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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (9 Viewers)

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I get your argument.  You are a Davis believer.  I am not as much but he does have upside.  Diggs still there and any team I have Davis wouldn't be a starter and probably isn't going to become that any time soon anyways so I'd rather take the 1st and swing for the fences as I don't believe Davis is a swing.  He will never be a WR1 on a fantasy team.  Comes down to how much you value picks and any WR (many of them available) that isn't even a WR2 right now is probably not worth a 1st in a deep draft.

Upside is king though and I have been guilty of holding a player I like and see talent in because of what I think they can become.  Nothing wrong with your thinking.  We just vary in our beliefs on Davis (maybe 1st rounders too).  I like to take shots in the 1st considering I got Jaylen Waddle and Justin Jefferson at 8 the last 2 years, give me that chance over Gabe Davis all day.
Absolutely rational approach. 

And honestly I’m not that far off on Davis from you either. I am aware of Diggs presence. I am also aware of Diggs age, and the ages of the other BUF WRs. 

I’m rebuilding for 2023 and beyond, so as I've said before, team context also matters.  If Davis has indeed locked up the WR2 role in BUF, he very well may be starting for me. But then, my cupboard is relatively bare.

so with a lack of human assets and a boatload of picks for 2023, ii don’t see how a 1.11 & 1.12 pick in 2022 would help me more than the upside of Davis might.  Especially in a year where I see about 10 year-one NFL starters and only 4 are WR. And one of them should be there for me at 1.08 In superflex. 

So all things considered, I’m holding. And regardless, no one in my league is offering me a package like that anyway, so it is truly just a thought experiment. 

 

Gally

Footballguy
I agree that it’s a better move than trading him for a 2022 1st, but I still question taking a single 1st for a player who appears to be ascending. 

At best you….replace Davis with a player you hope will be as good? 

Unless you’re stacked at the WR position & need something else, in which case I get it. But then you’re waiting 2 years to upgrade. I’d rather try to trade him for a RB or TE or whatever. 

depends how high the 1st in 2023 is of course, but it’s not a slam dunk.
I am not so sure why you think he is ascending.   If you compare numbers from this year and last year he is either stagnant or had a bit of a regression.  

I don't mind taking a chance on the guy but to say he is ascending is a bit premature based on what he has actually done.  

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I am not so sure why you think he is ascending.   If you compare numbers from this year and last year he is either stagnant or had a bit of a regression.  
 
Probably because context matters, and we’re talking about a 22 year old who was playing behind 3 starting WRs, yet still scored prolifically, despite being the 4th WR on his team. 

He certainly wasn’t regressing. 

I don't mind taking a chance on the guy but to say he is ascending is a bit premature based on what he has actually done.  
I heartily disagree. Likely departure of Sanders, Cole Beasley about to turn 33, and many believe he’ll be the starting WR2 this year. That certainly seems like an upward path. I don’t think it’s premature at all. 

 

farfromforgotten

Footballguy
Gave:

Dalvin Cook

Alexander Mattison

2022 1st Rd Pick (1.04)

Received:

D’Andre Swift

Trey Lance

A couple things of note: this is an orphan devy team that I took over. Dalvin is a stud, when healthy, and he will be turning 27 in August while Swift, who also has injury issues, just turned 23 in January. The QB pool is completely dry in this league. Before acquiring Lance my group consisted of Tannehill, Heinicke, and Mills. 

 
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Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
Gave:

Dalvin Cook

Alexander Mattison

2022 1st Rd Pick (1.04)

Received:

D’Andre Swift

Trey Lance

A couple things of note: this is an orphan devy team that I took over. Dalvin is a stud, when healthy, and he will be turning 27 in August while Swift, who also has injury issues, just turned 23 in January. The QB pool is completely dry in this league. Before acquiring Lance my group consisted of Tannehill, Heinicke, and Mills. 
Is this Superflex? If not that 1.04 seems awfully high to be included in a deal like that. 

