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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (21 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
- Status
Zegras11
Footballguy
So a week ago, had two coronas with my son. Felt super fatigued and something similar to a mild hang over for two days. Thought the main cause was only 6 hours of sleep each day.
Yesterday, had one glass of wine. One. Ate dinner after the drink.Just woke up from 8 hours of sleep. I'm so insanely fatigued in all parts of my body. Anyone else have this?
My daughter has had long hauler symptoms for a year now. She just told me she gave up drinking six months ago for the same reason.
Yesterday, had one glass of wine. One. Ate dinner after the drink.Just woke up from 8 hours of sleep. I'm so insanely fatigued in all parts of my body. Anyone else have this?
My daughter has had long hauler symptoms for a year now. She just told me she gave up drinking six months ago for the same reason.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
COVID question for the people who may or may not have stayed at a Holiday Inn last night:
CDC guidelines state that I can end isolation after Day 5 if I'm fever-free for 24 hours. Yesterday was Day 5 and I hadn't had a fever since Day 1-2. Looking good so far, right?
WELL.....this morning I woke up with a fever of 100.1. Two hours later, that fever has come down to 99.7 on its own. If the fever disappears later today, can I still end isolation? Or do I have to wait another 24 hours?
CDC guidelines state that I can end isolation after Day 5 if I'm fever-free for 24 hours. Yesterday was Day 5 and I hadn't had a fever since Day 1-2. Looking good so far, right?
WELL.....this morning I woke up with a fever of 100.1. Two hours later, that fever has come down to 99.7 on its own. If the fever disappears later today, can I still end isolation? Or do I have to wait another 24 hours?
Doug B
Footballguy
Yes, but not in response to drinking.
The all-over fatigue comes and goes. I'm old enough to where even before COVID, staying up past 9:00 p.m. is sometimes a challenge.
Doug B
Footballguy
In you shoes ... if I had a social event I was planning on attending later today, I would skip it.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
update from YLE:
yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com
tl;dr
Brief updates on MPX, Flu and Polio. And for COVID, nothing major but a couple of things to keep an eye on:
Currently, the Omicron subvariant BA.4.6 is taking hold in the U.S., and we are getting the first signs that it can outcompete BA.5. Wastewater levels have begun to rise in the Northeast where BA.4.6 is most prevalent. Also, for the first time last week, cases of BA.4.6 started rising while BA.5 cases started falling. We don’t think BA.4.6 will cause a big wave, as it doesn’t have mutations on the spike protein to escape our immunity, but coupled with behavior change and weather change, I guess anything is possible.
---
SARS-CoV-2 continues to mutate, and there are a few Omicron variants, like BA.2.3 and BJ.1, on the horizon with potentially concerning combinations of mutations. But evidence thus far is extremely limited. Most eyes are on BA.2.75.2, which is a second generation subvariant and has three additional spike protein mutations. Two preprints have shown substantial immune escape, even compared to BA.5. This means it has the potential to cause future waves. The number of BA.2.75.2 cases is still very small across the globe, but counts are doubling every week. If this growth rate continues, BA.2.75.2 may be one that causes the much anticipated winter wave.
--
This is the second "alert" I've seen about BA.2.75.2, probably based on the same preprints I'm guessing.
State of Affairs (Sept 19): COVID19, MPX, Polio, and... Flu
Here’s an update on our three, global public health emergencies.
yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com
tl;dr
Brief updates on MPX, Flu and Polio. And for COVID, nothing major but a couple of things to keep an eye on:
Currently, the Omicron subvariant BA.4.6 is taking hold in the U.S., and we are getting the first signs that it can outcompete BA.5. Wastewater levels have begun to rise in the Northeast where BA.4.6 is most prevalent. Also, for the first time last week, cases of BA.4.6 started rising while BA.5 cases started falling. We don’t think BA.4.6 will cause a big wave, as it doesn’t have mutations on the spike protein to escape our immunity, but coupled with behavior change and weather change, I guess anything is possible.
---
SARS-CoV-2 continues to mutate, and there are a few Omicron variants, like BA.2.3 and BJ.1, on the horizon with potentially concerning combinations of mutations. But evidence thus far is extremely limited. Most eyes are on BA.2.75.2, which is a second generation subvariant and has three additional spike protein mutations. Two preprints have shown substantial immune escape, even compared to BA.5. This means it has the potential to cause future waves. The number of BA.2.75.2 cases is still very small across the globe, but counts are doubling every week. If this growth rate continues, BA.2.75.2 may be one that causes the much anticipated winter wave.
