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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (12 Viewers)

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All four of us felt sick AF this morning and used our government tests.  All negative. So whatever the hell we got is not CV I suppose.  

Allergies pretty bad rn I guess.  
Don’t rule out COVID - along with the antigen tests being less accurate with Omicron (throat swab seems to be better), many aren’t testing positive until they’ve had symptoms for a few days.

Bad allergies and flu cases are pretty common right now, so no matter what it is, best to be cautious. Stay home if you can or mask up if going out.

 
Don’t rule out COVID - along with the antigen tests being less accurate with Omicron (throat swab seems to be better), many aren’t testing positive until they’ve had symptoms for a few days.

Bad allergies and flu cases are pretty common right now, so no matter what it is, best to be cautious. Stay home if you can or mask up if going out.


We've had to lay fairly low anyways. 

 
Why are we so bad at data?

Many states are scaling back on how often they report key Covid-19 statistics, a shift that some experts worry might hinder efforts to mitigate outbreaks and negative effects of the coronavirus.

A year ago, all 50 states were reporting new Covid-19 cases on a daily basis. But that has gradually trailed off. This week, Pennsylvania will be the latest state to switch from daily to weekly updates, leaving just six states that will still be reporting new Covid-19 cases every day of the week.

About half of states now report just once a week, with Florida down to every two weeks.

 
Biff84 said:
It’s weird how much you connect ‘normal’ to wearing a mask. I’ve done everything I normally do for several months, wearing a mask in certain situations hasn’t stopped me.
Weve been on this planet for how many years? How many of those had we had to wear a mask? Theres a reason people called it "the new normal".

 
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Take NJ transit into NYC a couple of times a week. Mask rule obviously ended yesterday. 

I bring a mask with me for the subway.(MTA still requires it) And I may wear it in certain situations...but at this point, I'm over it.  I'm fully vaxed and nobody close to me is at risk. I've been following the rules for 2+ years while (to some extent....we can argue about all the various variables) other peoples actions extended this thing (inconveniencing me and everyone else). 

So for now....I'm done wearing a mask unless I'm forced to or otherwise feel a need to do so. If that makes ME the jerk now, I'm ok with that.

Not minimizing that countless others have had it WAY worse than me during all of this. But going forward,  I'm in the "if you feel like you're at risk, stay home" boat.


I always have one with me bc buses & subway. Was surprised masks were required to enter a bookstore Sunday (Fort Greene/Brooklyn.) Did not see any masks at brunch. Church it was maybe5-10%?

The previous week was Easter it was packed with no opportunity to social distance. We did a combined service with a couple other congregations bc the worship team had been working on a special program with other musicians at those churches. I would say at least 20-25% were masked up, maybe even 1/3rd.

Same crowd an outdoor potluck / BBQ following service & of course no one wore a mask.

Tomorrow I’ll be in meetings all day at a site that is still requiring masks. NBD, would prefer not to but always prepared if required. We’re triple vaxxed & predisposed to believe there’s no need to be hyper vigilant. Still pay attention to stories (Shanghai, South Africa) but don’t anticipate having to worry about it.  

 
I was sure last week was going to be the moment my luck finally ran out. It was Miami Tech Week, so lots of big crowds indoors all week, and very few masks (I never wore mine). I haven't gotten tested, so its possible I had an asymptomatic case, but most likely I made it through.

At this point I still carry my mask with me most places, partly out of habit and partly in case I end up in a situation where I need it, but that really doesn't happen anymore (certainly no store in Florida is requiring them). I tend to wear it in grocery stores because it's no big deal and I'm kind of in my own world anyway (usually have headphones in at the same time). I have two flights coming up in the next two weeks, one with the family, one solo. Still not sure if I'll wear it for those.

Older son (11) still wears his at school, even though he knows he doesn't have to. Younger one (6) wanted to wear it for awhile, too, but a few weeks ago we suggested he try one day without it and he hasn't looked back. The other day I was running into the grocery store with him and asked if he wanted to wear a mask. He said no.

