastewater, cases usually increase within a couple weeks, putting the region on track for a sizeable surge around the start of 2022.

 

[Doug B]

Great news for the vaxxed/boosted here:

Latest CDC data by vaccine status:

Unvaccinated: 451 cases per 100k
Vaccinated: 134 cases per 100k
Boosted: 48 cases per 100k

Unvaccinated: 6.1 deaths per 100k
Vaccinated: 0.5 deaths per 100k
Boosted: 0.1 deaths per 100k

Link

Aaah ... should checked the link first. What is the source of the tweet's data? I'm looking on the CDC's site for it now, but haven't yet found it. Let me see if they have a "press release" section.

 

[jobarules]

Great news for the vaxxed/boosted here:

Latest CDC data by vaccine status:

Unvaccinated: 451 cases per 100k
Vaccinated: 134 cases per 100k
Boosted: 48 cases per 100k

Unvaccinated: 6.1 deaths per 100k
Vaccinated: 0.5 deaths per 100k
Boosted: 0.1 deaths per 100k

Link

This is only in the hospitals right? Because the testing sites here dont ask for vaccine status

 

[jobarules]

Great news for the vaxxed/boosted here:

Latest CDC data by vaccine status:

Unvaccinated: 451 cases per 100k
Vaccinated: 134 cases per 100k
Boosted: 48 cases per 100k

Unvaccinated: 6.1 deaths per 100k
Vaccinated: 0.5 deaths per 100k
Boosted: 0.1 deaths per 100k

Link

Another question, the death rate is only 0.0067%?

Oh is the 100k supposed to be population and not those testing positive?

 

[Doug B]

Aaah ... should checked the link first. What is the source of the tweet's data? I'm looking on the CDC's site for it now, but haven't yet found it. Let me see if they have a "press release" section.

Striking out. Really want to see this corroborated somewhere.

 

[Doug B]

Aaah ... should checked the link first. What is the source of the tweet's data? I'm looking on the CDC's site for it now, but haven't yet found it. Let me see if they have a "press release" section.

Striking out. Really want to see this corroborated somewhere.

Found it -- second graph on this page.

However: What the tweet doesn't venture is that the data given is as of November 20th, 2021. So it's pre-Omicron data. Good to know, but we'll need that data to continue being tracked to know how Omicron changes the game.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Aaah ... should checked the link first. What is the source of the tweet's data? I'm looking on the CDC's site for it now, but haven't yet found it. Let me see if they have a "press release" section.

Source

 

[GroveDiesel]

Another question, the death rate is only 0.0067%?

It’s per week. So 6 out of every 100k unvaccinated people die per week.

 

[Jayrod]

I'm sure it's been discussed ad nauseum, but I just have to bring it up because it is driving me nuts.

Why, in all that is holy, do people wear masks in their cars by themselves?  I can imagine only 3 scenarios that would cause someone to do this:

1. They honestly believe it is a benefit of some kind...but if that is the case, they are woefully uninformed about COVID.
   
2. They are doing it in a form of "look at me, I'm being super cautious" kind of way.  In which case, that is sad.
   
3. They didn't think to take it off ( ) or didn't care to because it would be a short time between places where they would need to wear it.  This is the only option that makes sense, but would be a very, very rare scenario.
   

I any case, I just find it so bizarre the number of times I've seen this...maybe a couple of times a week?  So freaking weird, but this whole season has just been surreal, so I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

 

[jobarules]

It’s per week. So 6 out of every 100k unvaccinated people die per week.

Doesnt really answer my question. Is the 100k Covid positive people or all people?

 

[Ron Swanson]

I'm sure it's been discussed ad nauseum, but I just have to bring it up because it is driving me nuts.

Why, in all that is holy, do people wear masks in their cars by themselves?  I can imagine only 3 scenarios that would cause someone to do this:

1. They honestly believe it is a benefit of some kind...but if that is the case, they are woefully uninformed about COVID.
   
2. They are doing it in a form of "look at me, I'm being super cautious" kind of way.  In which case, that is sad.
   
3. They didn't think to take it off ( ) or didn't care to because it would be a short time between places where they would need to wear it.  This is the only option that makes sense, but would be a very, very rare scenario.
   

I any case, I just find it so bizarre the number of times I've seen this...maybe a couple of times a week?  So freaking weird, but this whole season has just been surreal, so I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

Uber/Lyft drivers who just leave them on so they don't forget.

 

[jobarules]

I'm sure it's been discussed ad nauseum, but I just have to bring it up because it is driving me nuts.

Why, in all that is holy, do people wear masks in their cars by themselves?  I can imagine only 3 scenarios that would cause someone to do this:

1. They honestly believe it is a benefit of some kind...but if that is the case, they are woefully uninformed about COVID.
   
2. They are doing it in a form of "look at me, I'm being super cautious" kind of way.  In which case, that is sad.
   
3. They didn't think to take it off ( ) or didn't care to because it would be a short time between places where they would need to wear it.  This is the only option that makes sense, but would be a very, very rare scenario.
   

I any case, I just find it so bizarre the number of times I've seen this...maybe a couple of times a week?  So freaking weird, but this whole season has just been surreal, so I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

People are weird

 

[TLEF316]

Oh, you must be in NORTH Jersey. My condolences. 

CENTRAL Jersey. It exists....

 

[belljr]

I'm sure it's been discussed ad nauseum, but I just have to bring it up because it is driving me nuts.

Why, in all that is holy, do people wear masks in their cars by themselves?  I can imagine only 3 scenarios that would cause someone to do this:

1. They honestly believe it is a benefit of some kind...but if that is the case, they are woefully uninformed about COVID.
   
2. They are doing it in a form of "look at me, I'm being super cautious" kind of way.  In which case, that is sad.
   
3. They didn't think to take it off ( ) or didn't care to because it would be a short time between places where they would need to wear it.  This is the only option that makes sense, but would be a very, very rare scenario.
   

I any case, I just find it so bizarre the number of times I've seen this...maybe a couple of times a week?  So freaking weird, but this whole season has just been surreal, so I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

I used to think this - but back at the beginning it made more sense because they told you not to touch your mask until you got home, so I think a lot of people are still operating that way.   My daughter still wears her for "no reason" and Im like why you wearing your mask walking home from the bus.  "Oh I didn't notice"

 

[jobarules]

I'm not sure either, and I've seen some of the same info you mention in your last sentence.

My take was more based on a general idea that a fresh vaccination is so much better than a stale one, that being two weeks past your second shot today wasn't that much of an efficacy hit compared to being two weeks past your booster. But it's more of a spidey-sense thing, not something on which I have firm data.

You will see a lot of articles out there saying something like "Two shots offer little protection; booster protection is significant". I think those articles, though, don't account for the time component of vaccine efficacy ... and I think even when knowledgeable researchers speak to the press, they gloss over the same thing.

Yep I think its more of a timing thing. Check this article out

https://nypost.com/2021/12/20/biontech-ceo-says-vaccines-alone-not-enough-to-fight-omicron/ 

He predicted that those who have received the original Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and its booster will see a drop in efficacy against Omicron after a certain amount of time.

Sahin said he’s waiting for more data to confirm the findings of a German study that suggested the vaccine’s efficacy against the virus dropped about 25 percent after three months, even after three doses.