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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (15 Viewers)

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Kids school is allowing asymptomatic positives and symptomatic negatives to attend masked. Same for teachers. Will have rapid tests available for those that want them. So got that going for us.
Crazy times. Our schools start end of this coming week or first of next week. As far as I can tell, zero prevention measures. I fully expect everyone who hasn't gotten it in the last 2 months or so to get it. We have decent remote learning capability, I am just hoping we can keep the teachers/staff in place for minimal disruptions to learning.

Schools have for whatever reason not driven community spread, if anything school starts usually precede drops in all metrics. What's different this time?
 
2/3 of people are still contagious after 5 days of infection.

Stay home and stay masked if you’re still testing positive after day 5.

I can't get through the paywall, but if this study is the same as one I've seen circulating lately, I'm not sure how relevant it is to our current situation. The study was entirely from 2020-21, before Omicron and was very small in size, just 40 some cases.

During the time of the study, basically all cases were in people who were unvaccinated or had never had COVID-19 previously. That's certainly not the case now, plus Omicron is slightly milder than the 2020-21 versions of the disease. I doubt the typical case now conforms to the findings described.
 
Kids school is allowing asymptomatic positives and symptomatic negatives to attend masked. Same for teachers. Will have rapid tests available for those that want them. So got that going for us.
Crazy times. Our schools start end of this coming week or first of next week. As far as I can tell, zero prevention measures. I fully expect everyone who hasn't gotten it in the last 2 months or so to get it. We have decent remote learning capability, I am just hoping we can keep the teachers/staff in place for minimal disruptions to learning.

Schools have for whatever reason not driven community spread, if anything school starts usually precede drops in all metrics. What's different this time?

Weren't we in the middle of the Delta surge last year for school start? If so, I could see a lot of people being more careful with their kids regarding masking and such last year. As of now, most people and schools are acting like COVID doesn't exist anymore. And while cases are slowly declining, they are still high relatively speaking.
 
Kids school is allowing asymptomatic positives and symptomatic negatives to attend masked. Same for teachers. Will have rapid tests available for those that want them. So got that going for us.
Crazy times. Our schools start end of this coming week or first of next week. As far as I can tell, zero prevention measures. I fully expect everyone who hasn't gotten it in the last 2 months or so to get it. We have decent remote learning capability, I am just hoping we can keep the teachers/staff in place for minimal disruptions to learning.

Schools have for whatever reason not driven community spread, if anything school starts usually precede drops in all metrics. What's different this time?

Weren't we in the middle of the Delta surge last year for school start? If so, I could see a lot of people being more careful with their kids regarding masking and such last year. As of now, most people and schools are acting like COVID doesn't exist anymore. And while cases are slowly declining, they are still high relatively speaking.

Delta was like November 2020. Peaking when kids were away from school, then fading when they returned. Similar effect happened when Omi hit about the same time the next year.

There's no point in the pandemic where September and January did not see a decline in metrics. Every.Single.Time. There's absolutely nothing to think cases will not fall off a cliff again in a few weeks.

https://covid-texas.csullender.com/

Having kids in school may promote spread within the school but it shuts the door on community spread because people stay in their bubbles, reach endemic status within it, then go along like it never happened.
 
I've made very clear on multiple occasions in this thread that I don't get worked up about other people's mask choices. However, if you're sitting in a doctor's waiting room and pushing yours down below your nose ... so that you can pick it, well, that's where I'm going to draw the line. 🤮
I was almost one of those people you see on YouTube getting kicked off flights a few months ago when I was in the same row as a lady who kept lifting her mask up to sneeze in her hand. There are some truly dumb people out there.
Yes, in places where masks are now optional, the people who wear them completely improperly are the ones that baffle me. On a flight last week I saw a mom with an N95 mask that had to have a 1/2" gap around her nose, which she also pulled away from her face at least 3 times in the 5 minutes of deplaning. She also pulled down her mask to tell her (adult) son to put his on. Was really tempted to tell her that if her son wears his the way she wears hers there's no point in even putting it on.
 
Delta was like November 2020. Peaking when kids were away from school, then fading when they returned. Similar effect happened when Omi hit about the same time the next year.

There's no point in the pandemic where September and January did not see a decline in metrics. Every.Single.Time. There's absolutely nothing to think cases will not fall off a cliff again in a few weeks.

I agree with your overall point, though the timing of the metrics aren't as clear-cut as you've described here. You're right about the sharp declines in both January 2021 and January 2022. September has been more of a mixed bag -- taking place before vaccinations, September 2020 cases were fairly stable in the ~39k - 43k range. September 2021 was indeed marked by declining cases as Delta began to tail off (see below).

There was a surge of early-strain SARS-CoV-2 in that started in October 2020, accelerated throughout November and December 2020, and peaked on January 12, 2021. The first Greek-letter named variant, Alpha, was identified in the UK in November 2020 and likely contributed to the last few weeks of that winter 2020-21 surge.

The Delta surge started in earnest in the U.S. right after July 4th, 2021. It peaked on September 2, 2021 and dropped like a stone over the next two months.

In retrospect, we now know that the original strain of Omicron slowly started to rise in the U.S. in early November. By mid-December, it was rocketing upwards to its eventual January 13, 2022 peak. From there, it entered a free-fall that lasted until early April of this year.
 

tl;dr:
Covid-19: Cases have peaked and are falling in most places including the US, as we move to more indoor gathering environments (school, weather, holidays, etc.). A couple of new subvariants already on the rise (BA 2.75 (India/Australia)-will likely end up here but cause a small blip on our radar and BA 4.6 (US)-likely will be a slow takeover and become dominant strain but not expected to cause a wave). And YLE: "The next month or two will likely be quiet on the COVID-19 end. This is especially true is a substantial amount of people get the Omicron booster (more on this in a future post). We will have to wait and see how COVID-19 takes us into winter months. This is quite difficult to predict; I’m holding my breath."
 
