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***OFFICIAL*** FFA MLB Draft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Capella
- Start date
I don't see how the standings getting lost have to do with you not caring. Do you not care because you only attach importance to other people's perceptions of your team vis-a-vis the standings? In that case, your critique makes sense. If that's not the case, then it migh tbe better to say that you don't feel that your team's general "worth" is represented by statistics, or at least those stats which would be entered into a simulation, or those of your players' third-best years. The stats being comparatively stratified don't affect the team comparisons.
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larry_boy_44
Footballguy
let's wait 'til GWB does his sim (or is Winner GWB???)..and that's why this thing is so ####### out of whack.It simmed a total of like 1700 someting HR for 16 teams, so that's like 100something a team... lots of guys had 0 or 2, because we drafted tons of deadballers. so the rest were essentially divvied up among the guys that hit lots of HRs, bonds among them. i think the prevalence of deadballers that don't hit HRs was also part of why the big hitters' (but not everyone's) HR #s were so big in the other sim, as well.wait... Bonds hit SEVENTY THREE HOME RUNS in the dead ball era???am I missing something here?? I thought the record for HRs in a year was like 15 when that era ended...I have to callon these stats: # TOP 10 HR HR1 B. Bonds (HAR) 732 B. Ruth (LAS) 503 S. Sosa (DB) 474 J. Mize (KOY) 445 G. Sheffield (PIC) 436 M. Mantle (UCO) 397 J. Thome (NIP) 377 M. Piazza (HAR) 377 R. Kiner (UCO) 3710 L. Walker (FUN) 36 no way do that many guys hit more HRs than whole TEAMS did in the deadball era if this was really a deadball era sim...
Capella
Footballguy
I guess what I'm saying is, the stats you have shown me from both eras aren't very realistic, so I don't put too much cred into the sim as a whole.Based on that sim alone, is my team standing up to the others? Apparently not. Do I think it's noteworthy? Probably no more so than WIS or any other type of system that tries to do this sort of thing. But the numbers you showed me tonight were particularly poor. Which caused me to brush the thing off. Those numbers are so out of whack that I can't buy into it.Just one man's opinion. Doesn't mean I think my team should be 110-52, just means I think the thing isn't worth a whole lot.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
So 80 ####### thousand pages later, we come to find, THIS THING SUCKS! :rotflmao: I love it.Doesn't mean I think my team should be 110-52, just means I think the thing isn't worth a whole lot.
Not particularly. Number of HRs doesn't seem to correlate with division rank. Harrier and Pickles both hit 205 but ended up in very different places. You had the most HR in your division by far.Also, interestingly, though the sim estimated 1700 or so HR before the season started, for a deadball era league, the power of the hitters seems to have been so great that the leaguewide HR total was 2535--significantly higher.
Team HR, deadball era sim:
Division 1
Harrier 205
funkley 179
Larryboy 117
Doug B 149
Division 2
bogart 135
Spartans 117
Politician Spock 141
Pickles 205
Division 3
Sammy3469 170
lastresort 178
UCONN 181
Koya 195
Division 4
pumpnick 130
Kraft 112
Nipsey 144
Capella 177
Team records, deadball era sim:
Division 1
Harrier 95-67
funkley 79-83
Larryboy 78-84
Doug B 68-94
Division 2
bogart 92-70
Spartans 91-71
Politician Spock 85-77
Pickles 79-83
Division 3
Sammy3469 86-76
lastresort 81-81
UCONN 78-84
Koya 77-85
Division 4
pumpnick 90-72
Kraft 82-80
Nipsey 78-84
Capella 57-105
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Funkley
Collar: Up
:rotflmao: Thanks, coffee stains on my shirt now.Larry, more ab's = more home runs *only* if you think Bonds will continue to hit HOF and all star pitching at the same rate he hits average and bad pitching. He won't. If he's lucky, amazingly lucky, he'll match his home run total with more ab's in a league with talent like this. I agree with you that pitchers are more likely to challenge hitters in our league but that isn't really good news for hitters considering the pitchers involved.yes larry, less walks..BUT HE WOULD BE FACING MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH BETTER PITCHINGHow is this ####ing idiot leading his conference?he would get less walks against those all-time great pitchers than against the crappy pitchers he faces now...he'd pro'lly got ZERO IBBs and he'd pro'lly get a lot less walks, too, 'cuz the all-time greats aren't gonna give up as many as the modern guys will...by the way, Bonds gets walked a lot now because he is a) really really good b) the pitching is really, really bad and c) he has Pedro Feliz behind him in the lineup.Only option a) would still exist here in the sim, larry.I think you're losing your mind larry.I could beat this statement 8 ways till next week, but I'll just say that if you think Bonds is going to hit 12 more homers in a season than he ever did before while facing the likes of Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Lefty Grove, and just about every other HOF pitcher, as opposed to the modern days guys he gets on a daily basis like Steve Traschel, Mike Myers and Tim Wakefield (oops) then you are absolutely out of your mind.