--
This is the second "alert" I've seen about BA.2.75.2, probably based on the same preprints I'm guessing.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
update from YLE:
State of Affairs (Sept 19): COVID19, MPX, Polio, and... Flu
Here’s an update on our three, global public health emergencies.
tl;dr
Brief updates on MPX, Flu and Polio. And for COVID, nothing major but a couple of things to keep an eye on:
Currently, the Omicron subvariant BA.4.6 is taking hold in the U.S., and we are getting the first signs that it can outcompete BA.5. Wastewater levels have begun to rise in the Northeast where BA.4.6 is most prevalent. Also, for the first time last week, cases of BA.4.6 started rising while BA.5 cases started falling. We don’t think BA.4.6 will cause a big wave, as it doesn’t have mutations on the spike protein to escape our immunity, but coupled with behavior change and weather change, I guess anything is possible.
---
SARS-CoV-2 continues to mutate, and there are a few Omicron variants, like BA.2.3 and BJ.1, on the horizon with potentially concerning combinations of mutations. But evidence thus far is extremely limited. Most eyes are on BA.2.75.2, which is a second generation subvariant and has three additional spike protein mutations. Two preprints have shown substantial immune escape, even compared to BA.5. This means it has the potential to cause future waves. The number of BA.2.75.2 cases is still very small across the globe, but counts are doubling every week. If this growth rate continues, BA.2.75.2 may be one that causes the much anticipated winter wave.
--
This is the second "alert" I've seen about BA.2.75.2, probably based on the same preprints I'm guessing.
But does the bivalent booster cover these, or not?
Just scheduled mine -- Moderna. But Moderna is in limited supply apparently. Cannot get the appointment until 9/27 and not every pharmacy has it (seems that you can get Pfizer wherever and whenever you want). The schedule works for me, but what's going on with the supply?
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
In the past few weeks, I've found myself forgetting names in a way that's really weird. Like I'll refer to someone whose name I absolutely know and draw a complete blank for like 30-60 seconds, and then it will come to me.
If I had ever had Covid, I'm sure I would be attributing this to brain fog caused by Long Covid. But I know for a fact I've never had it (got the nucleocapsid test over the summer). So it's probably just a case of me getting old.
Point being, people got weird, unexplained symptoms before Covid, and they'll continue getting them going forward.
Osaurus
Footballguy
Shouldn’t be
nirad3
Footballguy
I'm not arguing that in the slightest. I fully admit that the vaccines led to my mild symptoms.
Right.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
As long as you know when your last shot was your fine - I have a picture of mine on my phone and just showed them. They gave me a new card when I was done.
FatMax
Member
Thanks. I might even have a photo if I dig back long enough on my phone.
IrishTwinkie
Footballguy
Double vax and boosts here. Just tested positive after a trip to LA to see Angels and then the rams play. Pretty sure I got it from guy sitting behind me on plane with lousy mask hygiene/coughing up a storm. I’ll never know for sure, but the timing seem right. Paxlovid starts tomorrow.
Right now symptoms are massive congestion, cough and a fever that is trying to decide to come or go. All in all, if the given the choice I wouldn’t get it again. Zero out 5 stars.
Right now symptoms are massive congestion, cough and a fever that is trying to decide to come or go. All in all, if the given the choice I wouldn’t get it again. Zero out 5 stars.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
and this is the part that caught my attention:
The right question
Boosters provide substantive and unequivocal benefit for protection from severe Covid and help reduce Long Covid (magnitude uncertain), and still, despite the challenges of Omicron, have some early (~2 months) effect for reducing infection and transmission. We don’t know yet if the BA.5 bivalent booster is any better than the BA.1 or the original booster. Based on the evolution of the virus through Omicron and its subvariants, it appears unlikely the new vaccine will have a major or important impact on reducing infection or transmission (we got a hint of that from the new BA.1 NEJM study above). There’s ample evidence from multiple studies that mucosal IgA antibodies are what will be needed to help block infections and transmission, such as this NEJM new report with 60-80% reduction of breakthrough infections (and reduced viral load, higher Ct, Tables below) as a function of mucosal IgA antibodies, not related to IgG antibodies. While they were formed in some health care workers as a response to vaccination and or infection, there is a way to induce them via nasal or oral vaccines. The durability of this effect isn’t yet known, but it would be far easier to take a nasal spray repetitively, with expectation of much less side effects, than shots. Certainly encouraging data from CanSino’s newly approved inhaled vaccine vs Omicron is a solid precursor for the many programs that are in advanced clinical trials.
The right question is about the future. We can’t go on getting boosters every 4 to 6 months and the premise of an “annual” shot is that the virus exhibits seasonality like flu, which certainly isn’t the case.
We have a new variant to be concerned about: BA.2.75.2, a daughter of BA.2.75 ,with three new spike mutations that are troubling. You can see its immune escape from the new preprint from Ben Murrell and colleagues. This variant has the most immune escape these investigators at the Karolinska Institute have yet seen, and that has been replicated by Yunlong Cao’s group in Peking. Given these observations, our current variant-chasing strategy to catch up to BA.5 will not likely help us counter BA.2.75.2. That underscores the need for variant-proof efforts.