 

farfromforgotten

Footballguy
Is this Superflex? If not that 1.04 seems awfully high to be included in a deal like that. 
It’s not and I did probably overpay. I’m putting a lot of faith in Lance developing into a top QB (blatant homer) and Swift hopefully being almost as productive as Cook going forward. 
 

This is my 1st devy league and I’m not a big fan of the draft class this year. Some of the best prospects are already on teams. For instance I already have Isaiah Spiller. Overall this team is really young. It also has Chase, Etienne, and Josh Jacobs. Diontae Johnson at 25 is probably the oldest guy that will be starting. 

Would it have been better to spend that 1.04 on a devy prospect? I’m not sure. I’ll be interested to find out though. 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Now this was a great move here.  Got in to the better draft and added a free Davis.  I like that a lot.
Ok, I kept thinking my acquisition of Davis was a larger trade than I’d remembered (I blew up my entire team for picks so I made a ton of trades - it was a whirlwind & the details became fuzzy). 

So looking back through trade logs, it was a bit more involved. Here’s the full deal:

I gave: 

Mike Evans, 2022 1st (likely top 5)

i received: 

2023 1st (top 2 - it’s my team’s pick that I got back), 2023 1st (likely 5-8), 2023 2nd (likely 5-8),  and Gabriel Davis. 

Sorry, I do try the be accurate.

Considering Brady’s retirement, I like this deal even more. Still feels like I got Davis for free. 

 
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Gally

Footballguy
Probably because context matters, and we’re talking about a 22 year old who was playing behind 3 starting WRs, yet still scored prolifically, despite being the 4th WR on his team. 

He certainly wasn’t regressing. 

I heartily disagree. Likely departure of Sanders, Cole Beasley about to turn 33, and many believe he’ll be the starting WR2 this year. That certainly seems like an upward path. I don’t think it’s premature at all. 
I agree there could be a path to more usage but nothing so far shows he is ascending based on actual performance.

I wonder if he didn't have a one off playoff game where everything fell perfectly would anybody think he is "ascending".  I am not saying to discount the game but one game doesn't change the fact that this season was a bit worse than his rookie season.

ETA:  I know you have a different opinion and that's fine.  There is a difference between speculating that his usage may increase and having it actually increase from year 1 to year 2.  I agree he should be in a better positiin next year but I disagree that he has shown an ascension to date.

 
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Boston

Footballguy
Ok, I kept thinking my acquisition of Davis was a larger trade than I’d remembered (I blew up my entire team for picks so I made a ton of trades - it was a whirlwind & the details became fuzzy). 

So looking back through trade logs, it was a bit more involved. Here’s the full deal:

I gave: 

Mike Evans, 2022 1st (likely top 5)

i received: 

2023 1st (top 2 - it’s my team’s pick that I got back), 2023 1st (likely 5-8), 2023 2nd (likely 5-8),  and Gabriel Davis. 

Sorry, I do try the be accurate.

Considering Brady’s retirement, I like this deal even more. Still feels like I got Davis for free. 
if I was a contender during the 2021 season I would really like this deal…you got a high-end WR in Evans as well as a high pick in 2022 without giving up much from your current roster and you have time to recoup your 2023 draft losses if you want to…if I was not a contender I would be good with it but you are really kicking the can down the road with the picks and I find it dangerous to project where 2023 picks will end up this far out…if Davis blows up this year this will be a good deal as it lessens the wait.

 
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Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
if I was a contender during the 2021 season I would really like this deal…you got a high-end WR in Evans as well as a high pick in 2022 without giving up much from your current roster and you have time to recoup your 2023 draft losses if you want to…if I was not a contender I would be good with it but you are really kicking the can down the road with the picks and I find it dangerous to project where 2023 picks will end up this far out…if Davis blows up this year this will be a good deal as it lessens the wait.
Yeah, I’m in a complete rebuild - rather than kicking the can I see it as getting more for my trade dollar when I blew up my team. All my elite WRs were aging out at 27 & up, and I felt like the 2021 draft depleted a lot of talent from college football. By comparison, I really like what’s coming in 2023. Obviously things can change - injury, players rise & fall, etc. But 2023 still feels deeper to me, and I’m likely to have the 1.01 as a result of this deal, plus 4 other 1sts ive managed to accumulate (and the 2.01 or 2.02)

Definitely agree that if Davis hits it helps more in the short term. But since my destiny is in my hands. I’m hoping to lose a lot between now and the 2023. draft. 😉

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I agree there could be a path to more usage but nothing so far shows he is ascending based on actual performance.