oso diablo
Footballguy
Your team score a mere one run against my two pitchers in this game:Hudson, 3rd yearLowe, 4th year3 RBIs from Chavez, 4th year.Benched top 3 draft picks (Pujols, Posada, and Giambi)
Giving up 20 runs"Ouch"Grimes is a stud so far.
Koya
Footballguy
Soooo funny. I was typing a response to larry... using pretty much the same pitchers in my example (I added in Randy Johnson too) and then realized, why am I even bothering.Close the winder and then saw your reply.I think you're losing your mind larry.I could beat this statement 8 ways till next week, but I'll just say that if you think Bonds is going to hit 12 more homers in a season than he ever did before while facing the likes of Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Lefty Grove, and just about every other HOF pitcher, as opposed to the modern days guys he gets on a daily basis like Steve Traschel, Mike Myers and Tim Wakefield (oops
Politician Spock
Footballguy
I have to vote for OOTP too. I downloaded after GWB talked about it. There are so many different ways the program can be used. For $19.95 its a steal for a baseball fan. As for Barry's 85 homers, there is a league setting for how many times an event should occur somewhere in the league throughout the year during the sim. That is to say if Barry only hit 60 home runs, 25 home runs would have been hit elsewhere in the league by someone else sometime during the season. Many of the stats are controlled by a setting like this: hits, walks, strikeouts, doubles, triples. How good the player is compared to the rest of the players determines who has a greater chance of achieving the event. The setting can be raised or lowered by choosing an era (modern, deadball, etc...) or set manually. The default is modern, which in my opinion produces a lot of offense. The league BA is usually around .300 with the modern setting. I think they set that as the default as a simulation that produces a lot of offense by default sells more copies (in other words it's a marketing thing). To be more realistic the setting needs to be changed to produce less offense.With what exactly? You don't have to like it for it to be the actual result.You really should buy OOTP. It's pretty cool.I disagree.Yes.85 homers?Dude, it's real. Stop.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
Politician Spock
Footballguy
Okay, the problem is possibly that those default settings are for 30 team leagues, not 16 team leagues. This would also explain why some pitchers were giving up 400+ hits.It simmed a total of like 1700 someting HR for 16 teams, so that's like 100something a team... lots of guys had 0 or 2, because we drafted tons of deadballers. so the rest were essentially divvied up among the guys that hit lots of HRs, bonds among them. i think the prevalence of deadballers that don't hit HRs was also part of why the big hitters' (but not everyone's) HR #s were so big in the other sim, as well.wait... Bonds hit SEVENTY THREE HOME RUNS in the dead ball era???am I missing something here?? I thought the record for HRs in a year was like 15 when that era ended...I have to call
Politician Spock
Footballguy
Messersmith should not be in my rotation. I use a four man rotation of Koufax, Ryan, Carlton, and Bunning. Although Ryan is leaving the door open for Messersmith to step in.
