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***OFFICIAL*** FFA MLB Draft (3 Viewers)

I think the reason OB% + Slugging % = OPS is simply 'cuz OB% is a part of slugging, but its a part that you can't tell automatically... its just another useless stat...BUT, it puts players on an even playing field since a guy who gets on base .400 will automatically have a slugging % of over .400... and that's assuming he got no extra base hits...a guy who gets 40 home runs in 160 at bats and that is it has a slugging of 1.000 but a OB% of .250... is he more valuable than the guy who has an OB% of .475 and a slugging % of .575?? I would say yes, since the first guys OPS is 1.250 and the second guys is 1.050... The home run every 4 at bats is MUCH more valuable than what ends up being a single every other at bat (with a double or triple or homer every long, long while...)
Honestly, the reason OPS = OBP + SLG is due to laziness. James has shown in short order that even the most rudimentary statistical analysis can reveal some interesting things. Of course he takes it to an extreme, IMO, reducing things to win shares which is only one number, but that's another matter. The problem with OPS is that it merges two dissimilar stats that have no business being merged. The 1.4 correction noted above comes about since SLG is an inherently larger value than OBP. I looked at the distribution of SLG for 2003 (don't ask why not 2004.. long story) for all players and found that most guys have values between .200 and .600, arbitrarily. As for OBP, the range is more like .200 and .400. The average SLG value for all players was about .375 (unweighted for ABs) whereas the average OBP was about .300. Using a simple ratio, we might use a 1.25 correction factor to bring the two stats into accordance with each other, but looking at the top end numbers as a guide, we might consider a value more like 1.5, close to what Neyer suggests.Either way, OPS as it's currently used doesn't really distiguish hitters unless they have very large OPS numbers. For example, Bonds' OPS in '04 was an astounding 1.422, the highest value in baseball history. His OPS number was 0.344 higher than #2 on the list which was Todd Helton. That's telling. Comparing guys with OPS numbers in the .800 range isn't going to tell you much about their productivity whatsoever.Like I said, I have another metric I'm using, and it seems to be a little more logical than OPS, even though I'm sort of a fan of players with big OPS numbers. The point is that OPS correlates well with productivity even if it's a flawed stat.
no offense to larry, but I'm pretty sure you're going to lose him here. :lol:
So, bored, I jump into this thread, start by reading Pickles' nerd side, when I come across Bella's reply, and let me tell you, I LAUGHED MY MUTHA####IN ### OFF AT THAT...out loud, baby... :rotflmao: :rotflmao: :rotflmao: "no offense"...yeah right. :rotflmao: :lol:
 
so how do you come up with a formula that combines those numbers and shows what type of hitter they are? I mean, isn't that sort of what OBP and SLG are supposed to do on a singular level? how do you combine all these factors to show what a player did through the year..like you mentioned with James, it almost seems like if you add anymore in, it's going to become too layered.what would you add? what would you take away?
Yeah, I'm not saying that any one number should be able to do that. The reason we try to produce composite stats like OPS is to simplify things. I was just pointing out that OPS is biased enough towards power guys so that you can make these kinds of distinctions without necessarily reverting back to the OBP and SLG numbers. I wouldn't propose to create a number that caputures differences. In fact, that's entirely the problem with the OPS stat. It's so skewed toward SLG that it's not very accurate in capturing a player's true worth. The idea behind something like OPS or win shares is to weight dissimilar players with a single number. That is, how can we determine how valuable Ichiro is versus Gary Sheffield if one is a singles hitter and the other is a power hitter. One would imagine that they are both similarly valuable, but how can we easily determine this without biasing towards the more popular stats like HRs?OPS tries to do this, but fails a bit, I think. James uses win shares which considers about a dozen different factors including defense, but I think this is probably a bit too complex. If we just stick with offense, there should be a nice way of measuring a player's productivity in a reasonably straightforward way. I'm omitting things like park effects, correcting for era (dead ball/live ball, etc.) for now just to keep things simple. In order to compare two hitters all other corrections aside, we should use someing like OPS, but without the inherent bias. I have an idea of how to do this which I think is better than OPS, but for whatever reason, I don't want to let the cat out of the bag. Seems terribly obvious to me how one should truly measure an offensive player's production, but I've never seen this metric used before.
 