 
Walked into our Pre-K daughter’s class today and overheard the teacher telling another parent that the entire class is coughing and it’s like ‘an infirmary’ in the room. In a message to parents tonight she added high fever and stomach illness to the symptoms. Our daughter isn’t one of them yet but I’m sure it’s inevitable at this point. 

 
So our numbers rose a bit then steadied. They appear to be starting to come down .

Our first day back to office on Monday. So my managers manager is all excited (cause I guess she's lonely)....so they have this huge food spread. I'm like wtf are you doing. Listen I get it's probably unlikely to catch it that way but you have this huge open food layout in a small conference room with people talking and coughing.  :lmao: just felt it was odd 

It was partially gross before and felt worse now. Part of that is I have no desire to be in office

 
Oh look, another cruise that turned into the S.S. Coronavirus. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/ruby-princess-cruise-ship-princess-covid-19/

I don’t know why people continue to support the cruise industry. They’re terrible vacations, are a breeding ground for pathogens, terrible for the environment, terrible for tourism in many of the places they go. Time to pull the plug. 
Or, you can just not go on a cruise and stop telling people to not do what you don't like.

 
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Fauci declared the pandemic over
He stated that the pandemic stage in the USA is over, based on the levels of new cases, hospitalization, and deaths.  We are still at levels higher than the lows of last summer, and increasing in certain states currently.  And globally, it is still a pandemic.  He also stated we will need intermittent (probably yearly) vaccination in order to keep the virus levels down, as it is never going away.

 
Fauci declared the pandemic over
Here's the original source of this -- Fauci's interview with PBS NewsHour's Judy Woodruff yesterday evening. Both video and written transcript at that link.

The money quotes are toward the end of the interview:

Judy Woodruff:

Dr. Fauci, let me broaden this out and ask you: Here we are. It's the end of April. It's the spring of 2022. How close are we to the end of this pandemic?

Dr. Anthony Fauci:

Well, that's an unanswerable question, for the following reason. And I don't want to be evasive about it, but let me tell you why I'm giving you that answer, Judy.

We are certainly right now in this country out of the pandemic phase. Namely, we don't have 900,000 new infections a day and tens and tens and tens of thousands of hospitalizations and thousands of deaths. We are at a low level right now.

So, if you're saying, are we out of the pandemic phase in this country, we are. What we hope to do, I don't believe — and I have spoken about this widely — we're not going to eradicate this virus. If we can keep that level very low, and intermittently vaccinate people — and I don't know how often that would have to be, Judy.

That might be every year, that might be longer, in order to keep that level low. But, right now, we are not in the pandemic phase in this country. Pandemic means a widespread, throughout the world, infection that spreads rapidly among people.

So, if you look at the global situation, there's no doubt this pandemic is still ongoing.

 
Fauci maybe walked his comments back a half step earlier today (Washington Post 4/27/2022, link should be free)

The United States is finally “out of the full-blown explosive pandemic phase” that has led to nearly 1 million deaths from covid-19 and more than two years of suffering and hardship, Anthony S. Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical adviser, said Wednesday.

“We’re really in a transitional phase, from a deceleration of the numbers into hopefully a more controlled phase and endemicity,” Fauci told The Washington Post.

Fauci’s comments came a day after he told PBS’s “NewsHour” that he believed the country is “out of the pandemic phase,” and he expanded on, and clarified, that view Wednesday, making clear that the pandemic is not over and the United States could still see an increase in coronavirus infections. But the virus is no longer causing the level of hospitalization and death seen in this country in previous waves of infection.
Fauci is riding the line a bit ... but I think he was more right the first time.

 
A little surprised we hadn't cracked this one open in this thread:

The Coronavirus Has Infected More Than Half of Americans, the C.D.C. Reports (New York Times, 4/26/2022, link should be free)

Sixty percent of Americans, including 75 percent of children, had been infected with the coronavirus by February, federal health officials reported on Tuesday — another remarkable milestone in a pandemic that continues to confound expectations.

The highly contagious Omicron variant was responsible for much of the toll. In December 2021, as the variant began spreading, only half as many people had antibodies indicating prior infection, according to new research from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

While the numbers came as a shock to many Americans, some scientists said they had expected the figures to be even higher, given the contagious variants that have marched through the nation over the past two years.