Couldn't agree more with the last paragraph:
and this is the part that caught my attention:
The right question
Boosters provide substantive and unequivocal benefit for protection from severe Covid and help reduce Long Covid (magnitude uncertain), and still, despite the challenges of Omicron, have some early (~2 months) effect for reducing infection and transmission. We don’t know yet if the BA.5 bivalent booster is any better than the BA.1 or the original booster. Based on the evolution of the virus through Omicron and its subvariants, it appears unlikely the new vaccine will have a major or important impact on reducing infection or transmission (we got a hint of that from the new BA.1 NEJM study above). There’s ample evidence from multiple studies that mucosal IgA antibodies are what will be needed to help block infections and transmission, such as this NEJM new report with 60-80% reduction of breakthrough infections (and reduced viral load, higher Ct, Tables below) as a function of mucosal IgA antibodies, not related to IgG antibodies. While they were formed in some health care workers as a response to vaccination and or infection, there is a way to induce them via nasal or oral vaccines. The durability of this effect isn’t yet known, but it would be far easier to take a nasal spray repetitively, with expectation of much less side effects, than shots. Certainly encouraging data from CanSino’s newly approved inhaled vaccine vs Omicron is a solid precursor for the many programs that are in advanced clinical trials.
The right question is about the future. We can’t go on getting boosters every 4 to 6 months and the premise of an “annual” shot is that the virus exhibits seasonality like flu, which certainly isn’t the case.
We have a new variant to be concerned about: BA.2.75.2, a daughter of BA.2.75 ,with three new spike mutations that are troubling. You can see its immune escape from the new preprint from Ben Murrell and colleagues. This variant has the most immune escape these investigators at the Karolinska Institute have yet seen, and that has been replicated by Yunlong Cao’s group in Peking. Given these observations, our current variant-chasing strategy to catch up to BA.5 will not likely help us counter BA.2.75.2. That underscores the need for variant-proof efforts.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Meanwhile back at the farm, our leadership is saying "we're good" and aborting most funding and efforts to do what is needed. Yay midterm elections?Couldn't agree more with the last paragraph:
and this is the part that caught my attention:
The right question
Boosters provide substantive and unequivocal benefit for protection from severe Covid and help reduce Long Covid (magnitude uncertain), and still, despite the challenges of Omicron, have some early (~2 months) effect for reducing infection and transmission. We don’t know yet if the BA.5 bivalent booster is any better than the BA.1 or the original booster. Based on the evolution of the virus through Omicron and its subvariants, it appears unlikely the new vaccine will have a major or important impact on reducing infection or transmission (we got a hint of that from the new BA.1 NEJM study above). There’s ample evidence from multiple studies that mucosal IgA antibodies are what will be needed to help block infections and transmission, such as this NEJM new report with 60-80% reduction of breakthrough infections (and reduced viral load, higher Ct, Tables below) as a function of mucosal IgA antibodies, not related to IgG antibodies. While they were formed in some health care workers as a response to vaccination and or infection, there is a way to induce them via nasal or oral vaccines. The durability of this effect isn’t yet known, but it would be far easier to take a nasal spray repetitively, with expectation of much less side effects, than shots. Certainly encouraging data from CanSino’s newly approved inhaled vaccine vs Omicron is a solid precursor for the many programs that are in advanced clinical trials.
The right question is about the future. We can’t go on getting boosters every 4 to 6 months and the premise of an “annual” shot is that the virus exhibits seasonality like flu, which certainly isn’t the case.
We have a new variant to be concerned about: BA.2.75.2, a daughter of BA.2.75 ,with three new spike mutations that are troubling. You can see its immune escape from the new preprint from Ben Murrell and colleagues. This variant has the most immune escape these investigators at the Karolinska Institute have yet seen, and that has been replicated by Yunlong Cao’s group in Peking. Given these observations, our current variant-chasing strategy to catch up to BA.5 will not likely help us counter BA.2.75.2. That underscores the need for variant-proof efforts.
Doug B
Footballguy
Severity?
Getting COVID often should eventually start mattering a whole lot less (in the way our dozens of annual rhinovirus infections usually don't matter), but it's going to take more time for the main run of society to get to that point.
Doug B
Footballguy
mild, slight fever, congestion, sore throat. All have it like a bad cold. But who gets dozens of rhinovirus infections a year?
BTW out of the dozens of people I have known who have gotten COVID since 2020, I dont know a single person who has had it severe OR gotten long covid.
Doug B
Footballguy
Thankfully, work on Walter Reed's pan-variant vaccine continues apace -- and one hopes the nation's defense budget is safe. Very quietly, they've been on human trials since June:
One challenge in recruiting participants:
Doug B
Footballguy
You and I do -- 99+% of them are asymptomatic.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
One of my neighbors who is in charge of the COVID response for one of the local universities here keeps telling my wife that her research shows that repeated infection potentially causes organ damage.