Koya
Footballguy
I thought GWB said that OOTP was kind of useless because it does not equalize stats era to era?You can set the sim on different eras, but it will not equate Sam Crawfords 16 HR season (which was like 73 back in the day) to Bond's efforts. I recall something about having to load in "equalized" stats which were found on some webpage, but would take years to enter manually.not sure at all about this but that is what I heard.Either way, any more than 20 HRs in the deadball era is silly. Any more than 30 is stupid.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
Any algorithm used to equalize players from era to era would be highly subjective. There would be much disagreement as to what players would do better and what players would do worse if they played in a different era. WIS is just as useless as OOTP, unless you think WIS has found a great way of equalizing the players. If you do, why?
larry_boy_44
Footballguy
all I was saying is the 85 homers wasn't as outrageous as it was being said...it seemed like it was thought that he should have been hitting 50... and my point was that if you add 100 ABs, he can go from 1 HR ever 6 ABs to 1 HR ever 8 ABs, and he doesn't loose any home runs at all...So, 85 was off... but only by 10-15... not 25-30...:rotflmao: Thanks, coffee stains on my shirt now.Larry, more ab's = more home runs *only* if you think Bonds will continue to hit HOF and all star pitching at the same rate he hits average and bad pitching. He won't. If he's lucky, amazingly lucky, he'll match his home run total with more ab's in a league with talent like this. I agree with you that pitchers are more likely to challenge hitters in our league but that isn't really good news for hitters considering the pitchers involved.yes larry, less walks..BUT HE WOULD BE FACING MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH BETTER PITCHINGHow is this ####ing idiot leading his conference?he would get less walks against those all-time great pitchers than against the crappy pitchers he faces now...he'd pro'lly got ZERO IBBs and he'd pro'lly get a lot less walks, too, 'cuz the all-time greats aren't gonna give up as many as the modern guys will...by the way, Bonds gets walked a lot now because he is a) really really good b) the pitching is really, really bad and c) he has Pedro Feliz behind him in the lineup.Only option a) would still exist here in the sim, larry.I think you're losing your mind larry.I could beat this statement 8 ways till next week, but I'll just say that if you think Bonds is going to hit 12 more homers in a season than he ever did before while facing the likes of Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Lefty Grove, and just about every other HOF pitcher, as opposed to the modern days guys he gets on a daily basis like Steve Traschel, Mike Myers and Tim Wakefield (oops
larry_boy_44
Footballguy
he had Moises Alou starting for me...Alou is like my 4 or 5 OF, so I think he was just guessing at starters and such...
Politician Spock
Footballguy
FYI, Babe Ruth is on pace to hit 94 HR's in our WIS simulation.all I was saying is the 85 homers wasn't as outrageous as it was being said...it seemed like it was thought that he should have been hitting 50... and my point was that if you add 100 ABs, he can go from 1 HR ever 6 ABs to 1 HR ever 8 ABs, and he doesn't loose any home runs at all...So, 85 was off... but only by 10-15... not 25-30...:rotflmao: Thanks, coffee stains on my shirt now.Larry, more ab's = more home runs *only* if you think Bonds will continue to hit HOF and all star pitching at the same rate he hits average and bad pitching. He won't. If he's lucky, amazingly lucky, he'll match his home run total with more ab's in a league with talent like this. I agree with you that pitchers are more likely to challenge hitters in our league but that isn't really good news for hitters considering the pitchers involved.yes larry, less walks..BUT HE WOULD BE FACING MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH BETTER PITCHINGHow is this ####ing idiot leading his conference?he would get less walks against those all-time great pitchers than against the crappy pitchers he faces now...he'd pro'lly got ZERO IBBs and he'd pro'lly get a lot less walks, too, 'cuz the all-time greats aren't gonna give up as many as the modern guys will...by the way, Bonds gets walked a lot now because he is a) really really good b) the pitching is really, really bad and c) he has Pedro Feliz behind him in the lineup.Only option a) would still exist here in the sim, larry.I think you're losing your mind larry.I could beat this statement 8 ways till next week, but I'll just say that if you think Bonds is going to hit 12 more homers in a season than he ever did before while facing the likes of Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Lefty Grove, and just about every other HOF pitcher, as opposed to the modern days guys he gets on a daily basis like Steve Traschel, Mike Myers and Tim Wakefield (oops