There may be good news in the data, some experts said. A gain in population-wide immunity may offer at least a partial bulwark against future waves. And the trend may explain why the surge that is now roaring through China and many countries in Europe has been muted in the United States.
I think the NYT has buried the lede here a little bit. That "good news in the data" is the lynchpin of this article.

 
He stated that the pandemic stage in the USA is over, based on the levels of new cases, hospitalization, and deaths.  We are still at levels higher than the lows of last summer, and increasing in certain states currently.  And globally, it is still a pandemic.  He also stated we will need intermittent (probably yearly) vaccination in order to keep the virus levels down, as it is never going away.
I am not on board with the yearly booster at this time. There is no (or very little) data showing it's needed or beneficial beyond the current regimen. I'm seeing a lot of the experts balking over this "recommendation" (or suggestion that it might be coming) by the CDC.

 
I think it's fair for some of us to note that we predicted a year ago that we could have a boatload of "infections" among kids with no particular consequences, and that was a reason for keeping schools open.  

We were 100% right, and that was a call you could easily have made at the time just by looking at covid data for little kids.

 
wk posted a different article but to same study above, just didn't include the headline ;)
He sure did   :doh:  Sad part is, I read his link yesterday and made a mental note to follow up.

Anyway, that CDC research backs up what Dr. Jetelina wrote about recently -- the U.S. population, as a collective entity, essentially has something like herd immunity from severe COVID outcomes. As always, calculus at the individual level can differ.

 
I think it's fair for some of us to note that we predicted a year ago that we could have a boatload of "infections" among kids with no particular consequences, and that was a reason for keeping schools open.  

We were 100% right, and that was a call you could easily have made at the time just by looking at covid data for little kids.


Just going to ignore that they were a big part of the infection spread to adults this winter?

 
I think it's fair for some of us to note that we predicted a year ago that we could have a boatload of "infections" among kids with no particular consequences ...
Before Omicron gave the U.S. like-it-or-not COVID protection, kids were still effective conduits for avoidable COVID spread. Kids not being themselves affected (collectively) either wasn't or shouldn't have been part of the decision tree.

 
Just going to ignore that they were a big part of the infection spread to adults this winter?
Yes, because we also predicting that none of this would be any big deal for vaccinated people.  And we were right, of course.

I try to keep "I told you so" posts to a minimum, but this topic was really irritating to discuss a year ago because people just refused to look at the data.

 
Yes, because we also predicting that none of this would be any big deal for vaccinated people.  And we were right, of course.

I try to keep "I told you so" posts to a minimum, but this topic was really irritating to discuss a year ago because people just refused to look at the data.


Not everyone

 
Before Omicron gave the U.S. like-it-or-not COVID protection, kids were still effective conduits for avoidable COVID spread. Kids not being themselves affected (collectively) either wasn't or shouldn't have been part of the decision tree.


The single worst long COVID case I know got it at 11.  She's more or less a vegetable now. I can't say I know another kid that went beyond a sniffle with it. 

 
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My 4 year old was very feverish and felt like crap for 3 days, has now transitioned to a cough. We have been using his inhalers more often to make sure his breathing stays clear. So far looking like we’re going to be avoiding another hospitalization for him. 

I was pretty sick for a few days, not sure I want to find out how much worse it would have been if not for the vaccinations. 

BTW, this is the ffa thread. Appreciate it if folks could discuss politics in the other thread. 

 
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My 4 year old was very feverish and felt like crap for 3 days, has now transitioned to a cough. We have been using his inhalers more often to make sure his breathing stays clear. So far looking like we’re going to be avoiding another hospitalization for him. 

I was pretty sick for a few days, not sure I want to find out how much worse it would have been if not for the vaccinations. 

BTW, this is the ffa thread. Appreciate it if folks could discuss politics in the other thread. 
Hope you and your family feel better soon, especially the little one.

