Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
guess it depends on your team but on the surface
Thomas > Matthews
2.07 > Coates
3.9,3.10 > 2017 3rd
Thomas side
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
Thomas > Matthews
2.07 > Coates
3.9,3.10 > 2017 3rd
Thomas side
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
Moncrief = 1.02
Vereen, 2.6, 2017 2nd slightly < 1.8, 3.8
so I'll take the Moncrief side but this is close and depends on your opinion of this year's wrs vs moncrief IMO
One More Rep
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
jeaton6
Footballguy
Let me guess "The Hunters" just changed his team name, already had Justin and now added Hunter Henry?
steelers1080
Footballguy
It's probably just a difference in how we view each of these players and an opinion on the talent coming out next year (2017 1st) but I think you lost all 3 trades. I understand the need to grab another QB, but just basing this off the value you got in return. Also, Riddick is a powerhouse in PPR (80+ catches last year).
Never been a fan of Allen and he seems to get hurt all the time, and Parker looks like he could be a solid #1 WR in Gase's offense.
Reed is an injury risk, so I understand trading him for Eifert who should see more targets with the WRs leaving in Cincy, but right now Reed has a chance to be the #1 TE in fantasy for years to come while I don't see Eifert having that upside. Assuming Brady doesn't last forever, Gronk could see his value diminish in 2-3 years, while Reed is still entering his prime.
SieteCinco
Footballguy
Have to say I agree for the most part!
QBs are extremely difficult to come by in this league, and aside from moving Julio/AJG for a tier 2-3 QB there was no other option if I wanted to compete. Even the Brees/Osweiller/Rivers/Cutler/Stafford owners wanted more than I paid for Rivers.
My gut was telling me not to do the Parker deal, but I liked the way my starting lineup looked with Allen in it:
QB: Aaron Rodgers
QB: Matt Ryan
WR: Julio Jones
WR: AJ Green - Stefon Diggs - DeSean
WR: Keenan Allen - Breshad Perriman
RB: Matt Jones - Frank Gore
RB: Thomas Rawls - Ryan Mathews
TE: Tyler Eifert - Julius Thomas
I wouldn't be surprised if Reed outscores Eifert, but Tyler just felt like a safer investment. My roster felt like it was an injury away from not competing, so I think that led me to playing it safe with Keenan Allen/Tyler Eifert. Plus, I picked up Reed for a mid 3rd last year, so flipping him for Eifert this year seemed like a good return on my investment:
steelers1080
Footballguy
Pretty nice roster, wouldn't be shocked if by week 5 your backup RBs were starting for you. Gore is old and slow, but in that offense could still put up points, and if Jones fumbles once or twice, he could be sat. And Mathews really has no competition in Philly for carries, and their new HC loves to run the ball a ton. Also, Rawls might be an injury risk, unsure at this point.
SieteCinco
Footballguy
I like Mathews quite a bit this year actually, but RB is next on the list of needs to address for this roster. I wanted to feel comfortable short and longterm at QB/WR/TE before investing too heavily in running backs.
QBs are gold in this format and league specifically, so having Ryan/Rodgers to build around should save me a lot later on down the road (Winston, for example, went ahead of Cooper/Gurley in our draft last year, Manziel 1.01 when he came out, so landing even a rookie QB will cost you and arm and a leg + your first born)
jeaton6
Footballguy
Pwingles
Footballguy
ew.
Not high on Gordon at all, but im gambling all day for the 2.06, the other pick is gravy
Pwingles
Footballguy
fleener
what? Duke... easily
DT, not close for me
1.02 side
so fleener for a '17 1 and 2? wowzers
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
12 team PPR (no flex)
Stefon Diggs, 2.9 OTC (took Fuller)
for
Melvin Gordon, 4.4
Stefon Diggs, 2.9 OTC (took Fuller)
for
Melvin Gordon, 4.4
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Pwingles
Footballguy
not high on gordon or fuller or diggs, but I think ill take the 2 wr here and try and flip one (or both) later
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Yeah, just some context, I am the one getting Gordon. At WR I have Green, Julio, Demaryius, Watkins, Maclin, and Perriman. So this was sort of my chance to flip the WR for something that might help me - RB depth. If Gordon does well, I can flip a producing RB for more than I could a producing Diggs or Fuller, I think. Was willing to overpay a little. Probably my best "on paper" team but haven't won yet so trying to add to the chances.