I wonder if he didn't have a one off playoff game where everything fell perfectly would anybody think he is "ascending".  I am not saying to discount the game but one game doesn't change the fact that this season was a bit worse than his rookie season.

ETA:  I know you have a different opinion and that's fine.  There is a difference between speculating that his usage may increase and having it actually increase from year 1 to year 2.  I agree he should be in a better positiin next year but I disagree that he has shown an ascension to date.
I obtained him long before that, and at the time I loved his prospects considering his high TD rate as a 21 year old rookie. I felt he had opportunity coming then, but then they went out and got a mostly ineffective Emmanuel Sanders. 

I agree that game likely changed the perception of him as being on the rise, but if you look at 2021, he had a few games where he popped. Every time he was targeted more than 2 times he seemed to do well. And considering his limited number of starts, a pattern starts to emerge.

We can definitely have our own opinions on him, but 18 TDs before he turns 23 isn’t really opinion-based. 

 

menobrown

Footballguy
Not involved but saw this trade which made no sense go down other day in FFPC:

Team A was the second worst team in the league last year on points, third worst in VP's.

Team B is b2b league winner.

They swapped out first and second round picks in the 2023 draft so Team A,  the bad team, could acquire soon to be 31 year old FA Cordarelle Patterson.

 

Boston

Footballguy
Not involved but saw this trade which made no sense go down other day in FFPC:

Team A was the second worst team in the league last year on points, third worst in VP's.

Team B is b2b league winner.

They swapped out first and second round picks in the 2023 draft so Team A,  the bad team, could acquire soon to be 31 year old FA Cordarelle Patterson.


You don't get bad by making good trades.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Not involved but saw this trade which made no sense go down other day in FFPC:

Team A was the second worst team in the league last year on points, third worst in VP's.

Team B is b2b league winner.

They swapped out first and second round picks in the 2023 draft so Team A,  the bad team, could acquire soon to be 31 year old FA Cordarelle Patterson.
This is either 

1. two teams scheming to keep the B2B winner winning 

or

2. the reason why one of them is a winner & one of them a loser with a bad team. 

 

barackdhouse

Footballguy
FFPC 1QB

I gave 1.08, 2023 2nd (probably early - this team of mine is a total rebuild)
I got Waller

Dude insta accepted so although I feel this is cheap it looks like I could have had for less. Oh well I love it.

 
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barackdhouse

Footballguy
Why go after Waller in a rebuild?
It is FFPC and I have a ton of draft capital and some other young upside building blocks. It is entirely possible I will be competitive this year and I personally think Waller will remain elite for at least another 2 years, which is as far ahead as I am really ever concerned with anyway. I am simply not going to find another difference making TE for cheaper than this unless I find some rookie gem like Kittle in the 4th (yes I did roster him thru cuts) or some waiver darling inseason. I'd rather pay a small price now for a guy that is being sold way too cheap IMO than hope I find a difference maker somewhere/somehow else. If you don't think he is a difference maker then I suppose we would have to agree to disagree.

TLDR it is a rebuilder but the process didn't start today. The seller sold way too low. Even if I don't compete with Waller I might be able to flip for more. 1.08 may not be a great pick this year, and I hold 1.02, 1.07, 1.11, 1.12, 2.03 and 2.08. I am a little shocked dude didn't haggle. I would have paid more. But as I said it looks like I could have paid less.

