*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (3 Viewers)

[facook]

Steelers home on MNF

Probably Tomlin's sickest ATS is home/MNF. A lot of experience in that spot as well.

I wanna play the Steelers, but...

First off.. sick trend.
Second off.. bro. Where'd you get that sick trend.
Third off, bro I probably discovered that trend.
Fourth off.. Bro. Fourth off. "After the 49ers?" What does that even mean? Jerry Rice is rolling over in his grave rn bro. With his Samsung.

I got it from this magical place called X. Teams are 1-16 straight up the week after playing the 49ers in the last 17 games. I guess cause they're so physical. Which could mean Pitt covers and loses, but it's a small margin for error.

 

[Angry Beavers]

Nyy/Pit Under this evening

 

[facook]

Little worried about the Hoos side, but playing Maryland/UVA over 48 tonight.

 

[facook]

My best play of the weekend was a boosted pick 5 at Underdog that payed 25-1. Shedeur over/under 2.5 passing td's was the boost. Played yes td's on 4 other players that were super high faves to score a td (via betonline). I'll see if I can cook up another one next week and post it.​

​

Shedeur Sanders​

Lower - 2.5 Passing TDs

COL 36 vs NEB 14 - 9/09/23 9:00AM
2 Passing TDs

Roman Wilson​

Higher - 0.5 Receiving TDs

MICH 35 vs UNLV 7 - 9/09/23 12:30PM
2 Receiving TDs

Bucky Irving​

Higher - 0.5 Rushing TDs

ORE 38 - TT 30 - 4th Quarter
1 Rushing TDs

Audric Estime​

Higher - 0.5 Rushing TDs

ND 45 @ NCST 24 - 9/09/23 9:00AM
2 Rushing TDs

Dorian Singer​

Higher - 0.5 Receiving TDs

USC 56 - STA 10 - 4th Quarter
1 Receiving TDs
Entry Id: 6654f5f1-b57f-4e74-ac6b-c896ad56fcf9

Parlays are bad bets. That being said, if you are on Underdog.com or Prize Picks or another such site that offers "pickem" parlays:

Kaleb Johnson (Iowa) over .5 rushing td
Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona) over - 0.5 Receiving TDs
Xavier Worthy (Texas) over - 0.5 Receiving TDs
Chez Mellusi (Wisconsin) over - 0.5 Rushing TDs
Jermaine Burton (Alabama) Over - 0.5 Receiving TDs

20-1 odds at Underdog. At betonline, without the "method" designation, that parlay only pays +250.

Also removed Melusi ("only" -200 odds) and played the four person parlay at 10-1, which would be +143 at betonline.

 

[swirvenirvin]

miss chain stories

 

[ChainsawU]

You have Prime on Gameday in a white puffy vest, shades, and a white Stetson hat. Then somebody said,
"You know what else this Gameday needs? Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson!" That's a LOT of ham, bro.

 

[ChainsawU]

Parlays are bad bets.

It's wild we spent all that time, all those years, when "same game" parlays were forbidden, and now you see them everywhere.

 

[Raging weasel]

I know parlays are a bad/sucker bet but probably 80% of my bets are parlays. Don't have the bankroll to bet a bunch of single games at negative odds so try for at least +100.
Maryland -14
Kansas St -3.5
Washington -16.5
Boosted to +760

 

[Cowboysfan8]

know parlays are a bad/sucker bet

Blasphemy

 

[Raging weasel]

I know parlays are a bad/sucker bet but probably 80% of my bets are parlays. Don't have the bankroll to bet a bunch of single games at negative odds so try for at least +100.
Maryland -14
Kansas St -3.5
Washington -16.5
Boosted to +760

Hedged K St to St least come out up a little.
Need Purdue +2.5 to cash 4 legger at +605 so hedged with Syracuse+1

 

[got_nugs]

Yall remember that one time when Goo hit mortgage payments for a year when that dude in the UM/MSU game tried punting...and failed real bad? That was 8 flipping years ago. Crazy. Anyways...who's got the overs we should root for?

 

[Cowboysfan8]

who's got the overs we should root for?