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sorry guys, had planned to be on all weekend, but a nice hard drive crash kept that from happening. I will PM picks from now on, plus give Funkley the right to draft for me if I don't.

5.10 - Reggie Jackson - OF

Everything this team needs in a cleanup hitter. Left-handed power defined. 563 HR (9th all time), 1702 RBI, 1551 Runs.

More write up after I catch up on reading the thread.

 
.......plus give Funkley the right to draft for me if I don't.

5.10 - Reggie Jackson - OF

Everything this team needs in a cleanup hitter. Left-handed power defined. 563 HR (9th all time), 1702 RBI, 1551 Runs.

More write up after I catch up on reading the thread.
I'll do my best. :thumbup: Nice pick. Reggie was my favorite player as a kid.

 
Walsh getting taken kills me. I really wanted him to anchor my staff, and I thought the lack of a "big name" might let him slide a bit. Guess I was wrong.

 
3 User(s) are reading this topic (0 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)

3 Members: Politician Spock, UCONN, Funkley

:pickle:
sorry...was reading to try to find picks. didn't know I was up. Pick within the minute.
 
Ralph Kiner-OF

Lead league in HR's 7 years in a row. That should give Mickey some "protection".
He's a beast in MVP 2004 also. Played homerun showdown with a bunch of the legend players last night after the family went to bed. :bag: :nerd:
 
Ralph Kiner-OF

Lead league in HR's 7 years in a row. That should give Mickey some "protection".
He's a beast in MVP 2004 also. Played homerun showdown with a bunch of the legend players last night after the family went to bed. :bag: :nerd:
:thumbup: unfortunately my pitchers will proboably look like they are throwing bp/hr derby in this thing (still don't have one).

 
I would think UCONN PM'd someone, unlike myself he has some consideration for you lot.
my bad. I pm'd Cappy a couple lists but kept changing them...never got a final one back to him and wasn't expecting a post-midnight barage of picks. Usually one of the first on (a little later today, f'n Mondays) so figured I'd be safe waiting 'till the morning. My bad if it held us up any.
 
