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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (8 Viewers)

Just going to feel good when I wake up in the morning and parlay some days together of making good decisions instead. Five days minimum of good decisions.

 
Bad thing is Seattle sucks, good thing is that only 2 books offer F5 team totals but all other 9 books offer team totals for the game, and K-rod blows

 
Tor -125 - Liriano has been much better since coming off the DL - as long as he keeps his walks down he more than holds his own : 17 Innings, 7 ER, 19K, 5BB - Ill take a chance here. 

Chalk Parlay of STL/Cubs/LAD/Bos

GLTA
AB

 
Have you ever heard of this. A person buys a home with a pool and the day after closing they go to the newly purchased home and see that the previous owner has taken the pool pump with them.

 
ChainsawU said:
Have you ever heard of this. A person buys a home with a pool and the day after closing they go to the newly purchased home and see that the previous owner has taken the pool pump with them.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_(1988_film)

More disaster follows for the Pears. They arrive in Boise to find their new house stripped of not only its cabinetry and appliances, but its doors, stairs, and swimming pool - revealing that the sellers were indeed serious when they said that they were "taking everything with us".

 
Atlanta Braves -110* vs San Francisco Giants  (M Moore - L - Action   J Teheran - R - Action)
New York Mets +185* vs Los Angeles Dodgers  (R Gsellman - R - Action   B McCarthy - R - Action)
Los Angeles Angels +245* vs New York Yankees  (P Bridwell - R - Action   M Pineda - R - Action)
Houston Astros +106* vs Oakland Athletics  (F Martes - R - Action   S Gray - R - Action)
Detroit Tigers +114* vs Seattle Mariners  (J Zimmerman - R - Action   A Miranda - L - Actio

345s

 
6/20/2017 10:05 PM MLB Baseball 975 Houston Astros* +106  vs Oakland Athletics
F Martes - R Listed   S Gray - R Listed
6/20/2017 10:05 PM MLB Baseball 975 Houston Astros/Oakland Athletics* Over 9 -125 
F Martes - R Listed   S Gray - R Listed
11/10/2019 8:00 AM Politics Other Sports 99 Oprah Winfrey wins Presidential Election* +6000  vs Field wins Presidential Election
Risking $2.00 To Win $450.38 

 
Since 2015 Gio's starts have gone 29-13-1 (.690) O/U +$1,460 on 4 days' rest, the most profitable starter/rest combo for the over during that time.

o8½ -125
o9 +105
o10 +150

 
During that same time Teheran starts have gone 17-8-1 (.680) O/U when he's pitching on 5 days' rest. I don't really want to fox with SF right now.

 
Page 3? Jesus, you guys.

Shout out to Goo for taking a big shot. Taking big shots. I had Donaldson too, can't win 'em all.

I like Beltre, Bellinger, and EE early for TB bets.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Page 3? Jesus, you guys.

Shout out to Goo for taking a big shot. Taking big shots. I had Donaldson too, can't win 'em all.

I like Beltre, Bellinger, and EE early for TB bets.
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Meh, 2 unit bet.  Perfect scanario where Texas is hiding Mazara in the 8 spot, 1 extra base hit all year against lefties in 44 ab, then that.  I didn't have Mook last night, too much historical success for Hos against Sale, do you take historical in consideration?  It's one of the smallest variables for me but sample size over 50 ab is relevant imo. 

EE has weak history against Gauscan but he's in poor form lately wow.  Always like Carrasco.  Always like Hill.  Manea gold against lefties but Hou is righty heavy.  Haven't looked at the lines but I know Bellinger is a play, prob Seager too.

 
I don't know what y'alls problem is with 5D props. They let me get a grand down on the Donaldson. Broke even there last night. Just saw the 1H 1R 1RBI that told the story on the prop.

 
Yo I got a new one I can't wait to do. It goes like this. Whenever you meet a woman named after a month of the year, like April. Say, "Hello Miss April. Nineteen eighty nine." I'm just trying to figure out if it'd be workplace appropriate.

 
TheGooRoo said:
Meh, 2 unit bet.  Perfect scanario where Texas is hiding Mazara in the 8 spot, 1 extra base hit all year against lefties in 44 ab, then that.  I didn't have Mook last night, too much historical success for Hos against Sale, do you take historical in consideration?  It's one of the smallest variables for me but sample size over 50 ab is relevant imo. 