Receptions

Keenan o6.5
Gibbs o3.5
Ferguson o2.5


+507

 

[Raging weasel]

Alternate spread parlay
49ers -5.5
Dallas -6
Boosted to +225

$1 dart throw anytime TD mega parlay
Cmac,J Gibbs,Diggs,Ridley,K Allen,M Evans,Barkley. +20144

 

[Cowboysfan8]

who's got the overs we should root for?

Receptions

Keenan o6.5
Gibbs o3.5
Ferguson o2.5


+507

 

[ChainsawU]

Back when they were world beaters, anytime Miami came up on the schedule, especially in hot *** road games, it was basically just a second bye week for the Pats/exhibition game - total disrespect on Belichick's part, probably not even preparing. Probably focusing on the next opponent all week and not even wanting to get his hands dirty, much less try and win the game. Things have changed.

 

[ChainsawU]

49ers -5.5
Dallas -6

money nice

 

[ChainsawU]

Were Giants on the W2 overreaction list god dang

 

[ChainsawU]

Wonder how many ML parlays are ending with Cleveland tomorrow. Yo What's that Vegas pick'em contest that's always a good fade? Thousands of entries. Survivor pick'em?

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Waddle td
Zeke 10+ rec yds
Parker u39.5
Stevenson o19.5 rec yds

+900

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Bourne 1st td

 

[bcat01]

With Burrow possibly injured the Rams are still getting 6.5 points next Monday.

 

[facook]

Wonder how many ML parlays are ending with Cleveland tomorrow. Yo What's that Vegas pick'em contest that's always a good fade? Thousands of entries. Survivor pick'em?

Giants were second most picked team in the big Circa Survivor contest in Vegas. And in a pretty big one I'm in outside of Vegas. We has 14% kicked out yesterday between Denver, Detroit, and Chargers.

 

[ChainsawU]

Team Totals: Browns 21, Steelers 18.5

Totaled below 40 points, Browns-Steelers is a game to fade in most fantasy lineup decisions. … In rain-soaked conditions versus Cincinnati, Deshaun Watson did little to quiet speculation in Week 1 that he’s no longer the quarterback he was in Houston after so much time away. Watson’s dual-threat ability still elevated him to Week 1’s overall QB5 finish on the back of 5/45/1 rushing. After the 49ers did whatever they wanted to the Steelers’ defense on Opening Day, I’m sticking with Watson as a locked-and-loaded QB1 starter. … Nick Chubb (49%) only narrowly out-snapped Jerome Ford (41%) in last Sunday’s win over the Bengals, yet Chubb pasted Cincinnati for his 29th career 100-yard rushing game. For Week 2, Chubb’s matchup got a colossal boost when the Steelers placed six-time Pro Bowl DT Cam Heyward (groin) on I.R. The 49ers all-out dominated on interior run plays after Heyward’s Opening Day exit.

Watson’s Week 1 targets: Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore 7; Chubb 4; David Njoku 3; Donovan Peoples-Jones, Marquise Goodwin, and Harrison Bryant 2; David Bell and Jordan Akins 1. … Cooper projects to see a lot of 33-year-old Patrick Peterson after PatPete got dog walked by Brandon Aiyuk in Week 1. Even after his slow opener, Cooper is a rock-solid WR2 play at Pittsburgh. … Moore paced the Browns with 43 receiving yards against the Bengals, running 64% of his routes from the slot. Moore is a WR3/flex option here. … Deep threat Peoples-Jones drew a team-high 15.5-yard aDOT in Week 1 but caught just one pass. I want to see improvement from Watson before backing DPJ. … Njoku logged a 73% Week 1 snap rate but was a passing-game non-factor in a game Cleveland dominated from start to finish. Nothing about Njoku’s Week 2 matchup stands out, yet he remains TE1 playable at Pittsburgh.