 
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InDitkaWeTrust

Footballguy
I get your argument.  You are a Davis believer.  I am not as much but he does have upside.  Diggs still there and any team I have Davis wouldn't be a starter and probably isn't going to become that any time soon anyways so I'd rather take the 1st and swing for the fences as I don't believe Davis is a swing.  He will never be a WR1 on a fantasy team.  Comes down to how much you value picks and any WR (many of them available) that isn't even a WR2 right now is probably not worth a 1st in a deep draft.

Upside is king though and I have been guilty of holding a player I like and see talent in because of what I think they can become.  Nothing wrong with your thinking.  We just vary in our beliefs on Davis (maybe 1st rounders too).  I like to take shots in the 1st considering I got Jaylen Waddle and Justin Jefferson at 8 the last 2 years, give me that chance over Gabe Davis all day.
**Cough** Corey Davis **Cough**

I held onto that dude WAY longer than I should have because of the massive potential!

 

JohnnyU

Footballguy
barackdhouse said:
It is FFPC and I have a ton of draft capital and some other young upside building blocks. It is entirely possible I will be competitive this year and I personally think Waller will remain elite for at least another 2 years, which is as far ahead as I am really ever concerned with anyway. I am simply not going to find another difference making TE for cheaper than this unless I find some rookie gem like Kittle in the 4th (yes I did roster him thru cuts) or some waiver darling inseason. I'd rather pay a small price now for a guy that is being sold way too cheap IMO than hope I find a difference maker somewhere/somehow else. If you don't think he is a difference maker then I suppose we would have to agree to disagree.

TLDR it is a rebuilder but the process didn't start today. The seller sold way too low. Even if I don't compete with Waller I might be able to flip for more. 1.08 may not be a great pick this year, and I hold 1.02, 1.07, 1.11, 1.12, 2.03 and 2.08. I am a little shocked dude didn't haggle. I would have paid more. But as I said it looks like I could have paid less.
I wouldn’t call what you paid (1.08 and an early 2nd) cheap.  Especially for a team in so-called rebuild mode.

 
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rockaction

Footballguy
barackdhouse said:
But as I said it looks like I could have paid less.
I think a lot of people have what he did without Gruden (granted, a lot of that was injury) baked into his price. I don't know what to think about your deal. I'm always more interested in hearing your reasoning anyway, and you do have a ton of draft capital. I just wonder if the 2023 second wouldn't have been more worth holding onto than this year's 2.08. 

 
I am not so sure why you think he is ascending.   If you compare numbers from this year and last year he is either stagnant or had a bit of a regression.  

I don't mind taking a chance on the guy but to say he is ascending is a bit premature based on what he has actually done.  
I'd take a 1st for him personally and any 2 1sts, I'd jump on but I think I'd agree that Davis is an ascending talent.  His numbers may not have shown it but his path to production should be easier next year.  Also, he isn't as good as that playoff game showed but that will get him some trust from Allen and the coaches which will help him have better numbers moving forward too. 

I'm on your side with Davis but I understand why some people could be high on him and not sure I'd call it premature as we have seen his talent show at times and no way Sanders returns.

 
Gave:

Dalvin Cook

Alexander Mattison

2022 1st Rd Pick (1.04)

Received:

D’Andre Swift

Trey Lance

A couple things of note: this is an orphan devy team that I took over. Dalvin is a stud, when healthy, and he will be turning 27 in August while Swift, who also has injury issues, just turned 23 in January. The QB pool is completely dry in this league. Before acquiring Lance my group consisted of Tannehill, Heinicke, and Mills. 
I don't play Devy but non-SF this was a big time overpay.  I don't disagree with your take on Cook/Swift at all but Lance went like 1.12 in my rookie draft last year so 1.4 plus the difference from Cook above Swift, and Mattison who is one of the best cuffs in the league was way too much.  I'm a Niner fan so I hope this works out for you as that means Lance is a stud.  Feels like you should have got like a 2nd back in this deal to me.

 
menobrown said:
Not involved but saw this trade which made no sense go down other day in FFPC:

Team A was the second worst team in the league last year on points, third worst in VP's.

Team B is b2b league winner.

