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Buffalo @ N.Y. Jets
Team Totals: Bills 23.5, Jets 21.5
Few players possess the raw upside of Josh Allen, but there’s no denying this is an imposing road spot. Last year’s QB3 in points per game, Allen struggled mightily as a passer in two dates with Robert Saleh’s Jets defense. Allen went a combined 34 for 61 passing (56%) for 352 yards (5.8 YPA) and a 1:2 TD:INT ratio. He saved his fantasy results with rushing lines of 9/86/2 and 10/47/1. 2022’s Jets allowed the NFL’s sixth-fewest fantasy points and fewest touchdown passes to quarterbacks. Allen is obviously still a must-start in season-long leagues, but I’d consider downgrading him to a mid-range QB1 here. … Trendy breakout candidate James Cook didn’t handle a single carry inside the 5-yard line as a rookie and was pulled for Damien Harris at the goal line this preseason. Cook is going to have to get there with big plays, something which he is capable of doing after averaging 5.7 yards per carry in 2022. Allen, Harris, and Latavius Murray are better bets for scoring-position work, and Allen has never targeted running backs frequently. The Jets surrendered the NFL’s fifth-fewest rushing touchdowns to running backs last season. … On one-game DFS slates, I slightly prefer more-talented Harris to 33-year-old Murray but love neither.
Stefon Diggs has eclipsed 100 catches and 1,200 yards in all three of his seasons in Buffalo, averaging 9.7 touchdowns per year with overall WR3, WR8, and WR3 finishes. 2023 is Diggs’ age-30 campaign, but he’s showing no signs of slowdown after finishing fifth in the NFL in yards per route run last season. The Jets did hold him to 5/93/0 and 3/37/0 stat lines in last year’s two meetings. Keyed by their elite corner tandem of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, the 2022 Jets allowed the league’s fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. I’m downgrading Diggs into low-end WR1 territory based on this difficult draw. … Gabe Davis is a tough Week 1 sell outside of single-game DFS tournaments after managing 2022 stat lines of 2/33/0 and 3/31/0 against the Jets. He should still play above 80% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps as the team’s clear-cut No. 2 wideout. … The Bills’ No. 3 receiver role remains unsettled and may simply wind up as a rotation involving Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty, and Khalil Shakir. First-round TE Dalton Kincaid figures to eventually take over as Buffalo’s No. 3 pass option but will be a rotational weapon to begin the year. … In-line TE Dawson Knox projects for a larger early-season playing-time rate than Kincaid but topped 70 yards just once all last year and was 2022’s TE26 through Week 13 before scoring in four straight games to close out the season. His nine red-zone targets ranked a lowly 19th among tight ends.
After finishing as fantasy’s QB23 last season, Aaron Rodgers links back up with OC Nathaniel Hackett, with whom Rodgers won back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021. Devoid of rushing ability at age 39, AR12 will probably have to hit 35-40 touchdown passes to regain QB1 fantasy worth. The Jets played at a snail’s pace this preseason and have an underwhelming 21.5 team total for Week 1. Last year’s Bills yielded the NFL’s seventh-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. … I’m taking a wait-and-see approach to the Jets’ Week 1 backfield. With Breece Hall coming off ACL/meniscus surgery, the Jets signed Dalvin Cook to a one-year, $7 million deal that suggests he’s going to be more than New York’s No. 2 back and could even pace the backfield in Monday night touches. I’m valuing both as RB3/flex options here.
Garrett Wilson led all rookies in catches and yards in 2022 en route to an 83/1,103/4 receiving line and Rookie of the Year honors. He posted 75-plus yards in eight of 17 games despite quarterback play from a motley crew of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White, and Chris Streveler. Last year’s Bills coughed up the NFL’s seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers. On a one-for-one basis in this game, I think Wilson is even with Diggs. … Following Corey Davis’ retirement, Allen Lazard is locked into Jets No. 2 wideout duties. As Rodgers’ de facto No. 1 in Green Bay last season, Lazard led the Packers in targets (100), catches (60), and yards (788) with six end-zone trips. Yet he hit 80 yards in a game just twice all year. Lazard isn’t a viable season-long league starter but can be fired up confidently in one-game DFS. … Randall Cobb and Mecole Hardman round out Gang Green’s noteworthy sub-package wide receiver options. Cobb is 33, and I could envision Rodgers getting frustrated with mistake-prone Hardman pretty quickly. … Tyler Conklin out-snapped C.J. Uzomah 77% to 53% last season and drew 60 more targets. Both remain TD-or-bust prayer plays. Conklin has scored just seven career touchdowns in 81 games.
Score Prediction: Jets 23, Bills 21
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