Not that I have seen. Jobarules is not an anti-vaxxer and I believe he said it. Personally I am vaccinated with one booster and my experience recently with my Dad and brother getting COVID makes me want to hold off on any more boosters. Very minimal symptoms for both of them.
I know case counts aren't super important (right now at least) but IMO the numbers being reported are less accurate than ever. I know more people who have had covid in the last few weeks than at any point during the pandemic, and I'd wager that close to zero of them have been "reported". Our schools aren't even tracking or doing contact tracing anymore (and yes, it's spreading a lot in schools).
Here's hoping one of these new variants doesn't kick our
...
Here's hoping one of these new variants doesn't kick our
...
Doug B
Footballguy
(NOTE: Recent figures in the Worldometers graphs can get large adjustments as much as two weeks after they first drop. Accordingly, I've waited ten days to let the last-week Monday (September 12) numbers settle in. They will likely rise slightly by next week's update.)
Updating numbers to see where things have been standing recently from a top-of-the-mountain view. All figures below are 7-day averages from Worldometers U.S. graphs here. In the United States:
CASES ON THU 09/22/2022
Thu 01/13/2022 - 826,713 <--OMICRON BA.1 SURGE HIGH
Tue 02/01/2022 - 425,029
Thu 02/17/2022 - 116,616
Mon 02/28/2022 - 62,205
Mon 03/14/2022 - 32,900
Sat 04/02/2022 - 27,313 <--2022 LOW
Mon 04/18/2022 - 40,892
Mon 05/02/2022 - 63,279
Mon 05/16/2022 - 100,359
Mon 05/30/2022 - 110,505
Mon 06/13/2022 - 107,785
Mon 06/27/2022 - 113,557
Mon 07/11/2022 - 120,686
Fri 07/15/2022 - 133,047 <--OMICRON BA.4/BA.5 SURGE HIGH
Mon 07/18/2022 - 132,635
Mon 07/25/2022 - 132,235
Mon 08/01/2022 - 125,348
Mon 08/08/2022 - 112,062
Mon 08/15/2022 - 102,411
Mon 08/22/2022 - 94,098
Mon 08/29/2022 - 89,802
Mon 09/05/2022 - 78,963
Mon 09/12/2022 - 62,304 (est 57,997 on 9/15/2022)
Sun 09/18/2022 - 52,666 <--provisional count
Mon 09/19/2022 - 50,889 <--provisional estimate
Mon 09/20/2022 - 49,112 <--provisional count
DEATHS ON THU 09/22/2022
Sun 01/29/2022 - 2,822 <--OMICRON BA.1 SURGE HIGH
Fri 02/18/2022 - 2,190
Mon 02/28/2022 - 1,740
Mon 03/14/2022 - 1,105
Mon 03/28/2022 - 623
Mon 04/11/2022 - 487
Mon 05/02/2022 - 338
Sat 05/14/2022 - 284 <--2022 LOW
Mon 05/16/2022 - 291
Mon 06/06/2022 - 341
Mon 06/20/2022 - 320
Mon 07/04/2022 - 376
Mon 07/11/2022 - 396
Mon 07/18/2022 - 432
Mon 07/25/2022 - 460
Mon 08/01/2022 - 455
Mon 08/08/2022 - 508
Thu 08/11/2022 - 516 <--OMICRON BA.4/BA.5 SURGE HIGH
Mon 08/15/2022 - 493
Mon 08/22/2022 - 468
Mon 08/29/2022 - 452
Mon 09/05/2022 - 402
Mon 09/12/2022 - 382 <--provisional estimate (was 312 on 9/15/2022)
Mon 09/19/2022 - 308 <--provisional count
CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 826,760 on 1/13/2022, and was provisionally 62,304 on 9/12/2022. Starting from a peak on July 15, 2022, the 7-day average case numbers have continuously declined for ten weeks now. The decline is accelerating to the point of being decoupled from the death trendline.
DEATHS: 7-day average of confirmed COVID deaths in the U.S. peaked at 2,822 on 1/29/2022, and is estimated at 382 on 9/12/2022. The 7-day average deaths on 8/11/2022 is the new spring/summer high, now adjusted to 516. The decline in deaths continues, but still dropping far more slowly than cases. Disappointingly, the Labor Day number ticked above 400 (402) after adjustments.
For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the initial thrust of vaccinations and before summer 2021's Delta surge.