Koya
Footballguy
I am just passing on what someone else mentioned about OOTP - something about them not having an algorithm for equalization. That you can take a players stats (take Eddie Murray in a 30 HR year) and run that in a deadball era (so maybe Eddie would have less HRs, theoretically) or in todays era (theoretically he should have more than 30, maybe 45) - however, Eddie Murray will always have more home runs than say Sam Crawford (one of the top HR hitters of the deadball era but never had more than 16 in a season) and always have less than todays modern players.Basically, there is no algorithm to equalize between different players from different eras.That was my understanding of what GWB asked. Because I asked him when we were doing the OOTP and he said it was useless because of this fact.Obviously a sim is only as good as its algorith. I dont think WIS is necessarily the greatest but it seems to have something behind the scenes working. I also believe WIS uses algorithms based on each individual season, for equalizations sake. So, if 1982 was an average year but 1983 had a bunch more HRs, those HR's in '83 would be weighted less than in '82.(again, just going off what I heard. I find it interesting to check out any sim)
Koya
Footballguy
In our sim, he might be doing that with 1/3 of his games against the Arks and Lebrons, so maybe 85 HRs in our sim wouldnt be so ridiculous. Those four awful teams are going to skew stats to no end.FYI, Babe Ruth is on pace to hit 94 HR's in our WIS simulation.all I was saying is the 85 homers wasn't as outrageous as it was being said...:rotflmao:yes larry, less walks..he would get less walks against those all-time great pitchers than against the crappy pitchers he faces now...by the way, Bonds gets walked a lot now because he is a) really really good b) the pitching is really, really bad and c) he has Pedro Feliz behind him in the lineup.I think you're losing your mind larry.
I could beat this statement 8 ways till next week, but I'll just say that if you think Bonds is going to hit 12 more homers in a season than he ever did before while facing the likes of Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Lefty Grove, and just about every other HOF pitcher, as opposed to the modern days guys he gets on a daily basis like Steve Traschel, Mike Myers and Tim Wakefield (oops
Only option a) would still exist here in the sim, larry.
he'd pro'lly got ZERO IBBs and he'd pro'lly get a lot less walks, too, 'cuz the all-time greats aren't gonna give up as many as the modern guys will...
BUT HE WOULD BE FACING MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH BETTER PITCHING
How is this ####ing idiot leading his conference?
Thanks, coffee stains on my shirt now.
Larry, more ab's = more home runs *only* if you think Bonds will continue to hit HOF and all star pitching at the same rate he hits average and bad pitching. He won't. If he's lucky, amazingly lucky, he'll match his home run total with more ab's in a league with talent like this. I agree with you that pitchers are more likely to challenge hitters in our league but that isn't really good news for hitters considering the pitchers involved.
it seemed like it was thought that he should have been hitting 50... and my point was that if you add 100 ABs, he can go from 1 HR ever 6 ABs to 1 HR ever 8 ABs, and he doesn't loose any home runs at all...
So, 85 was off... but only by 10-15... not 25-30...
It will be fair accross the board, but the stats will be terribly inflated in general, I would think.
larry_boy_44
Footballguy
GWB did get a database with the equalized stats, though, and he said he was putting it in and I thought it was almost done...I could be wrong though...
larry_boy_44
Footballguy
kind of like how all of our records will be above .500 since those 4 teams will pretty much only loose to eachother...In our sim, he might be doing that with 1/3 of his games against the Arks and Lebrons, so maybe 85 HRs in our sim wouldnt be so ridiculous. Those four awful teams are going to skew stats to no end.FYI, Babe Ruth is on pace to hit 94 HR's in our WIS simulation.all I was saying is the 85 homers wasn't as outrageous as it was being said...:rotflmao:yes larry, less walks..he would get less walks against those all-time great pitchers than against the crappy pitchers he faces now...by the way, Bonds gets walked a lot now because he is a) really really good b) the pitching is really, really bad and c) he has Pedro Feliz behind him in the lineup.I think you're losing your mind larry.