Updated picksROUND ONE1.1 pumpnick -- SP Walter Johnson1.2 Spock -- SP Sandy Koufax1.3 lastresort -- OF Babe Ruth1.4 Capella -- OF Willie Mays1.5 Nipsey -- SP CY Young1.6 Sammy3469 --OF Ted Williams1.7 Pickles -- 1B Lou Gehrig1.8 Harrier -- OF Barry Bonds1.9 Doug B -- OF Stan Musial1.10 bogart -- 2B Rogers Hornsby1.11 Koya -- P Lefty Grove1.12 funkley -- OF Ty Cobb1.13 Kraft -- OF Hank Aaron1.14 UCONN -- OF Mickey Mantle1.15 Spartans -- SS Honus Wagner1.16 LarryBoy -- SP Christy Mathewson2.1 Larryboy -- SP Roger Clemens2.2 Spartans -- SP Pedro Martinez2.3 UCONN -- OF Tris Speaker2.4 Kraft -- OF Joltin' Joe DiMaggio2.5 funkley -- 1B Jimmy Foxx2.6 koya -- 3B Mike Schmidt2.7 Bogart -- OF Rickey Henderson2.8 Doug B -- SP Warren Spahn2.9 Harrier -- SP Grover Cleveland Alexander2.10 Pickles -- OF Frank Robinson2.11 Sammy -- 3B Eddie Matthews2.12 Nipsey -- 2B Joe Morgan2.13 Capella -- 2B/3B/1B/OF Pete Rose2.14 Last Resort - 2B Eddie Collins2.15 Spock - SP Nolan Ryan2.16 Pumpnick - 2B Nap Lajoie3.1 pumpnick -- SP Greg Maddux3.2 Spock -- SP Steve Carlton3.3 lastresort -- 1B Mark McGwire3.4 Capella -- SP Randy Johnson3.5 Nipsey -- OF Joe Jackson3.6 Sammy3469 -- SS/IB Ernie Banks3.7 Pickles -- OF/3B Mel Ott3.8 Harrier -- SP Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown3.9 Doug B -- 3B George Brett3.10 bogart -- OF Billy Hamilton3.11 Koya -- SP Tom Seaver3.12 funkley -- 3B Harmon Killebrew3.13 Kraft -- SP Bob Gibson3.14 UCONN -- 2B Jackie Robinson3.15 Spartans -- SP Hal Newhouser3.16 LarryBoy -- 1B Frank Thomas4.01 LarryBoy -- 2B Charlie Gehringer4.02 Spartans -- OF Carl Yastrzemski4.03 UCONN -- SS Arky Vaughan4.04 Kraft -- 1B George Sisler4.05 Funkley -- SP Juan Marichal4.06 Koya -- OF Ken Griffey Jr.4.07 Bogart -- C Mickey Cochrane4.08 Doug B -- OF Tim Raines4.09 Harrier -- C Mike Piazza4.10 Pickles -- C Yogi Berra4.11 Sammy -- 2B Rod Carew4.12 Nipsey -- 1B/OF Hank Greenberg4.13 Capella -- OF Roberto Clemente4.14 Lastresort -- 3B Wade Boggs4.15 Spock -- 2B Frankie Frisch4.16 Pumpnick -- OF Duke Snider5.1 pumpnick -- SP Carl Hubbell5.2 Spock -- OF Tony Gwynn5.3 lastresort -- OF Al Simmons 5.4 Capella -- C Johnny Bench5.5 Nipsey -- Bob Feller5.6 Sammy3469 -- OF Ed Delahanty5.7 Pickles -- SP Whitey Ford5.8 Harrier -- SP Ed Walsh5.9 Doug B -- 1B Eddie Murray5.10 bogart -- OF Reggie Jackson5.11 Koya -- SS Alex Rodriguez5.12 funkley - 2B Roberto Alomar5.13 Kraft -- SP Jim Palmer5.14 UCONN -- OF Ralph Kiner5.15 Spartans5.16 LarryBoy

 
I think the reason OB% + Slugging % = OPS is simply 'cuz OB% is a part of slugging, but its a part that you can't tell automatically... its just another useless stat...BUT, it puts players on an even playing field since a guy who gets on base .400 will automatically have a slugging % of over .400... and that's assuming he got no extra base hits...a guy who gets 40 home runs in 160 at bats and that is it has a slugging of 1.000 but a OB% of .250... is he more valuable than the guy who has an OB% of .475 and a slugging % of .575?? I would say yes, since the first guys OPS is 1.250 and the second guys is 1.050... The home run every 4 at bats is MUCH more valuable than what ends up being a single every other at bat (with a double or triple or homer every long, long while...)
Honestly, the reason OPS = OBP + SLG is due to laziness. James has shown in short order that even the most rudimentary statistical analysis can reveal some interesting things. Of course he takes it to an extreme, IMO, reducing things to win shares which is only one number, but that's another matter. The problem with OPS is that it merges two dissimilar stats that have no business being merged. The 1.4 correction noted above comes about since SLG is an inherently larger value than OBP. I looked at the distribution of SLG for 2003 (don't ask why not 2004.. long story) for all players and found that most guys have values between .200 and .600, arbitrarily. As for OBP, the range is more like .200 and .400. The average SLG value for all players was about .375 (unweighted for ABs) whereas the average OBP was about .300. Using a simple ratio, we might use a 1.25 correction factor to bring the two stats into accordance with each other, but looking at the top end numbers as a guide, we might consider a value more like 1.5, close to what Neyer suggests.Either way, OPS as it's currently used doesn't really distiguish hitters unless they have very large OPS numbers. For example, Bonds' OPS in '04 was an astounding 1.422, the highest value in baseball history. His OPS number was 0.344 higher than #2 on the list which was Todd Helton. That's telling. Comparing guys with OPS numbers in the .800 range isn't going to tell you much about their productivity whatsoever.Like I said, I have another metric I'm using, and it seems to be a little more logical than OPS, even though I'm sort of a fan of players with big OPS numbers. The point is that OPS correlates well with productivity even if it's a flawed stat.
I realize in part it is due to laziness, but, that being said, I think slugging should be a little bit more important that OB%...give me a guy who gets on base .300 and has slugging of .600 over someone who is .400/.400 any day....of course, those are the extreme, the real questions come at .445/.485 vs .400/.550, then which is better? OPS tells us that the second is .2 better, and I would tend to agree, but it could be argued that the players are probably pretty even, but that is likely why the numbers are added together straight up...See, OPS is comparing both the OB% and the slugging % of multiple players against eachother at one time and givng some sort of quantifiable number to compare them, so multiplying one number is, in essence, using one number more than the other...has a player ever had a OB% higher than his slugging %???
 