They swapped out first and second round picks in the 2023 draft so Team A,  the bad team, could acquire soon to be 31 year old FA Cordarelle Patterson.
This is just terrible.  Patterson hasn't done anything in his other 7-8 years in the league before this year and no way he does this again.  To swap 1sts and 2nds just is why that team will be terrible for years to come.

 

Gally

Footballguy
I'd take a 1st for him personally and any 2 1sts, I'd jump on but I think I'd agree that Davis is an ascending talent.  His numbers may not have shown it but his path to production should be easier next year.  Also, he isn't as good as that playoff game showed but that will get him some trust from Allen and the coaches which will help him have better numbers moving forward too. 

I'm on your side with Davis but I understand why some people could be high on him and not sure I'd call it premature as we have seen his talent show at times and no way Sanders returns.
I think there is a difference between being high on him and saying he is ascending.  For me in order to be considered "ascending" he has to actually show progress and improvement that he has started  ascending.  I expected a much better year this year after his rookie season and it just didn't happen (even when Sanders was injured).    His season was basically the same as his rookie season.   

He is the kind of guy I would try and get on the cheap up to fair value.  Right now (because of that playoff game) his price is through the roof and therefore isn't likely to be a guy I acquire.  In places I have him I wouldn't be giving him away or selling low either.  I would definitely be holding.  

 

Gally

Footballguy
In one of my leagues a guy was popping off how terrible my team was and all kinds of cocky talk going into last off season.  HIs team was very top heavy with no depth and he always seems to screw things up according to his track record so I offered up a bet.  

I sent him an offer of my 1st rounder for his 1st rounder as a bet.  Essentially if my team finishes better then I get a better pick and vice versa.  It's a great put your money where you mouth is bet for a dynasty league where the picks are based on your finish.  

He was in the cellar most of the year and I was battling for a top 3-4 spot so it looked like I was going to end up with pick 1.01.  It didn't turn out quite that good but I ended up getting pick 1.03 for pick 1.07.  He won the last game of the season to drop him out of the worst record and I lost the last game to drop me from 3rd to 5th.  Could have been better but still a plus.

All this to say it's a great way to talk smack in your league if you are in that situation and as an added bonus it helped prevent some tanking as the other guy had no reason to lose and every reason to keep winning.  

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I think there is a difference between being high on him and saying he is ascending.  For me in order to be considered "ascending" he has to actually show progress and improvement that he has started  ascending.  I expected a much better year this year after his rookie season and it just didn't happen (even when Sanders was injured).    His season was basically the same as his rookie season. 
Why would you expect a much better year after the Bills signed Sanders, thus relegating Davis to a 4th WR role? 

I expected pretty much exactly what he did this year considering his limited opportunities. That said, I continued to be impressed by his prolific scoring/nose for the end zone. 

After this season he had 18 TDs before the age of 23. So it’s not like he stopped doing the things that made him interesting in 2020. You suggest he regressed but I’m just seeing less opportunity given the Bills lust for Sanders & lack of opportunity. I’m just not sure how you can “ding” Davis for that. 🤔 

He is the kind of guy I would try and get on the cheap up to fair value.  Right now (because of that playoff game) his price is through the roof and therefore isn't likely to be a guy I acquire.  In places I have him I wouldn't be giving him away or selling low either.  I would definitely be holding.  
The time to get him on the cheap was before the 2020 season. After the 2020 season he was still affordable, if you could work him into a package deal (as I did).

Currently you’d have to pay for him. How much is in the eye of the seller.

But there may still be a short window where he could be profitable, before it’s official that Sanders is gone, and maybe after the NFL draft if/when they take a WR. Based on the posts I’ve seen in here, there’s going to be some doom and gloom projections, despite the fact that the Bills need a WR regardless. And if Davis is indeed in line for a greater target share as the WR2 in 2022, then that window might be the last buy-low opportunity. 

Still not gonna be a bargain after that playoff run. Can’t put that genie back in the bottle. 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
In one of my leagues a guy was popping off how terrible my team was and all kinds of cocky talk going into last off season.  HIs team was very top heavy with no depth and he always seems to screw things up according to his track record so I offered up a bet.  