I could beat this statement 8 ways till next week, but I'll just say that if you think Bonds is going to hit 12 more homers in a season than he ever did before while facing the likes of Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Lefty Grove, and just about every other HOF pitcher, as opposed to the modern days guys he gets on a daily basis like Steve Traschel, Mike Myers and Tim Wakefield (oops
Only option a) would still exist here in the sim, larry.
he'd pro'lly got ZERO IBBs and he'd pro'lly get a lot less walks, too, 'cuz the all-time greats aren't gonna give up as many as the modern guys will...
BUT HE WOULD BE FACING MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH BETTER PITCHING
How is this ####ing idiot leading his conference?
Thanks, coffee stains on my shirt now.
Larry, more ab's = more home runs *only* if you think Bonds will continue to hit HOF and all star pitching at the same rate he hits average and bad pitching. He won't. If he's lucky, amazingly lucky, he'll match his home run total with more ab's in a league with talent like this. I agree with you that pitchers are more likely to challenge hitters in our league but that isn't really good news for hitters considering the pitchers involved.
it seemed like it was thought that he should have been hitting 50... and my point was that if you add 100 ABs, he can go from 1 HR ever 6 ABs to 1 HR ever 8 ABs, and he doesn't loose any home runs at all...
So, 85 was off... but only by 10-15... not 25-30...
It will be fair accross the board, but the stats will be terribly inflated in general, I would think.
all we have to do is stay close enough to .500 in our non-dummy team games so that those games will put us all at .500...
Sammy3469
Footballguy
I believe this is more or less correct. Whatif bases stats on only one season and how that player did within that season. It also tries to project that players stats across the whole year. So if Ruth was facing 1921 pitching he would put up his 1921 stats over the course of the year. So he should slow down at some point. Whatif is trying to simulate the hot and cold streaks players go on over the course of the year. BTW any stat program that sets a standard amount of HR for a league and then prorates that based on a 30 team league is FLAWED.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
Perhaps. However I still like OOTP a lot. WIS charged over $300 for the one simulation we are running, and we are running into issue after issue. To do it again without all the issues we've run into it'll cost us another $300. For $19.95 I can run simulations, and tweak and run it again ad infinitum.
larry_boy_44
Footballguy
you just wanna be able to tweak it 'til you win... :rotflmao:
Giant Wooden Badger
the Beav
The problem with OOTP isn't necessarily with the engine itself, at least not the sim part of it. The problem with it is with the way it assigns ratings.You have to use a normalize DB to get the ratings right. Those ratings are what drive the stats in the sim. If you just used a regular DB with actual stats, a guy like Bonds will get a really high power rating (like 150 or so) and a guy like Sam Crawford will get a really low one (like 20 or less).If you were to use a normalized DB, you'd end up with Bonds with a 150 power rating and Crawford with a 90+. That's what should be done before running the sim.I suspect that you'd still see too many HR in the Deadball Era if Bonds 85 HR are an indication. It sounds like even with the normalized DB, guys like Crawford would end up with 30 or 40 HR.There is a normalized DB at www.ootpdownloadcenter.com - done by Ankit.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
I could do that to. But I can see why those who finish last wouldn't appreciate the settings of the simulation when Bonds is hitting 85 homeruns. It does need to be tweaked and run again. The deadball setting simulation was even worse than the modern setting simulation. Point being, were only 19 games into our WIS simulation and we already have people with legitimate gripes with the way it was setup. Does everyone really want to fork out $12.95 again to run it again sans our mistakes regarding the "dummy" teams? If it was free, I'm sure everyone would.
larry_boy_44
Footballguy
I think we just need to make sure that when we do the *official* OOTP sims that we cut the # of HRs, etc. in half so that they aren't outrageous...