Kids school is allowing asymptomatic positives and symptomatic negatives to attend masked. Same for teachers. Will have rapid tests available for those that want them. So got that going for us.
Crazy times. Our schools start end of this coming week or first of next week. As far as I can tell, zero prevention measures. I fully expect everyone who hasn't gotten it in the last 2 months or so to get it. We have decent remote learning capability, I am just hoping we can keep the teachers/staff in place for minimal disruptions to learning.

Schools have for whatever reason not driven community spread, if anything school starts usually precede drops in all metrics. What's different this time?

Weren't we in the middle of the Delta surge last year for school start? If so, I could see a lot of people being more careful with their kids regarding masking and such last year. As of now, most people and schools are acting like COVID doesn't exist anymore. And while cases are slowly declining, they are still high relatively speaking.

Delta was like November 2020. Peaking when kids were away from school, then fading when they returned. Similar effect happened when Omi hit about the same time the next year.

There's no point in the pandemic where September and January did not see a decline in metrics. Every.Single.Time. There's absolutely nothing to think cases will not fall off a cliff again in a few weeks.

https://covid-texas.csullender.com/

Having kids in school may promote spread within the school but it shuts the door on community spread because people stay in their bubbles, reach endemic status within it, then go along like it never happened.
A couple things to consider here... This is the most contagious strain yet, and even if it's not as severe, it's still doing quite a number on folks, even some kids. Georgia has already begun school for the year and has already seen a 3% increase in the state, not a big deal overall, but it has almost solely been in the school aged children demo, including a jump in hospitalizations for that group. And it's not just Georgia, test positivity is rising for that group nationwide (same levels of testing, higher positivity %).
The other thing to consider when comparing to previous 2 years of school openings, is that most places have dropped most or all mitigation measures at this point. It's back to 2019 school. People have stopped testing and we are very likely back to sending sick kids to school like we always have. Which is what prompted my original comment. I fully expect it to run through schools (at least in this area) pretty quickly in the coming weeks, at least in this area where we were relatively late to the BA5 party. Just hoping it stays mild for all and causes minimal disruptions.
 
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welp i rebounded. im back in the cell.
still testing positive. sigh. Have a chest cold and a little tired. WOrse symptons than the original infection. So question. For the paxlovid rebound do i need to wait until i test negative to leave isolation? wait 5 days? its been 10 days since the original positive. ive seen conflicting info about whether one is contagious during the rebound. thnx.
 
welp i rebounded. im back in the cell.
still testing positive. sigh. Have a chest cold and a little tired. WOrse symptons than the original infection. So question. For the paxlovid rebound do i need to wait until i test negative to leave isolation? wait 5 days? its been 10 days since the original positive. ive seen conflicting info about whether one is contagious during the rebound. thnx.
everything I have read points to yes, that you are still contagious (see here: https://www.statnews.com/2022/08/02...bers of people with,for longer than five days. - paragraph about halfway down the article)
 
Kids school is allowing asymptomatic positives and symptomatic negatives to attend masked. Same for teachers. Will have rapid tests available for those that want them. So got that going for us.
Crazy times. Our schools start end of this coming week or first of next week. As far as I can tell, zero prevention measures. I fully expect everyone who hasn't gotten it in the last 2 months or so to get it. We have decent remote learning capability, I am just hoping we can keep the teachers/staff in place for minimal disruptions to learning.

Schools have for whatever reason not driven community spread, if anything school starts usually precede drops in all metrics. What's different this time?

Weren't we in the middle of the Delta surge last year for school start? If so, I could see a lot of people being more careful with their kids regarding masking and such last year. As of now, most people and schools are acting like COVID doesn't exist anymore. And while cases are slowly declining, they are still high relatively speaking.

Delta was like November 2020. Peaking when kids were away from school, then fading when they returned. Similar effect happened when Omi hit about the same time the next year.

There's no point in the pandemic where September and January did not see a decline in metrics. Every.Single.Time. There's absolutely nothing to think cases will not fall off a cliff again in a few weeks.

https://covid-texas.csullender.com/

Having kids in school may promote spread within the school but it shuts the door on community spread because people stay in their bubbles, reach endemic status within it, then go along like it never happened.
A couple things to consider here... This is the most contagious strain yet, and even if it's not as severe, it's still doing quite a number on folks, even some kids. Georgia has already begun school for the year and has already seen a 3% increase in the state, not a big deal overall, but it has almost solely been in the school aged children demo, including a jump in hospitalizations for that group. And it's not just Georgia, test positivity is rising for that group nationwide (same levels of testing, higher positivity %).
The other thing to consider when comparing to previous 2 years of school openings, is that most places have dropped most or all mitigation measures at this point. It's back to 2019 school. People have stopped testing and we are very likely back to sending sick kids to school like we always have. Which is what prompted my original comment. I fully expect it to run through schools (at least in this area) pretty quickly in the coming weeks, at least in this area where we were relatively late to the BA5 party. Just hoping it stays mild for all and causes minimal disruptions.

Yea, this strain is seemingly worse. Whether it is the strain itself or vaccine/immunity waning, I do not know. But a neighbor's kid was at the ER recently, as was a friend of mine (vaxxed and boosted).
 