I just joined the herd, with mild symptoms so far, sniffles, cough, achy, fatigue, about 3/10. I'm tripled vaxxed with Moderna. I let my guard down a little by not wearing the triple layer tight-fitting  decorative masks with a filter, given to me by my daughters,  for the last about 3 weeks when I go to TJs, Publix, food pickup  etc. I wanted to send the masks for a particle test, but never did. Almost no body is wearing a mask anymore. That's the most likely source of my infection, IMO. Although I do walk through the busy touristy streets of South Beach 3 times a week for exercise. I wonder if getting a mild case of COVID now (knock on wood) is better in the long run, since my immunity should increase.

The cases are rising in Miami, but still low. Hospitalizations are low and flat. But the positivity rate is rising fast, now its 11%.

The studies I've read about masks in the real world have so many limitations. Now with so many people vaxxed, and cases starting to rise, would it be ethical to run a big randomized control trial of mask effectiveness with all the COVID funds that are still available?

 
(NOTE: Figures in the graphs tend to get adjusted -- sometimes more than once -- after they first drop. Accordingly, I've waited a few days to let the most recent Monday numbers settle in. As before, these adjustments are generally upward.

Last week, the post-Easter numbers were adjusted significantly upward last Friday 4/22. The figures rose enough that I considered posting an update at that time.)


...

Updating numbers to see where things stand today from a top-of-the-mountain view. All figures below are 7-day averages from Worldometers U.S. graphs here. In the United States: 

CASES
Thu 02/17/2022 - 116,737
Mon 02/21/2022 - 88,636
Mon 02/28/2022 - 62,386
Mon 03/07/2022 - 42,020
Mon 03/14/2022 - 32,925
Mon 03/21/2022 - 28,976
Tue  03/29/2022 - 28,884
Mon 04/04/2022 - 29,109
Mon 04/11/2022 - 34,125
Mon 04/18/2022 - 40,914
Mon 04/25/2022 - 51,034

DEATHS
Thu 02/17/2022 - 2,176
Tue 02/22/2022 - 1,924
Mon 02/28/2022 - 1,734
Mon 03/07/2022 - 1,295
Mon 03/14/2022 - 1,130
Mon 03/21/2022 - 856
Mon 03/28/2022 - 668
Mon 04/04/2022 - 595
Mon 04/11/2022 - 509
Mon 04/18/2022 - 379
Mon 04/25/2022 - 352

...

CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 823,840 on 1/13/2022, and was 51,034 on 4/25/2022. After adjustments, the 7-day average of cases has been rising steadily since 2022's low mark on April 2 (28,064).

DEATHS: The 7-day average dropped for 80 consecutive days from 2,741 on 1/29/2022 to 362 on Wed 4/20/2022. That number jogged up to 367 the following day, breaking the streak. Still, the overall trend continues to be one of decline, with a 7-day average of 352 on 4/25/2022 -- the lowest since 7/24/2021.

...

For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the main thrust of vaccinations and before Delta.

CASES: 12,198 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 245 on 7/8/2021

 
(NOTE: Figures in the graphs tend to get adjusted -- sometimes more than once -- after they first drop. Accordingly, I've waited a few days to let the most recent Monday numbers settle in. As before, these adjustments are generally upward.

Last week, the post-Easter numbers were adjusted significantly upward last Friday 4/22. The figures rose enough that I considered posting an update at that time.)


...

Updating numbers to see where things stand today from a top-of-the-mountain view. All figures below are 7-day averages from Worldometers U.S. graphs here. In the United States: 

CASES
Thu 02/17/2022 - 116,737
Mon 02/21/2022 - 88,636
Mon 02/28/2022 - 62,386
Mon 03/07/2022 - 42,020
Mon 03/14/2022 - 32,925
Mon 03/21/2022 - 28,976
Tue  03/29/2022 - 28,884
Mon 04/04/2022 - 29,109
Mon 04/11/2022 - 34,125
Mon 04/18/2022 - 40,914
Mon 04/25/2022 - 51,034

DEATHS
Thu 02/17/2022 - 2,176
Tue 02/22/2022 - 1,924
Mon 02/28/2022 - 1,734
Mon 03/07/2022 - 1,295
Mon 03/14/2022 - 1,130
Mon 03/21/2022 - 856
Mon 03/28/2022 - 668
Mon 04/04/2022 - 595
Mon 04/11/2022 - 509
Mon 04/18/2022 - 379
Mon 04/25/2022 - 352

...

CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 823,840 on 1/13/2022, and was 51,034 on 4/25/2022. After adjustments, the 7-day average of cases has been rising steadily since 2022's low mark on April 2 (28,064).

DEATHS: The 7-day average dropped for 80 consecutive days from 2,741 on 1/29/2022 to 362 on Wed 4/20/2022. That number jogged up to 367 the following day, breaking the streak. Still, the overall trend continues to be one of decline, with a 7-day average of 352 on 4/25/2022 -- the lowest since 7/24/2021.

...

For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the main thrust of vaccinations and before Delta.

CASES: 12,198 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 245 on 7/8/2021
We are starting to "peak" here on this mini wave.....

So good news, I don't think the deaths will rise dramatically as they did in the past with the "lag"....

So numbers are up but deaths still low

 
We are starting to "peak" here on this mini wave.....

So good news, I don't think the deaths will rise dramatically as they did in the past with the "lag"....

So numbers are up but deaths still low
Saw something posted to another board last week that case numbers in Manhattan itself had peaked FWIW. I'd like to find that bit and post it in here.

Just looking at Worldometers 7-day average graphs by U.S. state, the graphs for the high-population northeastern states (New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts) aren't showing hockey-stick exponential rises. Rather, in recent days they're either showing plateaus or else a jerky up-&-down pattern.

 
Saw something posted to another board last week that case numbers in Manhattan itself had peaked FWIW. I'd like to find that bit and post it in here.
Here it is -- it was a Bloomberg article from last Friday 4/22

There's a graph in that article that shows a peak and downturn in NYC's 7-day avg cases between 4/10 and 4/17. All five boroughs, not just Manhattan.

I'd like to see an update of that graph because the last data point is 4/17 -- Easter Sunday. I'd like to see if that downturn has continued.

EDIT: Here's the same graph with data through Sun 4/24 from NYC's municipal website. That downturn didn't really last as such, but neither are the figures shooting back up. Kind of looking like a slow, lazy wave going up and down.

 
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Friends of mine have avoided COVID until now.  The wife is a teacher, and caught it at school.  One of their sons just tested positive at school today, after a negative test at home in the morning.  Unmasked kids at school are the vectors of infection and spread for COVID -- like they are for everything.

 
Friends of mine have avoided COVID until now.  The wife is a teacher, and caught it at school.  One of their sons just tested positive at school today, after a negative test at home in the morning.
I don't know if you know ... but do you know if their son was symptomatic when testing? I ask because the Omicron variants seem to be harder to detect in general, and using a home test without symptoms usually leads to a negative result.

People sometimes worry about false positives on whatever test they take ... but the real hitch, especially with Omicron, seems to be the likelihood of a false negative, be it on a home test or a PCR.

Before Omicron, PCRs seemed to be golden with regards to detecting COVID. Since December, though ... I've run across too many anecdotes (including yours truly) of people testing negative despite lots of circumstantial evidence of COVID such as having specific smell/taste symptoms and having PCR-tested positive cases in the same household.

 
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I cant believe you people are still obsessed with case counts. 75% of people had Omicron antibodies in a recent study. Its time to move on people. You get covid now, youll be fine. 

 
I don't know if you know ... but do you know if their son was symptomatic when testing? I ask because the Omicron variants seem to be harder to detect in general, and using a home test without symptoms usually leads to a negative result.

People sometimes worry about false positives on whatever test they take ... but the real hitch, especially with Omicron, seems to be the likelihood of a false negative, be it on a home test or a PCR.

Before Omicron, PCRs seemed to be golden with regards to detecting COVID. Since December, though ... I've run across too many anecdotes (including yours truly) of people testing negative despite lots of circumstantial evidence of COVID such as having specific smell/taste symptoms and having PCR-tested positive cases in the same household.


No symptoms, but I guess started to not feel well at school.  My friend is going for a PCR today before going back to work.