Koya
Footballguy
Although it is ridiculous in itself to have Bonds hitting 85 dings in the Deadball era, what most concerns me in any sim are the players statistical relationship to each other, in the sim.If bonds hits 120 HRs, but crawford hits 91, and Sosa hits 103 - at least they are in proportion. Obviously, ideal would be bonds hitting 60 in his best year and crawford/gavvy cravath types hitting say 45 or so in the same year. However I would rather everyone's stats are too high or too low, rather than some players in certain eras gain a strong advantage.It would be the same if you put out all the dead ball pitchers to a .70 ERA while Randy Johnson, Gibson, Koufax were around 2.50
Koya
Footballguy
It sounds like what we need most right now is a good fair equalized database. I agree that being able to run multiple sims on OOTP is fun. Then again, WIS is fun in its own right because you get to play each series and all.Hopefully after a full season we will have a better idea of how WIS works and if we do another season there, you by definiation wis-fish.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
Using their real stats this is the players OOTP ratings:Crawford
Contact: 82
Gap Power: 73
Home Run Power: 52
Running Speed: 77
Running Instincts: 69
Bonds
Contact: 81
Gap Power 76
Home Run Power 174
Running Speed: 64
Running Instincts: 72
What exactly is the problem with those ratings? They will make similar contact, hit to the gap just as frequently which will result in more doubles and triples for Crawford because of his running speed, but Bonds will hit way more home runs than Crawford.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
Why should Crawford hit 91 homeruns in any simulation?
Koya
Footballguy
Spock, since Crawford is on my team I know a bit about him. He was one of the top 2 pre Ruth Home Run hitters.While his HR's should not be on par with Ruth/Bonds, they should not be one third, either.If you take Ruths 60 hrs, even give bonds credit and equalize his 73 down to 65, then a Crawford should hit at least 1/3 and really at least 2/3's of that figure... 40+. Not 1/3 or 20 HRs.Obviously this is just one example and I only know it because I researched Crawford. Same can be said for Gavvy Cravath I would assume, as well (the other great deadball power hitter)
Koya
Footballguy
Well, in that example, the league leaders would have well over 100.I am judging off equalized stats and some judgement. I would think Crawford, as the example, would be worth about 1/2 on the low end, to 2/3 of the HR's of the league leaders. If the leaders hit 60, I would guess around 40-45 HRs. If the leaders hit 120 HRs (in the above example), I would look at 90.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
This is completely subjective. This is why any normalization algorithm a simulation uses will produce people who disgree with the results.
Koya
Footballguy
Subjective based upon objective algorithms. GWB I think (maybe someone else) posted a link that equalized stats era to era. It was much like baseball-reference.com except it provided the stats equalized to modern day stats.That is where I am getting the number 45 from, and that number seems to fit into the purley subjective measures out there. The number 45 was objective based on that sites algorithm, it is not "what I think" he would do.
Giant Wooden Badger
the Beav
Nothing necessarily but when guys like Larry Walker are hitting more HR than Aaron or Mays or whoever was stated above, it's a problem.I only entered 20 players or so before I quit. I don't believe that I got the same rating for Crawford that you did but it may have been similar. I just remember seeing guys like Cupid Childs with a HR Power rating of 4 while Bonds had 170+ or more.
Giant Wooden Badger
the Beav
It was a normalized DB I referenced and the season you're using for Crawford gave him 49 HR.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
So you are saying that everyone should agree that Crawford should hit 40 homeruns in a simulated season where Bonds and Ruth hit 60?Don't you see that it is a subjective regardless of how "objective" the algorithm is?There is no algorithm that will produce results where everyone in the end would say, "OK, that's realistic".
Sammy3469
Footballguy
Read the whatif post above. The whatif normalization program is based on evaluating each player in that given year and then predicting an average outcome (keep in mind this is an averge outcome per at-bat). So if Ruth played a whole league of deaballers his stats would be normalized down while the pitchers would put up worse numbers. If your don't agree with the way they normalize that's one thing, but to not agree to any normalization at all seems a tad myopic.BTW they are adjusting the program in March to allow more doubles and triples for some of the sluggers who had been getting singles (Mr. Ted Williams)