What's behind the FDA's controversial strategy for evaluating new COVID boosters (NPR, 8/18/2022)

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is using a controversial strategy to evaluate the next generation of COVID-19 boosters ... For the first time, the FDA is planning to base its decision about whether to authorize new boosters on studies involving mice instead of humans.

...

The United Kingdom just approved a new booster that targets both the original strain of the virus and the original omicron variant, called BA.1 — a so-called bivalent vaccine.

But the FDA rejected BA.1 bivalent boosters last spring. Instead, the FDA told the vaccine companies that make the mRNA vaccines, Moderna and Pfizer and BioNTech, to develop bivalent vaccines that target the dominant omicron subvariants — BA.4 and BA.5 — in the hopes they will offer stronger, longer-lasting protection.

That's why the FDA decided to use a new, streamlined strategy for testing the new boosters. The agency is asking the companies to initially submit only the results of tests on mice. Regulators will rely on those results, along with the human neutralizing antibody data from the BA.1 bivalent booster studies, to decide whether to authorize the boosters.

The companies will continue to gather more data from human studies; those results probably won't be available until late October or early November.

...

The new [boosters] will be identical to the original vaccines except it will contain genetic coding for two versions of the protein the virus uses to infect cells — the protein from the original vaccine and proteins from the BA.4 and BA.5 omicron subvariants.

And some scientists say health officials know enough about how vaccines work to start handling the COVID-19 vaccines like the flu vaccines, which are changed every year to try to match whatever strains are likely to be circulating but aren't routinely tested again every year.
Finally getting around to reading this. And saw it referred to by another article:

And a few other scattered readings that are referring to, of course, his line:
"For the FDA to rely on mouse data is just bizarre, in my opinion," says John Moore, an immunologist at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York. "Mouse data are not going to be predictive in any way of what you would see in humans."

and then the opposing view to his:
But others defend the approach, arguing that the country has had enough experience with the vaccines at this point to be confident the shots are safe and that there's not enough time to wait for data from human studies. "We have 500 people a day dying of coronavirus right now. Those numbers sadly might very well rise in the fall and the winter. The question is: 'Can we do something better?'" says Dr. Ofer Levy, a pediatrics and infectious disease researcher at Harvard Medical School who also advises the FDA. "And I think the answer is: 'We can, by implementing this approach.'"

And it seems to me like the fact that they are even considering this as a possibility means that they think that this may never go away if we don't try an approach like this to get AHEAD for once instead of chasing variants from behind.

Also having a debate (amongst the experts, that is), if it turns out to be a debated issue and looks like it's heading that way, will not exactly instill confidence in people to get them, IMO.
 
Your first brush with coronavirus could affect how a fall booster works

Thanks, that's a good read.

This part stood out to me:
What scientists don’t know yet is what happens in the weeks and months after an infection or new vaccine.
One possibility: The immune system creates a new memory of the new variant. The next time a descendant of omicron comes along, the body can draw from an expanded memory bank to mount its next defense.
Another, more worrisome scenario: The fast-draw immune response interferes with the creation of new memories. The next time a version of the virus comes along, the body simply reactivates the existing response — and eventually, a variant comes along that is so changed it is unrecognizable.
“The question is: Is that memory pool going to get broadened, or is it going to get fixated?” said Wayne A. Marasco, an immunologist at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute.
 
Updated COVID boosters could be available in 3 weeks, White House predicts (ABC News, 8/16/2022)

Newly updated COVID-19 boosters tailored to target a dominant strain of the virus will be available in the next three weeks or so, assuming the Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention work through their processes for authorization as expected, White House COVID coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha's predicted on Tuesday.In late June, the FDA directed Moderna and Pfizer to make vaccines for the upcoming winter that targeted the more contagious BA.5 omicron subvariant, along with the original COVID strain. That work has been underway and the next step is for the FDA and CDC to review data from the companies, once they've received it.
...So far the U.S. has contracted for 105 million doses of the newly-updated boosters from Pfizer and 66 million doses from Moderna, the two leading COVID vaccine manufacturers for the country.

A little more detail about how and when the bivalent boosters from both Pfizer and Moderna will be rolled out:

Omicron-specific Covid booster shots are just weeks away. Here’s who will—and won’t—be eligible (CNBC, 8/20/2022)

Newly updated Covid booster shots designed to target omicron’s BA.5 subvariant should be available within in the next three weeks. That begs an important question: Who’s going to be eligible to get them?

The short answer: Anyone ages 12 and up who has completed a primary vaccination series
, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention spokesperson tells CNBC Make It. It’s unlikely to matter whether you’ve received any other booster doses or not before, the spokesperson says — but if you’re unvaccinated, you won’t eligible for the updated formula until you complete a primary series with the existing Covid vaccines.

The longer answer is somewhat more complex, because it depends on which booster shots get approved and when.

Pfizer’s “bivalent” shot, which targets both the original Covid strain and omicron’s BA.5 subvariant, is expected to authorized first. The CDC says it’ll likely come with a wide eligibility swath: The full group of vaccinated Americans ages 12 and up.

Moderna’s bivalent shot is expected to follow suit later, most likely in October. It’ll come with a somewhat narrower range of eligibility, at least at first: vaccinated people ages 18 and older. For both shots, younger pediatric age groups could become eligible later, the CDC says.


Those projections are tentative, at least for now. A person familiar with the matter told NBC News on Wednesday that it’ll hinge on how much supply Pfizer and Moderna are able to manufacture and roll out by next month. If that supply is limited, the shots could first be available to those most at risk, such as the elderly and immunocompromised.
@belljr , unpack the quote boxes in this post and see the links posted this past Saturday -- skol asylum is on the money.
 