has a player ever had a OB% higher than his slugging %???
if you get more total bases from your walks than your extra base hits yes...quick example10 plate appearences1 walk3 singles6 "outs"batting .333slugging .333obp .400ops .733
 
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I don't put a lot of weight on OPS but I find it useful in determining which players are both selective at the plate and can drive a pitch when they choose to hit one. Using it to sort through the players we are drafting here is overkill because all of these guys can hit but it's useful in roto drafts imo. Pickles is a stat man so I'm not going to argue the mathematics involved, I just think it's useful if used as a quick & dirty analysis. Not something to base your draft on.

 
has a player ever had a OB% higher than his slugging %???
if you get more total bases from your walks than your extra base hits yes...quick example10 plate appearences1 walk3 singles6 "outs"batting .333slugging .333obp .400ops .733
has it ever actually happened? I know its possible to happen, but has it happened?
 
has a player ever had a OB% higher than his slugging %???
if you get more total bases from your walks than your extra base hits yes...quick example10 plate appearences1 walk3 singles6 "outs"batting .333slugging .333obp .400ops .733
has it ever actually happened? I know its possible to happen, but has it happened?
Funkley has one he said he'd pm you. I'd assume it's happened quite often (particularly w/ guys that don't play everyday)...plenty of slap-hittters could end up doing this (again, particularly over a limited time).
 
has a player ever had a OB% higher than his slugging %???
if you get more total bases from your walks than your extra base hits yes...quick example10 plate appearences1 walk3 singles6 "outs"batting .333slugging .333obp .400ops .733
has it ever actually happened? I know its possible to happen, but has it happened?
Funkley has one he said he'd pm you. I'd assume it's happened quite often (particularly w/ guys that don't play everyday)...plenty of slap-hittters could end up doing this (again, particularly over a limited time).
Yup. Good BA + Lots of walks + almost no power = high OB & low SLG.
 
has a player ever had a OB% higher than his slugging %???
if you get more total bases from your walks than your extra base hits yes...quick example10 plate appearences1 walk3 singles6 "outs"batting .333slugging .333obp .400ops .733
has it ever actually happened? I know its possible to happen, but has it happened?
Funkley has one he said he'd pm you. I'd assume it's happened quite often (particularly w/ guys that don't play everyday)...plenty of slap-hittters could end up doing this (again, particularly over a limited time).
Yup. Good BA + Lots of walks + almost no power = high OB & low SLG.
I pm'd you the name of a guy whose career OBP was higher than his career slugging. Interested to see if we had the same guy in mind.
 
has a player ever had a OB% higher than his slugging %???
if you get more total bases from your walks than your extra base hits yes...quick example10 plate appearences1 walk3 singles6 "outs"batting .333slugging .333obp .400ops .733
has it ever actually happened? I know its possible to happen, but has it happened?
Funkley has one he said he'd pm you. I'd assume it's happened quite often (particularly w/ guys that don't play everyday)...plenty of slap-hittters could end up doing this (again, particularly over a limited time).
Yup. Good BA + Lots of walks + almost no power = high OB & low SLG.
I pm'd you the name of a guy whose career OBP was higher than his career slugging. Interested to see if we had the same guy in mind.
Yours was good. Mine was a bit further back.
 