I sent him an offer of my 1st rounder for his 1st rounder as a bet.  Essentially if my team finishes better then I get a better pick and vice versa.  It's a great put your money where you mouth is bet for a dynasty league where the picks are based on your finish.  

He was in the cellar most of the year and I was battling for a top 3-4 spot so it looked like I was going to end up with pick 1.01.  It didn't turn out quite that good but I ended up getting pick 1.03 for pick 1.07.  He won the last game of the season to drop him out of the worst record and I lost the last game to drop me from 3rd to 5th.  Could have been better but still a plus.

All this to say it's a great way to talk smack in your league if you are in that situation and as an added bonus it helped prevent some tanking as the other guy had no reason to lose and every reason to keep winning.  
I love it. Gratz. Sounds like something out of The League, like when Ruxin was able to set his opponent’s lineup.

:lol:  

 

Gally

Footballguy
Why would you expect a much better year after the Bills signed Sanders, thus relegating Davis to a 4th WR role? 
Because I thought Sanders was done and Davis was better than him.  The fact it didn't play out that way with play time gives me some pause on what Buffalo thinks of Davis.  It's why I don't see him as ascending (yet).  This year will definitely be the indicator which is why that 4 TD game was a problem for acquiring him for less.  Without that game most owners would likely be down on him if they just look at the surface (no progress from year 1 to year 2) but that primetime performance gives the recency bias that many look at too much.  

 

farfromforgotten

Footballguy
I don't play Devy but non-SF this was a big time overpay.  I don't disagree with your take on Cook/Swift at all but Lance went like 1.12 in my rookie draft last year so 1.4 plus the difference from Cook above Swift, and Mattison who is one of the best cuffs in the league was way too much.  I'm a Niner fan so I hope this works out for you as that means Lance is a stud.  Feels like you should have got like a 2nd back in this deal to me.
Perhaps. I didn’t check any sites before offering the trade but the majority of dynasty ones have Lance as a top 8 QB and Swift as a top 5 RB, with several of them ranking him at #2 only behind Taylor. I don’t know if I agree with all of that but that’s what I’ve seen. Cook typically ranks around 10. One of them has a “Dynasty Trade Calculator” (take that for what it’s worth) and when I plugged all of the pieces into it it said I gave up 113 pts of trade value and received 107 back. I’ll take that and it has to be considered, as I mentioned before, my QBs were Mills, Tannehill, and Heinicke with nothing available in the FA pool. I feel like I’m getting a jump start on building up this orphan with the following pieces in place now:

Lance

Swift, Etienne, Jacobs, Spiller

Chase, Dio Johnson, Aiyuk, Kirk

Fant

A lot of this will come down to how well Lance pans out but hey at least I didn’t spend 3 1st rounders to find out, right? 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Because I thought Sanders was done and Davis was better than him.  The fact it didn't play out that way with play time gives me some pause on what Buffalo thinks of Davis.  It's why I don't see him as ascending (yet).  This year will definitely be the indicator which is why that 4 TD game was a problem for acquiring him for less.  Without that game most owners would likely be down on him if they just look at the surface (no progress from year 1 to year 2) but that primetime performance gives the recency bias that many look at too much.  
Yeah, I was still high on him before that epic game. He had a nice little run when Sanders got hurt, scored a bunch, and even scored in the 1st playoff game. 

I'm not sure owners would have been down on him without the 4 TD game, but I completely agree that game did not help bargain hunters at all. lol 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Got the itch while looking at potential 2023 targets, my target year for the rebuild. Superflex, PPR, no K or D/ST. 6 pt all TDs. 

I already had a top 2 pick (control my own destiny, but there's one other rebuilding team) and I would really love to come away from 2023 with the top QB & RB, or possibly even 2 QBs of my 5x 1sts. 

My other 4 first round picks were likely to be mid (4-6), mid (6-8), late (7-9) and late (9-11)

Threw up a couple of offers, this was their counter. 