Will the updated vaccines be on the 4 month rule in terms of when you can get it? That is, you need to wait four months from your previous shot before you can get another? Or is this different enough, it wont matter?
 
Will the updated vaccines be on the 4 month rule in terms of when you can get it? That is, you need to wait four months from your previous shot before you can get another? Or is this different enough, it wont matter?

Nobody has said that -- and it is a failure in communication and really hurts people's ability to make informed decisions.
 
Updated COVID boosters could be available in 3 weeks, White House predicts (ABC News, 8/16/2022)

Newly updated COVID-19 boosters tailored to target a dominant strain of the virus will be available in the next three weeks or so, assuming the Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention work through their processes for authorization as expected, White House COVID coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha's predicted on Tuesday.In late June, the FDA directed Moderna and Pfizer to make vaccines for the upcoming winter that targeted the more contagious BA.5 omicron subvariant, along with the original COVID strain. That work has been underway and the next step is for the FDA and CDC to review data from the companies, once they've received it.
...So far the U.S. has contracted for 105 million doses of the newly-updated boosters from Pfizer and 66 million doses from Moderna, the two leading COVID vaccine manufacturers for the country.

A little more detail about how and when the bivalent boosters from both Pfizer and Moderna will be rolled out:

Omicron-specific Covid booster shots are just weeks away. Here’s who will—and won’t—be eligible (CNBC, 8/20/2022)

Newly updated Covid booster shots designed to target omicron’s BA.5 subvariant should be available within in the next three weeks. That begs an important question: Who’s going to be eligible to get them?

The short answer: Anyone ages 12 and up who has completed a primary vaccination series
, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention spokesperson tells CNBC Make It. It’s unlikely to matter whether you’ve received any other booster doses or not before, the spokesperson says — but if you’re unvaccinated, you won’t eligible for the updated formula until you complete a primary series with the existing Covid vaccines.

The longer answer is somewhat more complex, because it depends on which booster shots get approved and when.

Pfizer’s “bivalent” shot, which targets both the original Covid strain and omicron’s BA.5 subvariant, is expected to authorized first. The CDC says it’ll likely come with a wide eligibility swath: The full group of vaccinated Americans ages 12 and up.

Moderna’s bivalent shot is expected to follow suit later, most likely in October. It’ll come with a somewhat narrower range of eligibility, at least at first: vaccinated people ages 18 and older. For both shots, younger pediatric age groups could become eligible later, the CDC says.


Those projections are tentative, at least for now. A person familiar with the matter told NBC News on Wednesday that it’ll hinge on how much supply Pfizer and Moderna are able to manufacture and roll out by next month. If that supply is limited, the shots could first be available to those most at risk, such as the elderly and immunocompromised.
@belljr , unpack the quote boxes in this post and see the links posted this past Saturday -- skol asylum is on the money.
Pretty sure this was the article I had read.
 
Given approval timing for kids 5-12 the last time around, what’s the guess on the bivalent approval for that age group?

School starts next week, and my kids haven’t received their booster, but had covid in mid-may. Thinking to just get it now if bivalent isn’t available to them until December or January. I was holding out hope that they would be eligible for bivalent along with everyone else.
 
Given approval timing for kids 5-12 the last time around, what’s the guess on the bivalent approval for that age group?

School starts next week, and my kids haven’t received their booster, but had covid in mid-may. Thinking to just get it now if bivalent isn’t available to them until December or January. I was holding out hope that they would be eligible for bivalent along with everyone else.
Currently expected to follow soon after the adult group. They've just released the data on the younger group and are seeking EUA:
 
YLE update on fall boosters:

"It’s important to note, though, that if we want immunity against infection beyond 6 months, we need new vaccine altogether, like a nasal vaccine."

An important note

This will be the last vaccine that is freely to the American public. We could barely find enough money to purchase fall boosters for everyone. Congress has stopped funding the coronavirus response and has invested very little into pandemic preparedness. This will be a tragedy on many fronts.
 
Dr. Jetelina brings up a great point:

What will be the retail price of future COVID vaccinations? And what's a good ballpark estimate of what the co-pays for these shots might be for insured Americans?

Something in line with current flu vaccinations, considering that the drug companies don't have to recoup their R&D costs for the COVID vaccines?

@Biff84 , any professional opinion on the matter? Even something as vague as "I'd be surprised if out of pocket cost were greater than $X"?
 
Given approval timing for kids 5-12 the last time around, what’s the guess on the bivalent approval for that age group?

School starts next week, and my kids haven’t received their booster, but had covid in mid-may. Thinking to just get it now if bivalent isn’t available to them until December or January. I was holding out hope that they would be eligible for bivalent along with everyone else.
Currently expected to follow soon after the adult group. They've just released the data on the younger group and are seeking EUA:

If available in sept/oct then I think I roll with the kids' natural immunity (and 2 vax doses) until bivalent is available to them.
 
Dr. Jetelina brings up a great point:

What will be the retail price of future COVID vaccinations? And what's a good ballpark estimate of what the co-pays for these shots might be for insured Americans?

Something in line with current flu vaccinations, considering that the drug companies don't have to recoup their R&D costs for the COVID vaccines?

@Biff84 , any professional opinion on the matter? Even something as vague as "I'd be surprised if out of pocket cost were greater than $X"?

Unfortunately I have no clue on that. But if I were to guess, I’d say that most insurances will be a zero co-pay. I’d expect cash price to be around the same as a flu shot, maybe $35-$50. But there’s nothing stopping them from charging a huge price. Pneumonia and shingles vaccines $150-200 cash price.