Manhandled by the 49ers last Sunday, the Steelers now draw a ferocious Browns pass rush featuring Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith that hit Joe Burrow 10 times on 33 dropbacks in Week 1. Only six QBs had worse Opening Day passer ratings than Kenny Pickett’s 68.4 mark, and Pickett is now missing safety blanket Diontae Johnson (hamstring) for up to a month. Cleveland’s D/ST is a recommended play. … Buried on the scoreboard early in Week 1, neither Najee Harris nor Jaylen Warren had a chance to get going. The distribution was very Melvin Gordon-Austin Ekelerish with Harris logging a 52% snap rate to Warren’s 40% and only six more pass routes than Warren. This continues to shake out as a 60-40 split. In Week 1, Cleveland’s defense held Bengals backs to 91 scoreless yards on 21 combined touches.

Pickett’s targets after Johnson’s Week 1 injury: Warren, Allen Robinson, and Calvin Austin 5; Connor Heyward 4; George Pickens 3; Harris 2; Pat Freiermuth and Anthony McFarland 1. … A-Rob ran a route on 46 of 52 Pickett dropbacks (88%), spending 83% of his snaps in the slot. Robinson’s interior role sets him up for layup catches and WR3/flex playability versus Cleveland. … Pickens ran a team-high 48 Week 1 routes. Yet Pickens’ patterns were almost all of the clear-out variety, and Austin stepped in as the direct replacement for Johnson. Pickens’ low-percentage role appears unlikely to change. Austin is entirely startable versus Cleveland. … Freiermuth exited Week 1 with a chest injury after turning his only catch into a 3-yard TD. Heyward and rookie Darnell Washington split time with Freiermuth sidelined. Freiermuth’s status for Week 2 is to be determined.

 

[ChainsawU]

Wonder how many ML parlays are ending with Cleveland tomorrow. Yo What's that Vegas pick'em contest that's always a good fade? Thousands of entries. Survivor pick'em?

Giants were second most picked team in the big Circa Survivor contest in Vegas. And in a pretty big one I'm in outside of Vegas. We has 14% kicked out yesterday between Denver, Detroit, and Chargers.

In two weeks of football, Dolphins over Patriots is the first side I felt the tingle on.

 

[ChainsawU]

I always like to look, and it used to be SBR, but what is the site for seeing public money nowadays? Public money vs number of bets..

 

[ChainsawU]

Team Totals: Saints 21.5, Panthers 17.5

This game’s 40-point total is fifth lowest of Week 2, rendering Saints-Panthers a game to shy away from in fantasy lineup decisions. … Derek Carr averaged an elite 9.2 yards per pass attempt in his New Orleans debut, but the game featured eight field goals and only one touchdown. Carr did exceed 300 passing yards but has done so just five times over his last 26 starts. Destroyed by the Titans in Week 1, Saints LT Trevor Penning now faces Panthers EDGE Brian Burns, who feasted on Desmond Ridder last week, accruing 1.5 sacks and three pressures on Ridder’s 22 dropbacks. You could do worse than streaming Carolina’s D/ST here. Lacking rushing value, Carr is always a low-ceiling QB2. … Without Alvin Kamara (suspension) and Kendre Miller (hamstring), Jamaal Williams logged 75% of New Orleans’ Week 1 offensive snaps, handling 18 of 19 backfield carries and both running back targets. I’m guessing we won’t see Miller until Week 3. After running in place against Tennessee’s impenetrable defensive front, Williams’ Week 2 matchup is far more favorable; Carolina hemorrhaged 25/131/2 rushing to Falcons RBs last week, plus 9/46/1 receiving. Williams is an exciting RB2 starter, especially on one-game DFS slates.

Carr’s Week 1 targets: Chris Olave 10; Michael Thomas 8; Rashid Shaheed 6; Juwan Johnson 5; Williams 2; Taysom Hill and Keith Kirkwood 1. … OC Pete Carmichael is manufacturing touches for Olave, who banked 8/112/0 receiving as Week 1’s overall WR14. After manning the slot just 34% of the time as a rookie, Olave ran over 42% of his routes inside against Tennessee. Only Tyreek Hill (6.1), Brandon Aiyuk (4.3), and teammate Shaheed (3.6) averaged more yards per route run than Olave’s 3.5. His matchup gets a boost with Panthers top CB Jaycee Horn (hamstring) gone to I.R. … Thomas ran a team-high 35 routes in Week 1’s win, seeing a team-high three red-zone targets and the Saints’ only two looks inside the opposing 10-yard line. I love Thomas as a single-game DFS play. … Speedster Shaheed led the Saints in Week 1 aDOT (16.5 yards) and scored the game’s lone touchdown from 19 yards out. He played 54% of the team’s offensive snaps, operating as New Orleans’ clear No. 3 wideout behind Olave and Thomas. … Johnson (75%) out-snapped both Foster Moreau (49%) and Jimmy Graham (14%) and was the only member of the trio to draw a target. … Hill rushed three times for four yards and failed to catch his lone target on 14% of the snaps. He’s a single-game DFS tournament dart and nothing more at the Panthers.