EE has weak history against Gauscan but he's in poor form lately wow.  Always like Carrasco.  Always like Hill.  Manea gold against lefties but Hou is righty heavy.  Haven't looked at the lines but I know Bellinger is a play, prob Seager too.
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Rarely consider bat-vs-pitch history. It's fuzzy space, but the next layer I want to peel back is looking closely at strengths/weakenesses re: hitter strengths/weakness vs. pitcher strength/weakness, not just L/R. Haven't had time to go that deep yet what with the dumb civilian job and all.

 
This morning the woman that cuts my hair said "we are all here for a reason" and then just now I accidentally left the door unlocked when an older woman walked in on me when I was done tanning. So I guess that's my reason for being here today. I had my jeans on but it was a wild scene as if she was cool with it because she just looked at me up and down and said, "Damn son I like what I see," and then she took her own boob out of her shirt and started licking it no I am just kidding we both apologized like adults.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Rarely consider bat-vs-pitch history. It's fuzzy space, but the next layer I want to peel back is looking closely at strengths/weakenesses re: hitter strengths/weakness vs. pitcher strength/weakness, not just L/R. Haven't had time to go that deep yet what with the dumb civilian job and all.
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What do you mean by strengths/weakness for hitters and pitchers?  Pitch type?  One thing that I've been giving a lot of thought about is hitters versus a specific pitch type.  You hear for example Ryon Healy is a great fastball hitter.  Look deeper and he is a .150 hitter against off-speed stuff and a .350 hitter against fastball.  Then you have him facing David Holmberg that's 70% curveball and changeup.  By looking at the surface stats that we look at, we may actually back Healy when we should be fading him.  

 
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TheGooRoo said:
What do you mean by strengths/weakness for hitters and pitchers?  Pitch type?  One thing that I've been giving a lot of thought about is hitters versus a specific pitch type.  You hear for example Ryon Healy is a great fastball hitter.  Look deeper and he is a .150 hitter against off-speed stuff and a .350 hitter against fastball.  Then you have him facing David Holmberg that's 70% curveball and changeup.  By looking at the surface stats that we look at, we may actually back Healy when we should be fading him.  
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where the hell do you find this information at?

 
TheGooRoo said:
Meh, 2 unit bet.  Perfect scanario where Texas is hiding Mazara in the 8 spot, 1 extra base hit all year against lefties in 44 ab, then that.  I didn't have Mook last night, too much historical success for Hos against Sale, do you take historical in consideration?  It's one of the smallest variables for me but sample size over 50 ab is relevant imo. 

EE has weak history against Gauscan but he's in poor form lately wow.  Always like Carrasco.  Always like Hill.  Manea gold against lefties but Hou is righty heavy.  Haven't looked at the lines but I know Bellinger is a play, prob Seager too.
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Corey? Kyle?  Both?

 
TheGooRoo said:
What do you mean by strengths/weakness for hitters and pitchers?  Pitch type?  One thing that I've been giving a lot of thought about is hitters versus a specific pitch type.  You hear for example Ryon Healy is a great fastball hitter.  Look deeper and he is a .150 hitter against off-speed stuff and a .350 hitter against fastball.  Then you have him facing David Holmberg that's 70% curveball and changeup.  By looking at the surface stats that we look at, we may actually back Healy when we should be fading him.  
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Yes, pitch type. That's what I was trying to say but I'm pretty dumb.

Guessing Goo was referring to C-Seager, who I find myself backing quite often.

 
Been listening to a lot of the local Phil Steele interviews.  He's telling anyone that will listen to  him that the Florida Michigan game should be closer to PK then +4, fwtiw.

 
The Ref said:
Been listening to a lot of the local Phil Steele interviews.  He's telling anyone that will listen to  him that the Florida Michigan game should be closer to PK then +4, fwtiw.
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I really respect Phil.  He knows more about College Football than I could know in 10 lifetimes.  But if you listen to him on ESPN Behind the Bets pod the last couple of years, he's no better than any of us FFAWT degens at picking games vs. the spread.

 
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facook said:
I really respect Phil.  He knows more about College Football than I could know in 10 lifetimes.  But if you listen to him on ESPN Behind the Bets pod the last couple of years, he's no better than any of us FFAWT degens at picking games vs. the spread.
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while i agree for the most part I would say he is better at these types of bets where there is a potential for a lot of value

 
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