has a player ever had a OB% higher than his slugging %???
if you get more total bases from your walks than your extra base hits yes...quick example10 plate appearences1 walk3 singles6 "outs"batting .333slugging .333obp .400ops .733
has it ever actually happened? I know its possible to happen, but has it happened?
Funkley has one he said he'd pm you. I'd assume it's happened quite often (particularly w/ guys that don't play everyday)...plenty of slap-hittters could end up doing this (again, particularly over a limited time).
Yup. Good BA + Lots of walks + almost no power = high OB & low SLG.
I pm'd you the name of a guy whose career OBP was higher than his career slugging. Interested to see if we had the same guy in mind.
Yours was good. Mine was a bit further back.
Seeing how we came up w/ 2 just off the top of our heads I'm sure this has happened many times. Yours was good as well. Not a position you'd expect to see that from.
 
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has a player ever had a OB% higher than his slugging %???
if you get more total bases from your walks than your extra base hits yes...quick example10 plate appearences1 walk3 singles6 "outs"batting .333slugging .333obp .400ops .733
has it ever actually happened? I know its possible to happen, but has it happened?
Some members of the Hall of Fame have done this for their entire careers.
 
sorry guys, had planned to be on all weekend, but a nice hard drive crash kept that from happening. I will PM picks from now on, plus give Funkley the right to draft for me if I don't.

5.10 - Reggie Jackson - OF

Everything this team needs in a cleanup hitter. Left-handed power defined. 563 HR (9th all time), 1702 RBI, 1551 Runs.

More write up after I catch up on reading the thread.
Reggie was my swing pick, was going to bat him #5 behind Aaron. He was definitely the best power guy left out there.
 
anyone not in the draft (or that is in the draft) that I can throw my thoughts on picks at and see if I'm dumb? lolI just wanna make sure I'm not thinking too crazy...(I wish there was some other time something like this was done to know who and what to pick, ya know?)

 
I love the Kiner pick - I was debating him myself, but I just did not need another power guy right now. Hi HRs/AB are up there with Ruth... really amazing .I do wonder how much of it had to do with the park (I know they moved the fences in right before Kiner got there) - but to lead the league in HRs SEVEN STRAIGHT years?Wow.Not bad getting on base, either.

 
UCONN - you will be the experiment for killer lineup, no pitching I guess.
I also dont think the FFA is going to give Arky nor Kiner there do - which doesnt affect my picks much and probably does not yours, either. Very underated and overlooked players.
 
UCONN - you will be the experiment for killer lineup, no pitching I guess.
I definately missed out on the legendary pitching. Gonna have to try to be solid 1-10 as opposed to having a couple of unbelievable guys at the top. Gonna be fun to try. LB you can pm me your thoughts if you'd like. I'm obviously no expert, but I'll give you my honest opinions.
 
Spartans PMd me... he picks:

Harry Heilmann (OF)

(I have his next pick after larry goes, too)
Great top of the lineup hitter, my lack of pop at first base wouldn't afford me the option of taking him in an OF slot. Excellent pick!
 
Spartans PMd me... he picks:

Harry Heilmann (OF)

(I have his next pick after larry goes, too)
Great top of the lineup hitter, my lack of pop at first base wouldn't afford me the option of taking him in an OF slot. Excellent pick!
Apparantly he had awful defense... can anyone support/contradict this?UCONN - I still see a few guys out there that while not legendary could hold their own at least. Curious to see if you will grab one, or really take chances and see what is there later.

I am a big proponent of pitching as you know, so curious to see how it turns out.

 
Spartans PMd me... he picks:

Harry Heilmann (OF)

(I have his next pick after larry goes, too)
Great top of the lineup hitter, my lack of pop at first base wouldn't afford me the option of taking him in an OF slot. Excellent pick!
Apparantly he had awful defense... can anyone support/contradict this?UCONN - I still see a few guys out there that while not legendary could hold their own at least. Curious to see if you will grab one, or really take chances and see what is there later.

I am a big proponent of pitching as you know, so curious to see how it turns out.
yup...the rest of the draft will be interesting. I've got my "core" group of hitters.1. Arky (L)

2. Jackie ®

3. Tris (L)

4. Mickey (S)

5. Kiner ®

too great OBP guys at the top who can also run, all around great hitter/baserunner at the 3 spot, Mickey cleaning up, and the big right handed bat behind him. You never get to face a guy you've got the righty/righty or lefty/lefty advantage twice in a row against me so far. I think that's a plus.