Carolina’s team total of 17.5 points is Week 2’s fourth lowest. No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young finished as Week 1’s fantasy QB23, nevertheless showing poise amid a supporting cast that is clearly deficient. Young is a poor two-quarterback-league bet against the Saints, who held Ryan Tannehill to last week’s QB30 result. … Miles Sanders doubled up Chuba Hubbard in Week 1 carries (18 to nine) and out-targeted him six to two. Yet Sanders lost a fumble, and ball security has been a longstanding issue for him. Hubbard played on all eight third downs. Carolina’s offensive line is now missing both starting guards with LG Brady Christensen (bicep) out for the year and RG Austin Corbett (knee) on PUP. Sanders is an unexciting RB2.

Young’s Week 1 target distribution: Hayden Hurst 7; Sanders and Terrace Marshall 6; Jonathan Mingo 5; Hubbard, Adam Thielen, and Laviska Shenault 2; Giovanni Ricci 1. … D.J. Chark (hamstring) was inactive for the opener but has a chance to play Monday night after returning to practice on a limited basis this week. … Slot man Thielen operated inside for over 75% of his Week 1 routes but produced an empty 2/12/0 box score with an anemic 4.5-yard aDOT. The 33-year-old looked out of gas in Minnesota last season. … Marshall and Mingo were first and second on the team in Week 1 routes and Air Yards but mostly ran sprints down the sidelines. They’re single-game DFS tournament darts but obviously can’t be trusted in season-long lineups. I did find it notable that Marshall dominated Carolina’s Week 1 Air Yards share (47%). … Hurst ran 27 routes on 42 Young dropbacks and went 5/41/1 as Week 1’s overall TE2. Yet Hurst appeared on just 53% of the Panthers’ offensive snaps and has just six TDs over his last 27 games.

 

[GenX fan]

I always like to look, and it used to be SBR, but what is the site for seeing public money nowadays? Public money vs number of bets..

https://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart

 

[Raging weasel]

SGP boosted 50% on FD
Chubb TD
Watson 28 yards rushing
Browns +4.5
+566

 

[Angry Beavers]

Mickelson: In recovery, not betting on football

Phil Mickelson said he isn't wagering on football games this season as he continues to recover from a gambling addiction in a statement posted to social media Monday.

www.espn.com

You are right - I am not present ... is that an issue?

Carolina +3 and CLE ML - boosted at DK to +115;

Already on Oregon -16.5 after hitting CSU +23 and COL -6.5 (live); Saturday was very good. Sunday was bad.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Saints -3.5
Theilen u34.5
Shaheed o34.5

+475

 

[Raging weasel]

DK no sweat bet
Cle and Saints ML parlay at +203

 

[ChainsawU]

I'm 3-0 on homemade Juicy Lucy's today. Been refining my techniques. The secret? Maybe one day, pal.

 

[facook]

I always like to look, and it used to be SBR, but what is the site for seeing public money nowadays? Public money vs number of bets..

VSIN The Sports Betting Network | VSiN

VSIN is The Sports Betting Network, with expert analysts including Brent Musburger, live Vegas odds, sports betting lines and data for every sport so you can bet on sports with confidence. Watch and listen to VSiN, The Sports Betting Network 24/7 for free or start your subscription free trial...

data.vsin.com

Not sure if this is behind a paywall. If it is let me know. I like it best because it's actual data from Draftkings bettors. All the other ones it is impossible to know what book(s) they are taking the data from.

 

[Angry Beavers]

I always like to look, and it used to be SBR, but what is the site for seeing public money nowadays? Public money vs number of bets..