CASES: 12,364 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 245 on 7/8/2021
Updating numbers to see where things have been standing recently from a top-of-the-mountain view. All figures below are 7-day averages from Worldometers U.S. graphs here. In the United States:
CASES ON THU 09/22/2022
Thu 01/13/2022 - 826,713 <--OMICRON BA.1 SURGE HIGH
Tue 02/01/2022 - 425,029
Thu 02/17/2022 - 116,616
Mon 02/28/2022 - 62,205
Mon 03/14/2022 - 32,900
Sat 04/02/2022 - 27,313 <--2022 LOW
Mon 04/18/2022 - 40,892
Mon 05/02/2022 - 63,279
Mon 05/16/2022 - 100,359
Mon 05/30/2022 - 110,505
Mon 06/13/2022 - 107,785
Mon 06/27/2022 - 113,557
Mon 07/11/2022 - 120,686
Fri 07/15/2022 - 133,047 <--OMICRON BA.4/BA.5 SURGE HIGH
Mon 07/18/2022 - 132,635
Mon 07/25/2022 - 132,235
Mon 08/01/2022 - 125,348
Mon 08/08/2022 - 112,062
Mon 08/15/2022 - 102,411
Mon 08/22/2022 - 94,098
Mon 08/29/2022 - 89,802
Mon 09/05/2022 - 78,963
Mon 09/12/2022 - 62,304 (est 57,997 on 9/15/2022)
Sun 09/18/2022 - 52,666 <--provisional count
Mon 09/19/2022 - 50,889 <--provisional estimate
Mon 09/20/2022 - 49,112 <--provisional count
DEATHS ON THU 09/22/2022
Sun 01/29/2022 - 2,822 <--OMICRON BA.1 SURGE HIGH
Fri 02/18/2022 - 2,190
Mon 02/28/2022 - 1,740
Mon 03/14/2022 - 1,105
Mon 03/28/2022 - 623
Mon 04/11/2022 - 487
Mon 05/02/2022 - 338
Sat 05/14/2022 - 284 <--2022 LOW
Mon 05/16/2022 - 291
Mon 06/06/2022 - 341
Mon 06/20/2022 - 320
Mon 07/04/2022 - 376
Mon 07/11/2022 - 396
Mon 07/18/2022 - 432
Mon 07/25/2022 - 460
Mon 08/01/2022 - 455
Mon 08/08/2022 - 508
Thu 08/11/2022 - 516 <--OMICRON BA.4/BA.5 SURGE HIGH
Mon 08/15/2022 - 493
Mon 08/22/2022 - 468
Mon 08/29/2022 - 452
Mon 09/05/2022 - 402
Mon 09/12/2022 - 382 <--provisional estimate (was 312 on 9/15/2022)
Mon 09/19/2022 - 308 <--provisional count
CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 826,760 on 1/13/2022, and was provisionally 62,304 on 9/12/2022. Starting from a peak on July 15, 2022, the 7-day average case numbers have continuously declined for ten weeks now. The decline is accelerating to the point of being decoupled from the death trendline.
DEATHS: 7-day average of confirmed COVID deaths in the U.S. peaked at 2,822 on 1/29/2022, and is estimated at 382 on 9/12/2022. The 7-day average deaths on 8/11/2022 is the new spring/summer high, now adjusted to 516. The decline in deaths continues, but still dropping far more slowly than cases. Disappointingly, the Labor Day number ticked above 400 (402) after adjustments.
For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the initial thrust of vaccinations and before summer 2021's Delta surge.
CASES: 12,364 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 245 on 7/8/2021
Doug B
Footballguy
I'm starting to wonder if there are a significant number of COVID deaths that only get in the system as COVID cases on or near the pronouncement of death. Detected cases have been moving downward at haste since mid-July. And while there has been a concomitant decline in deaths since August 11th, it hasn't been at nearly the same rate of decline as the cases. That seems to say something about the observed numbers.
Doug B
Footballguy
Your neighbor is not wrong -- it's just that "potentially" is doing a lot of work in that sentence.
For instance, how independent is the observed organ damage of age and the usual comorbidities? Do aspects of COVID organ damage -- likelihood of onset, expected severity, recoverability, etc. -- differ or align with long-studied viral-infection-induced organ damage such as dengue fever and influenza?
One thing that is apparently different about COVID versus most other viruses is how quickly one can be reinfected. So, yeah, it's highly unlikely to go through multiple influenza infections with a year, whereas for COVID this has been observed with some frequency.
All of this is an important reason that one or both of the nasal vaccine and the pan-variant vaccine has to come through. COVID transmission has to be tamped down much more effectively to mitigate the worst of its societal effects.
Last edited:
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Study challenges a longstanding myth about Covid-19 and Vitamin D
Vitamin aficionados beware.
tl;dr:
WHAT THEY FOUND — Neither study found vitamin D made a dramatic difference in the number of Covid-19 infections, serious illness (including hospitalizations and any deaths), or other respiratory tract infections between the controls and those taking the vitamin in whichever form.