 
Spartans PMd me... he picks:

Harry Heilmann (OF)

(I have his next pick after larry goes, too)
Great top of the lineup hitter, my lack of pop at first base wouldn't afford me the option of taking him in an OF slot. Excellent pick!
Apparantly he had awful defense... can anyone support/contradict this?UCONN - I still see a few guys out there that while not legendary could hold their own at least. Curious to see if you will grab one, or really take chances and see what is there later.

I am a big proponent of pitching as you know, so curious to see how it turns out.
yup...the rest of the draft will be interesting. I've got my "core" group of hitters.1. Arky (L)

2. Jackie ®

3. Tris (L)

4. Mickey (S)

5. Kiner ®

too great OBP guys at the top who can also run, all around great hitter/baserunner at the 3 spot, Mickey cleaning up, and the big right handed bat behind him. You never get to face a guy you've got the righty/righty or lefty/lefty advantage twice in a row against me so far. I think that's a plus.
Cant argue with that core, as far as hitting. But my team can hardly wait to see your number one.. Sid Hernandez... on the mound. :P (By the way UCONN, I saw an interesting debate on a message board about Mantle vs. Schmidt. Beforehand, I wouldnt even have put Schmidt in the same breath as Mantle, but apparantly he gets much much love in baseball circles. I wonder what others feel, because I was not as sure about Schmidt when I chose him as I am now that Ive seen more detail. Mostly how awful his era was for hitting in general. I still would rather have Mantle personally, but apparantly there are enough out there who actually would go Schmidt. what do you think?)

 
I have been debating IRod for a while. I love his speed at catcher. Yount was there on the list, and one of the reasons I was so happy with A Rod. Yount is a top 5 shortstop according to many. But his #s pale compared to A Rods.I am also interested to see Yount go now and not after someone not yet picked. When I took a SS, I thought that could be the start of a SS run - I dont see how many if any worth their weight on offense will be around NEXT round.

 
5.16Ivan "Pudge" RodriguezBats: Right Throws: RightPlayed: 1991-currentLived: 1971-currentPlayed for: Texas Rangers (1991-2002), Florida Marlins (2003), Detroit Tigers (2004-current)best years: 2004 32 DET AL 135 527 72 176 32 2 19 86 7 4 41 91 .334 .383 .510 269 0 4 6 3 152000 28 TEX AL 91 363 66 126 27 4 27 83 5 5 19 48 .347 .375 .667 242 0 6 5 1 17 1999 27 TEX AL 144 600 116 199 29 1 35 113 25 12 24 64 .332 .356 .558 335 0 5 2 1 31 1998 26 TEX AL 145 579 88 186 40 4 21 91 9 0 32 88 .321 .358 .513 297 0 3 4 3 18 1997 25 TEX AL 150 597 98 187 34 4 20 77 7 3 38 89 .313 .360 .484 289 1 4 7 8 18Accomplishments/Awards:1 time AL MVP (1999)3 other times Top 10 AL MVP (1996, 1998, 2004)11-time All Star (1992-2001, 2004)11-time AL Gold Glove Winner (1992-2001, 2004)1 time NLCS MVP (2003)World Series Champion (2003)He's not the greatest hitter, but I didn't pick him to be a great hitter... Although batting over .300 for his career, he is a good enough hitter that he won't be a hinderence to my offense.He is, however, the most decorated Defensive Catcher in MLB History. He has more gold gloves than any other Catcher ever, plus that MVP in 1999. A great player, a great leader, as was seen in Florida in 2003. He is a great addition to this team.

 
I was looking at Jackson too, but strikes out WAY too much. In the right lineup, talk about a presence. But, with Schmidt (also from the same era... lower overages in general and power was not so easy to come by either!), and to a lesser degree A Rod and Griff, I did not want another K machine in the lineup. It doesnt get more clutch than Reggie though. Underated a little in the outfield too... although he was no Joe D. in the outfield.

 

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