Another big factor would be when the pharmacies themselves have to start buying the vaccine. If they are still packaged as multi dose vials, there will likely be markups on the pharmacy side.

The government has been paying for ‘potential doses’ when they buy from Pfizer and Moderna. They have a negotiated price per dose, let’s say $5. Each Moderna vial has 20 booster doses and they come in a box of 10 vials. So one box would cost $1000 for 200 potential doses. But the vials are only good for 12 hours and we might use 5 doses out of the vial on a good day. That makes the true cost per dose more like $20. Right now that’s just good ole government waste but once it’s for-profit pharmacies dealing with it, the waste will be passed onto the customers, especially cash paying patients.
 
welp i rebounded. im back in the cell.
still testing positive. sigh. Have a chest cold and a little tired. Worse symptons than the original infection. So question. For the paxlovid rebound do i need to wait until i test negative to leave isolation? wait 5 days? its been 10 days since the original positive. ive seen conflicting info about whether one is contagious during the rebound. thnx.
So question. I tested positive initially on the 13th, started paxlovid. Symptoms basically gone by the 15th. 18th finished my paxlovid. 19th my rapid test was quite faint(assumed the next day would be negative) but still positive. 21st my symptoms came back and i tested positive no longer faint, solid line. Been testing positive since with very strong symptoms(chest and head cold basically).

Is this considered a rebound if i never actually tested negative? I ask because im technically past the 10 days since infection. Im treating the 21st as day 0 again but was curious if this is technically a rebound. I didnt test on the 20th but i suspect i may have tested negative at some point between tests. But who knows really.
 
At this point who knows when youre positive....I had it three weeks ago and thought I had a cold until a week into it my wife got sick and said you need to test...and I was positive
 
(NOTE: Recent figures in the Worldometers graphs get large adjustments as much as two weeks after they first drop. Accordingly, I've waited ten days to let the last-week Monday (August 15st) numbers settle in. They will likely rise a bit more by next week's update, but it should only be by a small amount.)



Updating numbers to see where things have been standing recently from a top-of-the-mountain view. All figures below are 7-day averages from Worldometers U.S. graphs here. In the United States:


CASES ON THU 08/25/2022
Thu 01/13/2022 - 825,929 <--OMICRON SURGE 2022 HIGH
Tue 02/01/2022 - 425,029
Thu 02/17/2022 - 116,616
Mon 02/28/2022 - 62,205
Mon 03/14/2022 - 32,900
Sat 04/02/2022 - 27,637 <--2022 LOW
Mon 04/18/2022 - 40,892
Mon 05/02/2022 - 63,279
Mon 05/09/2022 - 81,594
Mon 05/16/2022 - 100,359
Mon 05/23/2022 - 110,986
Mon 05/30/2022 - 110,505
Mon 06/06/2022 - 107,061
Mon 06/13/2022 - 107,805
Tue 06/21/2022 - 100,101
Mon 06/27/2022 - 113,329
Mon 07/04/2022 - 115,444
Mon 07/11/2022 - 120,729
Mon 07/18/2022 - 132,496
Sat 07/23/2022 - 132,920 <-- SPRING/SUMMER SURGE HIGH
Mon 07/25/2022 - 132,140
Mon 08/01/2022 - 125,102
Mon 08/08/2022 - 111,873 (111,783 on 8/11/2022)
Mon 08/15/2022 - 102,539 (92,485 on 8/11/2022)
Mon 08/22/2022 - 85,125 <--provisional count


DEATHS ON THU 08/25/2022
Sun 01/29/2022 - 2,777 <--OMICRON SURGE 2022 HIGH
Fri 02/18/2022 - 2,190
Mon 02/28/2022 - 1,740
Mon 03/14/2022 - 1,105
Mon 03/28/2022 - 623
Mon 04/11/2022 - 487
Mon 05/02/2022 - 338
Mon 05/09/2022 - 298
Sat 05/14/2022 - 285 <--2022 LOW
Mon 05/16/2022 - 289
Mon 05/23/2022 - 324
Mon 06/06/2022 - 341
Mon 06/13/2022 - 365
Mon 06/20/2022 - 318
Mon 06/27/2022 - 354
Mon 07/04/2022 - 369
Mon 07/11/2022 - 396
Mon 07/18/2022 - 422
Mon 07/25/2022 - 444
Mon 08/01/2022 - 452
Fri 08/05/2022 - 497 <--SPRING/SUMMER SURGE HIGH
Mon 08/08/2022 - 486 (468 on Thu 08/11/2022)
Mon 08/15/2022 - 449 (360 on Thu 08/18/2022)
Mon 08/22/2022 - 366 <--provisional count



CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 825,929 on 1/13/2022, and was provisionally 102,539 on 8/15/2022. Starting from a peak on July 23, 2022, the 7-day case numbers have been declining. Data shows that this decline is continuing. The BA.4/BA.5 "surge" is looking for sure like a low hill -- and furthermore it appears we're well on the downside of that hill.

DEATHS: The 7-day average had dropped for 79 consecutive days from 2,756 on 1/29/2022 to 350 on Tue 4/19/2022. With adjustments, the 8/15/2022 number was 449. The 7-day average deaths on 8/5/2022 is the new spring/summer high, now adjusted to 497. Last week's "trace in the data" is more definitive this week: the 7-day average death counts have likely peaked. The current 8/15 figure of 449 has had 10 days of adjustments and is now virtually certain to remain well below the spring-summer surge high of 497 (on Fri 8/5).