I gave Derek Carr, Kendrick Bourne, Cedrick Wilson, 2023 mid-1st pick, 2023 mid-3rd  and 2022 4.02

I received: Aman-Ra St. Brown, 2023 top 2 pick. 

So I should now be a lock for picks 1.01 & 1.02 in the 2023 draft, while still having 3 other 1st, 2x 2nds, 1x 3rd, 2 4ths and 5x 5ths

Plus I get a WR I like, who may or may not not be a flash in the pan but should be useful. I know he won't be as good as he was down the stretch without Hock & Swift, but IMO they won't stop throwing to him now that they know what he can be. 

TL:DR, traded journeyman Carr & 2 WRs I didn't need + a couple of picks to move one of my mid firsts from 6-8 up to a top 2 pick.  Definitely risky, as now my QB stable consists of a very shaky list of Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, Tyler Huntley & Kellen Mond.  :unsure:   On the upside, having to start Wilson/Jones every week will likely help me to lose more games this year. 

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
I think there is a difference between being high on him and saying he is ascending.  For me in order to be considered "ascending" he has to actually show progress and improvement that he has started  ascending.  I expected a much better year this year after his rookie season and it just didn't happen (even when Sanders was injured).    His season was basically the same as his rookie season.   

He is the kind of guy I would try and get on the cheap up to fair value.  Right now (because of that playoff game) his price is through the roof and therefore isn't likely to be a guy I acquire.  In places I have him I wouldn't be giving him away or selling low either.  I would definitely be holding.  
Do the playoffs not count or something?  I realize they dont count for our magical fantasy seasons......but they matter.

 

Gally

Footballguy
Got the itch while looking at potential 2023 targets, my target year for the rebuild. Superflex, PPR, no K or D/ST. 6 pt all TDs. 

I already had a top 2 pick (control my own destiny, but there's one other rebuilding team) and I would really love to come away from 2023 with the top QB & RB, or possibly even 2 QBs of my 5x 1sts. 

My other 4 first round picks were likely to be mid (4-6), mid (6-8), late (7-9) and late (9-11)

Threw up a couple of offers, this was their counter. 

I gave Derek Carr, Kendrick Bourne, Cedrick Wilson, 2023 mid-1st pick, 2023 mid-3rd  and 2022 4.02

I received: Aman-Ra St. Brown, 2023 top 2 pick. 

So I should now be a lock for picks 1.01 & 1.02 in the 2023 draft, while still having 3 other 1st, 2x 2nds, 1x 3rd, 2 4ths and 5x 5ths

Plus I get a WR I like, who may or may not not be a flash in the pan but should be useful. I know he won't be as good as he was down the stretch without Hock & Swift, but IMO they won't stop throwing to him now that they know what he can be. 

TL:DR, traded journeyman Carr & 2 WRs I didn't need + a couple of picks to move one of my mid firsts from 6-8 up to a top 2 pick.  Definitely risky, as now my QB stable consists of a very shaky list of Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, Tyler Huntley & Kellen Mond.  :unsure:   On the upside, having to start Wilson/Jones every week will likely help me to lose more games this year. 
I am not a fan of this trade but I don't think Top Ramen St Ramen is anything more than a WR2/3 for fantasy purposes once the dust settles and everyone is back.   You are going to have a hard time getting QB's in SF as those are tough commodities to come back from if you don't have any.  

Also, assuming that will be be a top 2 pick in 2023 is a big risk.  FF is a lot of luck and if that guy happens to have everything fall into place you may end up looking at a mid to late pick and then this is even worse.  Seems like a trade just to make a trade that has too much risk for me.  

 

Gally

Footballguy
Do the playoffs not count or something?  I realize they dont count for our magical fantasy seasons......but they matter.
They count but it's one game.  I put more stock into a full season worth of work.  It was also pretty bad defense on most of those plays.  

Again, I like Davis quite a bit and would like to acquire him but because of that single game many owners are putting his price way out of line to his actual production.  