Pwingles
Footballguy
if gordon is even remotely good, im not sure itll be an overpay, and you prolly could flip him for at least what youd get for diggs or fuller. Although, I think fuller will retain his value throughout next offseason, diggs, im not so sure. People were going nuts for him early this off season. Saw a couple early 1's and a couple player+late 1st deals. Ew
Hawkeye Hellraiser
Footballguy
To be fair, if this wasn't a TE premium league, I would agree with you, but I have emphasized the importance on my rosters to carry more than 2 TE's that have the capability of being a TE1 type in TE premium type leagues. If you can find one that produces stats on a similar clip to a WR (Gronk, Graham), it can give you a huge advantage.
I would say last year at this time, Kelce, Eifert, and ASJ were all thought of as in that same tier getting ready to take the next step. Kelce and Eifert did that - ASJ's injuries primarily prevented him from taking the leap last year. Heck, even Jordan Reed took the big leap last year by staying healthy. His week 1 performance last year looked like the start of a breakout before that and am hopeful that simply staying healthy will be the key for him to be a huge presence. Good young QB, potential to be a target machine in that offense (Evans is the only one I would clearly put in front of him), great size/speed combo. He's someone who has the talent to be a solid TE1 if he stays healthy and consistent. If not, he could turn into the next Jerramy Stevens.
I think you're also underselling that it's rare for TE's to come into the NFL and make an immediate impact. The pieces are there for a breakout if he can put it together.
As for Lacy, I didn't love giving him up in a deal, as for the reasons below, I believe he has a good opportunity for a bounceback, but had to also look at the facts that he was coming off a completely underwhelming season that was good for 187-758-3 and 20-188-2, good for 144.6 FP and RB32 overall, yet the price tag on him is a top 10 dynasty RB?
From where I stand, there are three risk factors for which Lacy is being pumped up (and I believe being maxed out for dynasty value):
1. The P90X workouts and the pictures of Lacy being out of shape. There's no questioning that Lacy's conditioning looked terrible - and his rushing attempts dropped by almost 25% last season (246 to 187) and his targets dropped by 50% (55 to 28). Risk factor - What if the Packers front office really wants Starks to maintain an active role in the offense and it wasn't solely the conditioning?
2. Return from regression of TD totals in his first two seasons. Lacy scored 11 TD's in 2013, 13 TD's in 2014, and only 5 TD's in 2015. Risk factor - What if the return of Jordy doesn't bring the Green Bay offense back to the level of performance in 2013-14?
3. Contract year - as we know, RB's in contract years have the motivation to play for their next contract. I think some will get starry eyes looking at Doug Martin and Lamar Miller from last year, then quickly forget what happened with DeMarco Murray two years ago when he made the move to Philly. I believe his best shot at keeping and maintaining dynasty value is re-signing with Green Bay, which is still a large unknown at this point. Do you think teams are going to be salivating to sign Lacy to a long contract after seeing what has happened to his conditioning the first two seasons?
I don't want to get too far off track and turn this thread into a Lacy debate on value - just explaining my reasoning on why I made the deal. Lacy to Hill wasn't a huge downgrade to me while Tye to ASJ was a big upgrade in terms of potential.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
That's not a reason to give away Shepard for free.
I actually prefer Cobb to Allen - but obviously that's up for debate and Team B would disagree. However, it seems like a vast overpay, at the very least, to add the 1.05/1.06 to Cobb to get Allen.
thunderguns
Footballguy
A few offseason trades I've been involved with
14-teamer where my team is the top contender on paper:
14-teamer where my team is the top contender on paper:
- Gave: 2017 1st and 2nd
- Got: Cobb
- Gave: Forte, K. Benjamin, Bortles
- Got: ODB
- Gave: CJ Anderson
- Got: Josh Gordon (yes, this was a straight up gamble but I can live with losing CJ for the upside)
One More Rep
Footballguy
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
twistd
Footballguy
I agree. It is like the guy doesn't recognize that rookie picks have a different value than start up picks. Pretty one-sided IMO
This is like AJ Green and Keenan Allen plus 2 slight downgrades for those picks next year. What a crushing deal for team getting Firdt. He should be headed for pick 1.1 in 2017. Maybe he loves someone there
Tau837
Footballguy
I don't think this is true, at least not for Kelce. He was a consensus top 4 TE at this time last year, just as he is today. Personally, I had Eifert in the same tier, though it is true that some experts were too conservative with his ranking.
