Debating the following three for this week...
Detroit vs. Minny - Detroit is second in the league in scoring D and first in total yards allowed per game. They're a strong real life D, and to date have been a solid fantasy D as well. They're allowing the 4th fewest rushing yards per game and the 5th fewest passing yards per game. Clearly a recipe for success (or at least a solid bet for numbers) when you consider they're also 6th in sacks with 12 so far on the season... but they're 20th in takeaways. This Minny team isn't the same as the one QB'd by Ponder or Cassell - Teddy can play. I'm a tick nervous that Minny puts up some points, but I think this is a safe bet if Detroit is available.
Houston vs. Indy - You're counting on a couple of things if you go this route: 1) Thursday night games have been ugly to date; 2) the Texans D has been solid to date against some solid offenses; 3) Indy may not have the running game to take advantage of Houston's biggest weakness; 4) Houston is at home. I don't like betting against Andrew Luck with a fantasy DST, but Houston at home has been a solid play, and outside of the Giants game on the road in NYC, Houston has scored an average of 12.5 PPG (21, 9, 13, 7). Unlike Detroit, they're 21st in passing yards allowed and 25th in rushing yards allowed, yet somehow 4th in scoring D - the definition of bend don't break. They're also racking up the big plays; despite being 23rd in sacks, they lead the league in takeaways with 12 on the season. Again, likely a solid bet on a short week at home, and they just held the Dallas offense in check, which statistically is darn near the Colts' equal in total yards per game and points per game, despite Dallas doing most of its damage on the ground while Indy goes through the air. That may actually play into Houston's hands a little better.
Indy vs. Houston - The flip side of the Thursday night matchup is a tough test for the Indy D that's been' on a roll. The past 3 weeks Indy has posted an average of 13.3 PPG, taking full advantage of a favorable schedule. Indy's run D ranks 12th in the league in yards per game, while the passing D is 16th, and the scoring D is 15th in PPG -- in other words, middle of the pack. Like Houston, they're scoring on big plays, tied for fourth in the league in takeaways with 10, and tied for 6th in the league in sacks. Ultimately, if Foster is unable to go (which it seems like he'll play at this point), I'd be comfortable betting on Indy for this week as Fitzmagic just doesn't scare me and Blue, while playing well considering he's a rookie, just isn't Foster. If Foster plays, I still doubt this one ends terribly for Indy, but they lose some of their luster.
Moving forward, schedules for the three are as follows:
DET - @MIN, NO, @ATL, BYE
HOU - IND, @PIT, @TEN, PHI
IND - @HOU, vs. CIN, @PIT, @NYG
If you're playing for just this week and plan to go elsewhere for the next few, I'd take DET. But I sure wouldn't want to play them vs. NO or @ATL... not until they prove shutting down GB was completely legit (which they'd need to do, for me, against NO - while on my bench). Houston's stretch looks pretty good prior to that Philly game, though the Pittsburgh running game is a bit scary. Houston also should be welcoming some dude named Jadeveon back into the fold shortly. Indy would be a 1 week rental for me.
Any thoughts?