For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the initial thrust of vaccinations and before summer 2021's Delta surge.

CASES: 12,265 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 245 on 7/8/2021
 
Is this considered a rebound if i never actually tested negative? I ask because im technically past the 10 days since infection. Im treating the 21st as day 0 again but was curious if this is technically a rebound. I didnt test on the 20th but i suspect i may have tested negative at some point between tests. But who knows really.

I'd call it a rebound based on the disposition of your symptoms -- present, minimized, and then present again. In the end, it probably isn't that important what you call it, though.

Unfortunately, it's a thing that some people can continue to test positive for a few weeks even well after symptoms have run their course.
 

Study: Paxlovid works well for people over 65, but has no benefit for younger adults

Paxlovid works very well at keeping people over 65 out of the hospital and alive after they’re infected with Covid-19, a new NEJM study says, but it doesn’t help younger adults. Researchers tracked nearly 4,000 people over 40 who received the antiviral during the January Omicron surge and found that while Paxlovid cut hospitalizations and deaths significantly for patients over 65, it didn’t make a difference in younger patients.

RESULTS​

A total of 109,254 patients met the eligibility criteria, of whom 3902 (4%) received nirmatrelvir during the study period. Among patients 65 years of age or older, the rate of hospitalization due to Covid-19 was 14.7 cases per 100,000 person-days among treated patients as compared with 58.9 cases per 100,000 person-days among untreated patients (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.15 to 0.49). The adjusted hazard ratio for death due to Covid-19 was 0.21 (95% CI, 0.05 to 0.82). Among patients 40 to 64 years of age, the rate of hospitalization due to Covid-19 was 15.2 cases per 100,000 person-days among treated patients and 15.8 cases per 100,000 person-days among untreated patients (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.35 to 1.58). The adjusted hazard ratio for death due to Covid-19 was 1.32 (95% CI, 0.16 to 10.75).

CONCLUSIONS​

Among patients 65 years of age or older, the rates of hospitalization and death due to Covid-19 were significantly lower among those who received nirmatrelvir than among those who did not. No evidence of benefit was found in younger adults.
 

Study: Paxlovid works well for people over 65, but has no benefit for younger adults

Paxlovid works very well at keeping people over 65 out of the hospital and alive after they’re infected with Covid-19, a new NEJM study says, but it doesn’t help younger adults. Researchers tracked nearly 4,000 people over 40 who received the antiviral during the January Omicron surge and found that while Paxlovid cut hospitalizations and deaths significantly for patients over 65, it didn’t make a difference in younger patients.

RESULTS​

A total of 109,254 patients met the eligibility criteria, of whom 3902 (4%) received nirmatrelvir during the study period. Among patients 65 years of age or older, the rate of hospitalization due to Covid-19 was 14.7 cases per 100,000 person-days among treated patients as compared with 58.9 cases per 100,000 person-days among untreated patients (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.15 to 0.49). The adjusted hazard ratio for death due to Covid-19 was 0.21 (95% CI, 0.05 to 0.82). Among patients 40 to 64 years of age, the rate of hospitalization due to Covid-19 was 15.2 cases per 100,000 person-days among treated patients and 15.8 cases per 100,000 person-days among untreated patients (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.35 to 1.58). The adjusted hazard ratio for death due to Covid-19 was 1.32 (95% CI, 0.16 to 10.75).

CONCLUSIONS​

Among patients 65 years of age or older, the rates of hospitalization and death due to Covid-19 were significantly lower among those who received nirmatrelvir than among those who did not. No evidence of benefit was found in younger adults.
Id be curious to see how this impacted immunocompromised folks also and whether it had an impact.
 
Just to complicate things, there apparently is a pretty nasty cold going around that causes severe congestion and a loud productive cough. I know a few people/families that have caught this, and it lasts for almost 2 weeks.
 
Kids school is allowing asymptomatic positives and symptomatic negatives to attend masked. Same for teachers. Will have rapid tests available for those that want them. So got that going for us.
Crazy times. Our schools start end of this coming week or first of next week. As far as I can tell, zero prevention measures. I fully expect everyone who hasn't gotten it in the last 2 months or so to get it. We have decent remote learning capability, I am just hoping we can keep the teachers/staff in place for minimal disruptions to learning.

Schools have for whatever reason not driven community spread, if anything school starts usually precede drops in all metrics. What's different this time?

Weren't we in the middle of the Delta surge last year for school start? If so, I could see a lot of people being more careful with their kids regarding masking and such last year. As of now, most people and schools are acting like COVID doesn't exist anymore. And while cases are slowly declining, they are still high relatively speaking.

Delta was like November 2020. Peaking when kids were away from school, then fading when they returned. Similar effect happened when Omi hit about the same time the next year.

There's no point in the pandemic where September and January did not see a decline in metrics. Every.Single.Time. There's absolutely nothing to think cases will not fall off a cliff again in a few weeks.

https://covid-texas.csullender.com/

Having kids in school may promote spread within the school but it shuts the door on community spread because people stay in their bubbles, reach endemic status within it, then go along like it never happened.
A couple things to consider here... This is the most contagious strain yet, and even if it's not as severe, it's still doing quite a number on folks, even some kids. Georgia has already begun school for the year and has already seen a 3% increase in the state, not a big deal overall, but it has almost solely been in the school aged children demo, including a jump in hospitalizations for that group. And it's not just Georgia, test positivity is rising for that group nationwide (same levels of testing, higher positivity %).
The other thing to consider when comparing to previous 2 years of school openings, is that most places have dropped most or all mitigation measures at this point. It's back to 2019 school. People have stopped testing and we are very likely back to sending sick kids to school like we always have. Which is what prompted my original comment. I fully expect it to run through schools (at least in this area) pretty quickly in the coming weeks, at least in this area where we were relatively late to the BA5 party. Just hoping it stays mild for all and causes minimal disruptions.