VSIN The Sports Betting Network | VSiN

VSIN is The Sports Betting Network, with expert analysts including Brent Musburger, live Vegas odds, sports betting lines and data for every sport so you can bet on sports with confidence. Watch and listen to VSiN, The Sports Betting Network 24/7 for free or start your subscription free trial...

data.vsin.com

Not sure if this is behind a paywall. If it is let me know. I like it best because it's actual data from Draftkings bettors. All the other ones it is impossible to know what book(s) they are taking the data from.

Action network Is what I use. It's behind a pay wall but not expensive. HTH

 

[ChainsawU]

this the rubric for greatness right hear

 

[ChainsawU]

Once you turn that passenger seat around and bolt it back down, everything changes. I'm not even plugged in. It's all solar + alternator charging the inside battery. As long as you don't travel beyond cell coverage, it's a living room on wheels. I been everywhere, pal.

 

[ChainsawU]

I am getting a Lyme disease test, per Hoot's recommendation, though. Ever had Lyme Disease?

 

[The Man With No Name]

I am getting a Lyme disease test, per Hoot's recommendation, though. Ever had Lyme Disease?

No, but I've met some Limey's

 

[facook]

Deshaun Watson REALLY wants the overreaction Week 2 narrative to play out in this game.

 

[facook]

I always like to look, and it used to be SBR, but what is the site for seeing public money nowadays? Public money vs number of bets..

VSIN The Sports Betting Network | VSiN

VSIN is The Sports Betting Network, with expert analysts including Brent Musburger, live Vegas odds, sports betting lines and data for every sport so you can bet on sports with confidence. Watch and listen to VSiN, The Sports Betting Network 24/7 for free or start your subscription free trial...

data.vsin.com

Not sure if this is behind a paywall. If it is let me know. I like it best because it's actual data from Draftkings bettors. All the other ones it is impossible to know what book(s) they are taking the data from.

Action network Is what I use. It's behind a pay wall but not expensive. HTH

Do they say where they get their data?

 

[facook]

Once you turn that passenger seat around and bolt it back down, everything changes. I'm not even plugged in. It's all solar + alternator charging the inside battery. As long as you don't travel beyond cell coverage, it's a living room on wheels. I been everywhere, pal.

Chicks not ticks, Chain.

 

[Angry Beavers]

I always like to look, and it used to be SBR, but what is the site for seeing public money nowadays? Public money vs number of bets..

VSIN The Sports Betting Network | VSiN

VSIN is The Sports Betting Network, with expert analysts including Brent Musburger, live Vegas odds, sports betting lines and data for every sport so you can bet on sports with confidence. Watch and listen to VSiN, The Sports Betting Network 24/7 for free or start your subscription free trial...

data.vsin.com

Not sure if this is behind a paywall. If it is let me know. I like it best because it's actual data from Draftkings bettors. All the other ones it is impossible to know what book(s) they are taking the data from.

Action network Is what I use. It's behind a pay wall but not expensive. HTH

Do they say where they get their data?

Various books is all they claim
I use it as something to consider but not the end all be all

 

[The Duff Man]

FD has Nacua as +600 to get 10+ receptions week 3, which I think is around 15% odds.

Isn’t this great value? He had 15 then 20 targets the first two weeks.

 

[KGB]

|Im a simple man.

heres what I like

49ers - 10
Bills - 6.5
Titans my fave
Miami - 7
bears + 12.5 kinda

 

[facook]

Played Giants under 16.5 team total tonight.

 

[Raging weasel]

Cmac TD
Deebo TD and over 50 yards rec
D Jones under 1.5 passing TD
+937

 

[facook]

Rich Harrington @McNarstle

My Monday Night Football betting system is I ask my daughter who she likes and she says “Dad I don’t care” and then I bet the over and it ends 16-3.

 

[facook]

Cmac TD
Deebo TD and over 50 yards rec
D Jones under 1.5 passing TD
+937

DUDE. Nice hit!!

 

[Raging weasel]

Thanks! Was getting anxious on the Deebo TD

 

[Wingnut]

I had a parlay with an anytime Kittle TD.



I'll take the Niner dub tho.