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Do the playoffs not count or something?  I realize they dont count for our magical fantasy seasons......but they matter.
Good point, but I think @Gally is just looking at the 1 playoff game as an extreme outlier, where he put up a 10/200+/4 game. 

And I agree, that game changed a lot of perceptions both for owners & interested shoppers. 

So in discussing his value I'm also inclined to dismiss that game a bit as well. I'm certainly excited about it as an owner, but it's too freakish to really change valuation of the player.  All it really does it make it harder to buy Davis. 

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
They count but it's one game.  I put more stock into a full season worth of work.  It was also pretty bad defense on most of those plays.  

Again, I like Davis quite a bit and would like to acquire him but because of that single game many owners are putting his price way out of line to his actual production.  
Nobody expects huge games like that.  What I personally expect moving forward is a heck of a lot more playing time and opportunity.

His overall numbers were not high, but his efficiency was good.  

I have mentioned this before, and will say it again......he is 22 right now.  He is younger than Waddle and Smith.........he is going to get opportunity in 2023 barring major injury or an out of nowhere huge FA signing/trade/1st round WR.

 
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Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I am not a fan of this trade but I don't think Top Ramen St Ramen is anything more than a WR2/3 for fantasy purposes once the dust settles and everyone is back.   You are going to have a hard time getting QB's in SF as those are tough commodities to come back from if you don't have any.  
Carr is 30, and by the time I need him, he'll be 32. He's never been more than a SF QB2 and maybe a backup in single QB leagues. I actually think he might be better with a more complete offense, but then I've said that about him for years & the Raiders simply haven't been able to put it all together.  I'll certainly have an easier time getting a QB with the 1.01 & 1.02 picks in 2023.  

Also, assuming that will be be a top 2 pick in 2023 is a big risk.  FF is a lot of luck and if that guy happens to have everything fall into place you may end up looking at a mid to late pick and then this is even worse.  Seems like a trade just to make a trade that has too much risk for me.  
In this case it's a fairly safe assumption. This league has 10 competitive teams, one complete blow it up rebuild (me) and one team that's worse (I won 4 games, they won 2 in 2021). 

That team is not hugely improved by this deal, and if they are, all it does is help ensure that my pick is the 1.01 if they manage to win more than me for having Carr. 

It's actually a very safe bet that I will now have the 1.01 & 1.02.

I'm not disagreeing there's risk. I do disagree it was a deal just to make a deal. I want the top 2 picks. That's worth the risk for what I gave up. Shopping around my league, no one was gonna give me more than a 2nd for Carr, and I've still got 15 picks in the 2023 draft. I own 6 of the top 13 if my own pick is 1.01, and 6/14 if it's 1.02

Have I mentioned I'm a huge fan of the talent coming in 2023? I am. 

As for St Brown, he was a balancing piece - and I had him in my redraft league last year & he was a beast down the stretch. I see him as a top 25 WR, certainly PPR flex-worthy. 

 
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Perhaps. I didn’t check any sites before offering the trade but the majority of dynasty ones have Lance as a top 8 QB and Swift as a top 5 RB, with several of them ranking him at #2 only behind Taylor. I don’t know if I agree with all of that but that’s what I’ve seen. Cook typically ranks around 10. One of them has a “Dynasty Trade Calculator” (take that for what it’s worth) and when I plugged all of the pieces into it it said I gave up 113 pts of trade value and received 107 back. I’ll take that and it has to be considered, as I mentioned before, my QBs were Mills, Tannehill, and Heinicke with nothing available in the FA pool. I feel like I’m getting a jump start on building up this orphan with the following pieces in place now:

Lance

Swift, Etienne, Jacobs, Spiller

Chase, Dio Johnson, Aiyuk, Kirk

Fant

A lot of this will come down to how well Lance pans out but hey at least I didn’t spend 3 1st rounders to find out, right? 
You are right there.  My Niners definitely overpaid way worse than you did and I think getting out of Cook for a younger player isn't a bad decision.  Swift is injury prone and still a Lion so no way I put him anywhere near the #2 Dynasty RB but I know some sites are.

 

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