Yea, this strain is seemingly worse. Whether it is the strain itself or vaccine/immunity waning, I do not know. But a neighbor's kid was at the ER recently, as was a friend of mine (vaxxed and boosted).
:biggrin: Really? Are ya that brainwashed? Have you not been paying attention? IT NEVER WORKED!!! See Dr. Birx.
During a Fox News appearance on July 22, she told Neil Cavuto that “I knew these vaccines were not going to protect against infection.
That IS NOT A VACCINE!!!!

You are soon gonna find out how horrible this garbage really is, very possibly wrecking you immune system. It's killing people left and right. But hey, keep injecting yourself with something that never worked. I have been right the whole time and people like icon have been horribly wrong. EVERYONE that has this garbage in them is a ticking timebomb.

Here is what the end result will be. Once they can no longer deny the dangers of this crap, they will blame Trump.
....and you jabbed will be doing this: You will cheer that they blamed trump at the same time you realize that you have this deadly garbage in your system.
:jawdrop:

The Dems are already starting the turn.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/...se-authorizations-house-report-finds-00053428

The Democrats’ investigation also documents White House attempts to block the FDA from collecting additional safety data on Covid-19 vaccines in order to get them to the public before the 2020 presidential election. When Trump runs again in 2024, its a guarantee they roll out the 'It's Trumps fault the 'vaxxes' are killing people.'

England wondering why there is a an sudden increase in excess deaths.
Germany. 1 in 500 permanently disabled or dead from the jabs. Yeah, you read that right.
Germany's largest health insurer reveals 1 in 25 clients underwent medical treatment in 2021 for COVID 'vaccine' side effects, an increase of 3,000%, w/1 in 500 injections expected to cause serious side effects, including permanent disability & death.
https://rairfoundation.com/germanys...tment-in-2021-for-covid-vaccine-side-effects/
 
:biggrin: Really? Are ya that brainwashed? Have you not been paying attention? IT NEVER WORKED!!! See Dr. Birx.
During a Fox News appearance on July 22, she told Neil Cavuto that “I knew these vaccines were not going to protect against infection.
That IS NOT A VACCINE!!!!

You are soon gonna find out how horrible this garbage really is, very possibly wrecking you immune system. It's killing people left and right. But hey, keep injecting yourself with something that never worked. I have been right the whole time and people like icon have been horribly wrong. EVERYONE that has this garbage in them is a ticking timebomb.

Here is what the end result will be. Once they can no longer deny the dangers of this crap, they will blame Trump.
....and you jabbed will be doing this: You will cheer that they blamed trump at the same time you realize that you have this deadly garbage in your system.
:jawdrop:

The Dems are already starting the turn.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/...se-authorizations-house-report-finds-00053428

The Democrats’ investigation also documents White House attempts to block the FDA from collecting additional safety data on Covid-19 vaccines in order to get them to the public before the 2020 presidential election. When Trump runs again in 2024, its a guarantee they roll out the 'It's Trumps fault the 'vaxxes' are killing people.'

England wondering why there is a an sudden increase in excess deaths.
Germany. 1 in 500 permanently disabled or dead from the jabs. Yeah, you read that right.
Germany's largest health insurer reveals 1 in 25 clients underwent medical treatment in 2021 for COVID 'vaccine' side effects, an increase of 3,000%, w/1 in 500 injections expected to cause serious side effects, including permanent disability & death.
https://rairfoundation.com/germanys...tment-in-2021-for-covid-vaccine-side-effects/

I'd love to hear your opinions on the "deep state", the upcoming global currency reset, and especially Comet Ping Pong pizzeria. Thanks in advance.
 
We’re being asked to test before a BBQ next week. These are friends of my new bride (9 week anniversary tomorrow) and apparently the “annual summer soirée” was a staple pre-Covid. I’m not sure if I find the request off putting or if I’m still amazed the hosts personal email has a signature 10 lines long (signature in fancy script, every conceivable form of contact information, and of course an inspirational quotes.)

I have four tickets to a minor league baseball game on Taco ****ing Tuesday. Which we had to cancel & give away the tickets.

Where is that rant thread at?
 
We’re being asked to test before a BBQ next week. These are friends of my new bride (9 week anniversary tomorrow) and apparently the “annual summer soirée” was a staple pre-Covid. I’m not sure if I find the request off putting or if I’m still amazed the hosts personal email has a signature 10 lines long (signature in fancy script, every conceivable form of contact information, and of course an inspirational quotes.)

I have four tickets to a minor league baseball game on Taco ****ing Tuesday. Which we had to cancel & give away the tickets.

Where is that rant thread at?

Why is this so off putting? Is it 100% outdoors? How many people? There may be immunocompromised people in attendance? Who doesn't have a dozen government provided covid tests in their medicine cabinet at this point?

Congrats on the wedding!
 
Flying out Monday for Quebec / Ottawa for two indoor sold out Pearl Jam Shows.

One sitting front row risers sidestage, one down in the Pit with the Crowd.