"Among people aged 16 years and older with a high baseline prevalence of suboptimal vitamin D status, implementation of a population level test-and-treat approach to vitamin D supplementation was not associated with a reduction in risk of all cause acute respiratory tract infection or Covid-19," authors of the UK study wrote.
“Daily supplementation with cod liver oil, a low dose vitamin D, eicosapentaenoic acid, and docosahexaenoic acid supplement, for six months during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic among Norwegian adults, did not reduce the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, serious Covid-19, or other acute respiratory infections,” the Norwegian researchers wrote in their study.
Doug B
Footballguy
So you haven't caught COVID yet. Does that mean you're a superdodger? (NPR, 9/7/2022)
... [In the early 1990s,] scientists had identified groups of people who appeared to be completely resistant to HIV. "People who knew they had been exposed to HIV multiple times, mainly through unprotected sex, yet they clearly were not infected," Landau explains.
And so the race was on to figure out why: "Are these people just lucky or did they really have a mutation in their genes that was protecting them from infection?'" he asks.
Now 25 years later, scientists all over the world are trying to answer the same question but about a different virus: SARS-CoV-2.
By this point in the pandemic, most Americans have had at least one bout of COVID. For children under age 18, more than 80% have been infected, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates.
But just as with HIV, some people have been exposed multiple times but never had symptoms and never tested positive.
"We've heard countless anecdotes about nurses and health-care workers, being exposed without any protection and remaining negative over and over again," says pediatrician Jean-Laurent Casanova, who studies the genetics of viral resistance at Rockefeller University. "Or people share a household with someone who's been coughing for a couple of weeks, and one person stays negative."
So why haven't these people caught COVID?
"These findings are like hot off the presses," says immunogeneticist Jill Hollenbach, who led this research. "We haven't published them yet. It's all stuff that's been happening this summer."
Hollenbach and her team have found a genetic mutation doesn't prevent the virus from infecting cells — that's what Landau was searching for — but still does something remarkable: It prevents a person from having COVID symptoms.
Turns out, stopping an infection altogether is an extremely tough nut for our bodies to crack.
Doug B
Footballguy
From the same NPR article (it's long, but very insightful):
Since the pandemic began, Jill Hollenbach and her colleagues at UCSF have been studying people who test positive COVID but show no symptoms. "Not even a sniffle or a scratchy throat," she says. "So they are entirely asymptomatic."
After analyzing DNA from more than 1,400 people, they identified a mutation that helps a person clear out SARS-CoV-2 so fast that their body doesn't have a chance to develop symptoms.
The mutation occurs in a gene called HLA, which is critical during the earliest stages of infection. Hollenbach and her colleagues found that having a particular mutation in that gene increases a person's chance of being asymptomatic by almost 10 times. They reported those preliminary findings online last September.
Since then, they've gone on to show how this mutation works. And it has to do with your immune system preparing for SARS-CoV-2 before the pandemic even began back in 2019.
When viruses first enter cells, HLA signals to the immune system that cells are invaded and need help. That signal triggers a cascade of events that ultimately leads your body to make potent weapons specifically designed to fight SARS-CoV-2. These weapons include antibodies and T cells that uniquely recognize pieces of this virus. Once these targeted weapons are available, your immune system has a much easier time clearing up the infection. But these weapons take time to manufacture. And that delay allows the infection to spread and symptoms to develop.
But what if, for some lucky reason, your immune system already had weapons specifically targeted to SARS-CoV-2?
This summer, Hollenbach and her colleagues demonstrated that, with a specific mutation in HLA, some people have T cells that are already pre-programmed to recognize and fight off SARS-CoV-2. So there's no delay in generating COVID-specfic weaponry. It's already there.
"Your immune response and these T cells fire up much more quickly [than in a person without the HLA mutation]," Hollenbach says. "So for lack of a better term, you basically nuke the infection before you even start to have symptoms."
But here's the kicker. For the HLA mutation to work (and for you to have these pre-armed T cells), you first had to have been infected with another coronavirus.
"Most of us have been exposed to some common cold coronavirus at some point in life," she explains. And we all generate T cells to fight off these colds. But if you also have this mutation in your HLA, Hollenbach says, then just by mere luck, these T cells you make can also fight off SARS-CoV-2.
"It's definitely luck," she says. "But, you know, this mutation is quite common. We estimate that maybe 1 in 10 people have it. And in people who are asymptomatic, that rises to 1 in 5."
Doug B
Footballguy
@jobarules , one of the main prongs of this COVID superdodger research is happening in your backyard -- and they are looking for study participants right now. From the same NPR link:
Dr. Casanova's contact information through Rockefeller University is public (bottom of this page).
While Hollenbach and her team continue to look for more minidodger genes, [Dr. Jean-Laurent] Casanova over at Rockefeller University and his colleagues are still trying to determine if there are true superdodger genes. And he's looking for participants right now for his study.