 
If I had a dollar for every time someone in this thread deemed this was "over" only to have cases/deaths to rise again... SMH

Very much living my life, like I've been doing... but keeping one eye on metrics and being prepared to adjust is a wise move. 

 
I cant believe you people are still obsessed with case counts. 75% of people had Omicron antibodies in a recent study. Its time to move on people. You get covid now, youll be fine. 


Once again, long COVID is being forgotten in one of these blanket statements.  

 
If I had a dollar for every time someone in this thread deemed this was "over" only to have cases/deaths to rise again... SMH

Very much living my life, like I've been doing... but keeping one eye on metrics and being prepared to adjust is a wise move. 
Lord Fauci declared it over but he was only a month behind me rightly declaring it over. WHO CARES ABOUT CASE COUNTS? This thing aint going away. There will always be ebbs and flows. 

 
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So you're gonna worry about long covid for the rest of your life? And vaccination or previous infection has no impact on long covid?


Yes, the same as I worry about other things like getting hit by a car, getting in a car wreck, etc.  I'll do what I need to do to be cautious in those situations.  In the case of COVID, it's keeping track of case counts (or better yet % positive rate), and masking where risks are high for now.  

It's possible to live your life and still be vigilant and careful with things like COVID. 

I don't know what the studies say about vaccines vs. long COVID.  I imagine it's like the other situations where the vaccines show their benefit.  IE: it makes it less likely/less severe, but isn't 100% effective.   

 
Yes, the same as I worry about other things like getting hit by a car, getting in a car wreck, etc.  I'll do what I need to do to be cautious in those situations.  In the case of COVID, it's keeping track of case counts (or better yet % positive rate), and masking where risks are high for now.  

It's possible to live your life and still be vigilant and careful with things like COVID. 

I don't know what the studies say about vaccines vs. long COVID.  I imagine it's like the other situations where the vaccines show their benefit.  IE: it makes it less likely/less severe, but isn't 100% effective.   
You worry about this stuff? Jeez, must be tough going through life like that. Sorry to hear it.

Also, seat belts are also not 100% effective. Why not wear a helmet while driving?

 
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You worry about this stuff? Jeez, must be tough going through life like that. Sorry to hear it.

Also, seat belts are also not 100% effective. Why not wear a helmet while driving?
You don't look both ways before crossing the street?  You don't check your mirrors before changing lanes?

There's being "afraid" of something and there's "taking all precautions one should take" and they are two different things.

 
Friends of mine have avoided COVID until now.  The wife is a teacher, and caught it at school.  One of their sons just tested positive at school today, after a negative test at home in the morning.  Unmasked kids at school are the vectors of infection and spread for COVID -- like they are for everything.


Sorry to hear about your friends - hope they get better soon.

As for the bolded - with some of the more recent studies and findings I'm beginning to wonder that many of us have had it and had/have no clue.  I think I was tested 4 times - once due to having to attend an event and wanted to be safe - this was back in early 2021, once was required when I had surgery and then twice when I was sick.  But I still wonder if I had it and just had a mild case.  I get a lot of cold/sinus infections so I only went when I was pretty sick.

I really have no clue if I've had Covid or not and it seems like most aren't recommending to get antibody tested so I have no plans for that.

 
You don't look both ways before crossing the street?  You don't check your mirrors before changing lanes?

There's being "afraid" of something and there's "taking all precautions one should take" and they are two different things.


I agree with your point about those being different but I'll point out two things:

1. Your examples don't mean that somebody should be worried about it.  I'm never worried about those things except while they are happening.  I think the disconnect some are having is saying the are worried and it sounding like they live in constant fear and not just taking precautions when the time warrants it.

2. taking all the precautions one should take has been a difficult discussion for a while now.  Humans in general aren't good at recognizing risk and evaluating risk.  Especially with something like this.  I think the % chance of someone dying from Covid who is vaccinated and relatively young and healthy is probably lower than several risky endeavors that people undertake.  People evaluate risk differently.  I think the bigger issue/concern is getting somebody else sick.  This is where we really need to push the mindset of everyone to stay home if you are sick.

 
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