If I pick up Covid in the PIt (2nd show) I should be home before symptoms set in (flying home <48hrs later)

Canada entry is pretty easy... submit vax info 72hrs before arrival... no mandatory testing. :thumbup:
 
Last edited:
We’re being asked to test before a BBQ next week. These are friends of my new bride (9 week anniversary tomorrow) and apparently the “annual summer soirée” was a staple pre-Covid. I’m not sure if I find the request off putting or if I’m still amazed the hosts personal email has a signature 10 lines long (signature in fancy script, every conceivable form of contact information, and of course an inspirational quotes.)

I have four tickets to a minor league baseball game on Taco ****ing Tuesday. Which we had to cancel & give away the tickets.

Where is that rant thread at?

Why is this so off putting? Is it 100% outdoors? How many people? There may be immunocompromised people in attendance? Who doesn't have a dozen government provided covid tests in their medicine cabinet at this point?

Congrats on the wedding!
I'm thinking everything else about the event feels off putting so any requests would feel that way.
 
Kids school is allowing asymptomatic positives and symptomatic negatives to attend masked. Same for teachers. Will have rapid tests available for those that want them. So got that going for us.
Crazy times. Our schools start end of this coming week or first of next week. As far as I can tell, zero prevention measures. I fully expect everyone who hasn't gotten it in the last 2 months or so to get it. We have decent remote learning capability, I am just hoping we can keep the teachers/staff in place for minimal disruptions to learning.

Schools have for whatever reason not driven community spread, if anything school starts usually precede drops in all metrics. What's different this time?

Weren't we in the middle of the Delta surge last year for school start? If so, I could see a lot of people being more careful with their kids regarding masking and such last year. As of now, most people and schools are acting like COVID doesn't exist anymore. And while cases are slowly declining, they are still high relatively speaking.

Delta was like November 2020. Peaking when kids were away from school, then fading when they returned. Similar effect happened when Omi hit about the same time the next year.

There's no point in the pandemic where September and January did not see a decline in metrics. Every.Single.Time. There's absolutely nothing to think cases will not fall off a cliff again in a few weeks.

https://covid-texas.csullender.com/

Having kids in school may promote spread within the school but it shuts the door on community spread because people stay in their bubbles, reach endemic status within it, then go along like it never happened.
A couple things to consider here... This is the most contagious strain yet, and even if it's not as severe, it's still doing quite a number on folks, even some kids. Georgia has already begun school for the year and has already seen a 3% increase in the state, not a big deal overall, but it has almost solely been in the school aged children demo, including a jump in hospitalizations for that group. And it's not just Georgia, test positivity is rising for that group nationwide (same levels of testing, higher positivity %).
The other thing to consider when comparing to previous 2 years of school openings, is that most places have dropped most or all mitigation measures at this point. It's back to 2019 school. People have stopped testing and we are very likely back to sending sick kids to school like we always have. Which is what prompted my original comment. I fully expect it to run through schools (at least in this area) pretty quickly in the coming weeks, at least in this area where we were relatively late to the BA5 party. Just hoping it stays mild for all and causes minimal disruptions.

Yea, this strain is seemingly worse. Whether it is the strain itself or vaccine/immunity waning, I do not know. But a neighbor's kid was at the ER recently, as was a friend of mine (vaxxed and boosted).
:biggrin: Really? Are ya that brainwashed? Have you not been paying attention? IT NEVER WORKED!!! See Dr. Birx.
During a Fox News appearance on July 22, she told Neil Cavuto that “I knew these vaccines were not going to protect against infection.
That IS NOT A VACCINE!!!!

You are soon gonna find out how horrible this garbage really is, very possibly wrecking you immune system. It's killing people left and right. But hey, keep injecting yourself with something that never worked. I have been right the whole time and people like icon have been horribly wrong. EVERYONE that has this garbage in them is a ticking timebomb.

Here is what the end result will be. Once they can no longer deny the dangers of this crap, they will blame Trump.
....and you jabbed will be doing this: You will cheer that they blamed trump at the same time you realize that you have this deadly garbage in your system.
:jawdrop:

The Dems are already starting the turn.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/...se-authorizations-house-report-finds-00053428

The Democrats’ investigation also documents White House attempts to block the FDA from collecting additional safety data on Covid-19 vaccines in order to get them to the public before the 2020 presidential election. When Trump runs again in 2024, its a guarantee they roll out the 'It's Trumps fault the 'vaxxes' are killing people.'

England wondering why there is a an sudden increase in excess deaths.
Germany. 1 in 500 permanently disabled or dead from the jabs. Yeah, you read that right.
Germany's largest health insurer reveals 1 in 25 clients underwent medical treatment in 2021 for COVID 'vaccine' side effects, an increase of 3,000%, w/1 in 500 injections expected to cause serious side effects, including permanent disability & death.
https://rairfoundation.com/germanys...tment-in-2021-for-covid-vaccine-side-effects/
I am honestly interested in what you think a vaccine is and it's purpose...have you ever been vaccinated for anything, and your thoughts on fluoride?
 
We’re being asked to test before a BBQ next week. These are friends of my new bride (9 week anniversary tomorrow) and apparently the “annual summer soirée” was a staple pre-Covid. I’m not sure if I find the request off putting or if I’m still amazed the hosts personal email has a signature 10 lines long (signature in fancy script, every conceivable form of contact information, and of course an inspirational quotes.)

I have four tickets to a minor league baseball game on Taco ****ing Tuesday. Which we had to cancel & give away the tickets.

Where is that rant thread at?

Why is this so off putting? Is it 100% outdoors? How many people? There may be immunocompromised people in attendance? Who doesn't have a dozen government provided covid tests in their medicine cabinet at this point?

Congrats on the wedding!

outdoors, huge brownstone garden, maybe 8-10 people
 
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