"You fill out a questionnaire online about your exposures to SARS-CoV-2," he says. And then if you meet the criteria of a superdodger, the team sends you a testing kit. Basically you spit in a cup and mail it back to Casanova and his collaborators.
"We'll extract your DNA and sequence your genome," he explains. "We hope that in a group of 2,000 to 4,000 people, some people will have genetic mutations that tell us why they're resistant to infection."
Dr. Casanova's contact information through Rockefeller University is public (bottom of this page).
HellToupee
Footballguy
Just finished up on paxlovid the other day. Good god the nasty taste is all it’s hyped to be
IrishTwinkie
Footballguy
Yes. Yes it is.
ETA: I’m not done yet, so a couple of more morning to “look forward to”.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Getting my updated microchip today.
Any word on FDA approval on the 5-12 year old group for the bivalent vaccine? I have been holding my kids back from their booster since infection in early June, but with cases on the rise in the UK, the next wave will be here soon, so I want them to get their shot soon. But prefer to have the new one if possible.
Any word on FDA approval on the 5-12 year old group for the bivalent vaccine? I have been holding my kids back from their booster since infection in early June, but with cases on the rise in the UK, the next wave will be here soon, so I want them to get their shot soon. But prefer to have the new one if possible.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
it was announced yesterday that Pfizer applied for EUA for theirs for ages 5-11
Pfizer and BioNTech Submit Application to U.S. FDA for Emergency Use Authorization of Omicron BA.4/BA.5-Adapted Bivalent Vaccine Booster in Children 5 Through 11 Years of Age
Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (Nasdaq: BNTX) today announced they have completed a submission to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) reques...
www.businesswire.com
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Looks like the next FDA Advisory Committee meeting on covid/vaccines is October 6. Hopefully they vote then.it was announced yesterday that Pfizer applied for EUA for theirs for ages 5-11
Pfizer and BioNTech Submit Application to U.S. FDA for Emergency Use Authorization of Omicron BA.4/BA.5-Adapted Bivalent Vaccine Booster in Children 5 Through 11 Years of Age
Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (Nasdaq: BNTX) today announced they have completed a submission to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) reques...www.businesswire.com
SwampDawg
Footballguy
Well we finally got hit after avoiding this demon. Last Wednesday after getting home from soccer my son complained he was achy, not that odd other then the game was pretty easy and he didn't work that hard. By 11:00 he had a fever and sore throat. Tested and he was positive. Tested the rest of us and all negative so we isolated him. By Friday I was starting to feel achy but we all tested again and still negative. By Saturday morning every joint and muscle hurt and felt exhausted and my wife also started feeling bad, this time we both came up positive. My wife stocked up Thursday on Zinc, Vitamin D and Vitamin C and started hitting our son with those so we started them as well. Saturday and Sunday were miserable, everything ached, felt totally exhausted. Son had a low grade fever all weekend that wouldn't go away and a headache and achy, wife was more like me but with a headache/sinus issues as well. Yesterday I woke up feeling somewhat better, lasted about two hours and I hit a wall and started to feel exhausted again and my nose running like crazy.
My wife called the doctors office yesterday and they called us in anti-virals, oddly they gave us two different things. I got Nirmatrelvir (Paxlovid) and she got Molnupiravir, started those last night. I feel a ton better today, more like a normal cold, been able to be on some calls for work this morning and get some things done. Not sure I can go all day but better. Wife says she feels a little better as well. Son's fever is gone bust he still has a headache and overall achy feel. He considered going back to school today but will wait until tomorrow. Oddly our other son has been fine, tested multiple times and always negative, no symptoms and feels fine. He's mostly just stayed in his room since Friday evening when the rest of us started feeling bad. Been helpful to have him to run to the store and pick up the meds and food.
My wife called the doctors office yesterday and they called us in anti-virals, oddly they gave us two different things. I got Nirmatrelvir (Paxlovid) and she got Molnupiravir, started those last night. I feel a ton better today, more like a normal cold, been able to be on some calls for work this morning and get some things done. Not sure I can go all day but better. Wife says she feels a little better as well. Son's fever is gone bust he still has a headache and overall achy feel. He considered going back to school today but will wait until tomorrow. Oddly our other son has been fine, tested multiple times and always negative, no symptoms and feels fine. He's mostly just stayed in his room since Friday evening when the rest of us started feeling bad. Been helpful to have him to run to the store and pick up the meds and food.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Fall bivalent boosters: Science update
The fall booster roll-out is well on its way.
yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Fall bivalent boosters: Science update
The fall booster roll-out is well on its way.
Got my Moderna bivalent booster yesterday. This is a walk in the park compared to prior shots. Where I was basically bedridden the day after each of the prior shots, I am working normally today. I took an Advil before bed as I had a slight headache, and I had a headache earlier this morning as well, so took another. But other than that, being a little more tired than usual, and feeling somewhat off or off-balance from time to time, I am totally fine. Keeping my massage appointment for tomorrow . . . .