Tau837
Footballguy
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
steelers1080
Footballguy
Picks in a startup are generally worth way more than a rookie draft. If I was in a startup I might have traded the round 3/4 pick for round 1 next year, but here is when you're going to draft most of the building blocks. Definitely go with the 2016 picks. One example of how this could play out:twistd said:
Le'veon Bell, Andrew Luck, Jordan Reed, Sterling Shepard
For
2017 Rounds 1-7 picks (could be 12th in each round), Doug Martin, Derek Carr
I'd take the first group all day. But in my league it would probably cost Doug Martin, Derek Carr, and the 2017 picks for just Le'veon Bell.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Cobb, ODB, CJAthunderguns said:
if '17 is top 4 also, its pretty close, if not, JCCjw_55106 said:
ShepardJohnW1970 said:
pretty cheap for gurley
bostonfred
Footballguy
Picks. Coming off an ACL. Still limited. Entering his age 30 season. Same age as arian foster. Has missed more games due to injury over the last 5 years than foster.Cjw_55106 said:
http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/injury-predictor/player/8850
The emergence of capable backups is not a good thing for an older back with an injury history. The Chiefs are less likely to have him play through injury during the regular season if they think he can get healthy for a stretch run.
And he doesn't even have a clear fantasy handcuff. Even if you own both ware and west, you could be looking at a committee backfield where you don't know which to start each week.
And by buying now you eat all the risk. Can't imagine having to pay much more than an early 2016 second and a 2017 first round pick for him once the season starts even if everything goes perfect - he's 100% healthy and feeling the best he's felt in years and one of his backups is out for the season so you've even got a clear handcuff. But if he has a setback with the recovery, his value tanks. Future draft picks can't get hurt. Buy later.
Won't disagree but I think Crowder's role is established enough. Garcon/DJax and Doctson are all the outside guys and Crowder seems like the only slot guy
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Hawkeye Hellraiser
Footballguy
I guess that's fair, since Kelce didn't technically break out until the end of 2014 by my measure (his week 4 was a false breakout - and the true breakout appeared to be week 14). I would say in spite of the ranking that I wouldn't have put him as firmly established at that point, and in that same tier as ASJ as an unproven (though Kelce would have been higher ranked with more data points indicating a breakout), in other words, much closer to a mid TE1 valuation than a high TE1 valuation like Gronk/Graham.Just Win Baby said:
I'm not really concerned with Charles getting over this last injury. I'm not really concerned next season about Ware and West having looked solid, Charles has put up top 5 RB numbers on a 16-18 per game total touch basis and I think he'll still get that.Cjw_55106 said:
All that being said I take the picks.
Hawkeye Hellraiser
Footballguy
Depends on team needs for me - if I need to pare down roster spots, I take Allen. If I have the roster space, I take the greater aggregate value in Cobb/Shepard.Fish said:
Hawkeye Hellraiser
Footballguy
Give me Lockett/2nd. SEA backfield could be a cluster trying to predict the right play this season.Fish said:
Hawkeye Hellraiser
Footballguy
Wow, that really is an awful deal. If the team acquiring the 2016 picks doesn't win a championship with that type of advantage in year 1, they are doing something wrong.twistd said:
I did two startups last summer in this format, so around this time.Just Win Baby said:
Kelce was TE3 in both, going 3.6 and 3.12 in both drafts.
Eifert was pick 6.1 as TE7(to me) and at pick 6.10 as TE8 in the other draft.
ASJ went t pick 6.8 as TE10 and at pick 5.1 as TE5.
So I think it's fair to say Kelce was in a different tier but ASJ and Eifert were in a similar tier with a bunch of other mostly disappointing TE's like Julius.
And regarding ASJ I think he's past the project phase and it all boils down to staying healthy. Rookie TE's usually do next to nothing, he starts year two with a huge game and goes down in week 2. Did not do much the rest of the way and had a small sample size but was still the #14 TE in PPG in this format. With a young growing QB and playing off a field stretching WR he's in a pretty ideal spot for a long term payoff if he can stay on the field.