I felt tired the first night and a little arm soreness. That’s it. I really never had any issues beyond that for earlier shots. No one in my family had any adverse reactions to any just a little fatigue and soreness.Fall bivalent boosters: Science update
The fall booster roll-out is well on its way.
Got my Moderna bivalent booster yesterday. This is a walk in the park compared to prior shots. Where I was basically bedridden the day after each of the prior shots, I am working normally today. I took an Advil before bed as I had a slight headache, and I had a headache earlier this morning as well, so took another. But other than that, being a little more tired than usual, and feeling somewhat off or off-balance from time to time, I am totally fine. Keeping my massage appointment for tomorrow . . . .
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Not surprising, as most studies on vitamins fail to live up to the hype rampant in the nutraceutical world. Meanwhile, people eagerly consume fistfuls of supplements, while simultaneously complaining vaccines and other conventional medications aren’t adequately tested.Study challenges a longstanding myth about Covid-19 and Vitamin D
Vitamin aficionados beware.www.inverse.com
tl;dr:
WHAT THEY FOUND — Neither study found vitamin D made a dramatic difference in the number of Covid-19 infections, serious illness (including hospitalizations and any deaths), or other respiratory tract infections between the controls and those taking the vitamin in whichever form.
"Among people aged 16 years and older with a high baseline prevalence of suboptimal vitamin D status, implementation of a population level test-and-treat approach to vitamin D supplementation was not associated with a reduction in risk of all cause acute respiratory tract infection or Covid-19," authors of the UK study wrote.
“Daily supplementation with cod liver oil, a low dose vitamin D, eicosapentaenoic acid, and docosahexaenoic acid supplement, for six months during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic among Norwegian adults, did not reduce the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, serious Covid-19, or other acute respiratory infections,” the Norwegian researchers wrote in their study.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
While I agree it’s preferable to be ahead of the curve, I dont think it’s ridiculous to believe we can reduce the frequency of boosters more in-line with things like flu. After all, coronaviruses mutate more slowly than influenza - the problem is, there’s a lot more SARS-CoV-2 around to mutate. That should decrease as the pandemic runs its course, though COVID’s lack of seasonality is also an issue.
and this is the part that caught my attention:
The right question
Boosters provide substantive and unequivocal benefit for protection from severe Covid and help reduce Long Covid (magnitude uncertain), and still, despite the challenges of Omicron, have some early (~2 months) effect for reducing infection and transmission. We don’t know yet if the BA.5 bivalent booster is any better than the BA.1 or the original booster. Based on the evolution of the virus through Omicron and its subvariants, it appears unlikely the new vaccine will have a major or important impact on reducing infection or transmission (we got a hint of that from the new BA.1 NEJM study above). There’s ample evidence from multiple studies that mucosal IgA antibodies are what will be needed to help block infections and transmission, such as this NEJM new report with 60-80% reduction of breakthrough infections (and reduced viral load, higher Ct, Tables below) as a function of mucosal IgA antibodies, not related to IgG antibodies. While they were formed in some health care workers as a response to vaccination and or infection, there is a way to induce them via nasal or oral vaccines. The durability of this effect isn’t yet known, but it would be far easier to take a nasal spray repetitively, with expectation of much less side effects, than shots. Certainly encouraging data from CanSino’s newly approved inhaled vaccine vs Omicron is a solid precursor for the many programs that are in advanced clinical trials.
The right question is about the future. We can’t go on getting boosters every 4 to 6 months and the premise of an “annual” shot is that the virus exhibits seasonality like flu, which certainly isn’t the case.
We have a new variant to be concerned about: BA.2.75.2, a daughter of BA.2.75 ,with three new spike mutations that are troubling. You can see its immune escape from the new preprint from Ben Murrell and colleagues. This variant has the most immune escape these investigators at the Karolinska Institute have yet seen, and that has been replicated by Yunlong Cao’s group in Peking. Given these observations, our current variant-chasing strategy to catch up to BA.5 will not likely help us counter BA.2.75.2. That underscores the need for variant-proof efforts.
The more I read about inhaled/ingested vaccines, the less I think they are the answer. Too much of mucosal immunity is nonspecific, so targeting the cells central to antibody production is problematic. Moreover, selective IgA deficiency is the most common inherited immune deficiency.
No problem is insurmountable, but there‘re multiple reasons to believe we‘ll settle on a strategy similar to flu: a combination of decent, but not perfect vaccines and therapeutics, with acceptance that tens of thousands of people will still die each year. Extra morbidity from long covid makes matters worse, but I guess we should be thankful we’re not losing 1000+ Americans daily any more.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
I’d be interested in that as well, as everything I’ve seen shows Zn, vit D and C do next to nothing, except in people who are severely nutritional deficient.
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